Offseason Review: Brewers Best and Worst moves

[patrickgpe]

Bleacher report predicted the best and worst moves of each team's offseason and I thought it would be fun for brewer fans to make their predictions as well with pitchers and catchers reporting this weekend.

 

Bleacher report reported the Segura trade as the best and not trading Lucroy the worst.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2616776-predicting-every-mlb-teams-best-and-worst-2015-16-offseason-move/page/17

 

My prediction:

 

best: Segura trade: paved the way for Arcia, acquired a young back of the rotation starter, a top prospect and a stop gap at 3rd, great move.

 

worst: Trading Sardinas for Flores. I say this because I am a fan of almost everything Sterns did. Sardinas would have been an OK fill in until Arcia comes up. The crowded outfield combined with Flores' injury could mean him being put on waivers, since he is out of options.

 

on a side note, not trading Lucroy until you get the right move, cannot be considered a failure, especially since he is under contract for 2 more seasons, so the brewers should be in no rush to move him.

[bork]

I don't have the article now, but it graded all teams offseasons. In the central, the Cubs got an A, Brewers a C+ and the others C- or D. So only the Cubs had a better offseason.

[MVP2110]

Best: the Segura trade, which is yet to be completed, have to assume hill will be flipped at the deadline and possibly anderson as well.

 

Worst: Lind trade, while I dont think it was a terrible deal, is one of the few major feels that doesnt seem to get universal praise

[Outlander]

Best: Probably the Davis trade because I really like Nottingham and I think at the very least Derby will be a solid reliever.

 

Worst: The Sardinas trade. I actually kind of like Flores and that he is left handed but it would be nice to have Villar at third and Sardinas at short right now just as a fan going to the games. Not looking forward to Villar at short and seeing Hill on a regular basis. Big fan of Reed as well and wouldn't mind him getting a shot but not likely with the crowded outfield.

[kalle8]

Worst move: crowding too much the OF (trades, minor league signing, rule 5, waivers it will be tough to play all of them even with a whole split squads spring training)

Best move: adding a C prospect while trying to solve the OF logjam

[bill hAll Star]

The OF doesn't bother me right now. I get the "fan going to the game" argument, but in terms of other logjam issues, I don't think it'll be a problem.

 

How long is Flores expected to be out? By the time he returns we may either have decided that Nieuwenhuis is not worth keeping around or any of the other guys (I'm looking at Braun) might be on the DL. Reed can wait a little bit longer, but he'll get his shot if we sour on Nieuwenhuis, maybe Liriano, or we have excess DL situations.

[FVBrewerFan]

Easy way out is to say "too early to tell." But I'll agree Segura trade is the best. Put me down for Rogers trade being the "worst."

 

Every single one of these deals could best be described as "fine." I'm not overly excited about any of them either way.

 

I don't like giving up Rogers, Sneed, and Wagner. That's biggest issue I have with the trades as a whole. It's been said Wagner and Sneed both have ceilings as a #5 SP, as though that's a bad thing. When they're trying to compete again for the playoffs, it sure helps to have several guys capable of being the #5 guy, unless you believe they'll only use 5 SP in a 162 game+ season.

 

As for Rogers, probably more personal than anything. I like to see guys that come up through our system get a shot. I think the guy can and will hit, and could have received a better return at the deadline.

[Ennder]

Best - Segura trade. Diaz is going to be a major league player and I believe Chase Anderson will be the Brewers best pitcher over the next 2 seasons and will be flipped for something better than Segura at that point.

 

Worst - Kris Davis trade. I think by the all star break he would have had more value than he has now.

[Boomer5]

Best trade: Segura trade for Diaz and what I assume will be a flip of Anderson. Thats a lot of value for a lower level starting SS and a young pitcher the Brewers obviously didnt like very much.

 

Worst trade: Lind. Very little to likely no value for a quality player at a position of need who wasnt making very much.

[Boomer5]

Best - Segura trade. Diaz is going to be a major league player and I believe Chase Anderson will be the Brewers best pitcher over the next 2 seasons and will be flipped for something better than Segura at that point.

 

Worst - Kris Davis trade. I think by the all star break he would have had more value than he has now.

 

I agree the Davis trade was pretty bad, but Lind was worse. Nottingham may not stay at catcher but at least he has a tool that projects to the major league level and is a legitimate prospect. The guys in the Lind trade are just guys you'd have to round out a minor league pitching staff.

[Boomer5]

The season hasnt started yet. What an odd thought to list as our worst move? He will be traded and likely very soon since catchers typically have more value working with a pitching staff in the spring.

 

Sardinas was just a place holder for Arcia so he didnt have much value here. Flores, well i have zero idea why the Brewers wanted him as they have better OF prospects.

 

I do think the OF logjam was created because Davis was going to be traded and Braun will be too once the injury and package can be put together.

[Crash2303]

Best- every trade Stearns made, I think we came out net plus.

 

Worst- not giving Rogers and Sardinas a chance to prove what they can do as full time starters and possibly boost their value.

 

Fear- Davis & Segura are going to have great years

 

Surprise- thought we'd get more consensus top 100 prospects. I love our cumulative returns, a lot of value there with upside. but, surprised that in a total compilation of Rogers, Lind, Sardinas, K-Rod, Khrush, Segura and Sneed, Wagner & Seidenberger we didn't target/receive really any "top tier" talent. Nottingham and Diaz are probably the highest rated, but are on few top 100 lists.

 

Love- acquiring "flip" candidates: Carter, Anderson, Hill, keeping Garza

 

Underappreciated- 40 man/DFA/waiver juggling

[MKE81]

Best Move - Hiring Stearns to transform this organization's strategy and culture.

 

Next Best Move - Jean Segura/Tyler Wagner and Khris Davis trades. Segura gone paves the way for Arcia (Top 10) moving forward while also giving Villar a chance to prove himself as a contributor (ie potentially 2b, 3b or utility). Chase Anderson is a proven, more polished Wagner with a slightly higher ceiling. Hill plugs an immediate need (3b and platoon with Scooter) and can be flipped for low level prospects at break if performs well. Diaz has potential to be a Top 100 (some say Top 50) heading into 2017 if he repeats last year's success. Davis gone paves the way for Santana (Top 80) in RF, which will move Braun back to LF improving the corner defense significantly. Also bolstered the organizational pipeline with a top-tier catching prospect (huge need) and talented young pitcher who might grow into something meaningful. Both moves positively affected the MLB team and minor leagues.

 

Worst Move - There hasn't been one. Some have been sexier than others but they've all made sense and have put this organization on the right track to have consistent success at every level moving forward creating a pipeline that will feed the MLB team when a small/mid market team won't be able to afford large long-term contracts to high performing players (who will then be traded restocking the pipeline).

 

*Sardinas is average at best. He won't hit for avg nor get on base, lacks any sort of pop in bat but would be solid defensively. He's a dime a dozen. Villar has more, and better, tools. Flores should turn into a solid backup OF or traded for prospects. Rogers is solid but when you can cheaply sign a 35HR guy at 1b while finding a potential versatile 4th OF (Broxton) with several tools it makes the team/organization better overall. Rogers wasn't the long-term solution at 1b anyway and Carter won't be either. Sneed was a solid prospect but Villar can bolster this team's bench production (I think he'll end up as a utility guy in future and he's already better than anything we had last year off the bench between 2b/3b/ss). Lind trade can't even be discussed for at least 2yrs until you get a feel for the pitchers we received and see how they perform at lower levels. Rymer Liriano was a great get and should be starting in CF with his tool set. Really like the Cecchini cash trade and Rule 5 Walsh selection as well. OF log jam of Phillips, Santana, Rymer, Reed, Broxton, Flores (Kirk, EY, Presley will be gone) is great because the cream always rises and the rest are traded to bolster the organizational talent - having options is the best thing you can have going for you....and it's crazy that I didn't even include Coulter, Taylor, Clark, Harrison, Demi either. Insane OF depth in this organization.*

[Roderick]

Best trade: .... Thats a lot of value for a lower level starting SS and a young pitcher the Brewers obviously didnt like very much.

 

value for SS, pitcher and $5.5M.

 

The Diamondbacks obviously put a lot of value on their cost containment. So you can't forget the salary the Brewers are eating as part of the deal. Maybe the DBacks have someone else overpaid we can take plus prospect back for....

[patrickgpe]

The season hasnt started yet. What an odd thought to list as our worst move? He will be traded and likely very soon since catchers typically have more value working with a pitching staff in the spring.

 

I like bleacher report because its a place where you can see thoughts of many bloggers / beat writers in one place for my teams, but they are very quick to respond. Everything is graded the second it happens and the site is set up to get as many hits as possible.. The brewers made 9 trades and signed 1 major league free agent, pick your favorite and least favorite. The lucroy trade can be judged when it goes down.

[splitterpfj]

The best move .... leaving David Sterns alone to do what he thinks is best. Whether it ultimately works or not, he was hired to do what he is doing, after an extensive search to fill the job. All we can do is watch and learn, he's either right, or he's not.

 

Worst move - none of them have disappointed me so far.

 

Best move/worst move, the answer is essentially the same - all we're doing is guessing right now, with far too little information. The Brewers aren't dealing for known quantities, they're dealing for potential, so the correct answer on any of the returns is, "Incomplete."

 

The guys who have been traded away - no problem at all. Milwaukee hasn't given up anyone worth getting worked up over, they've traded a couple of prospects out, but added a lot more of them, and they've traded some MLB talent that will not help by the time they reach a competitive level.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Best: The Segura trade

 

Worst. The Lind trade. I'm not sad to see Lind go. I just thought, like many, we'd get more than young fringe guys. That trade didn't excite me at all. I know Lind has warts, but if you're getting a-ball and younger guys........blah. We got a better package for J-Rog (IMO)

[CheezWizHed]

Best: I agree with the consensus for the Segura trade. I am a Wagner fan, but I think you have to give up middling MLB talent in the pursuit of high end MLB talent (Diaz hopefully). Plus Anderson coming back is a very similar pitcher by results.

 

Worst: None. Stearns has basically given up very little (Davis being the biggest piece leaving). The Lind trade intrigues me. Yes, it was unexpected and the players farther away from MLB than desired, but I think Carlos Herrera has Jorge Lopez type potential. A big risk, but the trade will exemplify Stearns' ability to find gems.

 

Its been an arm-chair GM's dream of an offseason at the MiLB level.

[Ennder]

Best - Segura trade. Diaz is going to be a major league player and I believe Chase Anderson will be the Brewers best pitcher over the next 2 seasons and will be flipped for something better than Segura at that point.

 

Worst - Kris Davis trade. I think by the all star break he would have had more value than he has now.

 

I agree the Davis trade was pretty bad, but Lind was worse. Nottingham may not stay at catcher but at least he has a tool that projects to the major league level and is a legitimate prospect. The guys in the Lind trade are just guys you'd have to round out a minor league pitching staff.

 

All 3 of those pitchers project as plausible major league arms and all are really young so hard to project. If even one of them makes it that trade is just fine.

 

I don't really have a knock on Nottingham as much as I just think Davis will keep showing his power and by the all star break he would have brought back more. None of the trades were actually bad imo.

[danzig6767]

Best: The Segura trade

 

Worst. The Lind trade. I'm not sad to see Lind go. I just thought, like many, we'd get more than young fringe guys. That trade didn't excite me at all. I know Lind has warts, but if you're getting a-ball and younger guys........blah. We got a better package for J-Rog (IMO)

To be fair, Lind only has one year left on his deal while if Rogers becomes a solid player for the Pirates, they control him for another five years and multiple of those years will be at pocket change money.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Best: The Segura trade

 

Worst. The Lind trade. I'm not sad to see Lind go. I just thought, like many, we'd get more than young fringe guys. That trade didn't excite me at all. I know Lind has warts, but if you're getting a-ball and younger guys........blah. We got a better package for J-Rog (IMO)

To be fair, Lind only has one year left on his deal while if Rogers becomes a solid player for the Pirates, they control him for another five years and multiple of those years will be at pocket change money.

 

 

Oh, I totally get that. It's just that J-Rog was a fringe prospect himself, and not exactly a young guy, with less than 200 mlb at bats to his credit.

 

I guess a better way to look at it is that the return for what they got for J-Rog was much better than expected. I was ecstatic to see the package they got for him, even though I was hoping to see Jason get 400 - 500 PA's this year as a Brewer.

[gregmag]

I'm with the starry-eyed camp; I don't think Stearns has set a foot wrong. I understand why people like Rogers, and I could see him hanging on as a starter for a year or two in the best of all possible worlds. But he's too old to improve his skills much, not really a power bat, and effectively limited to 1b. The only guys I regret losing even a little are Wagner and Sneed, but I like what they got us better.

 

I'm going with the Lind trade as the best move, because of the strategy it represents: Make trades to get talent at all levels. As part of that, get young guys with upside. When thinking about upside, have your own informed idea of what it is. Stearns is buying a lot of OBP with hitters and command with pitchers. Lind wasn't good enough to get us an advanced prospect worth caring about, so instead Stearns brought back three baby prospects worth betting on.

[umphrey]

Best: Davis trade

 

Worst: Sardinas I guess?

 

I liked the Davis trade because Nottingham is such a good fit for us. Sardinas for Flores was the most meh move for me because I don't like either player much. Flores is fine, but we just traded a util guy for a 4th OF. I wanted to defend the Lind trade a bit because we got 3 live armed teenagers which could potentially fill out a weakness in our farm system of high upside pitching.

 

Didn't Stearns make the Flores trade before he got most of Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Rymer Liriano, Keon Broxton and Eric Young Jr? I don't think he makes that trade if he knows he has all those guys available.

[endaround]

Well if you treat the Mariner trades as two separate events:

 

Best: Flores for Sardinas. Trading a 23 year old who still looks to be years from being even valuable utility infielder for a 23 year old OFer who is looks to be a solid 4 OFer right now if not better is a steal.

 

Worst: Lind for three short soft tossing right handed pitcher in rookie ball, one of which is injured. Lind had around $6 million in excess value. At best the three arms coming back are worth $3 million. You can get much better prospects for $6 million in the international market.

 

This is why I believe these two trades are basically two halves of the same trade. Now if you combine those, then:

 

Best: Segura/Wagner for Anderson/Hill/Diaz. This is not a lopsided trade but it was moving the risk of Segura who may have been non-tendere at the end of next season if he repeats his 2015 and using the huge amount of salary room to add talent to the system. Anderson is the type of pticher conending teams will love to have come July to coer for back end rotation injuries, so (assuming Anderson is healthy) he could add soem decent pieces.

 

Worst: The trades that haven't happened. Braun is not worth his contract and the further into teh contract the less value he has making it more of a millstone. Smith is a pitcher and so injury concerns are always at the forefront. Lucroy needs to be moved and hopefully some catching in spring training will show he's healthy enough to be traded.

[brewcrewdue80]

Best to me has to be signing Carter at 2.5mil. Just have a feeling he'll hit 25+HRs before deadline and get traded netting something popular.

 

Really all the moves I'm happy with. Getting rid of Davis to me Opening playing time for Santana(now that CF has bodies to have reduced it) and likely move Braun back to LF. Going to be a big net positive defensively.

 

Worst move? Man, I'm pleased with it all. I think the worst move will be to come and that's who they keep out of all these extras and who they let go. Walsh? Cecchini? Middlebrooks? Hill? Not gonna lie but if Walsh is succeeding in ST and Hill is not? I'd rather have Walsh than the maybe trade value gain Hill "could make"