Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)

[MrTPlush]

It is a massive ask to include Gioloto but this is a massive upgrade over Werth in the outfield and behind the plate for the Nationals, who would likely overtake the Cubs as WS favorites with this deal.

 

In a video game this might be an interesting proposal, but realistically Giolito is the best prospect in the game. You just don't trade prospects on that level. You also propose them trade their #2 pitching prospect. Trading your top 2 pitching prospects is just not something a team wants to do. Lucroy/Braun are huge upgrades, but they are losing Strasburg after this year and Giolito will fill that void.

[pacopete4]

Trade them for Strasburg then too

[adambr2]

It is a massive ask to include Gioloto but this is a massive upgrade over Werth in the outfield and behind the plate for the Nationals, who would likely overtake the Cubs as WS favorites with this deal.

 

In a video game this might be an interesting proposal, but realistically Giolito is the best prospect in the game. You just don't trade prospects on that level. You also propose them trade their #2 pitching prospect. Trading your top 2 pitching prospects is just not something a team wants to do. Lucroy/Braun are huge upgrades, but they are losing Strasburg after this year and Giolito will fill that void.

 

It's rare, but not unprecedented, for a top prospect to be traded. Addison Russell and Trevor Bauer come to mind. It's true that Gioloto might be a pipe dream, but then again, most trades don't return you 2 proven MLB players elite at their respective positions. For a team like the Nationals who has never seen a WS, I can see the appeal.

 

Turner is probably a more realistic target in that deal. Fedde alone isn't nearly enough.

[Boomer5]

A baseball writer I know told me that his sources indicate the Brewers are very focused on getting young, quality pitching back in any deal for Lucroy.

 

The same person told me a few teams have called about Braun (again, Brewers want young pitching), but most of the conversations have been about Luc.

 

Excellent info!

[MrTPlush]

Addison Russell and Trevor Bauer come to mind.

 

Bauer isn't really comparable because his team wasn't really fond of him. The D Backs didn't think of him so highly. Russell is a better comparison, but he was still only the #11 prospect in baseball and the #4 SS prospect. Giolito is is the #1 prospect and the best up and coming pitcher.

 

Really the biggest roadblock in the deal is how meaningful he is to the Nationals next year with losing Strasburg. If they had Strasburg long term maybe trading Giolito would be somewhat feasible.

 

Hard to say what a team would give up for a Lucroy/Braun combo though. That is quite the offensive upgrade for the next 1.5 years plus Braun for more. You could go from an average offense to an amazing one really quick.

[adambr2]

Addison Russell and Trevor Bauer come to mind.

 

Bauer isn't really comparable because his team wasn't really fond of him. The D Backs didn't think of him so highly. Russell is a better comparison, but he was still only the #11 prospect in baseball and the #4 SS prospect. Giolito is is the #1 prospect and the best up and coming pitcher.

 

Really the biggest roadblock in the deal is how meaningful he is to the Nationals next year with losing Strasburg. If they had Strasburg long term maybe trading Giolito would be somewhat feasible.

 

Hard to say what a team would give up for a Lucroy/Braun combo though. That is quite the offensive upgrade for the next 1.5 years plus Braun for more. You could go from an average offense to an amazing one really quick.

 

I'm just spitballing, but I wonder if something with more players involved that included Nelson on our end would tempt them, since it would solve that problem. At that point, I'm not sure it's even worth it for us.

 

I realize the mere thought of dealing their top prospect might be something the Nationals wouldn't even entertain. I do think to a degree some GMs overvalue prospects. As good as Gioloto is, there is no guarantee of him coming up and becoming a Kershaw or an Arrieta. I believe Rickie Weeks was a top 5 prospect at one time. Sometimes it just doesn't translate at the MLB level the way GMs hope.

 

That said, I know the cost-controlled element of a prospect adds a great deal to their perceived value.

[wildcat2237]

Addison Russell and Trevor Bauer come to mind.

 

 

I'm just spitballing, but I wonder if something with more players involved that included Nelson on our end would tempt them, since it would solve that problem. At that point, I'm not sure it's even worth it for us.

 

I realize the mere thought of dealing their top prospect might be something the Nationals wouldn't even entertain. I do think to a degree some GMs overvalue prospects. As good as Gioloto is, there is no guarantee of him coming up and becoming a Kershaw or an Arrieta. I believe Rickie Weeks was a top 5 prospect at one time. Sometimes it just doesn't translate at the MLB level the way GMs hope.

 

That said, I know the cost-controlled element of a prospect adds a great deal to their perceived value.

 

I think Nelson would be the prime sell high candidate. He is pitching like a true #2, he is under team control through 2020, he is still young at 26 years old, and is still cheap. Sadly, most expect that the Brewers rebuild will last at least until 2018. This means that his 2016, 2017, and 2018 campaigns will be lost to the rebuild. Then you have to hope he is still healthy and productive in 2019.

 

If a Nelson/Braun or Nelson/Lucroy package can bring you back the moon, I think you have to at least consider it.

 

I dont think the Nats would put Giolito on the table. But if a team were to offer 3 or 4 legit top 100ish pitching prospects I think Stearns would have to at least consider. Off the top of my head, I believe Texas and Philidelphia are the only two teams with farm systems stocked enough to do such a deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

I realize the mere thought of dealing their top prospect might be something the Nationals wouldn't even entertain. I do think to a degree some GMs overvalue prospects. As good as Gioloto is, there is no guarantee of him coming up and becoming a Kershaw or an Arrieta. I believe Rickie Weeks was a top 5 prospect at one time. Sometimes it just doesn't translate at the MLB level the way GMs hope.

 

That said, I know the cost-controlled element of a prospect adds a great deal to their perceived value.

 

 

The equivalent would be. Would you trade Arcia for Braun/Lucroy? Giolito is the Nationals next SP post Zimmermann and Strasburg. I'd honestly think Arcia+Lucroy and you may entice them to part with him. Probably need to include one of the OF prospects as well. And yes while Arcia is #4 to Giolito's #1. What Giolito projects is a Kershaw/Bumgarner type of front line pitcher. Outweighs Arcia or any position player in value.

It's tough to compare Weeks as a prospect who didn't meet what would be #5 expectations when he had the injuries. As would be any top rated prospect. Jurickson Profar suffered multiple seasons of injuries. He's still young and posting solid numbers in AAA. But with all his lost time due to injury, he won't have a career that appears a #1 prospect worthy ranking.

 

Heck, take Arcia. Being #4. He's going to be a defensive wizard. The bat has come along enough to rate him this high. But, should he wind up closer to Andrelton Simmons with the bat, he'll be a disappointment to the high regard.

 

I think a majority of Pitcher prospects who get traded like Bauer and Shelby Miller, that are higher in prospect regard end up being the ones who's control is questionable. Giolito isn't questioned in that way. From Draft day this was a guy believed to be the next Nationals Ace. not a #2 or a #3. An Ace. Sean Newcombe is the highest SP prospect of recently traded. It was ironically for Simmons. And the knock towards him reaching his ceiling is cut down on his Walks.

 

I believe the Rangers have once again gone elsewhere acquiring Bobby Wilson from Detroit.

 

Fun trade idea. Cleveland. Yan Gomes has produced zilch since his 6year contract of 23mil. They have one of the overall top SP rotations in baseball. Send them Lucroy...and Braun. Get back their #1 prospect Bradley Zimmer. Brady Aiken. Justus Sheffield and Juan Hillman. You're eating some of Braun's contract by taking away Gomes from them. Aiken may always remain a bust but he could also turn in to TOR. And you get Sheffield/Hillman as backup pitchers to reduce the risk of a completely failed Pitching prospect acquisition.

Maybe Gomes needs change of scenery. At least with acquiring him you still have 2 Catchers and don't have to run someone up before they're ready from the minors.

[Mr Southpaw]

LA Dodgers....

 

Nelson and Lucroy for a bunch of their young pitching.

[yfinn6]

I thought the Dodgers already had a catcher they were happy with who had a good season last year. Grandal, right?

[Patrick425]

I know the Phillies have a few nice catching prospects in Alfaro and Knapp, but does anyone think they would be interested in Lucroy if they found themselves in playoff contention this year? They are fairly deep with pitching prospects too (Appel, Thompson).

[mlloyd10]

I realize the mere thought of dealing their top prospect might be something the Nationals wouldn't even entertain. I do think to a degree some GMs overvalue prospects. As good as Gioloto is, there is no guarantee of him coming up and becoming a Kershaw or an Arrieta. I believe Rickie Weeks was a top 5 prospect at one time. Sometimes it just doesn't translate at the MLB level the way GMs hope.

 

That said, I know the cost-controlled element of a prospect adds a great deal to their perceived value.

 

 

The equivalent would be. Would you trade Arcia for Braun/Lucroy? Giolito is the Nationals next SP post Zimmermann and Strasburg. I'd honestly think Arcia+Lucroy and you may entice them to part with him. Probably need to include one of the OF prospects as well. And yes while Arcia is #4 to Giolito's #1. What Giolito projects is a Kershaw/Bumgarner type of front line pitcher. Outweighs Arcia or any position player in value.

It's tough to compare Weeks as a prospect who didn't meet what would be #5 expectations when he had the injuries. As would be any top rated prospect. Jurickson Profar suffered multiple seasons of injuries. He's still young and posting solid numbers in AAA. But with all his lost time due to injury, he won't have a career that appears a #1 prospect worthy ranking.

 

Heck, take Arcia. Being #4. He's going to be a defensive wizard. The bat has come along enough to rate him this high. But, should he wind up closer to Andrelton Simmons with the bat, he'll be a disappointment to the high regard.

 

I think a majority of Pitcher prospects who get traded like Bauer and Shelby Miller, that are higher in prospect regard end up being the ones who's control is questionable. Giolito isn't questioned in that way. From Draft day this was a guy believed to be the next Nationals Ace. not a #2 or a #3. An Ace. Sean Newcombe is the highest SP prospect of recently traded. It was ironically for Simmons. And the knock towards him reaching his ceiling is cut down on his Walks.

 

I believe the Rangers have once again gone elsewhere acquiring Bobby Wilson from Detroit.

 

Fun trade idea. Cleveland. Yan Gomes has produced zilch since his 6year contract of 23mil. They have one of the overall top SP rotations in baseball. Send them Lucroy...and Braun. Get back their #1 prospect Bradley Zimmer. Brady Aiken. Justus Sheffield and Juan Hillman. You're eating some of Braun's contract by taking away Gomes from them. Aiken may always remain a bust but he could also turn in to TOR. And you get Sheffield/Hillman as backup pitchers to reduce the risk of a completely failed Pitching prospect acquisition.

Maybe Gomes needs change of scenery. At least with acquiring him you still have 2 Catchers and don't have to run someone up before they're ready from the minors.

 

You cant think that way...We are in two different situations.

[adambr2]

If we had a contending team with holes at catcher and OF but respectable play at SS and money was no factor, I'd absolutely trade Arcia for Braun and Lucroy.

 

As a rebuilding club, definitely not.

[MrTPlush]

If we had a contending team with holes at catcher and OF but respectable play at SS and money was no factor, I'd absolutely trade Arcia for Braun and Lucroy.

 

As a rebuilding club, definitely not.

 

If Lucroy got hot this summer, Braun stays healthy/productive, and I was a team with big needs on offensive with weak links at C/OF I would honestly probably think long and hard about it. That would be a massive non rental upgrade to an offense. Massive.

 

The problem is the Nationals have a need for Giolito next year to replace Strasburg. If they has Strasburg for another 2+ years maybe trading away Giolito would be something not too crazy. The situation I think that would need to exist is something similar to when Profar was a big time prospect with no obvious spot in the near future.

[MadThinker88]

Fun trade idea. Cleveland. Yan Gomes has produced zilch since his 6year contract of 23mil. They have one of the overall top SP rotations in baseball. Send them Lucroy...and Braun. Get back their #1 prospect Bradley Zimmer. Brady Aiken. Justus Sheffield and Juan Hillman. You're eating some of Braun's contract by taking away Gomes from them. Aiken may always remain a bust but he could also turn in to TOR. And you get Sheffield/Hillman as backup pitchers to reduce the risk of a completely failed Pitching prospect acquisition.

Maybe Gomes needs change of scenery. At least with acquiring him you still have 2 Catchers and don't have to run someone up before they're ready from the minors.

 

As the resident Tribe fan here let me respond to this trade idea...

ONLY if you include $75 Million to cover the cost of the Braun contract.

 

Seriously. Explain why Cleveland or any other club is going to trade roughly 24 years worth of major league time for about 6 seasons worth in this day of prospect value. Maybe 15 years ago but not now. Not going to happen. On top of that the Tribe payroll is under $90 million at this point and that is with them paying dead weight money for Bourne, Swisher and Chris Johnson this year. Looking for them to pay even half the Braun contract is a longer shot then the Clowns (err Browns) going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl this next season. Again, not going to happen.

[SRB]

Arcia is not even in the same league as Giolito as as prospect. I think Arcia has way too much helium among Brewers fans. He has a very solid chance of being a solid starting SS like Alcides Escobar. He is not a future superstar.

[adambr2]

Arcia is not even in the same league as Giolito as as prospect. I think Arcia has way too much helium among Brewers fans. He has a very solid chance of being a solid starting SS like Alcides Escobar. He is not a future superstar.

 

I don't totally agree, but I don't totally disagree either. On one hand I think people are expecting a bit too much from Arcia based on his prospect rating. No, he's not going to come up here and win any batting titles.

 

But, he's a better hitter than Escobar ever was. I think he'll settle in as a .280-.290 hitter with a .750 OPS or so and a slick glove. For a SS, that's pretty solid.

[MrTPlush]

But, he's a better hitter than Escobar ever was. I think he'll settle in as a .280-.290 hitter with a .750 OPS or so and a slick glove. For a SS, that's pretty solid.

 

Which makes the Alcides Escobar comparison not really that off. Escobar has had two season pretty close to what you described. Escobar has just been really inconsistent and had a lot of stinker years.

 

In the end Arcia has the potential to be a 3-4 WAR SS and that would make him one of the games best. So I would say he does have the potential to be a superstar at one of the most premium positions in the game. Whether or not he becomes a superstar there is going to depend on how much pop he actually hits for at the MLB level and if he can keep his average up. Because if his average drops to say .260-.270 he is going to kill almost all value on offense thanks to his poor OBP skills. One of the most disappointing things in recent years is the fact his OBP has steadily gotten worse.

[brewcrewdue80]

Fun trade idea. Cleveland. Yan Gomes has produced zilch since his 6year contract of 23mil. They have one of the overall top SP rotations in baseball. Send them Lucroy...and Braun. Get back their #1 prospect Bradley Zimmer. Brady Aiken. Justus Sheffield and Juan Hillman. You're eating some of Braun's contract by taking away Gomes from them. Aiken may always remain a bust but he could also turn in to TOR. And you get Sheffield/Hillman as backup pitchers to reduce the risk of a completely failed Pitching prospect acquisition.

Maybe Gomes needs change of scenery. At least with acquiring him you still have 2 Catchers and don't have to run someone up before they're ready from the minors.

 

As the resident Tribe fan here let me respond to this trade idea...

ONLY if you include $75 Million to cover the cost of the Braun contract.

 

Seriously. Explain why Cleveland or any other club is going to trade roughly 24 years worth of major league time for about 6 seasons worth in this day of prospect value. Maybe 15 years ago but not now. Not going to happen. On top of that the Tribe payroll is under $90 million at this point and that is with them paying dead weight money for Bourne, Swisher and Chris Johnson this year. Looking for them to pay even half the Braun contract is a longer shot then the Clowns (err Browns) going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl this next season. Again, not going to happen.

 

You aren't taking in Lucroys value? I'll give you 18years for the value on Cleveland's side, for the 8 of Lucroy/Braun. Lucroy I'd expect a QO so there's 6yrs back. Taking the contract of Gomes off their hands?

Elite Pitchers cost elite money. Team as constructed now? Not winning anything for 2seasons. What happens when Kluber, Carrasco command 24+mil each? Your window is short if your the tribe.

Aiken/Hillman are less than 50% chance of reaching the Majors. You'll replace Hillman with the QO pick. This deal isn't overwhelming for what Braun/Lucroy can do for Indians offense these 2seasons while that Pitching over there is cheap. And Braun is still tradeable if 2016/17 don't produce a Championship.

[Boomer5]

Fun trade idea. Cleveland. Yan Gomes has produced zilch since his 6year contract of 23mil. They have one of the overall top SP rotations in baseball. Send them Lucroy...and Braun. Get back their #1 prospect Bradley Zimmer. Brady Aiken. Justus Sheffield and Juan Hillman. You're eating some of Braun's contract by taking away Gomes from them. Aiken may always remain a bust but he could also turn in to TOR. And you get Sheffield/Hillman as backup pitchers to reduce the risk of a completely failed Pitching prospect acquisition.

Maybe Gomes needs change of scenery. At least with acquiring him you still have 2 Catchers and don't have to run someone up before they're ready from the minors.

 

As the resident Tribe fan here let me respond to this trade idea...

ONLY if you include $75 Million to cover the cost of the Braun contract.

 

Seriously. Explain why Cleveland or any other club is going to trade roughly 24 years worth of major league time for about 6 seasons worth in this day of prospect value. Maybe 15 years ago but not now. Not going to happen. On top of that the Tribe payroll is under $90 million at this point and that is with them paying dead weight money for Bourne, Swisher and Chris Johnson this year. Looking for them to pay even half the Braun contract is a longer shot then the Clowns (err Browns) going undefeated and winning the Super Bowl this next season. Again, not going to happen.

 

You aren't taking in Lucroys value? I'll give you 18years for the value on Cleveland's side, for the 8 of Lucroy/Braun. Lucroy I'd expect a QO so there's 6yrs back. Taking the contract of Gomes off their hands?

Elite Pitchers cost elite money. Team as constructed now? Not winning anything for 2seasons. What happens when Kluber, Carrasco command 24+mil each? Your window is short if your the tribe.

Aiken/Hillman are less than 50% chance of reaching the Majors. You'll replace Hillman with the QO pick. This deal isn't overwhelming for what Braun/Lucroy can do for Indians offense these 2seasons while that Pitching over there is cheap. And Braun is still tradeable if 2016/17 don't produce a Championship.

 

He's also not considering the Indians attendance which is pathetic. They need to generate some buzz as the days of the sellout streak are long gone.

[brewcrewdue80]

Ok, I retract my expensive statement of those 2 SPs. Kluber and Carrasco apparently have some poor agents who agreed to sign to contracts less than 14mil beyond their team control. Wow. David Price just recently got paid near 20mil. And Kluber agrees after a CyYoung season to a 5/38.5?

He is 30 currently and while the Indians do have 95mil on their books this season, 22.1mil is complete dead money. They'll have plenty of space(under 50mil) the next 3seasons to afford Braun.

To put it politely Lucroy would be leading the Indians in OPS. Nevermind Braun's 150+pt lead he has over Lucroy. .833 Replacing .551 and .994 replacing 681/699 combo of Byrd/Davis.

 

Team is 12th in runs scored. 8th in Runs allowed. And that's with injuries to the staff. The boost Braun/Lucroy would provide to Cleveland with their staff would instantly make them a WS favorite on the AL side. Like I said, it's truly not an overwhelming package for likes of Braun/Lucroy. Zimmer while the Indians #1 prospect isn't offering anything special as a Plus tool. Just a solid high floor. Aiken is the biggest boom/bust differential there is in the Minors. Hillman is at least 3 if not 4years from even seeing a day in the Majors if he produces. Sheffield is the best of the lot and he's undersized for a SP. Honestly the more I evaluate this trade the more one sided it is for Cleveland.

 

Edit: to put in perspective. Cody Allen with near Kluber service time. Having pitched less than 250IP as RP. His first year Arb, is almost identical to amount Indians are paying Kluber this season. That is after his CyYoung he agreed to this amount in what would have been Klubers first Arb year. Agent easily cost Kluber minimum 50million with this contract.

[mattyo]

Don't look now but Lucroy's average is up to .320 on the season. The man is still a top 3 catcher in baseball and is performing very well. Thats all we can really ask right now

[Austin Tatious]

If any team wouldn't pay the price over the winter with some unwise argument about Lucroy's 2015, then you drive the price higher than what they could have gotten him for in the offseason. You play roulette, and the price goes up. Of course, you play teams off each other. Throw him out there to teams competing against each other.

[MrTPlush]

If any team wouldn't pay the price over the winter with some unwise argument about Lucroy's 2015, then you drive the price higher than what they could have gotten him for in the offseason. You play roulette, and the price goes up. Of course, you play teams off each other. Throw him out there to teams competing against each other.

 

Doubt the price went up. More likely we had a crazy price(that expected him to hit like this) and maybe we can get that crazy price now. Before teams were trying to knock down the prices over injury concerns and his lack of production for a big part of last year.

[monty57]

If any team wouldn't pay the price over the winter with some unwise argument about Lucroy's 2015, then you drive the price higher than what they could have gotten him for in the offseason. You play roulette, and the price goes up. Of course, you play teams off each other. Throw him out there to teams competing against each other.

 

Doubt the price went up. More likely we had a crazy price(that expected him to hit like this) and maybe we can get that crazy price now. Before teams were trying to knock down the prices over injury concerns and his lack of production for a big part of last year.

 

Yeah, there are probably a few teams out there right now thinking "Boy, I wish we had made that deal with the Brewers."

 

Now, Lucroy just has to stay healthy and productive until closer to the deadline, and the Brewers should get a nice deal for him. With not only his bat, but also his defense so far this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Gomez/Fiers type return for him at the deadline. Add that to the talent we already have in the system, and we will have one heck of a stocked farm, with a lot of talent ready to start showing up at the MLB level.

 

I just hope that the headliner is a starting pitcher. Add one "blue chip" SP to join the Arcia/Phillips wave of prospects coming up, and I'm happy.