Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)

[monty57]

I am absolutely astounded that Lucroy hasn't bothered to get a place to stay in Milwaukee. I realize the odds are good he won't be here all year, but not bothering to rent a spot for your family to live, "just in case" seems foolish. Is he worried he wouldn't get a deposit back or something? Sheesh.

 

Well, yeah. If you sign a lease, you're on the hook for it, so he could be out quite a bit of money since it sounds like he's looking for a place for his family, and not just getting a place with several of his teammates. If he assumed he'd be traded, why throw away thousands of dollars for nothing? There's a reason many pro athletes end up broke shortly after they retire... he probably doesn't want to be one of them.

[gregmag]

I still think there's a good chance something happens in the next week. It just takes one person to cave into our demands to make it work. It's not like there's only one team that could use Luc. He's looking good, hitting the ball well - someone will be convinced that he's good to go for 2016 and pull the trigger.

 

If that great deal doesn't come in, we can wait. Luc will still be valuable at the deadline or next off season. I just think it'll happen sooner than later.

I have the same sense, but I'm not sure how much it's based on analysis and how much on hope. Everybody talks about how spring performance doesn't matter, and mostly they're right, but this sure seems like the mother of all exceptions to the rule. If anyone's been lowballing an offer because of Luc's health, that argument seems to have lost all traction. The key factor, I think, is that there needs to be more than one team interested, because with more than one suitor they all have an incentive to stop lowballing.

[reillymcshane]

I still think there's a good chance something happens in the next week. It just takes one person to cave into our demands to make it work. It's not like there's only one team that could use Luc. He's looking good, hitting the ball well - someone will be convinced that he's good to go for 2016 and pull the trigger.

 

If that great deal doesn't come in, we can wait. Luc will still be valuable at the deadline or next off season. I just think it'll happen sooner than later.

I have the same sense, but I'm not sure how much it's based on analysis and how much on hope. Everybody talks about how spring performance doesn't matter, and mostly they're right, but this sure seems like the mother of all exceptions to the rule. If anyone's been lowballing an offer because of Luc's health, that argument seems to have lost all traction. The key factor, I think, is that there needs to be more than one team interested, because with more than one suitor they all have an incentive to stop lowballing.

With regards to spring performance, I don't really think it's exactly what Luc's done - just that he's out there doing his job, he looks good, look sharp, etc. There's nothing screaming out that there's an issue - such as striking out 20 times in 40 ABs or something like that.

[trwi7]

I am absolutely astounded that Lucroy hasn't bothered to get a place to stay in Milwaukee. I realize the odds are good he won't be here all year, but not bothering to rent a spot for your family to live, "just in case" seems foolish. Is he worried he wouldn't get a deposit back or something? Sheesh.

 

Well, yeah. If you sign a lease, you're on the hook for it, so he could be out quite a bit of money since it sounds like he's looking for a place for his family, and not just getting a place with several of his teammates. If he assumed he'd be traded, why throw away thousands of dollars for nothing? There's a reason many pro athletes end up broke shortly after they retire... he probably doesn't want to be one of them.

 

He could easily ask to go month to month on rent, even offering to put down a higher security deposit for the chance to go month to month. It's not like he's going to have to pay a full year's rent up front.

 

He has a wife and a kid. That means he needs a two bedroom. You can find a pretty good two bedroom anywhere you want in the metro area for around $800. All he would have to do is tell the landlord I'll double the security deposit if you let me go month to month on rent because I don't know if I'm going to be traded. For 6 months, that's like $6,400 including the doubled security deposit. If he gets traded before the season starts, he can tell them they can keep the security deposit for holding the apartment for him. Yeah you're out $1,600 at that point but that's not going to cause him to go broke.

[Boomer5]

I am absolutely astounded that Lucroy hasn't bothered to get a place to stay in Milwaukee. I realize the odds are good he won't be here all year, but not bothering to rent a spot for your family to live, "just in case" seems foolish. Is he worried he wouldn't get a deposit back or something? Sheesh.

 

Well, yeah. If you sign a lease, you're on the hook for it, so he could be out quite a bit of money since it sounds like he's looking for a place for his family, and not just getting a place with several of his teammates. If he assumed he'd be traded, why throw away thousands of dollars for nothing? There's a reason many pro athletes end up broke shortly after they retire... he probably doesn't want to be one of them.

 

He could easily ask to go month to month on rent, even offering to put down a higher security deposit for the chance to go month to month. It's not like he's going to have to pay a full year's rent up front.

 

He has a wife and a kid. That means he needs a two bedroom. You can find a pretty good two bedroom anywhere you want in the metro area for around $800. All he would have to do is tell the landlord I'll double the security deposit if you let me go month to month on rent because I don't know if I'm going to be traded. For 6 months, that's like $6,400 including the doubled security deposit. If he gets traded before the season starts, he can tell them they can keep the security deposit for holding the apartment for him. Yeah you're out $1,600 at that point but that's not going to cause him to go broke.

 

I doubt the reason he hasn't set up a residence is because he couldn't figure out logistics. It's more to his mindset that he only plans on looking for any kind of residence in his new city and obviously he feels that is a highly likely scenario sooner rather than later.

[brewmann04]

I think Martin is tougher on Willy and seems to get the most out of willy.

[1992casey]

Making last minute housing arrangements has to be pretty routine in baseball. Luc would simply be in a position that's similar to those who don't know they'll make the team or come in via a trade.

 

I think it's fair to assume that teams have people who assist players in finding housing. And married players like Luc would have the advantage of a wife who can make the decision. For some, a hotel wouldn't be out of the question.

[JackNicholson1974]

I think it has been mentioned in previous threads but Rotoworld had a post about a three team with Braves and Astros last month but fell apart due to Brewers asking price.

[MKE81]

A lousy trade for Lucroy won't happen to begin with. Maybe Stearns settles for one less prospect in the deal but it certainly won't be lousy. Keeping him for 2 years would be a lousy decision. Stearns will absolutely get much more in value than a comp draft pick. I would absolutely package another valuable player with Lucroy to sweeten the return.

 

Right now there is certainly a good deal on the table now for Luc. Stearns is holding out for a great deal I would assume and he has 11 days to do it.

 

Past that he is just being wreck less with his number 1 trade chip.

Of course there's a good deal on the table. Probably several. Which is why I stated that Stearns will not be getting a lousy return in this trade. Calling Stearns reckless for not trading Lucroy prior to opening day is absolutely absurd. Lucroy is healthy and will perform at a high level because that's what people with his talent do when they're healthy. When a team is backed into a corner needing that talent level behind the plate they will increase that good offer to a great offer. It's called having the upper hand - being patient and not making an emotional, irrational decision because you know what the outcome WILL be. I hope he's traded before opening day but if he's not then so be it as its only a matter of time

[brewmann04]

This is the last chip in adding pieces hope Stearns takes his time and gets the best deal.

[FVBrewerFan]

Last chip, other than Smith, Jeffress, Scooter, Peralta, Braun...

[MrTPlush]

Last chip, other than Smith, Jeffress, Scooter, Peralta, Braun...

 

Yah Smith and Jeffress are both major chips. Both of those guys could warrant a Top 100 type prospect. Peralta is also quite valuable if he gets back on track. Braun and Gennett....wouldn't call them big pieces.

[Boomer5]

Key trade chip Smith with fluid build up in his knee. This is classic Brewers luck.

 

Let's not mess around with Luc.

[pacopete4]

Key trade chip Smith with fluid build up in his knee. This is classic Brewers luck.

 

Let's not mess around with Luc.

 

 

Well good thing he's under control through 2020. Maybe we can get that knee fluid build up under control by then to trade him.

[Polish Falcons]

My fear with Lucroy is that teams see his 2015 numbers and see an aging catcher with injury risk who is not worth giving up much for. His trade value is very low. We really rely on Lucroy to have a solid first couple months of the season or we are not getting anything back which would be disappointing.

[pacopete4]

I'm really glad a lot of people on these boards are not in charge of this trade. Panic. The trade will be made when the best deal is out there. We know like 5% of what actually is going on. Relax.

[billymac]

One of the recent articles on the Astros trade discussions had someone comment that Joe Musgrove was the centerpiece of the Feb talks that fell apart, not sure what to make of it, big guy with really good command, saying he could be a top of the rotation guy, no other pieces were mentioned

[MrTPlush]

One of the recent articles on the Astros trade discussions had someone comment that Joe Musgrove was the centerpiece of the Feb talks that fell apart, not sure what to make of it, big guy with really good command, saying he could be a top of the rotation guy, no other pieces were mentioned

 

If he was the center piece talks fell apart in a few seconds.

[mlloyd10]

Reed and Martes

[MKE81]

My fear with Lucroy is that teams see his 2015 numbers and see an aging catcher with injury risk who is not worth giving up much for. His trade value is very low. We really rely on Lucroy to have a solid first couple months of the season or we are not getting anything back which would be disappointing.

How is his trade value low? He's one of the best catchers in baseball. 2015 doesn't negate his body of work and he hit well in the 2nd half. He's healthy and looks like his 2014 self.

[Polish Falcons]

My fear with Lucroy is that teams see his 2015 numbers and see an aging catcher with injury risk who is not worth giving up much for. His trade value is very low. We really rely on Lucroy to have a solid first couple months of the season or we are not getting anything back which would be disappointing.

How is his trade value low? He's one of the best catchers in baseball. 2015 doesn't negate his body of work and he hit well in the 2nd half. He's healthy and looks like his 2014 self.

 

 

Based on past performance and brewer fan opinions he is one of the best catchers in baseball. Fan graphs steamer projections rank him tied for 14th best catcher. More like middle of the road.

[MrTPlush]

Haha steamer projections...you cannot be serious, right?

[MKE81]

My fear with Lucroy is that teams see his 2015 numbers and see an aging catcher with injury risk who is not worth giving up much for. His trade value is very low. We really rely on Lucroy to have a solid first couple months of the season or we are not getting anything back which would be disappointing.

How is his trade value low? He's one of the best catchers in baseball. 2015 doesn't negate his body of work and he hit well in the 2nd half. He's healthy and looks like his 2014 self.

 

 

Based on past performance and brewer fan opinions he is one of the best catchers in baseball. Fan graphs steamer projections rank him tied for 14th best catcher. More like middle of the road.

Excuse me while I enjoy a hearty laugh. What purpose does anybody serve on the baseball side of an organization when anybody in the world can look at the results of an analytical model to determine who's the most valuable? Because we all know every single variable is calculated in those models (i.e. intelligence, effort, preparation, makeup, etc). Silly me

 

Those same folks at Fangraphs one year ago ranked Lucroy as the 6th best catcher (and they say 6th only because he spells Lind at 1b therefore his value as a catcher drops a bit otherwise he's easily top 5 - "He’s elite in every sense of the word." People who solely rely on Fangraphs rankings, WAR, OPS or the like understand far less about the game and how to evaluate a player's skill set and contributions than they'd like to think. Those numbers are used as one of many tools to evaluate. It's not the final verdict

[Polish Falcons]

Excuse me while I enjoy a hearty laugh. What purpose does anybody serve on the baseball side of an organization when anybody in the world can look at the results of an analytical model to determine who's the most valuable? Because we all know every single variable is calculated in those models (i.e. intelligence, effort, preparation, makeup, etc). Silly me

 

Those same folks at Fangraphs one year ago ranked Lucroy as the 6th best catcher (and they say 6th only because he spells Lind at 1b therefore his value as a catcher drops a bit otherwise he's easily top 5 - "He’s elite in every sense of the word." People who solely rely on Fangraphs rankings, WAR, OPS or the like understand far less about the game and how to evaluate a player's skill set and contributions than they'd like to think. Those numbers are used as one of many tools to evaluate. It's not the final verdict

 

I was just giving one example. There are plenty of other baseball publications projecting that Lucroy is not that good. He was very bad last year and is an injury risk. I am just estimating that his trade value is not nearly as high as some of the Brewers fan trade proposals on this thread suggest. And if he plays in 2016 like he did in 15 then forget about it. Does not seem at all unlikely to me that Lucroy's value is low. Don't see why I need to be laughed at about this view that is not at all unusual outside of brewer nation.

[yfinn6]

I tend to think actual humor is funny, not opposing viewpoints. I don't get that message board tactic.