Pitching Rotation

[And That]

Do you have a link for that specific information? Everywhere I have found it they explain it as games pitched which does not specify starting/relieving. Maybe it was just assumed as starts because why would one expect him to suck so bad to relieve?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

• -2018 option vests at $13M if Garza 1) has 110 starts in 2014-17, 2) has 115 innings in 2017 and 3) is not on the disabled list at end of 2017 season
  -club holds $5M option for 2018 if it does not vest at $13M
  -club may exercise 2018 option at $1M if Garza spends more than 130 days on disabled list in any 183-day period from 2014 to 2017

[adambr2]

Do you have a link for that specific information? Everywhere I have found it they explain it as games pitched which does not specify starting/relieving. Maybe it was just assumed as starts because why would one expect him to suck so bad to relieve?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

• -2018 option vests at $13M if 2) has 115 innings in 2017

 

Bullpen calling Garza's name next season.

[pogokat]

unless he rights the ship in majestic manor, garza will be released before he can get near that option.

 

If he pitches like he did when he was 27 next year, he will be traded. No chance he gets that option while with the Brewers.

[MVP2110]

Do you have a link for that specific information? Everywhere I have found it they explain it as games pitched which does not specify starting/relieving. Maybe it was just assumed as starts because why would one expect him to suck so bad to relieve?

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/milwaukee-brewers/

 

• -2018 option vests at $13M if 2) has 115 innings in 2017

 

Bullpen calling Garza's name next season.

 

I believe all 3 criteria have to be met for the option to vest

[Boomer5]

Garza isnt starting opening day unless he lights it up in spring. Opening day is supposed to be reward.

 

If Garza starts opening day, the T word is firmly in play.

[brewerfan82]

To be fair, I think everyone here has a slightly biased point of view of just how bad Garza is. Before last year he had 8 straight sub-4 ERA seasons. So we're one bad year away from him likely being the obvious choice to be the opening day starter amongst this group. It's just hard for us to see that because we just had to endure him and Lohse being absolutely awful up close for a full season. I wouldn't be that surprised to see him bounce back and be at least a serviceable starter next season. Not saying he should be the opening day starter after last year, and it would be a little odd after that kind of season, but I also don't think it's a totally ridiculous idea either. It's not like anyone else on the staff was lights out last year and/or has an extended resume of big league success that warrants it. I also don't think whoever starts on opening day says anything one way or the other about whether or not the organization is trying to win games this year. Unless they give it to Capuano or something really strange like that

[brewcrewdue80]

Garza starting opening day gives 35 Games started a possibility. No way does he start Opening day. His option is all the more reason to have him be #5 but I'll peg him as being #4 because as schedules go early season, the #5 SP doesn't have to pitch all too often.

Nelson should be Opening Day SP. Peralta #2. Let's put Anderson #3 Garza #4 and Jungmann/Davies #5 when it is figured out....Lopez may bump in to rotation too. Team should just adopt 6man rotation since some Pitchers are to be on Innings Limits. That 6 starters would also reduce Garza's starts as the season wore on. If I were manager and there's 8 battling for top 5 I'd say well, 5 of you go out there and make me pencil in a 5man rotation. But for now it's 6man. Of course if one Starter has a fluky outing or gets injured, it'll be easy to put that Tomorrow's starter in and we have our 5man rotation in that situation until it rotates through 6men again.

 

As to Garza's trade value if he reverts to form again to career avgs, Mike Fiers was traded rather easily. I'd put Garza's career norms to be about that. The pricetag is higher so not as well a return but the way he's read here, we don't want any return just rid that contract.

[MrTPlush]

Maybe it is just me, but in a season where wins don't necessarily matter I am not sure I care too much if they let Garza start opening day. I still have to watch him every 5 days regardless. There is the option year concern, but at this point I am pretty confident Garza will never stay productive/and or healthy enough to start enough games to do it. There isn't a big difference between having him at #1 or #4 start wise.

 

I just find it surprising they would consider such a move after he got yanked out of the rotation last year and had a fit. Regardless oh well...even if the option year vests I won't care. There will be room in the payroll and it isn't my money. If Attanasio wants to risk giving him $13mil that is his problem.

 

I do have a question though, cant we just: If he is productive between now and next July we can just trade him...not our problem then. OR we can just move him to the pen for a better option since he isn't being productive or flat out release him...also not our problem then. Seems like no matter what it should be easy to avoid the option vesting.

[superfly]

Does it really matter about his option? It's not like we're strapped for cash, 13M isn't bad for a guy whose track record is good...if for some reason the team starts out hot you can throw it right out the window in my opinion.

[MrTPlush]

Does it really matter about his option? It's not like we're strapped for cash, 13M isn't bad for a guy whose track record is good...if for some reason the team starts out hot you can throw it right out the window in my opinion.

 

Yah what does one need to get $13mil these days? Low 4 ERA type stats?

[CheezWizHed]

Garza's big bugaboo has always been his health. That is why the starts and innings qualifiers are there. If he is healthy enough to start another 58 starts in two years (which would also indicate that he isn't stinking up the joint if the Brewers allow him that many starts), he is probably worth $13M.

 

And if he reverts back to his sub-4.00 days, another year of control might increase his value. (Ok, I did say "might").

[monty57]

Does it really matter about his option? It's not like we're strapped for cash, 13M isn't bad for a guy whose track record is good...if for some reason the team starts out hot you can throw it right out the window in my opinion.

 

It matters if he sucks.

 

I don't think there is much chance the option vests, but I certainly don't want him getting paid $13M putting up a 5.50 ERA when we should have plenty of pre-arby guys ready by then who could do better for league minimum.

 

I don't think he'll be a Brewer past July. If he starts out poorly, he'll get cut. If he starts out hot, he'll get traded. The way he whined last year when asked to go to the bullpen, I wouldn't risk giving him that option.

[Ennder]

unless he rights the ship in majestic manor, garza will be released before he can get near that option.

 

If he pitches like he did when he was 27 next year, he will be traded. No chance he gets that option while with the Brewers.

 

 

If he pitches like he has every single season of his career outside of last year he will be traded. Garza still has decent value as a mid season trade unless he is awful like last year. Seems more likely that last year was just a fluke considering pitchers have fluke bad/good years like that all the time. I mean at 32 he could just be done, it happens sometimes. More times than not it is more gradual than just falling completely off though. If he has any sort of positive start to the season he'll have value for a contender.

[JohnBriggs12]

unless he rights the ship in majestic manor, garza will be released before he can get near that option.

 

If he pitches like he did when he was 27 next year, he will be traded. No chance he gets that option while with the Brewers.

 

 

If he pitches like he has every single season of his career outside of last year he will be traded. Garza still has decent value as a mid season trade unless he is awful like last year. Seems more likely that last year was just a fluke considering pitchers have fluke bad/good years like that all the time. I mean at 32 he could just be done, it happens sometimes. More times than not it is more gradual than just falling completely off though. If he has any sort of positive start to the season he'll have value for a contender.

 

OK, you are a team in a pennant race in July and you need a starter. There's one out there with a 3.95 ERA who had a terrible 2015 and has a contract through 2017 paying him another $16 million or so. Is that any better than you can do from within for a lot less? Why take that risk? Certainly there will be better, cheaper options out there. Unless Garza's having close to a career year, he's trade value is very minimal.

[brewerfan82]

Last year the Pirates traded for JA Happ when he had a 4.64 ERA and was coming off 4 straight seasons of 4.22+ ERAs (5.35, 4.79, 4.56, and 4.22). They weren't taking on the additional year that a team would have to take on with Garza, but from a value standpoint, the Bluejays then went and gave Happ a 3 year, $36m contract this offseason. Teams value (over-value?) a veteran arm they can rely on and if Garza provides a half season of sub-4 ERA that makes last year look like a fluke, having him for an additional year at $12.5m is close to market value.

 

I'm not saying we'd get a great return necessarily for him, but I wouldn't think it's too far fetched that he would draw some interest if he's pitching well.

[MadScientist]

unless he rights the ship in majestic manor, garza will be released before he can get near that option.

 

If he pitches like he did when he was 27 next year, he will be traded. No chance he gets that option while with the Brewers.

 

 

If he pitches like he has every single season of his career outside of last year he will be traded. Garza still has decent value as a mid season trade unless he is awful like last year. Seems more likely that last year was just a fluke considering pitchers have fluke bad/good years like that all the time. I mean at 32 he could just be done, it happens sometimes. More times than not it is more gradual than just falling completely off though. If he has any sort of positive start to the season he'll have value for a contender.

 

OK, you are a team in a pennant race in July and you need a starter. There's one out there with a 3.95 ERA who had a terrible 2015 and has a contract through 2017 paying him another $16 million or so. Is that any better than you can do from within for a lot less? Why take that risk? Certainly there will be better, cheaper options out there. Unless Garza's having close to a career year, he's trade value is very minimal.

 

Why take the risk of bringing up a guy from the minors in the heat of a pennant race when some rookie struggles might cost you the playoffs? If you can get a serviceable back of the rotation guy for not too much, why not pull the trigger on the deal. Unless he melts down the stretch, having him for the next year isn't a bad thing.

[MVP2110]

So based on the spring rotation looks like were setting up Peralta Nelson Garza Jungmann Anderson

[brewcrewdue80]

So based on the spring rotation looks like were setting up Peralta Nelson Garza Jungmann Anderson

 

This is what I read somewhere that the rotation is going to be this way. No Davies.

 

With Garza, part of trading for him which I'm sure will happen is his 5million:potential 1million option. Either or that is well below standard. That is going to have value so long as he appears 4.5era or less in results.

[yoshii8]

I'm definitely more excited about our AAA rotation with Lopez, Hader, Davies and Houser. Should be fun to follow.

[dlk9s]

Random anecdote:

 

My son's YMCA basketball coach was Tyler Thornburg's HS baseball coach. Said Tyler was the best CF he has ever seen at that level. Added that he tries to get up to Milwaukee a couple times a season to catch a game and that he stays with Tyler when he visits (assuming these are times Tyler is with the big league club).

[JohnBriggs12]

Counsell's comments on Davies the other day: "he'll make a lot of starts for us this year, just not any in the first 5 games barring injury".

 

Somebody's on a short leash and his initials are MG. If he performs poorly in his first 6-7 starts, the dream he'll recapture trade value by July will be out the window so they might as well move on. Keeping him around just because you have to pay him makes no sense when all it would cost to replace him is a minimum salary arm.

[Boomer5]

Everyone other than Nelson and Jungmann could be on that short leash for Davies to replace him.

[brewmann04]

I like our 3 a and 2 a rotation and yes I am sure some guys will be on short leashes which is good.

[Outlander]

If they wait until mid May they get another year of service with Davies. While it might not play a factor down the road there is no real rush to have him start now.

[monty57]

If they wait until mid May they get another year of service with Davies. While it might not play a factor down the road there is no real rush to have him start now.

 

That would be a good time frame to see how Garza has pitched. Hopefully he's pitching well, and Davies can be injury insurance until Garza is traded in July, but if Garza stinks for the first month-and-a-half, I'm fine with dumping him and eating the salary and I'd guess Attanasio will be as well.