Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)

[brewcrewdue80]

Currently in OPS by any catcher: Lucroy at .911. Salvador Perez at .807 and Buster Posey at .766 top 3 in baseball.

 

Steven Vogt .737 is just above League avg of .731 and Jt Realmuto is just below at .729. Making the top 5 catchers in OPS.

 

Yadier Molina at .680, Francisco Cerveli .660, Derek Norris .617 And that is it for qualified batters. Picking up Lucroy is improving a team 100% regardless if he slumps his numbers are that much better. It's fairly likely he's going to outperform the guy he's replacing by 3WAR just for half a season. 5+ for next season. He's at a class all his own. Put in perspective he's ahead of his MVP numbers in BA+Slg. equal OB. More triples already, but maybe explains the lesser doubles projection. Simply, he's playing to a top 5 MVP player in the NL. He is ahead of the two batters voted ahead of him in Stanton and McCutchen both hovering in .700s on OPS. and combined at .9WAR between the 2 of them...Lucroy is 2.1 currently.

 

Buster Posey was a #7/9 ranked prospect when he got in the game. Age 29 and cost of 20mil this year. 21+ next 5years through age 34.

 

Jon Lucroy age 30 4mil age 31 5.25mil.

 

If you don't think he's worth a top 10 prospect I can't fathom him worth less than a top 20prospect in the game. You're looking at acquiring a MVP caliber player for 1.5 seasons at a position that offers only a handful of Catchers above league avg batting. The two directly below Lucroy are Perez+Posey locked in long term. Lucroy to Stephen Vogt is the gap we're talking in tradeable Catchers. He is the #1 batter out there to be had in a trade. Value, Production, and Position. It's not even close when it comes to the next position player the entire picture Lucroy provides. Name any batter close to Lucroy.

[MrTPlush]

Lucroy will get a Top 40 prospect no doubt. He is just to good and with the extra year of control he has to get a big time prospect. Past that it all comes down to where the dominos fall. There aren't many Top 20 prospects to be had. Looking at some rankings Devers is probably the only likely Top 20 prospect to be had. There is Gallo, but he has been good this year and reports are the Ramgers aren't motivated for a major upgrade. There is De Leon with the Dodgers, but I have a hard time seeing the Dodgers bail on Grandel after a good 2015.

 

I think we are more likely to see a prospect around #30 and just a lot stronger secondary pieces. Could see a big blockbuster trade involving 5-6 players.

 

Important thing is the fact most teams in contention right now are getting horrid production from the catchers position and a lot of those teams have some good prospects. You have to think with the way Lucroy is hitting and the large market for his services that someone will pay up.

[logan82]

Wilson Ramos of the Nationals has a .961 OPS and is leading the league all of baseball for catchers.

[MrTPlush]

Wilson Ramos of the Nationals has a .961 OPS and is leading the league all of baseball for catchers.

 

In non qualified amount of at-bats. He was only using the 8 qualified catchers. Ramos must be just under the required amount of bats.

[reillymcshane]

I'd love to have Grant Holmes from the Dodgers. Not a top 50 guy right now, but I think he will be shortly. He's putting up good numbers in the hitting-friendly Cal League (3.30 ERA, 63K, 20BB, 60 IP).

 

Add in someone like 1B/OF Cody Bellinger, and that could be an interesting package.

 

No matter what, I'd like to get a good arm with upside. It's risky, but it's also the best way for Milwaukee to get those kinds of players.

[splitterpfj]

Assuming Lucroy is traded, which we have to believe he will be, the only way I'll be disappointed is if neither the Brewers' top draft pick, nor the best player in the Lucroy deal is a pitcher.

 

Neither player has to be a pitcher, you should be getting the best talent you can get, but I'd love to see them come out of this with at least one top arm.

 

Whatever they do in the draft, where I want them to take the best player, regardless of position, I'll hope for the opposite at the top of the Lucroy deal.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Agree about Grant Holmes. That is the guy I would want in a Dodgers trade. Started the season ranked at about the same spot as J.Hader. Only 20yrs old and pitching well in A+ ball. Having him, Hader and Jimmy Nelson as the top 3 starters by mid-2018 is a pretty good start for a winning rotation.

[reillymcshane]

Agree about Grant Holmes. That is the guy I would want in a Dodgers trade. Started the season ranked at about the same spot as J.Hader. Only 20yrs old and pitching well in A+ ball. Having him, Hader and Jimmy Nelson as the top 3 starters by mid-2018 is a pretty good start for a winning rotation.

The other thing about Holmes is that teams often are more willing to give up lower level guys than players close to the majors. The lower the level, the more questions about a guy, the less you count on them for the future. A guy like Urias, for instance, looks major league ready (despite his young age). It's simply harder to give up a guy like that - a player who can help them now (or in the near future). Holmes is a few years away - making letting him go a little easier (I think).

 

And let's face it, a lot of teams want to win now. Giving up an A league player is often easier than a prospect ripe for the majors.

[MrTPlush]

The Dodgers are a great partner if they want to push Grandel out of the starting job seeing they are loaded with pitching talent. They have De Leon, Holmes, and Buehler just to name a few. I imagine Bellinger would be an attractive target for the Brewers too.

 

The Dodgers have the need and prospects to get a trade done. This is the kind of deal I would like to see even if we have to add more on our side. Gives us an elite pitcher, two players on positions of need who look promising, and a high reward lottery ticket. Alvarez could complicate things as the Dodgers paid him $16mil already in the form of a bonus. So they may value him too much because of that.

 

Lucroy

 

for

 

Grant Holmes

Cody Bellinger

Yadiel Alvarez

Kyle Farmer

 

It may sound weak at face value, but Holmes/Bellinger are both still on the rise and Alvarez has big time potential.

[reillymcshane]

The Dodgers are a great partner if they want to push Grandel out of the starting job seeing they are loaded with pitching talent. They have De Leon, Holmes, and Buehler just to name a few. I imagine Bellinger would be an attractive target for the Brewers too.

 

The Dodgers have the need and prospects to get a trade done. This is the kind of deal I would like to see even if we have to add more on our side. Gives us an elite pitcher, two players on positions of need who look promising, and a high reward lottery ticket. Alvarez could complicate things as the Dodgers paid him $16mil already in the form of a bonus. So they may value him too much because of that.

Lucroy

 

for

 

Grant Holmes

Cody Bellinger

Yadiel Alvarez

Kyle Farmer

 

This would be a really nice haul.

 

Another guy you could look at is Walker Bueller (whom you mention above). He was the club's top pick in 2015, but needed TJ, so he's probably out for most, if not all, of this year. But he went into the 2015 season as arguably the top college pitcher, but he struggled with arm issues (eventually leading to the surgery).

 

I don't know that much about Bueller (I'm sure some of the draft experts have opinions), but like the idea of grabbing potential high level talent like him when he's going to cost us the least. Sure it's a risk, but that's part of the game.

 

The Brewers could always take back some salary if the Dodgers needed to gain a little financial relief.

[A Swing and A Drive]

I don't think the Dodgers will be willing to move Yadiel Alvarez in any trade, as they view him in similar light to Urias, talent-wise.

 

I think realistically if we could get 2 of these 3 players to headline a Lucroy deal, we'd be doing very well for ourselves.

 

RHP Grant Holmes

RHP Walker Buehler

1B/OF Cody Bellinger

 

I do agree that Dodgers could be a great trade partner, but I also feel that they value both Grandal and Austin Barnes who are both already in their organization. I think that may give them some pause when considering trading so much talent for Luc.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think the Dodgers will be willing to move Yadiel Alvarez in any trade, as they view him in similar light to Urias, talent-wise.

 

I think realistically if we could get 2 of these 3 players to headline a Lucroy deal, we'd be doing very well for ourselves.

 

RHP Grant Holmes

RHP Walker Buehler

1B/OF Cody Bellinger

 

If the Bueller's arm was progressing as you would expect after TJ, I'd go for this one. I know the pitchers are a few years away, but that's how you get these types of guys.

 

I'd hate giving up Luc, but I think the end game is that he's leaving any way, and you maximize the return while he's at his peak. The guy is raking and teams should cough up a lot for him. And this is not just one year - but two playoff runs. And he's cheap. Plus they extend him, or get compensation (assuming he doesn't get hurt or go in the tank).

[MrTPlush]

I don't think the Dodgers will be willing to move Yadiel Alvarez in any trade, as they view him in similar light to Urias, talent-wise.

 

Agreed, but one can dream. The biggest problem is the fact the Dodgers probably value him much too highly for his issues. He has really bad control at this point. So the Brewers probably would not sacrifice Bellinger or take a lesser prospect than Holmes(Buehler with his elbow concerns...just throwing out random thought) to get him in a deal.

[splitterpfj]

Cleveland - Is getting nothing from their catchers, and needs offense in general. They'll look for an outfielder first, I would guess, and I would also guess their OF issues will prevent them from offering either of their top two prospects, Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, because they're both outfielders - it makes sense to me that the small market team will want to keep those guys.

 

Lucroy fits here, because he's a clear offensive upgrade, and they could fit him in without destroying their payroll. If Cleveland stays in contention, this might be a fit.

 

Mets - D'Arnaud is clear to hit, but still hasn't been cleared to throw a ball. Does that sound like a catcher who's nearing a return to you?

 

New York says they won't add a big contract .... ok then, Lucroy is an upgrade and affordable. The question is - do the Mets have the prospects to make the best offer? I think the Mets are on the fringe here - they'll wait for D'Arnaud for a while longer before they make a move, and in the end, I think they'll be outbid.

 

White Sox - would be a great fit, but they have little in the farm system.

 

Seattle - would be a great fit, but they have little in the farm system.

 

Houston - is back in the mix, and playing much better. If they decide to pursue a catcher, they'll be a serious contender for Lucroy.

 

Texas - same as Houston, if they decide to push for Lucroy, they can get him.

 

Dodgers - as of today, this might be the best fit, depending on which kids they'd let go of. LA has young arms at the top of their prospect list - enough to deal from if they want to.

 

Cubs - with the top catching prospect in the minor leagues sitting right there at AAA .... there's no reason to bet on this. If they do get in the mix, they could make a great offer.

 

Boston - if they go for a catcher, they're a great match. They're getting little from the guys they have, and now they've lost Blake Swihart for the season. Swihart's injury not only stops them from using his bat in either left field or at catcher, but it will also stop them from trying to make him the centerpiece of a trade right now, opening up other possibilities.

 

Does Boston go for a catcher, a left fielder, or more pitching? With Swihart down, left field is back in play - if Boston decides they want a bat, the Brewers and Red Sox could make a huge trade this summer. In a fantasy league atmosphere, Braun and Lucroy could change cities together.

 

Do the Sox meet the price for a player like Lucroy or Julio Teheran, or do they go smaller, keeping their top prospects intact? They've got four dynamite kids at the top of their list right now, but they're also a true World Series contender. This will be fun to watch.

[bill hAll Star]

Gattis is back at C and playing well. Not to say it wouldn't be an upgrade, but Gattis is hitting well enough to probably keep them out of the mix for Lucroy (if they're even still in contention).

[And That]

The Astros are giving regular playing time to Marwin Gonzalez (and Tyler White, and Jake Marisnick, etc.) - if they thought they were getting a good deal for Lucroy, I have no doubt they'd move Gattis back to full-time DH or 1B. Lucroy represents a big offensive upgrade for their lineup.

 

Plus Gattis is bad defensively behind the dish.

[molitor fan]

With Swihart out for the season, I feel his value to the Sox is a bit muted, and love the idea of him being part of a package coming back....I always love nabbing players when their value to you is greater than the value to the team that currently has the player

[Jenkins5]

Cleveland - Is getting nothing from their catchers, and needs offense in general. They'll look for an outfielder first, I would guess, and I would also guess their OF issues will prevent them from offering either of their top two prospects, Bradley Zimmer and Clint Frazier, because they're both outfielders - it makes sense to me that the small market team will want to keep those guys.

 

Lucroy fits here, because he's a clear offensive upgrade, and they could fit him in without destroying their payroll. If Cleveland stays in contention, this might be a fit.

 

My dream trade team! I for one could care less about Zimmer and Frazier because outside of them, they still match up very well!

 

Must have in deal:

1B Bobby Bradley just turned 20 years old in Adv A. He K's too much and his average is down right now but he walks a ton and he hits the crap out of the ball! 14 HR & 14 2B's so far. Even hitting .230 his OBP is .362 and his OPS is .877. His average I do think matches his hit tool right now. One of, if not THE youngest position players in Carolina League.

 

LHP Brady Aiken OR Tristian McKenzie

Both have yet to pitch this season but McKenzie I believe the Brewers were very interested in last year. He got the high HS RHP signing bonus in the draft at 2 million and was very good in 4 outings last season. Extremely projectable and a young exciting kid who won't turn 19 until end of August. Aiken, we all know about so I won't go into details. Overall, Stearns want to young, high ceiling, boom or bust guys.... Bradley and these pitchers are exactly that! Could be stars or they may fall flat on their face but well worth the risk.

 

The third piece would be a throw in guy they mined up like a Freddy Peralta. 20 year old MWL Catcher would be amazing though as the 3rd piece Fransico Mejia. SS Yu-Cheng Chang or Luke Wakamatsu would be other guys I like

 

C Lucroy

for

1B Bradley

SP Aiken or McKenzie

C Fransico Mejia

 

Three extremely high ceiling kids, thats all I can ask for

[MadThinker88]

Cleveland fan here.. No Deal.

Personally I hang up when Bobby Bradley is asked for. He is the RH power bat the Tribe has been looking for for years.

 

Lucroy has bounced back offensively & currently better at bat then the Tribe counterparts, but Gomes (& the currently injured Roberto Perez) are there for defense & controlling the running game. They are also cost controlled.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

Tribe should be talking about Will Smith but that's about it..

[Jenkins5]

Think Aiken would be headliner, Bobby would be #2. With Bradley, high Ks are issue but once again he is extremely young for league. He could top out like a Carter but if he is going to hit .235 with a .360 OBP, .900 OPS, 35+ HRs 100RBIs..... I still think that is a good piece. He hit .270 with .360 OBP with 27 HRs in his age 18/19 season at A ball. After being drafted he hit .340 with a .426 OBP & 8HRs in 38 games.

 

You could and to the deal, but I want Bradley & Aiken/McKenzie (or both will be amazing!)

[adambr2]

Cleveland fan here.. No Deal.

Personally I hang up when Bobby Bradley is asked for. He is the RH power bat the Tribe has been looking for for years.

 

Lucroy has bounced back offensively & currently better at bat then the Tribe counterparts, but Gomes (& the currently injured Roberto Perez) are there for defense & controlling the running game. They are also cost controlled.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

Tribe should be talking about Will Smith but that's about it..

 

Absolutely not worth discussions with Cleveland then as a deal with Bradley as the centerpiece isn't worth two playoff chases of one of the game's best catchers.

 

Bradley still carries a lot of risk as a high A player. He is basically putting up Chris Carter numbers in High A. His ceiling is Adam Dunn, but he's no sure bet to get there.

[Jenkins5]

Cleveland fan here.. No Deal.

Personally I hang up when Bobby Bradley is asked for. He is the RH power bat the Tribe has been looking for for years.

 

Lucroy has bounced back offensively & currently better at bat then the Tribe counterparts, but Gomes (& the currently injured Roberto Perez) are there for defense & controlling the running game. They are also cost controlled.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

Tribe should be talking about Will Smith but that's about it..

 

Bradley bats lefty I believe. However you don't hang up the phone in contention for a proven elite MLB catcher for a 20 year old kid in high A, plus he is still scuffling at plate right now with his .230ba & 77 Ks in 2 months. Now if he 21/22 was lighting up AA or AAA & close. Maybe he'd be untouchable. Right now though, you take that deal & throw in another top guy

[endaround]

Tigers could also be a trade target.

[Jenkins5]

Tigers could also be a trade target.

 

Terrible match through. They may have the worst system in all of baseball. I am not sure if their #5 prospect and on would even make our top 30 Prospect list.

 

Fulmer is going nowhere, he has locked himself in at the MLB level as a staple for a contending team.

 

 

Beau Burrows is a mandatory get in the trade, at 19 he is a power pitcher sitting at 94-95, hard breaking balls, and good command. K's aren't there yet. Not a big frame at 6'0-6'1 200 lbs

 

OF Steven Moya is having good year but really, Brewers don't need him, we have enough AA/AAA/MLB/DL OFs with similar ceilings.

 

OF Christian Stewart has exciting power and walks a ton. He has 16 HRS in the FSL so far and an OBP of .400. He is limited to only LF defensively. He is an option but once again, he he that much better than what we have? Walks more than Roache...

 

SP Jairo Labourt still hasn't figured it out.

 

OF Derek Hill is an athlete who can play defense, run, and take some walks but hit bat isn't very impressive. Young... don't think he gives us anything we don't have already.

 

3B Zach Sheppard another one of the guys I would probably want but his ceiling isn't high enough to be much more than a 3rd or 4th guy in the deal.

 

LHP Tyler Alexander doesn't throw hard but he sure knows how to pitch. Not a bad back end type guy

[Boomer5]

At his current contract, he is the most valuable catcher in baseball. Most of the time, trades on most fan boards look like pipe dreams. Except here. If a team needs a catcher, there isn't a prospect in their system other than maybe a top 5 in all of baseball talent, the Brewers couldn't get for a year and a half of control of Lucroy.