Khris Davis to the A's for C Jacob Nottingham and RHP Bubba Derby; Latest: Sean Nolin claimed from A's, too

[MrTPlush]

Maybe the guy just didn't care but fulfilled being there.

 

I don't think that is a good example. If he doesn't care I guess he will never be any good with that attitude.

 

Also why are we freaking out over Josh Hader's huge fall league performance, but if Santana does poorly it is nothing? Seems like it should go both ways.

[MrTPlush]

Perrotto’s piece also contains comments from a scout who feels the Athletics made a “great pickup” in obtaining Khris Davis from the Brewers. “Power has become so much more scarce in recent years that I’m surprised that Oakland could get a guy like Davis so cheaply,” the scout said. (mlbtraderumors.com)

 

This is exactly what I think.

 

I feel this trade was largely focused on opening up a OF spot vs. focusing on getting the best value for Khris Davis. I think the risk of Khris Davis getting worse is way lower than some make it out to be. Of course as long as Nottingham stays at catcher and his bat ends up a force at the MLB level it won't really matter. I do believe he would have been a lot more valuable next off season though. In the end sometimes you take some risks and sometimes you don't...I guess this wasn't one of those times.

[SRB]

Maybe the guy just didn't care but fulfilled being there.

Also why are we freaking out over Josh Hader's huge fall league performance, but if Santana does poorly it is nothing? Seems like it should go both ways.

 

Not everyone is freaking out over Hader's fall league performance, but anyways: a) fall league is a different level of competition than winter ball, b) it's more significant when a player dominates than when he does poorly because it suggests he is figuring things out, whereas it is highly unlikely that Santana is suddenly terrible (and more likely that he was in a bad mindset, working on mechanics, etc.)

 

For me winter ball stats are about the same as spring training stats.

[FVBrewerFan]

Perrotto’s piece also contains comments from a scout who feels the Athletics made a “great pickup” in obtaining Khris Davis from the Brewers. “Power has become so much more scarce in recent years that I’m surprised that Oakland could get a guy like Davis so cheaply,” the scout said. (mlbtraderumors.com)

 

This is exactly what I think.

 

I feel this trade was largely focused on opening up a OF spot vs. focusing on getting the best value for Khris Davis. I think the risk of Khris Davis getting worse is way lower than some make it out to be. Of course as long as Nottingham stays at catcher and his bat ends up a force at the MLB level it won't really matter. I do believe he would have been a lot more valuable next off season though. In the end sometimes you take some risks and sometimes you don't...I guess this wasn't one of those times.

 

Agreed, except a trade at the deadline instead of next off-season. Look at Melvin's trades at the deadline last year. Bigger return on every one of them than I would have hoped for. Stearns trades, I can't say that.

 

I'm not saying they were bad trades, it just seems like better deals can be had at the deadline, when emotions get involved. Davis trade is a good example. Return is fine, but I would bet anything they could get more in 6 months. Barring injury, there is that to be fair.

[brewerfan82]

The hitting hasn't take nearly the hit? They've lost 2 of the 3 most productive hitters from 2015, 3 of 4 if you count Parra and 4 of 6 if you count Gomez. At least Gomez and Parra brought back players that can help some in 2016. None of the guys Davis and Lind brought back figure to start the year above high A ball. They've gone from a lineup that had some length to it, to one of the "shortest" in baseball. Their number 5 hitter figures to be a guy who was non-tendered is his prime for goodness sakes. The lineup has no lefty bat capable of more than a dozen HR, has 2 guys capable of 200 strikeouts, and no CF with any record of accomplishment in the major leagues. They'd need Hill to return to the player he's been on occasion in the past, Gennett go a full season without a horrendous 6 week slump, Villar or Perez to provide some offense at SS until Arcia arrives, Braun to stay healthy, and Santana to shrug off a horrendous stint in winter ball and somehow show he can make contact, something he's struggled with even as he put up healthy numbers in the minors. And he must do all that with a much weaker lineup around him. Flores is the one OF acquired this offseason that may help offensively when he's healthy but he may be needed to be alternative if Santana struggles. If all that happens, they might win 68 games again.

 

Yes, Lohse is gone, but Garza's still here and other than hope, we have no idea if he'll be any better than he was in 2015.

 

Forget 100 losses, this team could surpass the futility of the 2002 team. I have them pegged at 98 losses with 88 best case and 108 worst case.

 

Perhaps my wording didn't come across as intended, but I didn't mean to say the hitting hasn't taken a hit, but rather it didn't take as much of a hit as some may be assuming. I'm just throwing out some actual research/stats/projections that may help inform anyone that may be basing their opinions on uneducated assumptions/wild guesses. While I personally don't care much what the team's record is next year, it seems premature to guarantee they'll be 100-loss bad.

 

To add to my point on the offense, here's some comparisons of last year's players who are now gone and the one's replacing them:

 

[pre]2015 ('15 OPS+/'16 proj.) 2016 ('16 proj.)

C Lucroy (95/106) Maldonado/Pinto (71/101)

1B Lind (122/110) Carter (126)

3B Ramirez (95/na) Hill/Villar/Middlebrooks/Cecchini (95/85/84/84)

SS Segura (68/na) Villar/Arcia (85/86)

LF Davis (122/117) Santana (118)

CF Gomez (104/106) Flores/Phillips/Nieuwenhuis/Liriano/Broxton (103/94/94/85/79)

IF Herrera (85/na) Hill/Villar/Middlebrooks/Cecchini (95/85/84/84)

OF Parra (139/95) Flores/Phillips/Nieuwenhuis/Liriano/Broxton (103/94/94/85/79)

OF Schafer (68/67) Flores/Phillips/Nieuwenhuis/Liriano/Broxton (103/94/94/85/79)[/pre]

 

Catcher will surely be worse without Lucroy, and center/backup OF is a crapshoot with all the new guys but likely won't be as productive as Gomez/Parra. However, shortstop should be improved and everyone else is fairly equivalent. I know you can go through each player and find warts, but you pretty much have to assume worst case scenario at every position to predict a 100-loss year, especially when you take pitching into consideration.

[Jenkins5]

Brewers will not loss 100 games this season & they are not designed to really. For Brewers to lose 100, Every player on roster needs to play there worse season.

 

It's not tanking. They aren't losing to get draft picks & slot money. They are trading away guys for young prospects who by the end of this season could just explode up prospect lists. You don't get a Diaz once he is in AA or AAA when he is a possible elite prospect. You get him right before he soars. I think it's wrong to say that if Diaz was in AA or AAA the trade would be less like ranking. Regardless of age or level, the only goal is to bring in the best talent to our system. DS has done that. If we had to trade off most of our value at the MLB level to bring in possible future top notch players, I don't consider that tanking.

 

Tanking is when you intentionally construct a line up to lose for draft placement. I in no way see that as DS's plan. If he did, he doesn't bring in guys like Hill & Carter.

 

What DS is doing is sacrificing the now to aquire top notch talent for the future. That is his purpose, not to loss intentionally. Very limited ways to bring in high ceiling prospects.

[And That]

I honestly don't see why anyone cares whether we are a 62-win team or a 81-win team.

For one thing, the implications on the Brewers' draft pool in 2017 are gigantic.

[Austin Tatious]

The term tanking comes from large market teams who have big market media guys in their pockets with a vested interest in keeping the Brewers down. The Brewers are rebuilding. You know what, rebuilding works. What doesn't work is having a leaky roster that you play whack-mole with, which is what the Brewers did from 1994 through 2004 when they were the worst organization in the sport. No one wants to repeat those days.

 

Everyone thought it was genius when the Cubs sold off assets like Smardizja to get Addison Russell. They traded for Rizzo. They brought in Soler from Cuba with extra money. They had five straight top ten picks and some in the top 5 when you look at Baez, Almaro, Bryant, Schwarber, Happ. They lost for five years. Now they are a juggernaut for the foreseeable future.

 

With six years of club control, and with older players breaking down, building a good core of young players is a very viable strategy. You just need to execute.

 

The Brewers has 11,000 at the on deck event. The fans are on board.

[JohnBriggs12]

Perrotto’s piece also contains comments from a scout who feels the Athletics made a “great pickup” in obtaining Khris Davis from the Brewers. “Power has become so much more scarce in recent years that I’m surprised that Oakland could get a guy like Davis so cheaply,” the scout said. (mlbtraderumors.com)

 

This is exactly what I think.

 

I feel this trade was largely focused on opening up a OF spot vs. focusing on getting the best value for Khris Davis. I think the risk of Khris Davis getting worse is way lower than some make it out to be. Of course as long as Nottingham stays at catcher and his bat ends up a force at the MLB level it won't really matter. I do believe he would have been a lot more valuable next off season though. In the end sometimes you take some risks and sometimes you don't...I guess this wasn't one of those times.

 

Amen to all of that TPlush. Stearns undervaluing Davis doesn't bode well for a return should Lucroy get dealt. I've liked some of Stearns deals, but the 3 I didn't were Lind for 3 teenagers, Rogers for yet another contact challenged outfielder with no major league record, and this Davis deal. One would think you could get a lot than an A ball catcher and a mid level pitching prospect for a guy with a major league HR/AB rate better than Prince Fielder making major league minimum and controllable for 4 years.

 

It seems Stearns is valuing Brewers based on what their value was as prospects rather that what they've done in the big leagues. Davis and Rogers weren't highly touted so he's valuing them in deals that way. Rogers would have been a better option at 1B than Chris Carter, especially if you are set on having Santana in the lineup everyday.

[CheezWizHed]

Agreed, except a trade at the deadline instead of next off-season. Look at Melvin's trades at the deadline last year. Bigger return on every one of them than I would have hoped for. Stearns trades, I can't say that.

 

The Segura trade was a bigger return than most expected. Getting Diaz (though at A-ball this year) was a huge win IMO. Wagner/Anderson part of that was pretty much a wash. So Segura for Hill/Diaz is pretty big.

 

This trade will hinge on whether Nottingham stays at C or not. If yes, its a huge win for us. If he hits well at 1B, I think its still good for us.

 

I'm a big Khrush fan and have been since he opened our eyes at A-ball (my top-25s always had him higher than the overall group). But at 28, injury prone, and a bad throwing arm, he is much better at a place where he can DH. I think we got a good trade back for him.

[brewmann04]

Well Sometimes us Brewer fans overvalue our own prospects.

But Like getting a future catcher hopefully.

I like that the brewers also adding young Prospects and would like to see the them now go the International route adding more talent. I don't want to see this team if they are not going to make the Playoffs finish at 500 rather see them give us a top 5 draft pick to continue to build this team.

[pacopete4]

Khris Davis is a fine player to have if he is meant to be your 6-7 hitter and playing DH with spot starts in LF. There's not ill feelings towards him, he's just not a good fit for the new regime in Milwaukee. Hopefully Santana takes the next step and will be as good offensively or very close to it but providing above avg. defense in a corner OF spot.

[Boomer5]

I honestly don't see why anyone cares whether we are a 62-win team or a 81-win team. Nobody expects us to make the playoffs, and either way you're looking at a >50% chance we lose any given game. Who cares???

 

I care, greatly. I think many misunderstand my POV on the offseason, as opposed to July. This is the MLB board and I my "negativity" is only discussing the MLB roster. I AGREE with what Stearns is doing. I WANT the Brewers to develop not just a good, but the best farm system in the game filled with 8-10 top 100 players going forward. 81 wins would be a disaster, assuming the goal is to win a championship in the next 5-7 years.

 

The Brewers are playing Chess, not Checkers. Checkers is adding Cecchini types et al in 2016 and saying well he might be OK. Checkers is adding a Carter and saying well he could be better than Lind, etc etc etc. The reality is in this day of advanced metrics, teams dont give up cheap talented players to waivers and pennies on the dollar trades, so the likelyhood is all these fillers are more likely to perform at 2015 levels than former prospect levels.

 

Checkers is trading Davis a guy who has 4 years of control and carried the Brewers to their sub 500 but not horrible Aug/Sep with 20 HRs which I assume is a Brewers record and saying any corner OF we acquired will easily replace him. The guy has a top 5 exit velocity (read on Mlb traderumors, not sure of the metrics) so to say he isn't a talent and can easily be replaced isnt really being honest.

 

Chess is trading our #4, #5 hitters and closer for literally nothing of value to the MLB roster for 3 or 4 years when that is exactly when the real roster should be taking shape.

 

I just saw Harper wants $400M and Fernandez wants $30M per year. The Brewers cant play in that arena. All they can do is build a very deep farm system filled with guys of that caliber and expect to keep them for 5- 5.5 years and trade them in the Spring- July of their walk year. Thats the game as of today.

 

Theo figured it out in Chicago, and put together 3 miserable teams before the lineup we see today was produced. Ditto Houston who used the first pick to leverage pool money. Like most sports leagues, this is a copy cat league, and now the Brewers are doing exactly what they did. As is Atlanta, Cincy, and Philly.

[Boomer5]

We have now acquired 3 catchers, 2 of which could play in Milwaukee this year, albeit as back ups, this offseason, so do the math on the likelyhood of Luc being traded very soon.

[JohnBriggs12]

Well Sometimes us Brewer fans overvalue our own prospects.

But Like getting a future catcher hopefully.

I like that the brewers also adding young Prospects and would like to see the them now go the International route adding more talent. I don't want to see this team if they are not going to make the Playoffs finish at 500 rather see them give us a top 5 draft pick to continue to build this team.

 

"getting a future catcher hopefully". For one of the premier power hitters in baseball right now who's controllable for 4 more seasons, you better get a near future catcher definitely, not hopefully, and not one that's 3 years from his major league debut. There were going to be ample opportunities to pick up a catcher by other means over the next 3 years.

 

This deal is a deal that teams tanking it do. Stearns doesn't want to take any chances that this team would be respectable and thereby draft below top 10 in 2017, and he's doing everything he can to insure it won't be. He might have held on to Davis if he got what he wanted for Lucroy by now, but in his mind a lineup that has both might actually be okay so better be safe than sorry and insure a 90 loss season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Davis goes from playing half his games in a hr hitting haven to oakland. He won't hit 20 hr this season.

 

Premier power hitter he is not. He had a great half season last year once Parra was dealt and all the games were meaningless. The brewers traded him at peak value, which is exactly what you do for a guy his caliber of talent.

[Boomer5]

Well Sometimes us Brewer fans overvalue our own prospects.

But Like getting a future catcher hopefully.

I like that the brewers also adding young Prospects and would like to see the them now go the International route adding more talent. I don't want to see this team if they are not going to make the Playoffs finish at 500 rather see them give us a top 5 draft pick to continue to build this team.

 

"getting a future catcher hopefully". For one of the premier power hitters in baseball right now who's controllable for 4 more seasons, you better get a near future catcher definitely, not hopefully, and not one that's 3 years from his major league debut. There were going to be ample opportunities to pick up a catcher by other means over the next 3 years.

 

This deal is a deal that teams tanking it do. Stearns doesn't want to take any chances that this team would be respectable and thereby draft below top 10 in 2017, and he's doing everything he can to insure it won't be. He might have held on to Davis if he got what he wanted for Lucroy by now, but in his mind a lineup that has both might actually be okay so better be safe than sorry and insure a 90 loss season.

 

I doubt in his mind this team is going to be OK.

 

Maldy once the Luc trade happens

Carter

Scooter/Hill

Villars

Cecchini

Santana

Broxton

Braun

 

No way is that a MLB roster any GM would put together if the goal is to win games. With the exception of Braun who is difficult to trade or he would have already been moved even by Melvin, that is quite literally an expansion team.

 

He has more work to be do. I would not be surprised to see Wily and Smith go soon as well. If Smith makes it out of spring as the closer, that will be the sure sign of building his value for a trade, because Mil will not be paying closer money on his next contract.

 

The term tanking seems to be quite offensive on this board, but that is the reality of baseball today, and really has been for quite some time. Teams in the past like Florida and Minn built, tore down, and rebuilt leading to championships. Now its more mathematically acceptable thanks in part to Theo and Houston which is why so many teams are doing the same thing.

 

Oh and the guy had zero GM experience on his resume and was hired from Houston. Sheesh. This isn't rocket surgery. Of course they are tanking.

[brewmann04]

Davis is a power Hitter Premier is debatable when he hot he red hot but can be very cold also which some forget to notice. DS is not going to give away Lucroy so he going to get something back or hold onto him. The Brewers need to rebuild and getting a top 5 pick in this year draft as well as next year will go a long way to that.

[QuevedosTongue]

Davis goes from playing half his games in a hr hitting haven to oakland. He won't hit 20 hr this season.

 

Premier power hitter he is not. He had a great half season last year once Parra was dealt and all the games were meaningless. The brewers traded him at peak value, which is exactly what you do for a guy his caliber of talent.

 

This is exactly how I feel about the deal. Nothing against Davis, I just feel like last year was more like his peak, as opposed to a step on the path to superstardom. Or a step towards being a better player. He wasn't even worth 1 WAR last year. So, to me, this is dealing a slightly-better-than-replacement-level player at his peak, which is a good thing.

[Boomer5]

Davis goes from playing half his games in a hr hitting haven to oakland. He won't hit 20 hr this season.

 

Premier power hitter he is not. He had a great half season last year once Parra was dealt and all the games were meaningless. The brewers traded him at peak value, which is exactly what you do for a guy his caliber of talent.

 

This is exactly how I feel about the deal. Nothing against Davis, I just feel like last year was more like his peak, as opposed to a step on the path to superstardom. Or a step towards being a better player. He wasn't even worth 1 WAR last year. So, to me, this is dealing a slightly-better-than-replacement-level player at his peak, which is a good thing.

 

So...Davis is slightly better than replacement quality.......

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/68-win-as-get-khris-davis-from-68-win-brewers/

 

"There’s something else about him that’s kind of neat. I took the last three years, again, and I narrowed all the hitters down to guys with at least 100 batted balls to the pull side, up the middle, and the other way. Davis is one of just three players with a hard-hit rate north of 35% to all three fields. The others are Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera. The contact quality is fantastic, and Oakland has been somewhat starved for this sort of strength.

 

In terms of approach and strength, you can fairly compare Davis to Nelson Cruz. He looks like Nelson Cruz-lite — Cruz has achieved a certain level of consistency, but this is Davis’ ceiling. Players tend to fall short of their ceilings, but Cruz has been a four-win player two years in a row. It’s something to hope for."

[superfly]

Lots of armchair GM's out there about Davis. If he injured himself on the third day of the season these same people who are whining and moaning about trading him would be right back in this thread complaining that Stearns had no foresight to sell high on a 28 year old OF with a limited track record of consistent hitting. It's a no win situation.

 

It's easy to sit behind a keyboard and call for more value, when in all reality not a single one here knows what the exact value of Khris Davis was or is, or any other Brewer. His numbers WILL drop out in Oakland, why do you think Yoenis Cespedes stats ballooned once he got out of there?

 

I'll trust the guy with computer models who are qualified enough at 30 years old to be a MLB GM over the guys sitting on a couch with beer in hand, computer in lap anytime until proven otherwise.

[yoshii8]

Lots of armchair GM's out there about Davis. If he injured himself on the third day of the season these same people who are whining and moaning about trading him would be right back in this thread complaining that Stearns had no foresight to sell high on a 28 year old OF with a limited track record of consistent hitting. It's a no win situation.

 

It's easy to sit behind a keyboard and call for more value, when in all reality not a single one here knows what the exact value of Khris Davis was or is, or any other Brewer. His numbers WILL drop out in Oakland, why do you think Yoenis Cespedes stats ballooned once he got out of there?

 

I'll trust the guy with computer models who are qualified enough at 30 years old to be a MLB GM over the guys sitting on a couch with beer in hand, computer in lap anytime until proven otherwise.

 

 

Not sure if you're new to the interweb, but this is a fan site, so typically fans give opinions on their teams.

[MrTPlush]

Then maybe this site isn't for you superfly. This whole site is really based on being arm chair GMs if you didn't know.

[Boomer5]

Lots of armchair GM's out there about Davis. If he injured himself on the third day of the season these same people who are whining and moaning about trading him would be right back in this thread complaining that Stearns had no foresight to sell high on a 28 year old OF with a limited track record of consistent hitting. It's a no win situation.

 

It's easy to sit behind a keyboard and call for more value, when in all reality not a single one here knows what the exact value of Khris Davis was or is, or any other Brewer. His numbers WILL drop out in Oakland, why do you think Yoenis Cespedes stats ballooned once he got out of there?

 

I'll trust the guy with computer models who are qualified enough at 30 years old to be a MLB GM over the guys sitting on a couch with beer in hand, computer in lap anytime until proven otherwise.

 

i think the value received can be debated. After all, these are both A ball players. One is a 5'10" pitcher, the other a catcher, which is a position that is notoriously difficult to project.

 

The issue here in reality is that both - regardless of skill set - are in fact A ball players. By definition that means they are several years from Milwaukee. That, in my mind, is the issue behind these trades. Improve the MLB roster.....in 3 years.

 

As for Davis, I do find it interesting that a guy who hit 20 HRs in the last two months, has 4 years of control and advanced metrics loves his power tool, is meh, but the guys we picked up from others teams 40 man roster cuts are exciting and going to improve the team. Ummmm. Ok. Who is the beer holding couch GM there?

[Bnowell4evr]

I honestly don't see why anyone cares whether we are a 62-win team or a 81-win team. Nobody expects us to make the playoffs, and either way you're looking at a >50% chance we lose any given game. Who cares???

 

I care, greatly. I think many misunderstand my POV on the offseason, as opposed to July. This is the MLB board and I my "negativity" is only discussing the MLB roster. I AGREE with what Stearns is doing. I WANT the Brewers to develop not just a good, but the best farm system in the game filled with 8-10 top 100 players going forward. 81 wins would be a disaster, assuming the goal is to win a championship in the next 5-7 years.

 

The Brewers are playing Chess, not Checkers. Checkers is adding Cecchini types et al in 2016 and saying well he might be OK. Checkers is adding a Carter and saying well he could be better than Lind, etc etc etc. The reality is in this day of advanced metrics, teams dont give up cheap talented players to waivers and pennies on the dollar trades, so the likelyhood is all these fillers are more likely to perform at 2015 levels than former prospect levels.

 

Ever heard of Colin McHugh from Houston? He's doing pretty well for a waiver wire claim.