Khris Davis to the A's for C Jacob Nottingham and RHP Bubba Derby; Latest: Sean Nolin claimed from A's, too

[MrTPlush]

Davis hit 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, which I would have to imagine is a Brewer record. Guys like him arent easy to replace especially factoring in age and years of control.

 

Prince Fielder 2007 matched Khris Davis with 20 also.

[Boomer5]

Davis hit 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, which I would have to imagine is a Brewer record. Guys like him arent easy to replace especially factoring in age and years of control.

 

Prince Fielder 2007 matched Khris Davis with 20 also.

 

Thanks! I didn't look it up, but that is impressive that Davis is in that kind of company.

[MrTPlush]

I heard there was concern with Khris Davis' power leaving Miller Park:

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v398874083/milwsh-davis-blasts-a-solo-home-run-to-left-field/?c_id=mlb

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v469675983/milpit-davis-crushes-tworun-homer-to-center-field/?c_id=mlb

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v111320383/cwsmil-davis-demolishes-a-solo-homer-to-left/?c_id=mlb

 

On top of this other interesting facts:

 

-Khris Davis was #7 in all of baseball when it came to average HR distance, clocking in at 412 feet.

 

Here is all of his homeruns from last year and where they would land in O.co:

 

http://i1241.photobucket.com/albums/gg515/TonyPlush/O.co%20Coliseum.jpg

 

 

EDIT: I'd like to add these are "true" distances and doesn't take into account the wall. However Khris Davis typically doesn't hit liners so most of these would likely go over. You could make an argument a few of the gap homers might hit the taller walls. Bottom line Khris Davis has the power to hit a lot in O.co

[TheEndless7]

And all everyone wants to discuss is his power, even though he's averaging 29HR per 500AB with 64% being SOLO. Every run matters but if a decent majority of your power doesn't produce runs than its not as great as it appears on the surface. And he doesn't produce a lot of runs outside of HRs either.

 

This made no sense to me and seemed just oddly off. My initial thought was 'well of course that's the case, you get more at bats with no people on than with people on, thus you'd expect more solo home runs. So I decided to do some math.

 

Khris Davis has 1142 career ABs; 628 of them have come with no runners on. That meas 55% of his at bats the only 'home run' outcome is a solo home run.

 

There were 4909 home runs hit last year in MLB. 2887 of them were hit with no one on. That's .588, we'll say 59%. All of MLB isn't a power hitter.

 

Khris Davis hit 17 solo home runs last season; 27 home runs total; or .629. So we'll call it 63. Players with a higher percentage of solo home runs include Alex Rodriguez at 76%, Mike Trout at 78%, Manny Machado 74%, and Josh Donaldson at 68%

 

More striking to me is that 10 of Davis's home runs came when he was leading off an inning. Over half of his solo home runs, he was the first person to Bat that inning. I'm sorry he didn't hit a single instead?

 

Albert Pujols ended with .625. or 63% as well.

 

Bryce Harper ended with 25 solo home runs, on 42 total home runs or 59.5%. 12 of his 42 came when leading off an inning. His last four home runs were with runners on. If you take those out, it's 66%. Which to me shows how finicky this statistic can be.

 

So really looking at league averages, I don't think it's unreasonable for a power hitter to have 63% of his home runs be solo shots while playing on a team that ranks 25th in OBP. So lampooning Davis because he hits solo home runs, seems, well, off, for lack of a better term.

 

And, further to the point of not producing runs outside of power, I'm pretty sure if every one of his lead off home runs had been a single or a double, the Brewers would have scored fewer runs on the season.

 

 

And to be even more of a nerd; last year there were 85436 plate appearances in MLB. 56926 of them occurred with no one on base. That's 0.666 or 67% of the time someone steps up to the plate. Numbers are fun.

[Surhoff5]

EDIT: I'd like to add these are "true" distances and doesn't take into account the wall. However Khris Davis typically doesn't hit liners so most of these would likely go over. You could make an argument a few of the gap homers might hit the taller walls. Bottom line Khris Davis has the power to hit a lot in O.co

 

That is a pretty cool graphic and makes one think he will be fine in a more spacious field. However, his SLG was over 200 points higher at home last year than on the road. While he did hit 11 of his 27 HR's on the road, he literally only had two additional extra base hits outside of Miller Park.

[MrTPlush]

EDIT: I'd like to add these are "true" distances and doesn't take into account the wall. However Khris Davis typically doesn't hit liners so most of these would likely go over. You could make an argument a few of the gap homers might hit the taller walls. Bottom line Khris Davis has the power to hit a lot in O.co

 

That is a pretty cool graphic and makes one think he will be fine in a more spacious field. However, his SLG was over 200 points higher at home last year than on the road. While he did hit 11 of his 27 HR's on the road, he literally only had two additional extra base hits outside of Miller Park.

 

That is true, but 2014 tells an entirely different story. He had 20 doubles on the road compared to 17 at home. He was about as even as you can get across the board stat wise. I think 2015 is more of a weird occurrence than something real with Khris Davis. Nothing about him from 2014 to 2015 says Khris Davis would have such an extreme change.

 

By the way this is the site the graphic comes from...great site to play around with:

 

http://www.hittrackeronline.com/index.php?h=MIL&p=&b=

[MrTPlush]

I think when it comes to ballpark factors it really is more than just the overall dimensions. Some ballparks have very deep gaps, but still only go to 400ft. in center. If you aren't a gap hitter those big gaps aren't going to effect your HR totals very much.

 

AT&T Park is widely considered very pitcher friendly due to an extremely deep RF gap. In 2014 Khris Davis would have had 5 HRs swallowed by the spacious RF gap. In 2015 he would have had only 2 HRs denied by the RF gap. Why? Because Khris Davis was an extreme gap hitter in 2014 hitting nothing to dead center, but in 2015 he hit a lot of his HRs to dead center. Ballpark factors depend largely on what type of hitter you are. I bet Ichiro loves hitting in pitcher parks.

 

Regardless I think Khris Davis is going to fair just fine going just about anywhere when averaging 411ft. on his homers.

[xisxisxis]

RBI Percentage (baseballmusings.com) is a measure of the success rate when a hitter bats with batters on and is calculated as:

 

RBI Percentage is 100*(RBI-HR)/Runners On

 

Khris Davis for 2014-2015 (2 seasons) his RBI% = 14.10 which puts him just below the RBI Machine Jace Peterson (14.11), but above Derek Jeter (14.02) yet not as good as Scooter Gennet (14.17). For comparison, the #3 on the list for that time period is Ryan Braun at 19.39. Looking simply at RBI% and Khris Davis is pretty BAD....

[Thurston Fluff]

http://m.astros.mlb.com/news/article/164812320

 

Well it's official....Khris Davis has the saddest most pathetic noodle arm in baseball.... Dead last (#121) averaging 78 mph on competitive throws (Gomez 2nd best at 98 mph). To say the least, I'm not sad to see that are go in LF. Could score on him all day

 

And all everyone wants to discuss is his power, even though he's averaging 29HR per 500AB with 64% being SOLO. Every run matters but if a decent majority of your power doesn't produce runs than its not as great as it appears on the surface. And he doesn't produce a lot of runs outside of HRs either. Santana, using last years stint with us, would have hit 25HR in 500AB. Back to Davis' arm, id be curious to see the numbers comparing his run production vs how many runs he's essentially giving up because of his arm, which allows so many extra bases to be taken putting much more pressure on the pitcher and defense. No doubt this year it would have been worse given what the Cubs, etc were doing vs him 2nd half last year. 78mph on competitive throws is literally comical

 

If only they had defensive metrics to show runs saved... oh wait... He's pretty much graded out as an average to slightly below average fielder in LF, which includes his arm, which each of the last two years was worth about -5 runs, or 1/2 a win in WAR.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9112&position=OF

 

I really think you're overrating how many 'extra bases' and 'extra runs' his arm gives up. It's the same as people who complain about a C's throw to 2nd. It just doesn't happen as often as you think.

 

Thank you. I was going to post that a while back and forgot to. He was not nearly as bad as people made him out to be. It's similar to when people thought Lucroy's fairly poor ability to throw base runners out meant he was a terrible defensive catcher. Dig a little deeper and you find out they compensated for that by doing other things very well. In a way it's kind of impressive to be so bad at one thing but work hard enough at the things he could control to make up for it.

[sveumrules]

RBI Percentage (baseballmusings.com) is a measure of the success rate when a hitter bats with batters on and is calculated as:

 

RBI Percentage is 100*(RBI-HR)/Runners On

 

Khris Davis for 2014-2015 (2 seasons) his RBI% = 14.10 which puts him just below the RBI Machine Jace Peterson (14.11), but above Derek Jeter (14.02) yet not as good as Scooter Gennet (14.17). For comparison, the #3 on the list for that time period is Ryan Braun at 19.39. Looking simply at RBI% and Khris Davis is pretty BAD....

 

Other players with at least 500 runners on over the last 2 seasons with percentages in the same range as Khris include Albert Pujols 14.86, Alex Gordon 14.75, Nelson Cruz 14.46, Chase Utley 14.39, Anthony Rendon 14.36, AJ Pollock 14.26, Evan Longoria 14.17, Curtis Granderson 14.00, Manny Machado 13.73, Carlos Santana 13.57, Yasiel Puig 13.56, Jason Heyward 13.53, Ben Zobrist 13.51, Yadier Molina 13.46, Carlos Beltran 13.45, etc, etc.

 

So looking simply at RBI% it would appear many of the games better players are pretty BAD.

[xisxisxis]

So looking simply at RBI% it would appear many of the games better players are pretty BAD.

 

by better do you mean above average? above replacement? or just a handful of guys you like?

 

During that period (2014-2015), Davis ranks in the low 140's for players with a minimum of 250 Runners on. Not horrible, but clearly not an elite slugging OF, but heck we got OPS and other metrics to see that KD is a one trick pony (HR). He'll be cheap for 1 more year and below market for 3 additional. Given his overall age, makeup, etc. I would take the under on him getting better over that period...

[sveumrules]

So looking simply at RBI% it would appear many of the games better players are pretty BAD.

 

by better do you mean above average? above replacement? or just a handful of guys you like?

 

During that period (2014-2015), Davis ranks in the low 140's for players with a minimum of 250 Runners on. Not horrible, but clearly not an elite slugging OF, but heck we got OPS and other metrics to see that KD is a one trick pony (HR). He'll be cheap for 1 more year and below market for 3 additional. Given his overall age, makeup, etc. I would take the under on him getting better over that period...

 

Right, Davis ranks 142nd out of 332 players in RBI percentage with at least 250 runners on over the last two years. Not horrible, not elite, but above the median so clearly not BAD.

 

By better, I meant just that. Players that are (or in a couple cases have very recently been) good hitters. I've pasted the same list I posted previously with the player's RBI percentages replaced by their wRC+.

 

Albert Pujols 120, Alex Gordon 122, Nelson Cruz 147, Chase Utley 92, Anthony Rendon 119, AJ Pollock 133, Evan Longoria 108, Curtis Granderson 120, Manny Machado 126, Carlos Santana 119, Yasiel Puig 135, Jason Heyward 115, Ben Zobrist 120, Yadier Molina 90, Carlos Beltran 108.

[pacopete4]

RBI Percentage (baseballmusings.com) the #3 on the list for that time period is Ryan Braun at 19.39.

 

 

Ryan Braun is good at baseball.

[brewcrewdue80]

Davis hit 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, which I would have to imagine is a Brewer record. Guys like him arent easy to replace especially factoring in age and years of control.

 

Prince Fielder 2007 matched Khris Davis with 20 also.

 

Looking at Gorman Thomas 21HRs in 1979

[danzig6767]

Going forward for both Davis and Oakland, i think the two biggest keys will be

 

1. Was that great second half of last year with all of those home runs more a fluky outlier or can he be a 30 plus homer guy if given 500-600 at bats each year?

 

2. Was his increased walk rate last season that was more in line with his walk rate in the minors something he'll continue with Oakland because odds are he'll remain roughly a .250ish batting average guy? If he does keep his walk rate more in line with last season, that would allow Davis to carry a decent OBP vs a bad OBP if his walk rate was more like his 2014 season.

 

I think the power is very legit and thus he will be a 30-35ish homer guy for Oakland if he stays healthy enough to get 500 plus at bats, i'm less certain though about where both his walk rate and batting average numbers will roughly sit around over the next few years to combine for OBP stats.

[jerichoholicninja]

So looking simply at RBI% it would appear many of the games better players are pretty BAD.

 

by better do you mean above average? above replacement? or just a handful of guys you like?

 

During that period (2014-2015), Davis ranks in the low 140's for players with a minimum of 250 Runners on. Not horrible, but clearly not an elite slugging OF, but heck we got OPS and other metrics to see that KD is a one trick pony (HR). He'll be cheap for 1 more year and below market for 3 additional. Given his overall age, makeup, etc. I would take the under on him getting better over that period...

 

I'm not sure if the argument you're presenting is sarcasm or not but using RBI% of whatever you want to call it to determine a players value or talent is pretty useless.

[CheezWizHed]

Davis hit 20 HRs in Aug and Sep, which I would have to imagine is a Brewer record. Guys like him arent easy to replace especially factoring in age and years of control.

 

Prince Fielder 2007 matched Khris Davis with 20 also.

 

Looking at Gorman Thomas 21HRs in 1979

 

Davis in with Prince and Thomas is being in good company

[AdvantageSchneider]

Mashers who were sub-par fielders.

[djoctagone]

khris davis leads the majors in strikeouts. he has 13 in 23 at-bats.

[dlk9s]

Mashers who were sub-par fielders.

Interesting. I was thinking mashers who went on to play in the AL West.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Unfortunately, Mr. Davis is off to an absolutely dreadful start to his tenure as the A's right-handed thunder in the lineup - After 46 AB's, Davis has yet to homer, doubled once, K'd 20 times and walked twice. That equates to a disheartening 0.174Avg/0.196SLG/0.420OPS slash line.

 

It's still earlier than early, but a very rocky start.

[wildcat2237]

Unfortunately, Mr. Davis is off to an absolutely dreadful start to his tenure as the A's right-handed thunder in the lineup - After 46 AB's, Davis has yet to homer, doubled once, K'd 20 times and walked twice. That equates to a disheartening 0.174Avg/0.196SLG/0.420OPS slash line.

 

It's still earlier than early, but a very rocky start.

 

And Jean Segura is absolutely mashing for the Dbacks. Go figure.

[MrTPlush]

Hard to quite grasp his 8 OPS+

 

Hope he can turn it around.

[jjfanec]

Unfortunately, Mr. Davis is off to an absolutely dreadful start to his tenure as the A's right-handed thunder in the lineup - After 46 AB's, Davis has yet to homer, doubled once, K'd 20 times and walked twice. That equates to a disheartening 0.174Avg/0.196SLG/0.420OPS slash line.

 

It's still earlier than early, but a very rocky start.

 

And Jean Segura is absolutely mashing for the Dbacks. Go figure.

 

Segura will be really interesting to follow. His power is crazy right now. He had half a season like this in Milwaukee, however reports are that he changed his stance and swing. Oddly he changed it on his own. The Diamondbacks had nothing to do with it. The one red flag for Segura is that he still isnt walking. Just two so far this year but other than that he is on fire

[fondybrewfan]

Segura has also hit around .200 over the last week so yeah he is already coming back down to earth. He also still has only 2 walks.