2016 Milwaukee Brewers Positive Post Thread

[LouisEly]

The Brewers didn't trade any of the top three bullpen arms on the team in terms of K/9.

[EauClaireNWL]

I'd say FWIW, the current team has matched last years win total with 13 games to go. For a team that basically tore it down and had no expectations, I'd say it's a positive step in the right direction given last years squad at least to start the year had expectations of being a borderline playoff contender, at least on paper.

[reillymcshane]

Brewers team ERA (4.12) is right at league average (4.15). Same with OPS (Brewer: .733 vs NL at .734).

 

Unfortunately, league average OPS doesn't quite translate into league average runs scored. While we have above average HRs, we lag in runs and batting average. We are 2nd most in the league in walks, which helps our OBP (6th in the NL).

 

We lead the league in SBs by a mile, and our SB% is 2nd in the league.

 

Defense appears to really be killing this team. We have the most errors in all of baseball. Fangraphs puts our defense as the 5th worst rated in the league.

 

Obviously, we won't have Lucroy, Smith and Jeffress next year, but I think there's room to grow.

[FVBrewerFan]

Winning 3/4 in Wrigley counts as a positive any way you slice it.

[JohnBriggs12]

I have a hard time looking at how this team has played since starting the year without wondering some things. Since May 1st (around the date Guerra came up and the rotation became essentially average), the Brewers are just 7 games under .500 at 60-67, this after trading off an All Star catcher and getting no current major league talent back. Think about it. Since February, they traded a guy who's hit 40 HR and driven in 99 runs this season and an All Star catcher at the deadline, got nothing back at the major league level in return and yet they have except for August, the month that followed the Lucroy deal, been essentially a .500 team. Going back to last year, they were also essentially a .500 team after June 1st.

 

It begs the question of whether a complete tear down at the major league level was necessary or even wise. Certainly in cases where players were nearing the end of control years (Gomez, Lucroy), they could have been dealt without announcing to the world essentially that they are backing up the truck by why deal Davis or consider dealing Braun who are still productive and controllable for several more years? Now they still have Braun (barely apparently), but except for Santana, Anderson, and Hill (briefly), none of the players brought back in the major deals so far has hit the big leagues. Yet the talent they've acquired in much lesser fashion by waiver claims (Perez, Guerra, Torres) minor trades (Villar, Broxton), and minor FA signings (Carter) have all proven to be productive major league players with still some upside in some cases.

 

I think it's time to re-assess where they are and start looking to compete instead of looking at every player on their current roster as a potential trade chip for yet more prospects. The farm system has a few spots they need to add to, but they will again be drafting fairly high next year.

[tmwiese55]

Good points and nothing you just said is wrong. But I would argue the rebuild was still the right move on account of not having legit starting pitching (which is what you need to really win big) and that the Cubs/Cards/Pirates are currently so good. As you said we could've continued to trot out a .500ish team since the O was more than adequate and maybe gotten lucky and snagged a WC in the next 3 years. But deep down you knew you had no shot at a title, so might as well go this route and hopefully have a really good team 4 years from now when the Cubs systems hopefully starts to run dry and maybe they run into cap/money problems. Basically your path was the Herb Kohl route for the Bucks that all fans grew to hate.

[TheCrew07]

I think it's time to re-assess where they are and start looking to compete instead of looking at every player on their current roster as a potential trade chip for yet more prospects. The farm system has a few spots they need to add to, but they will again be drafting fairly high next year.

 

Of course you have a time accepting the approach when it runs so counter to your own personal philosophy and I've haven't read a post from you acknowledging that the win now philosophy didn't work out, or at least that the Brewers weren't competitive even during that "great recent run".

 

I will say that once again you cherry picked the example and dismissed the rest of the moves. You aren't looking at moves he has made a whole, or the roster situation, you're focusing on the minor league side.

 

I find your one sided approach frustrating at best, the very fact that the Brewers are averagish after trading so many players actually proves the counter argument to your point. Simply put, that you don't have to hang onto high priced veterans to win.

 

I know this post will have absolutely no affect, that it will continue to all about wins and losses for you ignoring the much larger picture of how to actually build and sustain success, but somehow I'm compelled to beat my head against this wall. It's sad.

[gregmag]

This season has been about three things: acquiring talent, developing talent at the minor league level, and identifying talent at the MLB level.

 

The acquiring piece has gone brilliantly, as other threads have discussed. The developing piece has been a mixed bag, with quite a few major prospects underperforming expectations, but some of that may be due to aggressive placements.

 

The part that I'm most pleasantly surprised about is the identifying piece. We now have a bunch of guys at the MLB level who are young and/or under team control for four or five more years and look like they might be part of the next good Brewers team:

 

Villar

Arcia

Santana

Broxton

Perez

Susac

Pina

 

Guerra

Davies

Nelson

Barnes

Knebel

 

That's a long way from a championship core, and we can reasonably debate whether my list gets all the right guys. I've left off players I expect to be traded in the next year, mainly Gennett and Thornburg. But all the guys on that list have established some level of positive MLB value, and they're all young enough or raw enough to contribute more than they have so far. That's a longer, better list than I would have expected a year ago.

[FVBrewerFan]

It begs the question of whether a complete tear down at the major league level was necessary or even wise.

 

Actually, it doesn't beg the question. But the answer you're looking for is YES. Nobody but you cares if this team could have won 5 or 6 more games this year. Nobody but you is obsessed with the Davis trade.

 

I can be a contrarian at time as well, so just because you're alone doesn't mean you're wrong. I get you are looking for something different than the rest of us. We want to create a roster in the future that can be a legitimate contender. You want to win as many possible games as possible every year. Those two concepts are mutually exclusive.

[monty57]

I find your one sided approach frustrating at best, the very fact that the Brewers are averagish after trading so many players actually proves the counter argument to your point. Simply put, that you don't have to hang onto high priced veterans to win.

 

Very important point made here.

 

We traded away guys who were proven for guys who were unproven, so we were able to stockpile a lot of talented guys in a few trades. In addition to adding lots of prospect talent, this also allowed a mix of talented young players and "rebound potential" veterans to get significant playing time.

 

Net result: We are about the same in the win/loss column as we were prior going into "rebuild mode," but we now have a young, inexpensive team and one of the top two farm systems in baseball, when we had an aging, expensive team with one of the worst farms in baseball.

 

What the Brewer management has accomplished over the past year+ is pretty amazing and bodes well for the future of the franchise.

[LouisEly]

This is the positive post thread. People can say whatever they want - whether you agree with it or not, whether it is realistic or not - so deal with it. Put the criticism in another thread.

 

I saw something that said the Brewers have one of the best team ERAs, if not the best team ERA, in the second half of the season. Considering how many games they have played recently against the Cubs, Cardinals, and Pirates, that's something to be very positive about. Remember, Cubs pitchers don't get to face Cubs hitters, Cardinals pitchers don't get to face Cardinals hitters, etc., so those pitchers have a slight advantage when it comes to comparable stats.

[adambr2]

I have a hard time looking at how this team has played since starting the year without wondering some things. Since May 1st (around the date Guerra came up and the rotation became essentially average), the Brewers are just 7 games under .500 at 60-67, this after trading off an All Star catcher and getting no current major league talent back. Think about it. Since February, they traded a guy who's hit 40 HR and driven in 99 runs this season and an All Star catcher at the deadline, got nothing back at the major league level in return and yet they have except for August, the month that followed the Lucroy deal, been essentially a .500 team. Going back to last year, they were also essentially a .500 team after June 1st.

 

It begs the question of whether a complete tear down at the major league level was necessary or even wise. Certainly in cases where players were nearing the end of control years (Gomez, Lucroy), they could have been dealt without announcing to the world essentially that they are backing up the truck by why deal Davis or consider dealing Braun who are still productive and controllable for several more years? Now they still have Braun (barely apparently), but except for Santana, Anderson, and Hill (briefly), none of the players brought back in the major deals so far has hit the big leagues. Yet the talent they've acquired in much lesser fashion by waiver claims (Perez, Guerra, Torres) minor trades (Villar, Broxton), and minor FA signings (Carter) have all proven to be productive major league players with still some upside in some cases.

 

I think it's time to re-assess where they are and start looking to compete instead of looking at every player on their current roster as a potential trade chip for yet more prospects. The farm system has a few spots they need to add to, but they will again be drafting fairly high next year.

 

You're essentially looking for the same approach as the last 5 years, just with different players. The problem is its never as simple as 'If we still had player X, we'd have X more wins.' I'd challenge that concept by pointing out that we had Braun, Lucroy, Smith and Jeffress all last season, and still didn't win 70 games, so I don't know how you think the same old approach with an 85 win ceiling is the best way.

 

The fact that we are winning more games than last year in spite of the rebuild is a good thing, not a bad thing. It reinforces the rebuild, it doesn't detract from it. More wins than 2015, only now we have added Villar, Broxton, and Guerra at the MLB level, and added Brinson, Ray, Ortiz, Bickford, Hader, and Phillips to our farm because of our decision to rebuild?

 

Look at our top prospects. Had we decided to stay the course on trying to compete every year and traded for no prospects, our top prospects right now would be Trent Clark and Gilbert Lara (assuming our 2015 record was better as a result and thus Ray did not fall to us.) That's a pretty bare system with little hope for the future if we don't win now. And let's be honest, we could add Lucroy and Davis back to this lineup, and add Mike Trout for good measure, and we still aren't catching the Cubs.

 

So your plan is contingent on the pitching staff doing enough to get 85 wins, contingent on that being enough to sneak in, and then contingent on winning a 1 game playoff just to reach the NLDS? No thanks, I'll stick with Stearns' plan.

 

I'd even argue that this is actually a good time for the Brewers to be rebuilding in this division. The Cubs are so dominant right now that there's probably no realistic chance of catching them for a few years. Now once their team starts to age a bit, we might start to see a few cracks in the armor by 2018 or 2019 if some of their pitching prospects in the low minors don't start to break out by then. They have a dominant, but very old rotation, and particularly if they lose Arrieta after 2017, there's going to have to be some retooling in that rotation soon.

[tmwiese55]

12 games to go in the season and we're still technically alive for the playoffs. Who would've thought that at the beginning of the year.

 

This from their ticket holder emails today:

 

"A stretch of 17 games over 17 days -- 14 of which are on the road -- is a daunting task at any point, but when you add the fact that all 17 games are against divisional opponents, most of whom are battling for a spot in October, you are looking at an especially challenging stretch. Yet, after going into Wrigley Field and taking three of four games from the team with the best record in baseball, the Brewers have emerged from that formidable stretch with a record of 11-6."

[adambr2]

A 7-5 finish would give them 75 wins for the year. I'd have to go back and look at the prediction thread but I think that would surpass most predictions .

[MrTPlush]

It would actually be pretty cool to win 75 games. Build on that a bit and suddenly you are .500 next year.

[pacopete4]

A 7-5 finish would give them 75 wins for the year. I'd have to go back and look at the prediction thread but I think that would surpass most predictions .

 

 

I predicted 76 wins so I need 8-4! Although I predicted hot start, then cool down. Either way it'd be fun to be spot on.

[JohnBriggs12]

70 and counting! Its possible the Brewers will end up within 10-12 games of both wild card participants having dealt an All Star catcher at the deadline and a 40+ and 100+ RBI bat just prior to ST. Which proves my point that you never know when playoffs are going to be right there for you. Giving up before any season rubs me the wrong way. Attanasio while pleased with progress this year essentially threw in the towel for 2017 the other night. Just no reason to do that.

[homer]

Giving up before any season rubs me the wrong way. .

 

Really? We hadn't noticed.

[adambr2]

70 and counting! Its possible the Brewers will end up within 10-12 games of both wild card participants having dealt an All Star catcher at the deadline and a 40+ and 100+ RBI bat just prior to ST. Which proves my point that you never know when playoffs are going to be right there for you. Giving up before any season rubs me the wrong way. Attanasio while pleased with progress this year essentially threw in the towel for 2017 the other night. Just no reason to do that.

 

Being within 12 games of the Wild Card is having the playoffs right there for you?

[logan82]

70 and counting! Its possible the Brewers will end up within 10-12 games of both wild card participants having dealt an All Star catcher at the deadline and a 40+ and 100+ RBI bat just prior to ST. Which proves my point that you never know when playoffs are going to be right there for you. Giving up before any season rubs me the wrong way. Attanasio while pleased with progress this year essentially threw in the towel for 2017 the other night. Just no reason to do that.

 

Being within 12 games of the Wild Card is having the playoffs right there for you?

If we had both those guys we could have totally been with 8-10 games instead. What a waste to trade both of them.

[LouisEly]

9 of Peralta's last 10 starts were quality starts. The 2nd half ERAs of the starters:

 

Peralta - 2.92

Guerra - 2.29 (only 39 innings)

Anderson - 3.02

Garza - 4.16

Davies - 3.82

(Nelson - 6.10 - 6th starter/AAA)

 

The 2017 bullpen - even without Jeffress/Smith - could look like this (with their 2016 full-season ERA):

 

Thornburg - 2.15

Torres - 2.73

Cravy - 2.86

Barnes - 2.70

Marinez - 3.22

Suter - 3.32

Knebel - 4.83

(Blazek - 5.56)

 

While it's likely (hopeful?) that if Guerra, Garza and Torres are pitching this well next July they will be traded (if not sooner), it's quite possible that great seasons from Nelson and Blazek won't be needed to have a good pitching staff.

 

Also, save your criticisms re: advanced metrics or anything else for another thread. This is the positive post thread.

[stalton]

I have to say that without the major expectations of success, this was a very fun season. We have acquired so much more talent on the horizon and beyond. We got to see some unexpected successes (Villar, Broxton, guerra) and yes even though they had some ugly things going on, it seemed like a good year.