Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)

[fondybrewfan]

Lucroy is a solid defensive catcher; if anyone could adapt to a new pitching staff it would seem like he could. After all the Brewers have mowed through many pitchers in his time here. It maybe would take him 2 turns through the rotation with a new team to get acclimated.

[brewmann04]

if they do move LUC would like to see a top Pitcher come back

[Boomer5]

Lucroy is a solid defensive catcher; if anyone could adapt to a new pitching staff it would seem like he could. After all the Brewers have mowed through many pitchers in his time here. It maybe would take him 2 turns through the rotation with a new team to get acclimated.

 

Im not disagreeing, only that a starting catcher being moved midseason is pretty rare.

 

With Tex and Detroit both losing catchers, it would seem to be a sellers market.

[monty57]

Im not disagreeing, only that a starting catcher being moved midseason is pretty rare.

 

I went through some random recent catchers' stats to see if they changed teams mid-season. Note: some of these may have been getting cut by one team and picked up by the other, but most were probably trades:

 

Jason Kendall 2007 A's to CHC

Kurt Suzuki: 2012 As to WSH 2013 WSH to A's

AJ Pierzynski: 2014 StL to Boston

Geovany Soto: 2012 CHC to Tex, 2014 Tex to Oakland

Benji Molina: 2010 SF to Tex

Wellington Castillo: 2015 CHC - SEA - ARI

Nick Hundley: 2014 SD to Baltimore

Wilson Ramos: 2010 (as rookie) Min to WSH

Saltalamacchia: 2007 Atl to Tex, 2010 Tex to Boston

 

I didn't look at that many catchers. This is not very scientific, but a many/most of the catchers I looked at have moved mid-season at some point in their career.

[Lee16]

Every day that Lucroy is still a Brewer makes me a little more nervous we overplayed our hand. Texas and Detroit both have serious injuries to their starting catchers. If not now, when?

[pacopete4]

Stearns is a better poker player than anyone on these boards. Relax people. Reeeeelax.

[jerichoholicninja]

Catchers get called up and sent down, cut and signed by someone else all the time. If AAAA scrubs and veteran fodder catchers can come in midseason and work with a staff, Lucroy should be fine. If a team is in the playoff chase and their catchers all suck, no GM should hesitate to think about Lucroy.

[paul253]

Stearns is a better poker player than anyone on these boards. Relax people. Reeeeelax.

 

Posts like this are very condescending. GMs are humans too. They make mistakes. It's possible Stearns has already turned down the best offer he's going to get. It's possible he overplayed his hand. Obviously we don't know but to just assume he is playing this out perfectly is not necessarily accurate either. People have every right to be nervous if they want. DM made some very good trades but he also waited way too long to move some guys and got little or no value for them. Hart and Axford come to mind. And the original Gomez deal was awful. Right now everything is just speculation but I'd hate to see Stearns make the same mistake Melvin did numerous times and kill Lucroys value by holding onto him too long. And also consider the concussion. One more and his trade value will be next to nothing.

[MrTPlush]

Hart and Axford come to mind.

 

Why would we have traded Axford before 2012? No way we were trading our closer when they went to compete in 2012...Hart similarly.

 

Those guys are not comparable because they weren't obvious "we have to trade these guys" like Lucroy is. We are clearly rebuilding right now and Lucroy won't be around when we compete again. Can't say the same about those two.

[paul253]

My point is that there was a certain amount of time you have trade guys before their value starts to decrease rather significantly. No you didn't HAVE to trade Axford but closers are a dime a dozen. They could have traded him after 2010 when he had his career year or after 2011 when they had KRod under contract. Hart could have been moved in 2012 before he got hurt because the Brewers were clearly going nowhere. Some of it is luck but some of it is also recognizing what a guys max value is going to be. I'm not claiming Stearns has missed his chance because nobody knows, not even Stearns. I'm just saying I'd tend to be more cautious. I've always believed trading a guy with a two years left will get you more than trading him with one year left and trading him with one year left will get you more than trading him at the deadline. I can't imagine they'll let Lucroy walk with a QO. I just hope he doesn't get hurt or struggle again. It's a risk. But again, to just assume Stearns is going to handle this perfectly is just as wrong as assuming he's going to blow it. Lucroy isn't Jason Rogers or Luis Sardenas. There is a lot of pressure to get this right. Lucroy is our last major trade asset.

[Boomer5]

At this point we really don't know if Stearns is a good or bad GM.

[MadThinker88]

I would agree that Texas has a deeper farm system and their need for catching help is more pronounced at this point, but they are taking a longer term view for contention.

 

The Detroit Tigers is in more of a win now mode. It would be interesting to see what sort of trade package they would put together. Perhaps they would be willing to part with a James McCann and another piece.

 

McCann would fill the immediate need in the bigs & allow Nottingham all the time he needs to develop. If Nottingham proves to be a MLB bat but can't stick behind the plate, the Crew would have time to source out another back-stop.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I would agree that Texas has a deeper farm system and their need for catching help is more pronounced at this point, but they are taking a longer term view for contention.

 

The Detroit Tigers is in more of a win now mode. It would be interesting to see what sort of trade package they would put together. Perhaps they would be willing to part with a James McCann and another piece.

 

McCann would fill the immediate need in the bigs & allow Nottingham all the time he needs to develop. If Nottingham proves to be a MLB bat but can't stick behind the plate, the Crew would have time to source out another back-stop.

No thanks, not unless Daniel Norris and Fulmer are involved.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I trust DS a hell of a lot more than the chicken little on this forum. He has had a firm belief in the value of Lucroy and has not budged on it. We should be praising him... not crucifying him.

[paul253]

Dude chill out. Nobody's "crucifying" Stearns. I know you're new to the forum here but generally insulting other posters isn't the best idea. People are allowed to express their opinions.

[pacopete4]

Dude chill out. Nobody's "crucifying" Stearns. I know you're new to the forum here but generally insulting other posters isn't the best idea. People are allowed to express their opinions.

 

 

I think you're the one that needs to "chill out." You're taking everything way too seriously. My post condescending? Come on man. It was very light hearted to begin with. But there's a reason he's the GM and we are at home in our undies on a message board. Fans panic constantly. We over value players all the time. It's okay. A trade will most likely happen and we can debate it then but to sit here and complain that you're nervous or concerned that they have missed a window is just a little nuts. Literally no one knows if there even has been a legit offer for Lucroy to begin with. Oh and comparing our new GM who has had no issues shipping guys out to a GM we had before him is also very silly. Let the man do his job. Then be reactionary.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Dude chill out. Nobody's "crucifying" Stearns. I know you're new to the forum here but generally insulting other posters isn't the best idea. People are allowed to express their opinions.

I don't care if you have a dissenting opinion in fact I'm happy you do because I love talking Brewer's baseball and that's how a productive discussion starts. I said chicken littles because a lot of posters are "acting like the sky is falling" in regards to not trading Lucroy by now. If you think that's an insult... Then I don't know what to tell you. Alright back to Lucroy!

[1992casey]

I didn't get the Chicken Little analogy right away, although in retrospect, I should have. I think Paul and possibly others may have missed it too. Directly mentioning the sky falling — or linking the words Chicken Little to a page about the story — would have likely taken the edge off.

[paul253]

I did miss it so my bad. I take back my insulting other posters comment. But I think it's fine for people to be nervous about the Lucroy situation. Like I said he's one more concussion from having zero value. He's another bad season away from killing his value. As I said it's a risk. And as plenty of posters, myself included, have shown with theoretical trade proposals, sometimes people tend to overvalue their own assets. I'm not suggesting Stearns is, but he's still new and I'm not ready to throw all my faith in him after a few minor trades. And as far as me bringing up DM, I wasn't really comparing the two. Just using DM to show that sometimes GMs hold onto players too long and it doesn't always end well. Like everyone else I want the best return for Lucroy. And my personal opinion is the sooner you trade him the better the return will be.

[pacopete4]

Like I said he's one more concussion from having zero value. He's another bad season away from killing his value. As I said it's a risk.

 

He also might not have the value you and other believe he does because he had a poor season last year to begin with and then injury problems. Maybe he needs time to build that value back up?

 

And as plenty of posters, myself included, have shown with theoretical trade proposals, sometimes people tend to overvalue their own assets.

 

We've seen them all. I would be willing to bet my house on a lot of them if they were available to Stearns he would be taking them. A good indication that those deals are not on the table is that Lucroy is still in a Brewers uniform.

 

Like everyone else I want the best return for Lucroy. And my personal opinion is the sooner you trade him the better the return will be.

 

While your personal opinion might be this, the evidence contradicts it. If the best time to trade him was now, and those top tier packages were on the table, I really don't think Stearns would be holding onto him hoping for even more.

 

 

The other part of this is there is just too much unknown by fans. So getting all nervous about it is rather silly because we truly don't know what is happening behind the scenes. But like I said, the evidence (he still being a Brewer) points to the offers not being all that great for his services. It just doesn't add up that Stearns would hold onto him in a rebuilding year(s) when he has some of the offers mentions in these threads.

[QuevedosTongue]

Anybody remember the last major deal that took place in April? Or May? I just don't see it happening until June at the earliest. Teams don't want to deal now, then have the season fall apart for some other reason. Teams will wait until at least 1/3 into the season and, if they are in contention at that point and they need a catcher, they will start talking about a deal.

 

I'm not saying this line of thinking is right, but it's how it works. Unless I've forgotten about some major trades that happened in April or May. Then, nevermind.

[monty57]

My guess from the rumblings at places like MLBtraderumors is that there were "good" offers out there, but Stearns is holding out for "very good," or even "great."

 

I think that if Lucroy continues to play well and stay healthy, Stearns will have played his hand well, and some team will raise their offer to what Stearns is asking. The risk is that Lucroy gets hurt. Even a non-career-threatening injury could take him off the trade market if he's hurt at the deadline, but another serious concussion could end his career, obviously meaning we'd get nothing when we could have had a "good" return. Or, he could hurt something that puts him out of commission until mid-season next year, meaning that our best-case option would be that we could offer a QO if he's healthy when he comes back.

 

It doesn't seem to be too far-fetched to believe that Stearns is taking something of a gamble, I just hope it pays off. My hope is that he can get another guy that can form a core along with Arcia & Phillips (and probably others like Hader, etc) for the better part of the next decade, plus a couple high-upside youngsters. I don't know whether that would be the "good" offer, or the "great" offer. I personally think Stearns is holding out for more than that.

[paul253]

I think that if Lucroy continues to play well and stay healthy, Stearns will have played his hand well, and some team will raise their offer to what Stearns is asking. The risk is that Lucroy gets hurt. Even a non-career-threatening injury could take him off the trade market if he's hurt at the deadline, but another serious concussion could end his career, obviously meaning we'd get nothing when we could have had a "good" return. Or, he could hurt something that puts him out of commission until mid-season next year, meaning that our best-case option would be that we could offer a QO if he's healthy when he comes back

 

This. This is a very good way of explaining it. His value could go up yet but given his age, his concussion, and the fact every game he plays with Milwaukee is one less game he plays with the team that trades for him I think that the chances his value goes down are just as high as the chances of his value going up. There are so many variables that we can only speculate. As I said I tend to be more cautious in nature than adventurous. If Texas offered me Tate and Brinson/Ortiz/Mazara Id jump on it. Some people would hold out for more. Just depends on your perspective I guess.

 

While your personal opinion might be this, the evidence contradicts it. If the best time to trade him was now, and those top tier packages were on the table, I really don't think Stearns would be holding onto him hoping for even more.

 

Do we really know this though? We'd have to compare trade offers from the same team over two different periods of time. And we usually don't know for sure what an offer is. If Lucroy is traded to, for instance, Texas next offseason we'd have to know for certain what their offer was this past offseason in order to determine when the better time to trade him was. But we have no idea what Texas offered for him. I agree that if the top tier offers were on the table Stearns would have taken one. But that's assuming a top tier offer will actually be on the table. In Montys words maybe "good" is the best there's going to be because the teams that are interested in Lucroy just aren't that interested in him. But in my opinion a "good offer" is probably still better than a draft pick in the late 30s.

 

Who knows. Everything is speculation. Let's just hope it ends well.

[Oldcity]

Anybody remember the last major deal that took place in April? Or May? I just don't see it happening until June at the earliest. Teams don't want to deal now, then have the season fall apart for some other reason. Teams will wait until at least 1/3 into the season and, if they are in contention at that point and they need a catcher, they will start talking about a deal.

 

I'm not saying this line of thinking is right, but it's how it works. Unless I've forgotten about some major trades that happened in April or May. Then, nevermind.

 

 

Yes, that is because generally, teams who are clearly not competing have sold before the season, and all the rest of the teams at least attempt to contend until July. The Brewers are a very unusual case, though, in that they are clearly not looking to compete this year, but still have a significant chip. They are great candidates to be exceptions to this rule.

[brewcrewdue80]

I think Tate can be crossed off on the trade prospects. He's off to a 10.2 0ER 1bb-16K start to the season. #4 pick in last years draft and he's doing this? I'd advance him up a level after just 1 more start of this quality. He could be in AAA by year's end and a SP for Texas by next season. Lucroy isn't enough to get that kind of prospect.

 

I personally think the ask for is/was Joey Gallo. All those concerns of his Ks and defense are something that a rebuilding team like Milw could take the risk on for the reward potential. If he didn't play a good 3b you can try 1b or at worst if his bat was quality trade him to an AL team to use at DH.

 

Matuella is coming off TJ surgery shortly. No reason to put him in high regard as trade prospect.

Mazara being 20 and off to the start he's showing makes him worth more than Lucroy.

Brewers don't have a use for Brinson with Phillips. Leaves Luis Ortiz as the best Texas Prospect within reason to trade for Lucroy if your Texas as the headliner. Then you're left with hopefuls that just need time to put it all together.

I don't believe you want that if your Stearns on Lucroy trade. The hopefuls aren't HR type prospects like Tate, Gallo, and Mazara are. Ortiz has that weight issue hanging over him. I find it very unlikely the Brewers end up trading with the Rangers anymore.