J.P. Breen: Brewers are "a team of intrigue and transition"

[JohnBriggs12]

Can I remind everyone that Khris Davis' HR/AB ratio for his career of one HR every 17.2 ABs is better than Prince Fielder's one every 17.7 and Ryan Braun's one every 18.6.

 

I'm not saying he's an All Star just yet, and he's got flaws as a player, but Khris Davis is a big time HR hitter and those guys do not grow on trees. The Reds gave up on Edwin Encarnacion and the Pirates gave up on Jose Bautista, two other fairly late blooming premier power hitters, and Davis could well fall into that category as a power hitter.

[brewcrewdue80]

The Rotation is what will matter between 100losses and 82wins. I don't look at this team and see 2-1, 3-2 wins really 4-3/4-2 wins. That level of pitching would bring 82wins in to play. Truth is, I see that magic 4run total for wins/losses and whether we win 5-4 or lose 6-4. Based on last year's team you can't believe the bad batting by all to averages will continue. That team avg 4.04 runs to League avg 4.25. 33runs total behind. You raise your OB pct up with subtracting Davis/Segura and just believe the runs will come out to League Avg at least. So does the Rotation provide enough 3run or less type games or do they perform to 4.55runs against League avg 4.25 again? I'm not as worried about the bullpen as others as I like Kneble a lot to go with Jeffress and Smith. I also see no reason to expect Smith traded this year. Still 3years of team control After this season. He closes this year to the tune of under 3ERA like his numbers have been, he'll only increase his value. And I believe that value stays even if he plays all of 2017 with Milw before traded his final 2seasons. The expense once 2018 season has started likely starts to eat away his value but not until. Milwaukee in my opinion ought to just hold him through his team control. You would have to offer a better than Lucroy offer for me to want to trade him. 26,27,28,29 his age before Free Agency. Expense would be the only thing you take a pass on him for. Elite Closer he'd likely get 14+million his final year and I could be off by 5mil. maybe.

Now, Jeffress while having the same team control, is 3years older. So he'll be 32 his final season of team control. He'd be my real Closer with Smith setting up just because I'd want to increase his trade value while limiting an elite closer like Smith's numbers suggest he can be. Just way too much Undervaluing of Smith like he's KRod to be vs. the young, legit Bullpen arm teams need. Including ours.

Think Wade Davis for KC. Smith is this team's Wade Davis and we have that for another 4seasons. Thinking about Smith's value even more it's more than Lucroy in honesty. I'd bet Smith outperforms Lucroy over the next 4years in terms to total value brought to the team.

Back to subject. It's such a shame Liriano is forced to miss games. Of the pickups the team has gotten, he was probably carrying the highest floor of them all. I hope Villar gets it together. I fear with him and 3b could really tank the lineup if they don't. It's just going to be an interesting season because expectations are of that 70wins vs the 77-84 potential over the last few seasons. Any good play will be a surprise. And poor-average individual play will just be "well that's a 70win team player" expected.

[FVBrewerFan]

That's why Smith hasn't been traded yet. He could be part of the rise back to the top, so he doesn't fit the profile of a player they need to trade. This is a case where I think they should hold on to him unless/until someone offers a really good deal. That could happen at the trade deadline, there's always teams looking for a bullpen arm, especially LH.

[jerichoholicninja]

Can I remind everyone that Khris Davis' HR/AB ratio for his career of one HR every 17.2 ABs is better than Prince Fielder's one every 17.7 and Ryan Braun's one every 18.6.

 

I'm not saying he's an All Star just yet, and he's got flaws as a player, but Khris Davis is a big time HR hitter and those guys do not grow on trees. The Reds gave up on Edwin Encarnacion and the Pirates gave up on Jose Bautista, two other fairly late blooming premier power hitters, and Davis could well fall into that category as a power hitter.

 

Everyone knows Davis can hit homeruns. That's about the only thing he's good at.

[Fear The Chorizo]

During Davis' 2015 season in which he mashed all these homeruns that people are comparing him to Fielder and Braun's career (laughable considering the HR rate comparison for Davis covers 2-3 years compared to about a decade each for Fielder/Braun), Davis OPS'd 0.979 at home, which is elite. Miller Park is definitely a hitter's haven, but even with saying that Davis excelled offensively with home cookin'.

 

On the other hand, Davis' 2015 road OPS was 0.646...basically equating to Jean Segura-type offensive production, which is terrible for a corner OF.

 

Davis' career OPS splits - Home (at Miller Park) - 0.877...Away - 0.736.

 

Davis' HR rate is going to take a big dive once he's substituting half his games played in Miller Park with Oakland. In 2015, Miller Park's HR Park factor ranked #1 in all of baseball (only Baltimore's stadium was even close), while Oakland's Park ranked 27th. Some of those #'s don't weigh quality of pitching as well as they should, but Miller Park is routinely a top 5 park to hit HR's, while Oakland's routinely sits in the bottom third of those rankings.

[MadScientist]

There are a number of bad teams in the NL, so in order to lose 100 games, a team would have to be REALLY bad, as in bad talent compounded with worse luck. I doubt the Brewers will fit that description. Possible, but I think unlikely.

I'd never rule out bad luck when it comes to the Brewers. They could easily get enough bad luck to drop their talent level to the 100 loss range.

 

http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/373561171.html

[Mass Haas]

Davis' HR rate is going to take a big dive once he's substituting half his games played in Miller Park with Oakland. In 2015, Miller Park's HR Park factor ranked #1 in all of baseball (only Baltimore's stadium was even close), while Oakland's Park ranked 27th. Some of those #'s don't weigh quality of pitching as well as they should, but Miller Park is routinely a top 5 park to hit HR's, while Oakland's routinely sits in the bottom third of those rankings.

 

Analysis this offseason showed with overlays that each and every one of Khris Davis' HR's in 2015 would have left Oakland's ballpark as well.

 

I feel strongly that trade is going to look great for both teams when all is said and done.

[Fear The Chorizo]

overlays don't tell the whole picture - particularly with most Miller Park games being played in climate controlled conditions indoors, weather patterns, etc. Outfield dimensions are pretty pointless to compare, actually.

 

do the overlays include foul balls Davis hit in Miller Park that would've been outs in Oakland? there's a reason players hit few HR's in Oakland compared to a majority of other MLB parks, and it's not because their fences are 50' further away from home plate.

 

I 100% agree that the Brewers did very well for their organization with the Davis trade - I think Milwaukee got great value in return for a player with no defensive value whose lone offensive strength will be hampered by where he's now getting most of his ABs.

[superfly]

Can I remind everyone that Khris Davis' HR/AB ratio for his career of one HR every 17.2 ABs is better than Prince Fielder's one every 17.7 and Ryan Braun's one every 18.6.

 

I'm not saying he's an All Star just yet, and he's got flaws as a player, but Khris Davis is a big time HR hitter and those guys do not grow on trees. The Reds gave up on Edwin Encarnacion and the Pirates gave up on Jose Bautista, two other fairly late blooming premier power hitters, and Davis could well fall into that category as a power hitter.

 

He won't be hitting them out in Oakland. He's also not even in the same league as Jose Bautista.

[Thurston Fluff]

I think Milwaukee got great value in return for a player with no defensive value whose lone offensive strength will be hampered by where he's now getting most of his ABs.

 

Not to nitpick but his defense wasn't nearly as bad as it was made out to be. Certainly not worthless. His only real problem was his weakness was more visible than some others. If his weakness would have been getting slow starts on the ball or taking poor routes nobody would be saying he was worthless on defense. That doesn't make his weak arm more of a problem than the other two. Just easier to see.

[MKE81]

And projections are worthless. No idea why people pay attention to them and factor them into their line of thinking.

 

Wasn't your entire post projections? Difference is, yours is subjective opinion. Analytical projections are far from perfect, but at least there's an attempt to use objective data.

 

For example, you say Santana is a HUGE upgrade over Davis- a guy who had an OPS of .828 last year. Let's see how Santana does over the course of an entire MLB season before we say that. What would he need to do to be huge upgrade? OPS over .900? I hope you're right though!

 

You also say Garza/Peralta will be much better than last year. We don't know that either. Not do we know if Anderson will be way better than Lohse. Krod had 2 blown saves all year. To say Smith can do that, and Morales can take his role, bingo it basically evens out... that's another stretch.

 

Most of what you said is putting the best spin on things, which is fine, but there's also a chance none of those things will be true.

My objective opinion (not subjective) is based on common sense and understanding one's skill set not an analytical model for a published projection. I also didn't state a specific number of wins like the publications do. Barring injury, what makes one believe that Garza will have an ERA 2 runs higher than his career average matching last year? Peralta had a great season in 2014 at a young age and last year had the worst of his short career by far while also being injured. Now that he's healthy, what makes one believe he'll perform similarly to last year? If they both have 4 ERAs that's a significant improvement from last year. Chase had back to back relatively solid seasons for a back end starter so what would make one question whether or not he'll outperform the worst SP in MLB last year? If he repeats last year his ERA is a full 1.5 runs lower than Lohse was. None of these guys are 36 and on their way out of the league either. Davies has grown as pitcher as well.

 

Regarding Santana, deep down you know he's a huge improvement over Davis. And OPS doesn't define a player's overall value and skill set. Santana WILL have a higher BA, definitely higher OBP than Davis has had over the past 2yrs while also driving in more runs and stealing more bases. He has to hit 246/305 to match Davis. That's not difficult when you're talented. He most likely won't hit HRs at the same clip as Davis but he'll drop 20+. Since you mentioned OPS, Davis had a 756 OPS 2yrs ago and 747 OPS last year heading into Aug. Lets discuss his body of work the past 2yrs instead of 2 powerful months to end the 2015 season boosting the hell out of his OPS (boosted solely due to HR and not OBP - a power stretch he'll never repeat in his career which is why his 828 OPS is insanely misleading and not indicative of the player you will get the very large majority of the time). Santana had a 768 OPS as a 22yr old getting first extended taste of MLB. So yes, as he continues to develop and grow he will be a massive upgrade over Davis and that starts this year when he's at a 800+ OPS and it's not unrealstic for him to be in the 830-850 area either. I haven't even touched on defense yet and the massive upgrade he'll be there too both tracking and throwing.

 

Regarding the pen, I never stated Morales will repeat Smith's performance because he won't. He's not as good. But outside of Coors he's been good therefore he's a good backfill. I stated with KRod gone this bullpen doesn't automatically collapse given how good they were with 5 guys coming back. I said they're still a strong unit because they are. KRod might have blown 2 saves but he also rarely pitched back to back. Resting helps tremendously. Smith is excellent when he has a bit of rest in between - when he's out in multi-inning spots and pitches a few nights in a row that's when he get lit up raising his ERA. He will be just fine in a closer role.

 

I want the Brewers to perform and have fun because it's more enjoyable to watch. I'm not trying to put the best spin on this team I'm trying to provide common sense realistic take on production. For example, Hill sucks!!

[TURBO]

I think the problem here is that you come off as all knowing and arrogant when you state things as fact that are no more than opinion... That demeanor sometimes rubs people the wrong way on a message board. Just saying.

[xisxisxis]

Analysis this offseason showed with overlays that each and every one of Khris Davis' HR's in 2015 would have left Oakland's ballpark as well.

 

And it was also clear from that overlay that the reason the A's park skews toward a pitchers park has nothing to do with the distances to the walls. In fact if you overlay the outfield fences for most pitchers parks there's nothing spectacular about the distance to the fences. Dodger stadium is as vanilla as they come when it comes to distances to the wall, but its historically a pitchers park some of which is related to the huge foul territory (which has been eaten away over the years by addition of premium seats) and being in chavez ravine where you have to sell a kidney to buy a breeze.

 

Given NA parks location I won't be surprised to see 15 to 20 feet coming off Davis's average flyball distances and a number of those balls that were showing up as home runs before will become long outs.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Definitely agree that park factor is not just "how far away are the walls?" it's not going to neuter Davis to go play in Oakland but it will have some effect. How much? We'll find out.

[Ennder]

Overlays are really shady. Batting drop plays into it a lot. Things like wind flow matters. Miller park has a jet stream at times in late summer so balls soar out way farther than they would in some parks. Davis will likely lose a few HR for sure.

[brewerfan82]

Anyone still positive this is a 100 loss team? Considering the low expectations, they've played some nice ball so far! Here's some fun with the numbers so far:

 

- Currently 28-31 (.475)

- To end up with 100 losses, they'd have to play like a 53-109 (.330) team the rest of the way

- To end up with a .500 record they'd have to play like a 83-79 (.515) team the rest of the way

- To be on pace to lose 100 games, they would have to lose their next 14 games in a row

 

Currently Atlanta, Minnesota and Cincinnati are the only teams on pace for 100 losses. And Cincinnati is only a 2 game winning streak from getting out of that club.

[Outlander]

Anyone still positive this is a 100 loss team? Considering the low expectations, they've played some nice ball so far! Here's some fun with the numbers so far:

 

- Currently 28-31 (.475)

- To end up with 100 losses, they'd have to play like a 53-109 (.330) team the rest of the way

- To end up with a .500 record they'd have to play like a 83-79 (.515) team the rest of the way

- To be on pace to lose 100 games, they would have to lose their next 14 games in a row

 

Currently Atlanta, Minnesota and Cincinnati are the only teams on pace for 100 losses. And Cincinnati is only a 2 game winning streak from getting out of that club.

I was never positive they were a 100 loss team but thought there was a decent chance. Against the grain but still think there is a decent chance they are a 100 loss team. Don't see a 14 game losing streak but do think there will be a long losing streak this month with so many playoff caliber teams on their schedule.

[Ennder]

It is really hard to lose 100 games so I never felt this was one. You either have to go all in with a tanking rebuild or you need to have a number of pitchers just be awful.

[JohnBriggs12]

Anyone still positive this is a 100 loss team? Considering the low expectations, they've played some nice ball so far! Here's some fun with the numbers so far:

 

- Currently 28-31 (.475)

- To end up with 100 losses, they'd have to play like a 53-109 (.330) team the rest of the way

- To end up with a .500 record they'd have to play like a 83-79 (.515) team the rest of the way

- To be on pace to lose 100 games, they would have to lose their next 14 games in a row

 

Currently Atlanta, Minnesota and Cincinnati are the only teams on pace for 100 losses. And Cincinnati is only a 2 game winning streak from getting out of that club.

 

The easy schedule stretch just ended. Now it gets tough. If they trade Braun and Lucroy in July, 100 losses is still very much on the table. In 2004, they were 47-43 on July 16, and still lost 94 games that year. I'm not predicting that will happen but I get the sense if management waves the white flag in a major way, the guys left will stumble in. I'm hoping they continue their good play and management makes the assessment that they can still build for the future while taking a stab at a wild card berth if it presents itself. Deal off the Aaron Hills and Blaine Boyers if you must, maybe even another bullpen arm, but dealing All Stars like Lucroy and Braun when the team is going well? I know that's what fans are fearing and perhaps resigned to and why the number of empty seats is growing even as the team is playing well. There's talent in this system now that can help this team be even better. Healthy, this isn't a bad 25 man roster now. Like Will Smith said on Friday's pregame show, "Everyone talks about us rebuilding, but there's me and 24 guys that believe we have a good team right now".

[LouisEly]

It is really hard to lose 100 games so I never felt this was one. You either have to go all in with a tanking rebuild or you need to have a number of pitchers just be awful.

I think that's part of the point - they've had a number of pitchers who have been awful (Peralta, Jungmann, Freeman, Goforth; Anderson and Davies started off awful but have been very good as of late) but are still winning 47.5% of their games.

 

That being said, they are still 10th out of 15 teams in the NL and trading Lucroy and Braun is a distinct possibility.

[Jenkins5]

Bats & bullpen are too good for for 100 loss team, I have been pretty consistent thinking they are a 74 win type team. I honestly don't see a fire sale coming. I'd say there is about 95% chance Braun isn't moved. Lucroy, 50/50. Teams simply don't often trade for a catcher during season, Stearns will hold out unless some team blows him away & over spends. Carter I doubt will be flipped. No other 1bs and cheap for 3 years. Jeffress & Thornburg I highly doubt get moved. Smith's value will be much higher in off-season due to injury. Blazek DL doesn't help him. Peralta & Garza have little to no value.

 

Hill may fetch something like a mid level prospect or 2.

 

Overall Stearns isn't selling unless blown away because there is no rush. Everyone is controllable.

[paul253]

Sweet! All we need is a utility player and a bullpen arm and we are a playoff contender. Go do it Doug....er David

 

In all seriousness I really hope this better than expected record doesn't change our plan. We still need to move Lucroy. And we should still look to move other pieces (Smith, Carter, Gennett, etc). Our pitching is still questionable. I just don't think we should be counting on Junior Guerra and Zach Davies to get us over the top.

[Crash2303]

it is true that if the team continues to play well and with the right pieces brought in we could be in a positive position come September, which everyone would be excited about. but not moving carter and lucroy and jeffress and hill and boyer by the trade deadline (while their value is high) would be a terrible mistake for the future. it is tempting to chase a wildcard spot and stearns will hear from it from a lot of fans if he does trade off the hot players, but the haul of prospects we should get back from them is too important for our future, extending and increasing our contending window. because of their contract situations, we may be "no rush", but some of these guys' value may not be higher than they will be in July, provided nobody gets hurt (knocking on wood) than if we wait til the offseason or next year's deadline. sell high and reap the long-term rewards!

[EauClaireNWL]

Even if this team is still around .500 at the all-star break and still within reasonable striking distance of a what could be a weak wild card race in the NL this year, I agree with the above sentiment we should still be sellers at the deadline. This team has done a lot of good to date given a lot of people projected them to be a 90+ loss team (and that could still happen), but this team is still not a serious pennant contender. If guys like Villar can bring back a decent prospect or two at the deadline, I don't think Stearns should hesitate to push the trade button. It's nice to see the guys playing hard regardless and how much better they were than a year ago even if it's just fundamentally.

[monty57]

I don't see any way Braun and Lucroy's trade value could get any higher than it is right now. Failing to trade them now could seriously harm the future of this franchise. Hill is almost sure to go, and Carter is probably at a high trade value as well.

 

There may be some fans that get upset, and undoubtedly some "talking heads" will rant a bit, but the Brewer brass can't fall off the wagon this quickly in regard to the rebuild. The return we get from the upcoming trades is going to be what could allow us to build teams that could compete for division titles and World Series appearances in the coming years instead of perpetually being a few games back in the hunt for the second Wild Card spot.