Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves

[JohnBriggs12]

Best by far was Segura/Wagner for a controllable rotation arm, a veteran bat and an exciting hitting prospect. Honorable mention was Sardinas for Ramos. Ramos looks like a solid 4th OF at worst and maybe he could become a Parra type. Sardinas is a nice athlete but lacks a regular's bat.

 

Worst is a tie between Lind for 3 undistinguished pitching prospects and Rogers for a guy with contact issues. Hitting and making consistent contact is at such a premium these that you can't just virtually give away a middle of the order accomplished hitter (and your lone LH bat with pop) to save such a modest amount of salary and bolster your rookie league teams. Rogers deal could be defended assuming you held on to Lind, but they didn't. Rogers is a self made player who defied odds to get to the big leagues because he knows how to hit. That is a rare commodity. There's plenty of guys that swing hard and miss a lot and occasionally hit HR like Broxton. But guys that can hit tough pitching in tough situations are rare. Rogers proved he can often facing tough relievers late in games off the bench.

 

Honorable mention for worst goes to the Davis deal. The one saving grace of that is they did get a guy back in Nottingham who plays a position they lacked in the system and appears to have a bat that will play as he advances. But it's going to be tough watching Davis pile up the HR especially if Santana isn't matching him, and the return from the deal is still a ways away.

[MKE81]

Best by far was Segura/Wagner for a controllable rotation arm, a veteran bat and an exciting hitting prospect. Honorable mention was Sardinas for Ramos. Ramos looks like a solid 4th OF at worst and maybe he could become a Parra type. Sardinas is a nice athlete but lacks a regular's bat.

 

Worst is a tie between Lind for 3 undistinguished pitching prospects and Rogers for a guy with contact issues. Hitting and making consistent contact is at such a premium these that you can't just virtually give away a middle of the order accomplished hitter (and your lone LH bat with pop) to save such a modest amount of salary and bolster your rookie league teams. Rogers deal could be defended assuming you held on to Lind, but they didn't. Rogers is a self made player who defied odds to get to the big leagues because he knows how to hit. That is a rare commodity. There's plenty of guys that swing hard and miss a lot and occasionally hit HR like Broxton. But guys that can hit tough pitching in tough situations are rare. Rogers proved he can often facing tough relievers late in games off the bench.

 

Honorable mention for worst goes to the Davis deal. The one saving grace of that is they did get a guy back in Nottingham who plays a position they lacked in the system and appears to have a bat that will play as he advances. But it's going to be tough watching Davis pile up the HR especially if Santana isn't matching him, and the return from the deal is still a ways away.

 

Is it also going to be tough watching Davis put up a 245/305 line while runners walk from 1b to 3b on balls hit right at him? Santana doesn't have to match Davis in HRs to be more productive than him. Rogers was a solid backup, but he's just that. A backup. Broxton is a true CF, what this team lacked, who plays solid defense while also having pop and speed...can be a quality backup. And you have no idea what Stearns was offered for Lind - if it was a AA or AAA prospect(s) maybe it didn't make sense given the other players he expected to sign or trade for. Which might have provided a great opportunity to trade him for 3 very young, raw talents that pound the zone for a cheap price tag. You don't need a sexy return on every trade to accomplish your goal of building a pipeline of talent at every level.

[MKE81]

Well if you treat the Mariner trades as two separate events:

 

Best: Flores for Sardinas. Trading a 23 year old who still looks to be years from being even valuable utility infielder for a 23 year old OFer who is looks to be a solid 4 OFer right now if not better is a steal.

 

Worst: Lind for three short soft tossing right handed pitcher in rookie ball, one of which is injured. Lind had around $6 million in excess value. At best the three arms coming back are worth $3 million. You can get much better prospects for $6 million in the international market.

 

This is why I believe these two trades are basically two halves of the same trade. Now if you combine those, then:

 

Best: Segura/Wagner for Anderson/Hill/Diaz. This is not a lopsided trade but it was moving the risk of Segura who may have been non-tendere at the end of next season if he repeats his 2015 and using the huge amount of salary room to add talent to the system. Anderson is the type of pticher conending teams will love to have come July to coer for back end rotation injuries, so (assuming Anderson is healthy) he could add soem decent pieces.

 

Worst: The trades that haven't happened. Braun is not worth his contract and the further into teh contract the less value he has making it more of a millstone. Smith is a pitcher and so injury concerns are always at the forefront. Lucroy needs to be moved and hopefully some catching in spring training will show he's healthy enough to be traded.

 

Braun not worth his contract? Have you seen what other players not as productive as him are currently getting not to mention what players will be getting over the next couple years? Everyone knows Lucroy is going to be traded, and most likely Smith as well, but listing those as the worst moves because they haven't happened yet doesn't make sense. He's not trading them just to make a trade. When the right offer is on the table the trigger will be pulled

[Boomer5]

Well if you treat the Mariner trades as two separate events:

 

Best: Flores for Sardinas. Trading a 23 year old who still looks to be years from being even valuable utility infielder for a 23 year old OFer who is looks to be a solid 4 OFer right now if not better is a steal.

 

Worst: Lind for three short soft tossing right handed pitcher in rookie ball, one of which is injured. Lind had around $6 million in excess value. At best the three arms coming back are worth $3 million. You can get much better prospects for $6 million in the international market.

 

This is why I believe these two trades are basically two halves of the same trade. Now if you combine those, then:

 

Best: Segura/Wagner for Anderson/Hill/Diaz. This is not a lopsided trade but it was moving the risk of Segura who may have been non-tendere at the end of next season if he repeats his 2015 and using the huge amount of salary room to add talent to the system. Anderson is the type of pticher conending teams will love to have come July to coer for back end rotation injuries, so (assuming Anderson is healthy) he could add soem decent pieces.

 

Worst: The trades that haven't happened. Braun is not worth his contract and the further into teh contract the less value he has making it more of a millstone. Smith is a pitcher and so injury concerns are always at the forefront. Lucroy needs to be moved and hopefully some catching in spring training will show he's healthy enough to be traded.

 

Braun will be traded once he proves he is healthy and they can work out some sort math issue with us taking back a contract in exchange for better prospects. Coming off back surgery, it would be wise for any team to take nor the Brewers selling low. His contract is very high but with JHey at $190M it isn't THAT bad.

[Oldcity]

Braun is probably slightly overpaid. I was hoping Gordon/Upton/Cespedes would get more in free agency, making Braun look better in comparison. Still, he's not an albatross. If the Brewers need to throw in money in order to get a better return, they definitely should do so.

 

I would like to see Braun, Lucroy, and Smith traded ASAP. Smith could get hurt at any time, as could any pitcher. Lucroy also plays a physically demanding position and therefore holding on to him too long is risky. Braun has nagging injuries often, so it's possible his value could go down soon, too. The Brewers can't risk being stuck with that contract for a player who is hurt/in steep decline.

 

I'd like to see those three traded, along with Peralta, but Peralta isn't quite as urgent as the other three.

[Boomer5]

Braun is probably slightly overpaid. I was hoping Gordon/Upton/Cespedes would get more in free agency, making Braun look better in comparison. Still, he's not an albatross. If the Brewers need to throw in money in order to get a better return, they definitely should do so.

 

I would like to see Braun, Lucroy, and Smith traded ASAP. Smith could get hurt at any time, as could any pitcher. Lucroy also plays a physically demanding position and therefore holding on to him too long is risky. Braun has nagging injuries often, so it's possible his value could go down soon, too. The Brewers can't risk being stuck with that contract for a player who is hurt/in steep decline.

 

I'd like to see those three traded, along with Peralta, but Peralta isn't quite as urgent as the other three.

 

All of those 3 will be traded shortly, with maybe Braun being a bit of a challenge but not impossible.

 

Peralta is interesting because who are we trading? Wily of last year or 2014? Im not sure teams can agree on a value for him until he proves himself.

 

Luc is of course gone, Im sure its just a fine tuning of offers, but it would make way too much sense to trade him before getting too deep into spring.

 

Smith should be traded soon too. Why keep him? If he gets the closer job, he will command closer level play and what good is that? With relief arms going at a super premium how in the world can we pass up a trade in that general amount?

 

Braun is about proving he is healthy and finding a contract fit. Its going to be a complicated trade. They stocked up on OF'ers for a reason, and I see no reason why you'd want a team of cast offs and one guy who is plus value. That makes no sense.

[superfly]

Best - Segura trade. Diaz is going to be a major league player and I believe Chase Anderson will be the Brewers best pitcher over the next 2 seasons and will be flipped for something better than Segura at that point.

 

Worst - Kris Davis trade. I think by the all star break he would have had more value than he has now.

 

I agree the Davis trade was pretty bad, but Lind was worse. Nottingham may not stay at catcher but at least he has a tool that projects to the major league level and is a legitimate prospect. The guys in the Lind trade are just guys you'd have to round out a minor league pitching staff.

 

 

How does anyone know if the Lind trade was bad? We won't know for some time. Disregarding the players we got in return, Lind may not even have any value...he's in his 30s and is injury prone. Back injuries don't go away as you age, they get worse.

 

I doubt Stearns threw a dart at the wall filled with Seattle prospects and randomly landed on those three pitchers...there's something there we don't know just yet in my opinion.

[CheezWizHed]

How does anyone know if the Lind trade was bad?

 

No one does. Nor do we know any of the trades were good. The OP was asking for our opinions not facts.

[EauClaireNWL]

I'm fine with most of the moves Stearns made. When you're looking at 55 to 75 wins per season, you still suck at the end of the day. The best chance the previous roster had at doing anything was in 2014 before they completely fell off a cliff in the second half. It was fools gold at best and it was good to see Melvin shifting into Stearns that now was the right time to tear it down with Pittsburgh, Chicago, and St. Louis looking to be playoff contenders for the immediate future at least.

 

The major league roster might be the division punching bag for the next two years, but at the end of the day, this is what was going to need to happen if they were ever going to get back to being a competitive team again. Whether the squad this year has it's worst season since 2002 and lose over 100 games, or some of our youngsters step up and some how claw us to around 70 wins, this is still a rebuild for the future now. I'm just glad the ball began rolling on it last year and we can at least look forward to some moves and prospects working their way up and potentially contributing to this team being a contender again in a few years instead of band aid moves trying to compete now that Melvin had been trying to do since 2011.

[Baldkin]

Fangraphs Dave Cameron gives the Brewers an 'A' for their offseason moves -- one of only 2 teams to be graded that high.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/grading-the-offseasons-for-all-30-teams/

 

2. Milwaukee Brewers

Grade: A

 

If you want to see a blueprint for how to rebuild, look at what the Brewers did this winter. David Stearns first winter at the helm produced a steady stream of smart risks, taking flyers on guys like Rymer Liriano and Ramon Flores who could prove worthwhile and are at least deserving of a look. The Jean Seugra trade not only brought back a quality prospect, but a young pitcher who can step right into the rotation. They landed a real prospect for Khris Davis, who was in Domingo Santana‘s way, and potentially made their team no worse in the short-term while adding to their stockpile of long-term talent. If you want to knock them for anything, this might have been a good winter to sell Will Smith, and perhaps their asking price on Jonathan Lucroy is too high, but it’s hard not to love the moves they did make this winter.

 

The Brewers are going to be bad for a while, but the foundation of the next contending Brewers team was laid this winter.

[LouisEly]

Still trying to figure out why people think the Brewers were/are going to get a great return for a player who has not yet proven he can catch again after a significant concussion, especially after Mauer's recent remarks.

 

Best move: sometimes the best moves you make are the moves you don't make - glad they didn't sell low on Garza, Braun or Lucroy as there is a very good chance they will be worth more come July than right now. Honorable mention - going after left-handed bats to try to balance the lineup.

 

Worst move: the Davis trade - he did exactly what you hope a player will do in his second full season, he improved. He adjusted to major league pitching more than major league pitching adjusted to him, and that bodes well for his future. This isn't the PED 2000's, power doesn't grow on trees (or in lab) anymore. I don't worry about guys who improve from their first full season to their second, I worry about guys who regress in their 2nd full season. There is just as good of a chance that Davis keeps improving and that Nottingham doesn't pan out as there is of the opposite.

[RobertR]

Worst: Lind. Lottery tickets are a bad investment strategy. I think the odds of any one of the three making it to the bigs is a long shot much less having any type of value. There's a good chance that Stearns traded a decent major leaguer for nothing.

 

Best: Segura/Wagner. Stearns moved a guy blocking a top flight prospect and managed to get an interesting prospect back, who might turn out to have the most long term value, but also the best current player in the deal. That's a coup.

[djoctagone]

best: joe block for jeff levering

 

worst: one year before possibly gaining use of the dh, trading khris davis

[Boomer5]

Worst: Lind. Lottery tickets are a bad investment strategy. I think the odds of any one of the three making it to the bigs is a long shot much less having any type of value. There's a good chance that Stearns traded a decent major leaguer for nothing.

 

Best: Segura/Wagner. Stearns moved a guy blocking a top flight prospect and managed to get an interesting prospect back, who might turn out to have the most long term value, but also the best current player in the deal. That's a coup.

 

Agreed. I hope the model of taking on bad contracts in exchange for prospects continues. Sadly, there is only one Dave Stewart.

 

The Lind trade was the football equivalent of trading a 3rd round pick for 3 7th round picks. Too cute even IF one of them develops IMHO. Im willing to give him a mulligan though because the Diamondback trade was a good one and we should have some insanely good drafts coming up.

[Boomer5]

best: joe block for jeff levering

 

worst: one year before possibly gaining use of the dh, trading khris davis

 

I do think the Davis trade was pretty bad, especially since it seems 50/50 Nottingham stays at C and Davis' power is legitimate and rare.

 

Is it confirmed the DH is coming to the NL?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Is it confirmed the DH is coming to the NL?

 

 

Based on everything that's been said, I think it seems likely, but it is not yet actually confirmed.

[fondybrewfan]

Didn't the commish recently say that adding the DH wasn't high on his priority list? I don't think it is imminent at all.

[pacopete4]

DH next season? No way. I could maybe believe 2018 if they came out with it this season but they have to give these NL teams a heads up before they would make such a move. It really impacts a roster.

 

Either way, Davis being traded is still fine because we'll just slide Braun to the DH and let him mash. Nottingham gives us a chance to have our successor after Lucroy. I'll take that. Plus we obtained a pitcher in that deal and another through a waiver claim. I like it.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Didn't the commish recently say that adding the DH wasn't high on his priority list? I don't think it is imminent at all.

 

Yes, John Mozeliak (Cardinals GM) had mentioned it as a possibility as soon as 2017, and then Manfred came out a couple of days later and said that there was nothing imminent:

 

The most likely result on the designated hitter for the foreseeable future is the status quo. I know John Mozeliak talked about it, and when you have any National League Club talking about it, it's interesting. But I think the vast majority of clubs in the National League want to stay where they are.

[MrTPlush]

Best: The Segura trade. Took on part of a bad contract for a middle infielder one good season from being Top 100 prospect. He looks like he can be a really good player at 2B for us some day. They also got a solid back end of the rotation starter that they could possibly flip in the future for more prospects.

 

Worst:

It is a toss up between the Lind and Davis trades. I don't like the Lind trade because of the lottery ticket return. Overwelming chance they all end up as nothing. Could have gotten some future bullpen piece for Lind. Lower ceiling, but can never enough guys to throw in the bullpen.

The Davis trade is a bit harder to figure out. If Nottingham stays at catcher GREAT. If he has to move over to first it takes away a giant chunk of the value we are getting back.

 

That is just how I take them at face value in the present. Most of the time trades never work out how you think they will. Everyone thought the Segura trade was great when it was made and we got our offensive+glove SS we wanted, but instead we got two bust pitchers and a borderline starter at SS. Will be interesting to see which moves work out in the end for us and which ones turn out to be nothing. Out of all these guys we are getting excited about one is destined to never be anything at the MLB level.

[MadScientist]

Best - Segura. Cheap back end starter and a legit prospect for Segura, a low-level prospect and eating part of a bad contract.

 

Worst - K-Rod. Not a whole lot for a guy closer who has been a all-star and converted 82 of 89 the last two years. If Nottingham doesn't pan out, the Davis trade will be the worst.

[reillymcshane]

Worst: Signing Middlebrooks. Every time I see the guy play he looks awful. He's been given chance after chance and failed miserably except for a 3-month span in 2012. My worry is the guy has a decent camp and he ends up taking time from other players while he continues to stink in the majors. All that said, it's not the worst thing ever. It's not like I really have seen a ton of the guy - perhaps the club thinks there's something worth salvaging.

 

I'd say the Lind deal was the riskiest due to the players we acquired being so low level. I trust the team liked what they saw in the three guys we got, so I'm okay with it, and fine with it being a long term investment. But these kinds of things don't work out that well. It's sort of like venture investing - you sink money into 10 companies in the earliest stages in the hope that one hits it big down the road. Lots of failure - but if you hit, it can really pay off.

 

Best: Acquiring Cecchini. I've always liked Cecchini - again, I'm a sucker for on base skills. I'm willing to look past his awful 2015 and hope he can regain his earlier form - in which case we have a starter quality player.

 

I also really liked the Segura trade and the Liriano pick up - both very different, but nicely done.

 

The best thing to me is that we are making these moves. It's a combination of getting upside guys at lower levels to getting guys who could help us now or in the near future. I like the philosophy of the deals. I am okay with being patient - and I realize many of these moves won't pan out. But again, I realize that's part of the new organizational philosophy.

[1992casey]

Is it confirmed the DH is coming to the NL?

 

No. It was a rumor that was downplayed by the commissioner.

[Boomer5]

Is it confirmed the DH is coming to the NL?

 

No. It was a rumor that was downplayed by the commissioner.

 

Thanks!