Rating or Assessment of the Draft

[foamboy1]

I apologize in advance if this should be place in one of the other threads, but I'm wondering if there is someone that rates/assesses each teams draft? This happens in other major sport drafts, as ESPN, CNNSI, etc. will grade each team's draft, etc.

 

I look at the collection of players, knowing very few of them of course and wonder how we did. Did we do anything differently in terms of draft strategy this year than in the past? How did we do relative to expectations? Any "interesting" picks?

 

I know the MLB draft is a crapshoot and projecting these guys is really difficult. I guess I'm wondering if someone actually does this?

[geothite]

In the past Baseball America has graded drafts a few days afterwards. Also provide a few neat insights and articles.

This year nothing. I wonder if this is the impact of the losses to PG site.

[colbyjack]

Baseball America typically don't issue their draft reports cards until later in the summer/early fall. They have done a few short stories that breaks down the best/worst drafts by a quick glance.

 

I hope to offer some detailed thoughts on the Brewers draft within the next week or two. I definitely have some thoughts I would like to share, I just haven't had the time to type it out yet.

[Never Outhustled]

In a recent BA chat, John Manuel rated the Brewers draft in his top 3, along with Arizona and Cleveland. He loves 3rd rounder Cole Gillespie.

[colbyjack]

I too am a big fan of the Gillespie pick, which I've made evident before.

 

It's pretty amazing that the Brewers already have 22 of their draft picks signed, and most of those came within days of the draft. It's clear they targeted players they knew they could get into their system quickly at the slots they selected them. Gillespie should be in the fold within a week or two (if that long) from tomorrow, the final game of the CWS. I think they may convince Chad Robinson to go the JC route, meaning 16th round pick RJ Seidel will probably be the first player these lose (I don't think they talk him out of his Arkansas commitment).

[Never Outhustled]

Generally, quick signings are cheap signings, and like Patrick has said, the Brewers had alot of quick signings. It helped that they drafted numerous college seniors. Also, Jeffress got $50,000 less than slot value. With the money they're saving, I think we should really expect them to sign 1 of the 3 picks they made of guys with high round talent that fell. 16th rounder RJ Seidel, 18th rounder Andrew Clark, and 19th rounder Lee Haydel would all really finish off this draft, and the team will have to pony up t get one of them. If they don't land any of them, than I guess the team cheaped out this year.

[brewmann04]

Good news on Robinson and to bad it looks bad for Siedel

i figured maybe since he freom Wisconsin he might sign with the crew

[hyerbro1]

The other player that Manuel mentioned by name in the chat was Chad Robinson. Later in the chat he mentions an upcoming feature on Gallardo. He also says that the Brewers are loaded with pitching prospects at the lower levels.

[UWRyan428]

I think we all knew that. Rogers, Inman, and LOW LEVEL Jeffress are all very high ceiling pitchers. Double-A Yo is at the forefront. Parra and Jones are back to the slow and steady approach. Wapepah and Hammond both look like they are going to be valuable. We could become the NEW Dodgy Fellows.

[plowjockey]

Quote:

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If they don't land any of them, than I guess the team cheaped out this year.

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2 things: 1 - Don't forget the huge signing bonuses paid to the latin pitchers this year. They didn't "cheap out" there. I know it's in lieu of having an academy, but it was still significant money. 2 - If they stay in the race this year, keeping Lee and Ohka, and maybe trading a couple of nice prospects for a pitcher at the end of his contract, there will be 6 maybe 8 picks in the top 90 players next year that have to be signed. That money will not magically show up, it has to be in budget plans now.

[colbyjack]

I remember when people said the team went cheap last year, and how they went cheap in '02 when guys like Page, Hernandez, White, etc. all went to (or back to) college despite the team dropping $2.4 million in Prince (whom they thought they could sign for $2.2 million, thanks a heap Detroit Tigers/Scott Moore for driving up the slot value) and $1.55 million in Manny Parra. The Brewers have never been cheap when it comes to the draft under Jack Zduriencik, and the trio of Seidel, Clark & Haydel could be a similar trio to Drew Bowman, Ty Pryor and Sean Morgan two years ago, a year when they dropped over $5 million in Rickie Weeks.

 

I've been told directly that the money from one year doesn't automatically roll over to the next year. The draft budget changes from year to year, and with the Brewers being more successful at the big-league level and drafting lower, a million rolled over into the big-league club could be the difference for picking up a key reliever at the deadline. As plowjockey noted, the team could continue to spend big on the international market, or they could be saving for a rainy day next year if they have a few extra picks to invest in.

 

I will say for all of the risks in regards to potential the Brewers scouting department takes, they certainly don't take many risks when it comes to selecting & signing players in the top 10 rounds.

[colbyjack]

Somewhat related to the topic at hand, John Manuel of BA has a nice story on some of the more intriguing names available on the Latin American free agent market, which opens tomorrow. It will be interesting to see how much the Brewers get involved this year.

 

www.baseballamerica.com/t...61865.html

 

International Signing Season Set To Open

Top prospects seeking seven-figure signing bonuses

 

By John Manuel

 

As the July 2 start date for international free agent signings approached, word continued to spread through the scouting community that clubs were ready to spend significant amounts once again in Latin America for premium talent.

 

That would leave the industry picking up where it left off last year, when clubs such as the Braves, Rockies, Brewers, Rangers and Mets were among those using six- and seven-figure signing bonuses to sign players out of the primary Latin American hotbeds of the Dominican Republic and Venezuela. The Mets made the biggest splash last year, signing outfielder Fernando Martinez ($1.4 million) and righthander Deolis Guerra ($700,000) for two of the largest bonuses of the year.

 

This year's top targets include some big names, both in terms of length and in terms of big league name recognition. Dominican catcher Francisco Pena has received the most attention, as the youngest son of former big leaguer Tony Pena, now a coach with the Yankees. Pena has been pursued by teams such as the Yankees, Mets, Nationals and Reds, and rumors swirled that he was expected to sign for a bonus as large as $2 million. At 6-foot-2, 200 pounds, Pena has power and arm strength behind the plate, like his father. He's not considered as athletic as his dad or brother, Tony Pena Jr., now a shortstop in the Braves system.

 

One international scouting director termed Pena's body as "heavy and thick." Marlins catcher Miguel Olivo, who knows the Pena family well, told the Kansas City Star in a recent interview that Pena "throws almost as well as me, and he has good size. I knew from seeing him he would be a professional. Tony Pena has baseball in his blood, and his kids are the same."

 

Another big name involved is Scott Boras, the agent whose domestic clients so often are major factors in the draft. Boras takes much the same approach to Latin America as he does to the draft, signing only a few players his talent evaluators consider to be elite talents. The player he represents generating the most talk this year is infielder Carlos Truinfel, a shortstop with a large body at 6-foot-2 and present offensive potential. Boras also represents righthander Jose Luis Areas, a 6-foot-8 righthander who Boras said already throws in the low 90s, and third baseman Carlos Villanoa, though he said they were still waiting on paperwork to determine the proper spelling of Villanoa's name.

 

"We call him Big V," Boras said jokingly. "What I do know is he is the best third baseman we've seen in the Dominican since Adrian Beltre," another Boras client.

 

Boras added that while Martinez set the top end of the market last year at $1.4 million, he expected at least Truinfel (if not his other players) would garner at least as much if not more in this year's market. One international scouting director said the asking price he'd heard for Truinfel was $3 million.

 

Three other names that had emerged as hot prospects who could sign significant contracts were Venezuelan third baseman Balbino Fuenmayor, Nicaraguan righthander Danilo Alvarez and Venezuelan catcher Jesus Montero. While Alvarez and Montero have been making the rounds since spring training with workouts for clubs, Fuenmayor was garnering the most interest because of his line-drive bat and excellent hands, which work well at the plate and in the field. Fuenmayor's speed is below-average, likely limiting him to first or third base.

 

"Of that group, Fuenmayor probably has the best chance to be something special," another international scouting director said. "He reminds me a little of (Angels infielder) Kendry Morales in that he doesn't have good range and is limited defensively, but unlike Morales, I think he has enough power, arm strength and soft hands to stay at third.

 

"I like Montero's bat some, but I don't know if he can catch long term. He's kind of stiff-bodied and probably winds up moving to first or maybe right field. Pena's definitely the better catcher of the two."

[Bambis Bombers]

Baseball Think Factory did not think too highly of the Brewers first round pick:

 

Quote:

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#16 - Milwaukee Brewers - P Jeremy Jeffress

 

I just don?t see how he generates the supposed ?triple-digit? velocity. He doesn?t have the ?intent? or the mechanics to do so. I would need to see more video of him, because on this video he?s not close to 100 mph. I heard 100 mph, so I wouldn?t expect a game-speed fastball at 88 at any point in his video, like I saw here. He at least has the potential to develop more velocity I guess.

 

Grade: D

 

Jeffress has struck out 8 batters in 7 1/3 innings in the Arizona League.

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Here's the link to the entire article:

 

www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/minor_key/discussion/breaking_down_the_first_round

[colbyjack]

Wow, that's an embarassingly bad assessment. He doesn't have the "intent" or mechanics to supposedly throw 100 mph? I think he needs to step away from the computer screen, hop on a plane to Arizona and go see Jeffress pitch for himself.

 

This comment is the best:

 

He at least has the potential to develop more velocity I guess.

 

Don't quit your day job.

 

EDIT: I shouldn't be so hard on the writer, as he obviously has a passion for watching the younger players, but his analysis makes it pretty clear that you shouldn't rely on the MLB videos to make an assessment of these players.