Pitching Rotation

[jerichoholicninja]

Counsell's comments on Davies the other day: "he'll make a lot of starts for us this year, just not any in the first 5 games barring injury".

 

Somebody's on a short leash and his initials are MG. If he performs poorly in his first 6-7 starts, the dream he'll recapture trade value by July will be out the window so they might as well move on. Keeping him around just because you have to pay him makes no sense when all it would cost to replace him is a minimum salary arm.

 

...and however much money Garza still has left on his contract. We get it. You don't like Garza. And I doubt his lease is shorter than anyone else's. Anderson and Peralta are both guys who will probably be available this summer and someone's going to get hurt at some point. You're reading way too much into that.

[FVBrewerFan]

Yea, Counsel's point is that it's extremely rare to go through an entire season with only 5 starts getting all the starts, or even a majority of starts. These things take care of themselves. Bigger question is what they do with the #7, 8, 9 starters. You don't want to start the clock on guys like Lopez or Hader this season, but maybe Houser? At the same time, you don't want to hold a guy back if he's been dominant.

[MrTPlush]

Everyone other than Nelson and Jungmann could be on that short leash for Davies to replace him.

 

Wily Peralta is not going to be replaced in the rotation...at least not anywhere near a short leash. I am guessing Jungmann has the shortest leash outside of Garza just because of the way he pitched in September. Anderson is a possibility too depending on what they think of him.

 

Peralta is probably right behind Nelson for safest in the rotation.

[MKE81]

Counsell's comments on Davies the other day: "he'll make a lot of starts for us this year, just not any in the first 5 games barring injury".

 

Somebody's on a short leash and his initials are MG. If he performs poorly in his first 6-7 starts, the dream he'll recapture trade value by July will be out the window so they might as well move on. Keeping him around just because you have to pay him makes no sense when all it would cost to replace him is a minimum salary arm.

Garza also has the best track record of everyone in the rotation. You can point to last year as to why there is little interest in trading for him but one can easily point to the 4yrs prior where he has a 3.63 ERA so not sure why people continue to be short-sighted when it comes to these things (ie khris davis final 2 months vs his entire body of work hence him being traded for a better, younger Santana). He's 32 he's not 36. I'm not saying he's going to be a world beater this year but I see him getting back to the 3.8 ERA area and someone will trade for him. Peralta won't be around long-term with the young group coming up and neither will Chase, who's 28. Davies is already better than Chase. Davies has a great mound presence and pounds the zone - he doesn't care who's standing in the box. You can visibly see it and also feel it by the way he pitches. Chase is an average #4-5 whereas Davies is a good #4-5. With Davies, Lopez, Hader ready between now and next year those 3 spots will be opened up. I'm assuming they're keeping Nelson, Jungmann (if he proves end of last year was solely just a tired arm). That's as it stands now if Stearns adds other top arms that are close then some of this changes.

 

Davies starts in AAA for the sole reason he has options, is young, needs to pitch every 5th day - it makes the most sense. They'll work on moving Garza, Peralta and Chase throughout the year and when that happens, combined with any injuries, you'll see Davies stepping in right away. If 2 spots open due to injury/trade I'd assume you'd see someone like Cravy as opposed to Lopez/Hader as those dudes need to continue to develop as they haven't pitched in AAA yet. There's no rush on them this season.

[bill hAll Star]

Once things go south (and nobody gets hurt), if you're dying to get Davies up to log some MLB innings, you can just have him be the middle relief guy as well. There will be plenty of games where we're down 5-0 in the 3rd and you just let Davies go the final 6 to get his work in.

 

If JohnBriggs' scenario of nobody wanting to trade for a vet at the deadline with $ due in 2017/maybe '18, it's pretty easy to handle.

 

1. Call everyone and offer Garza at face value.

2. Near deadline, if every single team in the league claims they don't want to risk the money, choose best prospect package and offer to pay most or all of the contract. If you were going to get stuck with him anyways, you might as well pay the $ to get the prospect in.

[FVBrewerFan]

Garza also has the best track record of everyone in the rotation. You can point to last year as to why there is little interest in trading for him but one can easily point to the 4yrs prior where he has a 3.63 ERA so not sure why people continue to be short-sighted when it comes to these things

 

I don't think anyone is short-sighted, just realistic. Most recent history carries more weight than 4 years ago. That's not just my opinion, it's the opinion of every MLB team in the league, or they would have found a way to trade for him. IF they really believed 2015 was a fluke season. I'm sure the Brewers would have been very flexible with the money.

 

Nobody knows. He could rebound, or he could have another disastrous season. It isn't necessarily the end, but this is what the end looks like for a starting pitcher.

 

But then you mention how Davies is clearly better than Anderson already. So in this case, you're using an extremely small sample for Davies. He hasn't had enough starts to get a "book" on him yet. He hasn't had to face the same team 3 or 4 times. I like Davies too, but it's way too early to lock him in as a good 4/5 for the next 6+ years. I hope you're right though!

[logan82]

They are not keeping him just because they are paying him. They are keeping him around because they may be able to get something for him if he pitches better this year.

 

It makes no sense at all to let the young guys pitch and burn service time in a rebuilding season just to win a handful more games. I know some people want to see the Brewers try to win as many games as possible but that's not happening.

[1992casey]

if you're dying to get Davies up to log some MLB innings, you can just have him be the middle relief guy as well.

 

If the Brewers were contending and it were the best way to help the major league team win, I could see Davies as a bullpen option. But under current circumstances, I think it'd be best for Davies and the team if he pitched 180 innings. Since he's pretty much crowded out as of today, a combination of AAA and the majors would work for me.

 

Jungmann's another guy where innings should be a priority at whatever level he happens to get them. He has options available, so I wouldn't be against a relatively short leash. But I'd like to see him pitch through September without tiring out, hopefully matching or exceeding last year's 179 innings.

[JohnBriggs12]

They are not keeping him just because they are paying him. They are keeping him around because they may be able to get something for him if he pitches better this year.

 

It makes no sense at all to let the young guys pitch and burn service time in a rebuilding season just to win a handful more games. I know some people want to see the Brewers try to win as many games as possible but that's not happening.

 

That's the really the issue but I maintain, what would they really get for Garza, even if he's a respectable 6-8 with a 3.85 ERA in the middle of July with peripherals to match? What team out there would take on the remaining $16-17 million and give up anything of value for essentially a #4 starter on a good team? None of course. Sure the Brewers could eat $8-10 million of that to get a slightly better return, but aren't teams in serious contention going to prefer better options in the trade market? It's not like his horrible 2015 can be erased from the record book either. So they may end up thinking they can deal him, find out they can't and end up keeping him the entire season and trying their luck after the year. Again keeping in mind that middling starters had trouble finding jobs when teams didn't have to give up any talent to sign them.

[brewerfan82]

I maintain, what would they really get for Garza, even if he's a respectable 6-8 with a 3.85 ERA in the middle of July with peripherals to match? What team out there would take on the remaining $16-17 million and give up anything of value for essentially a #4 starter on a good team? None of course. Sure the Brewers could eat $8-10 million of that to get a slightly better return, but aren't teams in serious contention going to prefer better options in the trade market? It's not like his horrible 2015 can be erased from the record book either. So they may end up thinking they can deal him, find out they can't and end up keeping him the entire season and trying their luck after the year. Again keeping in mind that middling starters had trouble finding jobs when teams didn't have to give up any talent to sign them.

 

Last year the Pirates traded for JA Happ when he had a 4.64 ERA and was coming off 4 straight seasons of 4.22+ ERAs (5.35, 4.79, 4.56, and 4.22). They weren't taking on the additional year that a team would have to take on with Garza, but from a value standpoint, the Bluejays then went and gave Happ a 3 year, $36m contract this offseason. Teams value (over-value?) a veteran arm they can rely on and if Garza provides a half season of sub-4 ERA that makes last year look like a fluke, having him for an additional year at $12.5m is close to market value.

 

I'm not saying we'd get a great return necessarily for him, but I wouldn't think it's too far fetched that he would draw some interest if he's pitching well.

[rwa12]

There always seems to be a market for Garza like pitchers at the deadline (assuming he is performing adequately). IMO, deadline deals don't worry tremendously about future salary, or longterm viability. They solely want an arm for half a season (along with the playoff ideally). The deadline is also the time where you get surprise deals, with more coming in than expected. GMs are under pressure to find the last piece, and common sense can float away for moments. Garza has little value in the offseason, as GMs have time to think...and aren't desperate.

 

Essentially, if you have time to plan a menu and eat...you make reasonable decisions. When it's 2am and you're starving. You talk yourself into gas station sushi, you'll worry about the likely food poisoning later on. Matt Garza is gas station sushi.

[FVBrewerFan]

Classic. Does that make Yuni the hot dog from the movie theatre in that Seinfeld episode?

[logan82]

Classic. Does that make Yuni the hot dog from the movie theatre in that Seinfeld episode?

Yuni was the dog turd you had to eat to win $1m.

[djoctagone]

rotation set (barring injuries or transactions): wily peralta, jimmy nelson, matt garza, taylor jungmann and chase anderson.

[pacopete4]

Is it just me or does Wily Peralta look even bigger this year? And not in a good way...

[JohnBriggs12]

rotation set (barring injuries or transactions): wily peralta, jimmy nelson, matt garza, taylor jungmann and chase anderson.

 

The order should be

 

1. Nelson

 

2. Jungmann

 

3. Peralta

 

4. Anderson

 

5. Garza

 

Nelson was their best starter in 2015. In fact, he was the only guy still around that managed to stay healthy enough and pitch well enough to stay in the rotation all season. That should be the criteria for opening day starter. Jungmann tailed off in September, but there was a significant stretch where he pitched well enough to be on some ROY ballots and he's been the sharpest so far this spring. Peralta's the "dean" of the staff but he's coming off an injury riddled subpar year, hasn't looked sharp this spring and is closer to a number 5 than a number 1. Garza is coming off a year where he was arguably the second worst starting pitcher in the NL, behind only Lohse who still hasn't found a job. Anderson could be by default #3, but being the new face and not all that sharp this spring either, its hard to justify moving him up the pecking order any further.

[TooLiveBrew]

Is it just me or does Wily Peralta look even bigger this year? And not in a good way...

This pic is from the JS Online spring training blog, from about a month ago (http://www.jsonline.com/blogs/sports/370019671.html). He looks the same to me.

 

http://i.imgur.com/qAymnWS.jpg

[3and2Fastball]

Wily Peralta named opening day starter. Hopefully he has a great season!