Khris Davis to the A's for C Jacob Nottingham and RHP Bubba Derby; Latest: Sean Nolin claimed from A's, too

[Outlander]

People penciling us in for 100 losses, you do realize that has only happened 1 time before in our not so illustrious history?

Yes, and there were some pretty good players on that team. Lucroy will be a huge factor in if they lose 100, pretty much every position is average or below average offensively and defensively. I have watched a lot of Brewers baseball and looking at this team it is right up there with the worst Brewers teams no doubt. The future is much brighter but it doesn't change the current major league team and how horrible they will be.

[adambr2]

People penciling us in for 100 losses, you do realize that has only happened 1 time before in our not so illustrious history?

Yes, and there were some pretty good players on that team. Lucroy will be a huge factor in if they lose 100, pretty much every position is average or below average offensively and defensively. I have watched a lot of Brewers baseball and looking at this team it is right up there with the worst Brewers teams no doubt. The future is much brighter but it doesn't change the current major league team and how horrible they will be.

 

There is no way the 2016 team is worse than this team.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIL/2002.shtml

 

The lineup might be similar but the pitching staff should be far better.

[Thurston Fluff]

People penciling us in for 100 losses, you do realize that has only happened 1 time before in our not so illustrious history?

Yes, and there were some pretty good players on that team. Lucroy will be a huge factor in if they lose 100, pretty much every position is average or below average offensively and defensively. I have watched a lot of Brewers baseball and looking at this team it is right up there with the worst Brewers teams no doubt. The future is much brighter but it doesn't change the current major league team and how horrible they will be.

 

In 1994 Rickie Bones was our lone all star. Though it was a strike shortened year they would have had to go 9-35 the rest of the way to be a 100 loss team. In 1995 Kevin Seitzer was our lone allstar yet that team scraped together 65 wins in only 144 games. It is very hard to be a 100 loss team.

[brewerfan82]

People penciling us in for 100 losses, you do realize that has only happened 1 time before in our not so illustrious history?

Yes, and there were some pretty good players on that team. Lucroy will be a huge factor in if they lose 100, pretty much every position is average or below average offensively and defensively. I have watched a lot of Brewers baseball and looking at this team it is right up there with the worst Brewers teams no doubt. The future is much brighter but it doesn't change the current major league team and how horrible they will be.

 

Here's a VERY simplified comparison using ZiPS projections for this year (and already without Lucroy and Smith):

 

[pre]2002 2016

C Bako (66 OPS+) Maldonado (71 OPS+)

1B Sexson (128 OPS+) Carter (126 OPS+)

2B Young (88 OPS+) Gennett/Hill (95/95 OPS+)

SS Hernandez (120 OPS+) Villar/Arcia (85/86 OPS+)

3B Houston (112 OPS+) Cecchini/Middlebrooks (84/84 OPS+)

LF Jenkins (101 OPS+) Braun (124 OPS+)

CF Sanchez (87 OPS+) Broxton/Liriano/Nieuwenhuis/Phillips (79/85/94/94 OPS+)

RF Hammonds (93 OPS+) Santana (118 OPS+)

~99.375 OPS+ ~98.625 OPS+

 

 

SP Sheets (3.76 FIP) Nelson (3.93 FIP)

SP Rusch (4.64 FIP) Anderson (4.14 FIP)

SP Quevedo (5.80 FIP) Peralta (4.46 FIP)

SP Wright (5.40 FIP) Garza (4.22 FIP)

SP Neugebauer (6.00 FIP) Davies (3.94 FIP)

~5.12 FIP ~4.14 FIP

 

CL DeJean (4.08 FIP) Jeffress (3.13 FIP)

RP Cabrera (5.98 FIP) Blazek (3.63 FIP)

RP Vizcaino (3.20 FIP) Knebel (3.29 FIP)

RP King (3.67 FIP) Thornburg (4.04 FIP)

RP De Los Santos (4.00 FIP) Goforth (4.28 FIP)

~4.19 FIP ~3.67 FIP[/pre]

 

So as mentioned before, the hitting is very similar, however the pitching was horrendous in 2002. The 2016 starters are projected be a full run better and the relievers are about half a run better. If you weight that out to 2/3 IP for the starters and 1/3 for the relievers, you end up with a 0.83 run improvement per game over 162 games. Which comes to 135 fewer runs in the season and if you use the 10 runs per win rule of thumb, you get a 13.5 win improvement from the pitching staff alone. Which puts the 2016 Brewers right around 69/70 wins (and 92/93 losses). Not a season to be proud of, but still, 100 losses is REALLY BAD. It *could* happen, but it's not likely and for people to keep maintaining it's a forgone conclusion is borderline silly/trolling.

[Boomer5]

This team will absolutely no doubt about it be a 100 loss team in 2016. The only issue in question is has he made the MLB roster bad enough to catch the Phillies, Reds, and Braves who are following the exact same blue print.

 

So you're saying there will be four 100 loss teams in 2016?

 

Last I looked, Vegas odds had the Brewers at around 71 wins. Not sure if I'd take the over on that, but I absolutely would on 62.

 

Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster.

 

IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM.

 

I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design. Luc will be gone soon and likely Braun once they figure out the math on moving his contract. You'd have to about as hard core a fan as there is to not look at that remaining lineup as the worst in the game.

 

If the Brewers were even thinking of competing in the next 2 plus years there is no way they trade away Davis who cost very little vs his production. Throw in the possibility of the DH and you have no reason to move him at all unless you want to tank.

 

Had the Brewers trades been similar to July I'd disagree with the tanking model, but since they are going for guys like Diaz, the sherif, and the 3 rookie league lottery tickets from Seattle, it's quite clear the team has no interest it trying to build the MLB roster the next few years in what would be a futile effort vs the Cubs, Pirates, and Cards.

[Thurston Fluff]

It is an extreme oversimplification to say since Stearns came from the Astros he will do exactly what the Astros did. It completely ignores these franchises are in totally different conditions. We have a top ten farm system. The Astros at the same point in their rebuild had one of the worst. The Astros had almost no major league or upper minor league talent at the same point in the rebuild. The Brewers have both. The Astros were more like the Brewers when Dean Taylor took over than they are the Brewers of today. If Stearns cannot see there are differences between the two team' situations and act accordingly we hired the wrong man. Personally I think we hired the right guy.

[brewerfan82]

IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM.

 

And if Stearns' goal is to go from 68 wins to 100 losses, as you suggest, he's also not doing a very good job. He's got a ways to go for that to go from a 'possibility' to a 'probability'. He picked up Carter, who's projected to have the highest OPS+ on the team (126 vs. Lind's projected 110 btw). He made room for Santana in place of Davis (a marginal 118 to 117 OPS+ improvement). He traded for Villar (85 OPS+) and Cacchini (84 OPS+) instead of just giving a SS/3B spot to Rivera (60 OPS+). There's been given no indication that Jeffress, Knebel, or Blazek are on the market (3.13, 3.34 and 3.57 FIPs). Or Jungmann, Nelson or Davies (3.90, 3.93 and 3.94 FIPs). All moves/non-moves that improve the team this year.

 

Again. Not a "good" team and the focus is more on talent rather than winning this year. But this looks far from a "tank" job.

[And That]

I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design.

You keep stating this as fact. It's not.

 

As for the Las Vegas line, as of 3 days ago the Brewers were at 71.5 wins. I'm assuming it hasn't changed much, even with the Davis trade.

[pacopete4]

The Brewers will win 74 games. Book it.

[KCBrewerfan34]

The Brewers will win 74 games. Book it.

 

If Lucroy and Braun are traded I would call 74 ambitious.

[brewerfan82]

Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster.

 

Don't forget the biggest reason last year was worse than expected:

 

Kyle Lohse - 5.85 ERA (152.1 IP)

Matt Garza - 5.63 ERA (148.2 IP)

 

That's over 300 innings of awful pitching from our two highest paid pitchers. If those guys had just bad years instead of awful years, we would have won 5 more games. If they would have had normal-to-good years, we probably would have been around .500. One of them is gone and the other is bound to bounce back somewhat to his career norms or take a reduced role on the team this year.

 

The hitting hasn't taken nearly the "hit" (sorry) that you would assume with all the trades and the pitching is likely to be better. If you're really interested in seeing how it breaks down, there was a nice read on FanGraphs a few weeks ago breaking down the team: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/being-sunny-about-the-brewers/

[pacopete4]

The Brewers will win 74 games. Book it.

 

If Lucroy and Braun are traded I would call 74 ambitious.

 

 

I'm basing it on the pitching staff. Won't be great but it'll be good enough to be competitive.

 

Oh and Braun is going no where. He, unlike that chump Lucroy, will be here to lead the next wave of great Brewers towards a World Series.

[logan82]

Just because a team only won 68 games does not in any way mean they had 68 win talent.

[Thurston Fluff]

Just because a team only won 68 games does not in any way mean they had 68 win talent.

 

Actually I think that is exactly what it means.

[JohnBriggs12]

Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster.

 

Don't forget the biggest reason last year was worse than expected:

 

Kyle Lohse - 5.85 ERA (152.1 IP)

Matt Garza - 5.63 ERA (148.2 IP)

 

That's over 300 innings of awful pitching from our two highest paid pitchers. If those guys had just bad years instead of awful years, we would have won 5 more games. If they would have had normal-to-good years, we probably would have been around .500. One of them is gone and the other is bound to bounce back somewhat to his career norms or take a reduced role on the team this year.

 

The hitting hasn't taken nearly the "hit" (sorry) that you would assume with all the trades and the pitching is likely to be better. If you're really interested in seeing how it breaks down, there was a nice read on FanGraphs a few weeks ago breaking down the team: http://www.fangraphs.com/community/being-sunny-about-the-brewers/

 

The hitting hasn't take nearly the hit? They've lost 2 of the 3 most productive hitters from 2015, 3 of 4 if you count Parra and 4 of 6 if you count Gomez. At least Gomez and Parra brought back players that can help some in 2016. None of the guys Davis and Lind brought back figure to start the year above high A ball. They've gone from a lineup that had some length to it, to one of the "shortest" in baseball. Their number 5 hitter figures to be a guy who was non-tendered is his prime for goodness sakes. The lineup has no lefty bat capable of more than a dozen HR, has 2 guys capable of 200 strikeouts, and no CF with any record of accomplishment in the major leagues. They'd need Hill to return to the player he's been on occasion in the past, Gennett go a full season without a horrendous 6 week slump, Villar or Perez to provide some offense at SS until Arcia arrives, Braun to stay healthy, and Santana to shrug off a horrendous stint in winter ball and somehow show he can make contact, something he's struggled with even as he put up healthy numbers in the minors. And he must do all that with a much weaker lineup around him. Flores is the one OF acquired this offseason that may help offensively when he's healthy but he may be needed to be alternative if Santana struggles. If all that happens, they might win 68 games again.

 

Yes, Lohse is gone, but Garza's still here and other than hope, we have no idea if he'll be any better than he was in 2015.

 

Forget 100 losses, this team could surpass the futility of the 2002 team. I have them pegged at 98 losses with 88 best case and 108 worst case.

[logan82]

Just because a team only won 68 games does not in any way mean they had 68 win talent.

 

Actually I think that is exactly what it means.

I respect your opinion but I think you are wrong. Teams play above or below their talent every year. W/L record does not tell how much talent you have. I wouldn't be shocked to see the Brewers win more games in 2016. I don't think they are a better or more talented team though just that in 2015 the Brewers underplayed their talent.

[And That]

None of the guys Davis and Lind brought back figure to start the year above high A ball.

It is possible to likely that Nottingham will begin next season in AA.

[And That]

Just because a team only won 68 games does not in any way mean they had 68 win talent.

 

Actually I think that is exactly what it means.

So the most talented team in baseball always wins the World Series?

 

Or at least the 10 most talented teams in baseball always make the postseason?

[logan82]

None of the guys Davis and Lind brought back figure to start the year above high A ball.

It is possible to likely that Nottingham will begin next season in AA.

and if they don't, it doesn't really matter.

[brewcrewdue80]

How fun to base the opinion of Santana because of winterball. Ignore the fact he was at what? Game 155-200 on his year playing on 5th team? Maybe the guy just didn't care but fulfilled being there.

 

Braun's going nowhere. Lucroy isn't going anywhere til July at earliest. While this offense could produce bad(CF,3b) Villar won't be 2015 Segura bad. And there's a chance these throwaways actually produce. Liriano just has far too positive AAA numbers to suggest he's 100% going to be terrible. If so, there's a half dozen CFs to throw in the lineup to find one that's not terrible.

 

As mentioned the pitchers are better and have upside to the general prediction. Even there you have options to find the hot hand. It's not Garza is 6ERA and we must endure 33starts of it. 10-12 and he's under 4ERA or else he's gone.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster.

 

IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM.

 

The difference is in the method. The Bucks would often sacrifice the future for a slightly better but not good enough present. If the Brewers improve while also building up their minor leagues, that's a victory. The draft pick might be slightly worse, but it also likely means that several guys with a lot of team control have stepped forward. Maybe Villar, Broxton or Liriano make a claim at being part of the future. Maybe Chase Anderson helps the rotation take a step forward. It's about acquiring value more than losses. If the Brewers succeed despite trading away the veterans, that won't be a failure, it will mean that they have acquired more value both for now and the future.

 

I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design. Luc will be gone soon and likely Braun once they figure out the math on moving his contract. You'd have to about as hard core a fan as there is to not look at that remaining lineup as the worst in the game.

 

If the Brewers were even thinking of competing in the next 2 plus years there is no way they trade away Davis who cost very little vs his production. Throw in the possibility of the DH and you have no reason to move him at all unless you want to tank.

 

Had the Brewers trades been similar to July I'd disagree with the tanking model, but since they are going for guys like Diaz, the sherif, and the 3 rookie league lottery tickets from Seattle, it's quite clear the team has no interest it trying to build the MLB roster the next few years in what would be a futile effort vs the Cubs, Pirates, and Cards.

 

The thing is, I'm pretty sure every trade made this offseason except the Lind deal has included someone who will start the season in AA or higher. While I don't see the point as being improving the big league club, I also don't think that making it worse was the point. Personally I think acquiring long-term value was the point. As for Davis, the corner outfield was a position of strength. Not everyone can play.

[Baldkin]

Some of you are making this out to be the equivalent of trading Overbay to make room for Fielder. Make no mistake Domingo Santana is no Prince Fielder, and Khris Davis possesses a unique skill (power) .

 

I don't see anyone saying this or even hinting this. What people Are saying is that it gives us an opportunity to see if Santana has the ability to play at the major league level. Also to say that Davis has a unique skill is a bit of a false statement. He has power which is nice but it is certainly not unique.

 

It's very, very unique in Davis' case. He truly has prolific power, and I wish I could've seen him without RRR messing with him with the 'contact, contact, swing at the first pitch, stop walking' mantra before the 2014 season.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/68-win-as-get-khris-davis-from-68-win-brewers/

 

According to Baseball Savant — and therefore Statcast — last year Davis ranked in the top five percent in average batted-ball speed on flies and liners. Over the last three years, since Davis debuted, he’s ranked in the top six percent in hard-hit rate. More specifically, he’s ranked in the top three percent in hard-hit rate on flies and liners. I know that sounds complicated but I’m just leaving grounders out because hard-hit grounders are less productive. Davis makes good contact when he puts the ball somewhere in the air. His air-ball hard-hit rate is basically tied with Chris Davis and Matt Kemp.

 

There’s something else about him that’s kind of neat. I took the last three years, again, and I narrowed all the hitters down to guys with at least 100 batted balls to the pull side, up the middle, and the other way. Davis is one of just three players with a hard-hit rate north of 35% to all three fields. The others are Paul Goldschmidt and Miguel Cabrera. The contact quality is fantastic, and Oakland has been somewhat starved for this sort of strength.

[Ennder]

A 68 win talent team will likely win between 80 and 56 games, baseball really is that volatile a sport when you are looking at a signed teams results.

[MKE81]

This team will absolutely no doubt about it be a 100 loss team in 2016. The only issue in question is has he made the MLB roster bad enough to catch the Phillies, Reds, and Braves who are following the exact same blue print.

 

So you're saying there will be four 100 loss teams in 2016?

 

Last I looked, Vegas odds had the Brewers at around 71 wins. Not sure if I'd take the over on that, but I absolutely would on 62.

 

Vegas sees them at 3 games better after losing Lind, KRod, and Davis and replacing them with other teams 40 man rejects? Is that current? I'd love to see the metrics on such an estimate with the current roster.

 

IF Stearns goal is to go from 68 to 71 wins then we hired the wrong guy. That would be a Herb Kohl kind of GM.

 

I have no idea how many 100 loss teams there will be but the Brewers will be one, by design. Luc will be gone soon and likely Braun once they figure out the math on moving his contract. You'd have to about as hard core a fan as there is to not look at that remaining lineup as the worst in the game.

 

If the Brewers were even thinking of competing in the next 2 plus years there is no way they trade away Davis who cost very little vs his production. Throw in the possibility of the DH and you have no reason to move him at all unless you want to tank.

 

Had the Brewers trades been similar to July I'd disagree with the tanking model, but since they are going for guys like Diaz, the sherif, and the 3 rookie league lottery tickets from Seattle, it's quite clear the team has no interest it trying to build the MLB roster the next few years in what would be a futile effort vs the Cubs, Pirates, and Cards.

 

Actually there's plenty of reason to trade Davis. His arm is horrendous, his ball tracking is average, the past 2yrs in 900ABs he has a 305 OBP?, he doesn't hit for average, his K rate increased last year, he's 28yrs old (much older than other OFs in system) and moving him opens the door for a guaranteed spot for Santana - a 23yr old Top 100 heading into last year where he killed AAA...again...and he's cheaper and more controllable.

 

No interest in building MLB roster within next 3yrs? Assuming Braun is still on team next year, and with Santana having a spot this year now, he'll have Arcia, Phillips, Cecchini (if back to "normal") up next year. That's 5 position players. Carter is still under control if he has a decently productive season and long term 1b isn't addressed. That leaves 2b (maybe Vilar or someone else) and C at MLB level in 2017. There are still a half dozen pieces to be traded that could impact MLB roster next year as well or the following. This doesn't include signing free agents with this low payroll. Lopez, Hader, Davies for rotation by 2017. Houser (I think he should be in pen but will be looked at in rotation), Magnifico, Barnes, etc in pen by 2017. Why in the world would Stearns try to stack the MLB roster to compete this year when all of these guys will have spots the following year?

[SRB]

I honestly don't see why anyone cares whether we are a 62-win team or a 81-win team. Nobody expects us to make the playoffs, and either way you're looking at a >50% chance we lose any given game. Who cares???