Lucroy Trades/Proposals (part 2)

[Austin Tatious]

Rangers claim they are not looking into dealing for a catcher right now.

 

http://m.rangers.mlb.com/news/article/168267028/rangers-like-catchers-behind-robinson-chirinos

 

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The Rangers know that Robinson Chirinos is going be their Opening Day catcher, and their discussions with other clubs have found the asking price for Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers and Derek Norris of the Padres too high right now.

 

The Rangers could unload an attractive prospect-laden package for Lucroy as the Brewers have been actively scouting the Rangers farm system. But they are not eager to do that, especially because there is a real possibility the prospects could be needed later this summer for starting pitching.

General manager Jon Daniels acknowledged he has talked "a little bit" with other clubs but nothing has really changed. The Rangers' mission with two weeks left in Spring Training is to identify the backup catcher.

 

-----

Continued from:

 

viewtopic.php?p=975891#p975891

 

Original Lead:

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=33647

 

(edit: links added by 1992casey)

[jerichoholicninja]

Rangers claim they are not looking into dealing for a catcher right now.

 

http://m.rangers.mlb.com/news/article/168267028/rangers-like-catchers-behind-robinson-chirinos

 

SURPRISE, Ariz. -- The Rangers know that Robinson Chirinos is going be their Opening Day catcher, and their discussions with other clubs have found the asking price for Jonathan Lucroy of the Brewers and Derek Norris of the Padres too high right now.

 

The Rangers could unload an attractive prospect-laden package for Lucroy as the Brewers have been actively scouting the Rangers farm system. But they are not eager to do that, especially because there is a real possibility the prospects could be needed later this summer for starting pitching.

General manager Jon Daniels acknowledged he has talked "a little bit" with other clubs but nothing has really changed. The Rangers' mission with two weeks left in Spring Training is to identify the backup catcher.

 

Saw that too. Means they will have a new catcher in a few days. Maybe not Lucroy but somebody will be brought in.

[billymac]

Was really hoping Luc and Smith would have been moved for a good base of prospects before the season starts. Have to think that if nothing is done this week that there won't be any major moves until the deadline and hope and pray that everyone performs good and stays healthy......

 

I personally am hoping that if Stearns does have a solid offer in hand that is lower than his asking price that he moves Luc. I don't want to see Luc get another concussion or serious injury and we get nothing for him.

[pacopete4]

It's looking more and more like the Brewers are all in this season

[JohnBriggs12]

I just don't get the thinking that it's a disaster if Lucroy isn't traded now, or even at the deadline or if he plays out his contract with the Brewers.

 

First, the farm system is now a consensus top 10 system and that's before a draft where they have the 5th overall pick and the very likely scenario they are drafting in a similarly attractive spot in 2017 whether Lucroy is here or not. My guess is teams would offer players who are somewhat attractive, but difference making type prospects? Probably not. Lucroy remains very cost effective and should help a young pitching staff, assuming they dump some of the veterans at some point.

 

Finally even if Lucroy completes his current deal and declares FA after 2017, the Brewers undoubtedly will have extended him a QO, assuring a draft pick when he signs elsewhere.

 

Further, Lucroy is not the only player under their control who will have trade value in the next year or two. Other players with good years, will have a market. I'm referring of course to Smith, Gennett, Villar, Jeffress, Peralta, Nelson, Carter, etc.

[Boomer5]

Everyday Luc is on the roster makes the team that much more competitive and you all know my opinion on that. There is still a few weeks before opening day, and that is plenty of time to make a deal.

 

I full expect a deal is done before opening day. To keep him beyond that makes no real sense unless they are hoping for some season ending injuries to contending teams catchers?

[billymac]

I just don't get the thinking that it's a disaster if Lucroy isn't traded now, or even at the deadline or if he plays out his contract with the Brewers.

 

Which won't happen when he gets another concussion, hence the urgency to get something for him. See Mike Matheny and Corey Koskie.

[1992casey]

To maintain board performance, I've split the above posts from the previous thread. Feel free to use this topic continue any discussion from the old thread.

 

If you'd like to catch up, here's a link to the last two pages of that topic:

 

viewtopic.php?f=66&t=33647&start=560

[FVBrewerFan]

Reality is, you aren't going to get a deal done right now for what Lucroy is worth. If he has a good season, you can get much more for him at the trade deadline. Is there a risk that he get injured again? Sure. But I would rather take that risk than get a couple mediocre prospects.

 

Trade decisions during the off-season are almost 100% logical, even cautious. But when teams are in the thick of a pennant race, emotion takes over. That's when you get a better deal.

[brewcrewdue80]

I just don't get the thinking that it's a disaster if Lucroy isn't traded now, or even at the deadline or if he plays out his contract with the Brewers.

 

Which won't happen when he gets another concussion, hence the urgency to get something for him. See Mike Matheny and Corey Koskie.

 

That is some immense fear thinking and concern. Because it happened in the past to some .1% of the history of baseball players it's going to happen to Lucroy. You have 1.6seasons to trade him or as mentioned you QO him and take the pick that comes to you. Just relax those fears. This is post Sliding or bulldosing in to the catcher being allowed. Foul balls in to the face and/or a bad pitch like Liriano just took off the face are the worries and it's just too much to stress about. If the GMs all thought of this risk, the sport would no longer exist.

[MKE81]

At this point the deadline is probably the best place for him to be traded. I never bought the "GMs are waiting to see if he takes a ball of his mask and gets a concussion or not" thought process. He plays catcher. He's 100% going to take tips off his mask the rest of his catching career. As long as he performs to his potential the market will be there for him. Just have to be patient to get a deal worthy of pulling the trigger. I can just as easily see him being traded within the next 10 days as I can by the deadline. I could actually see him being here all season and a team trading for him and giving an extension (especially if a playoff team) but I don't think that will happen.

 

JohnBriggs, why you would have no issue with Lucroy being here for this year and next then offered a QO to get a pick is beyond me. He's an All Star catcher with 2yrs remaining on an extremely cost effective contract and we won't be competing this year or next and we won't be giving him an extension. You 100% trade him as you'll get several great prospects vs one comp draft pick. That's a massive difference in what we get in return. For example, the Brewers had to throw in Fiers to get Phillips in that trade. Meaning it was sitting at Santana, Hader, Houser for Gomez. You'd rather us keep an All Star CF in Gomez through his contract and get a comp draft pick vs having Santana, Hader, Houser?

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Reality is, you aren't going to get a deal done right now for what Lucroy is worth. If he has a good season, you can get much more for him at the trade deadline. Is there a risk that he get injured again? Sure. But I would rather take that risk than get a couple mediocre prospects.

 

Trade decisions during the off-season are almost 100% logical, even cautious. But when teams are in the thick of a pennant race, emotion takes over. That's when you get a better deal.

100% this. Here's hoping Lucroy can bring a package back like Samardzija did for the Cubs.

[logan82]

If Lucroy plays out his contract with the Brewers I will consider that a failure. Huge failure. It would be stupid to hang onto him until then.

[ewitkows]

Not if the packages your being offered aren't worth a 1st round pick

[brewerfan82]

Not if the packages your being offered aren't worth a 1st round pick

 

Of course, but considering I'd argue any of the four guys we got for Gomez/Fiers alone were more valuable than a supplemental 1st round pick, I'd find it very hard to believe that Sterns won't be offered a single package worth a single supplemental pick before Lucroy's contract is up... unless of course he gets injured.

[logan82]

A supplemental pick is pretty low. It wouldn't take much to do better than a supplemental pick. If he isn't traded before the end of his contract, someone made a huge mistake.

[brewcrewdue80]

If I were Vegas the oddsline of a Lucroy Trade would have gone like this:

Winter Meetings 2015/16 8-1

Spring Training/Before Opening Day/After Winter Meetings 12-1

Before 2016 Trade Deadline in Season 3-2

Offseason Winter Meetings 2016/17 3-2

Spring Training/Before Opening Day/After Winter Meetings 6-1

Before 2017 Trade Deadline 2-5

Not Traded at all 5000-1 (If Melvin were owner 3-1 and 5-1 odds Extends Lucroy to 11mil+a year deal 3years+1Option)

Career Injury before Traded 2500-1

[ZBTMP]

A supplemental pick is pretty low. It wouldn't take much to do better than a supplemental pick. If he isn't traded before the end of his contract, someone made a huge mistake.

 

Not to mention the FA compensation system is likely to change prior to the 2017-18 free agency period anyway.

[Kelbysdaddy]

Being so worried that Luc gets injured is ridiculous as far as I'm concerned. You never know what could happen. Let's just say we trade him to the nationals for a package with trea turner. What happens if Luc has a MVP caliber year and trea takes a fastball to the face and is terrified to be in the batters box for the rest of his career? People (on and off) this board will be complaining about how we got screwed in the deal and that sterns should be fired and so on. Remember the greinke trade? When segura was having an all star season, everyone here was so happy and had no problem tooting the brew crew horn about how we got such a great deal and won the trade. Then segura ended up being the segura that everyone complained about and hellwegs arm fell off and suddenly it's the worst trade Doug ever made. Let the GM do his job. Based off the trades he's made this far, I think the kid knows what he's doing.

[Warning Track Power]

What are everyone's thoughts on Lucroy sticking around to help develop the young pitching staff? While I know I would prefer he be dealt, as I think he has more value in bringing back young, controllable talent for when the Brewers are competitive again, I also could see the rationale of him sticking around to help develop young pitchers while also working to groom Nottingham as his heir apparent. Granted, this seems more like a Melvin move than a Stearns move, but if the trade value isn't there the value isn't there.

 

I guess the question becomes, would you be more upset if Lucroy stayed a Brewer for the next 2 seasons or if Lucroy was traded for a lousy package?

[Roderick]

What are everyone's thoughts on Lucroy sticking around to help develop the young pitching staff? While I know I would prefer he be dealt, as I think he has more value in bringing back young, controllable talent for when the Brewers are competitive again, I also could see the rationale of him sticking around to help develop young pitchers while also working to groom Nottingham as his heir apparent. Granted, this seems more like a Melvin move than a Stearns move, but if the trade value isn't there the value isn't there.

 

I guess the question becomes, would you be more upset if Lucroy stayed a Brewer for the next 2 seasons or if Lucroy was traded for a lousy package?

 

It isn't like Maldy hasn't been around the block once or twice, so I don't think the old hand on the tiller of the young pitching staff is that big of a deal.

 

Even if we only had rookie catchers, if the pitching/scouting coaches are doing their job they are still going over the opposing batters strengths/tendencies and what the pitcher should be thinking about throwing in this situation, etc. It all gets called from the bench anyways.

 

Lucroy doesn't even add value calling pitches according to this article, that I don't necessarily agree with how it can really be calculated.

 

http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/12880518/mlb-best-game-caller-dodgers-catcher-aj-ellis

[FVBrewerFan]

I guess the question becomes, would you be more upset if Lucroy stayed a Brewer for the next 2 seasons or if Lucroy was traded for a lousy package?

 

I would be more upset if he was traded for a lousy package. If he stays, at least it sells some tickets, wins a few more games, etc. Plus, it sets a horrible precedent that you can fleece the Brewers when they're desperate to move a player. Teams need to know when they deal with the Brewers, they're more than willing to make a deal but you can't pull one over on them.

[brewerfan82]

I guess the question becomes, would you be more upset if Lucroy stayed a Brewer for the next 2 seasons or if Lucroy was traded for a lousy package?

 

This may be the crux of the argument. What is a "lousy package"? To me, if Gomez and Fiers returns the talent equivalent of four 1st round draft picks (and assuming that's 2.5-3 1st rounders for Gomez and 1-1.5 1st rounders for Fiers), then a lousy package and what I would assume is the lowest reasonable offer even suggested by other teams for Lucroy, who I think is more valuable than Gomez, is the talent equivalent of two 1st rounders. If I'm Stearns, I'm hoping after showing he's healthy and productive, that I could get a package of 3-4 1st round talent players.

 

So while I would be disappointed with two 1st round talents coming back and hope Stearns holds off for more than that if that's all that's being offered right now, since I don't see the next two years as being competitive seasons for the Brewers, I would be hugely disappointed to keep him and end up with only 1 supplemental 1st round pick. Even a single 1st round talent is better than that, so the offers in that time period would have to be ridiculously below market value to be happy with a supplemental pick.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'd be more upset if they held on to him and got nothing but a comp pick back. That's such a Doug Melvin move to have a super talented, cheap, just about to leave his prime player on a losing team.

 

The concussion concern is real. It took Justin Morneau a few years to get over his. Joe Mauer has admitted his concussion has effected his vision and Mauer's came from a foul tip. Lucroy's already had one which means he's more susceptible to others.

[adambr2]

What are everyone's thoughts on Lucroy sticking around to help develop the young pitching staff? While I know I would prefer he be dealt, as I think he has more value in bringing back young, controllable talent for when the Brewers are competitive again, I also could see the rationale of him sticking around to help develop young pitchers while also working to groom Nottingham as his heir apparent. Granted, this seems more like a Melvin move than a Stearns move, but if the trade value isn't there the value isn't there.

 

I guess the question becomes, would you be more upset if Lucroy stayed a Brewer for the next 2 seasons or if Lucroy was traded for a lousy package?

 

Whats a lousy package? If we can only get a top 50, that's better than letting him walk after 2 years, IMO.

 

I don't worry too much about his absence affecting the development of our young pitchers. We have a coaching staff for that. Lucroy calls a good game, but he's not a pitching coach.