Khris Davis to the A's for C Jacob Nottingham and RHP Bubba Derby; Latest: Sean Nolin claimed from A's, too

[monty57]

re: Bubba Derby

 

Any guy at that level is a long shot to make the majors, but I love that we are amassing boatloads of guys like him, greatly increasing the chance that some of them will make the majors down the road. When some of them start hitting the majors, people will scratch their heads and wonder how they were the "throw-in" in a trade.

 

re: "Tanking"

 

I think this topic is getting over-played, as it really seems to be coming down to posters' perception of the word. It's obvious we are not trying to maximize wins in 2016, but I don't think we are trying to maximize losses. Rather, we are using a season that is "lost" to give some young, talented guys a shot to see if they will be part of the future. I hope we find a "gem" or two who can help the team for the next five or six years as the prospects start populating the MLB roster.

 

As to "tanking" for the next three years, the "Astros/Cubs model," that would seem to be a bad idea. Their prizes in the minors, Arcia and Phillips, will be up in 2017. If we were to shoot for 100 losses to get better draft position for the next three years, we would be throwing away the years we have Arcia and Phillips. By the time we started to climb from that 100 loss floor Arcia and Phillips would already by in their arby years, and the draft picks we received wouldn't make the roster until Arcia and Phillips were on their way out.

 

Saying there is no time frame is a good marketing plan, as putting a number of years on the rebuild would almost assuredly come back to bite Stearns. That said, I believe that Arcia/Phillips will be up in 2017, putting us right around where we were when Weeks/Fielder made their MLB debuts, with talent coming up and a lot of payroll flexibility to add pieces as needed... far ahead of where the Astros and Cubs were when they started their overhaul.

 

Let's just enjoy 2016 for what it is, a showcase year for some young talent, and a year in which we will very likely make more "veteran-for-prospect" trades at the deadline. We will see some of our prospects this year, and a lot more in 2017.

 

Re: Davis vs. Santana

 

Who cares if Davis or Santana hit more HR in 2016? That's meaningless. The fact is that we have Braun, and with his back surgery he's not getting traded, leaving one corner OF spot open with two talented players to fill it. We were in a position where trading the veteran made a ton of sense, and I hope that thought process continues even when we are out of the rebuild. If you have two MLB-caliber guys with a similar talent level, trade the older guy who has less control. Get young talent in return and let the younger guy play.

 

Davis is talented... that's why we were able to trade him. He has a lot of power, which is what people love about him, but he also has "warts," which is why no one was talking about getting a "Gomez-type" return. That's what we hope for in a Lucroy trade, not a Davis trade. Instead, we got a guy who's big question mark among scouts doesn't seem to be whether he'll make the majors, but whether he'll make the majors as a catcher or a first baseman. Catcher would obviously be preferable, but I'd take a good hitting first baseman from the deal if that's the downside. He will probably start in AA, meaning he could be in the majors in 2017-2018, helping out that "first wave" group I mentioned earlier. The added bonus is that we have something to hope for at catcher when Lucroy gets traded, increasing the hope that we won't have years of ineptitude at catcher.

[gregmag]

I like YoungGeezy's point about Derby's resemblance to Thornburg. Everyone who's saying we don't really know much about Thornburg is right. But YG is right too -- we got excited about Thornburg based on very similar information. The fact that a guy like that now strikes most of us as an afterthought shows how good our system has gotten.

 

The debate about talent and winning is interesting. I think it's just a disagreement about first principles. Thurston Fluff, if I'm reading him right, doesn't believe that "true talent level" as distinct from who wins the most games is real. I'm with those who disagree, but it's an interesting premise.

 

I haven't said much about the Davis trade, partially because he had become just about my favorite Brewer, and I was sad to see him go. He could definitely take his talent to a higher level (though his new home park would likely mask the improvement). His power is elite. His overall defense is passable, despite his noodle arm. He added more walks to his approach last year. He's not the swing-and-miss machine some power hitters are.

 

Still, I love the trade. Davis has one important thing Santana doesn't have: a real major league track record. But people who emphasize that tend to ignore other, less perfect but still valuable evidence of a player's ability, and they also tend to overestimate a "proven" major league player's ability to sustain a high level of performance. The biggest example of this, for me, is Lind. To assume Lind will continue to do what he did last year boggles my mind. If you look at his career numbers and his birth date, last year screams "fluke success amid decline." Davis isn't like that at all, but he certainly could decline, as surely as he could improve. Beyond that, Santana has a bunch of things Davis doesn't have: a stronger prospect pedigree, an arm, four extra years of youth, and two extra years of control. In choosing to trade Davis and keep Santana, we sacrificed some of the thing we need least right now -- certainty -- while holding onto the things (besides the arm, which is gravy) that we need most -- upside and time to try to reach it.

[Boomer5]

Here is the latest fangraphs projections of the current MLB roster. We can repackage the term tanking and call it rebuilding if that makes folks feel better.....but look at this roster closely and how it ranks vs other teams. The Brewers roster currently ranks third from the bottom and that is before the Luc, Wily, and Smith deals. It also features a .9 contribution from Arcia and Im not sure if he is projected to play at all in Milwaukee now though I haven't heard the latest plans. He sure seems ready but its a clock issue.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

Back on topic, the Davis trade almost mandates the move of Braun to LF, as the Brewers current projected LF has a combined WAR of 0.5, which is incomprehensible.

[sveumrules]

We can repackage the term tanking and call it rebuilding if that makes folks feel better.

 

The term "rebuilding" entered the sports lexicon long before the term "tanking" did. Therefore, if either of the two is being "repackaged" it would be rebuilding repackaged as tanking, and not the other way around.

[Mass Haas]

Detailed Nottingham write-up from Baseball Prospectus today

[MadScientist]

So 4 years of Khris Davis got from Oakland about what Oakland got for a half year rental of Scott Kazmir. To me that seems like the return was low for someone with rare power numbers. If Nottingham works out at catcher, then it is all good, but it has to work out. Either Sterns likes Nottingham a whole lot, or he was somewhat desperate to get a catching prospect in the system.

 

Regardless of how this works out, I will miss Davis's walk up music. It was the only one I liked.

 

I wouldn't overlook Bubba Derby in all of this. The BA prospect handbook was just as high on Derby as they were on Nottingham. Throw in Stearns success in Houston with snatching up young pitching prospects before they exploded onto the scene and I'm really intrigued with the guy.

 

I wasn't overlooking Bubba. The A's also received a pitcher, Daniel Mengden, in the Kazmir trade. By age and numbers they are similar, thus my comment that 1/2 year of Kazmir got the same return as 4 years of Davis. Nottingham was the centerpiece of the trade, so the future evaluation of it will be based more on how he develops. Trading Davis was a reasonable thing to do, I just think the Brewers should have been able to get a bit more than they did.

[CheezWizHed]

For reference, Fangraphs' playoff odds (based more or less on perceived talent level at the time) going into last season had the Phillies at 99.8% likely not to make the playoffs, but both World Series teams were less than 30% likely to make the playoffs (and both under 2% likely to win the World Series). Teams among the most likely to make the playoffs included the Nationals, Mariners, Red Sox, Angels, and Indians.

 

Obviously there can be some debate over the methodology in any particular simulation and talent level changes over the course of the season, but I think it is readily apparent that a team with X talent level will not always have Y wins - it just doesn't work like that. X talent may give you a two deviation likelihood of Y +/- 10 wins (or whatever the # may be). Talent over or under performs more or less all of the time.

 

It would be interesting to re-run the predictive numbers based on the trades/promotions that happened during the season rather than based on the starting roster. The Royals made some big changes and NYM made one or two also.

[Jenkins5]

"Bubba Derby's real name is Bowdien Henry Asa Derby, which may actually be a better name than Bubba, but that's a story for another time. Derby has exceptional arm strength, and when he was working as the San Diego State closer early in his time for the Aztecs, he'd get his fastball up to 98 mph. As a starter, the fastball is still plus, sitting 92-94 with late life. His best offspeed pitch is a change that he throws too much, but it flashes above-average with his quick arm speed and a smidgen of late fade. The slider isn't where it needs to be at this point as it's often flat and doesn't have the depth you'd look for in a starter's breaking ball. He's also battled command issues, and as a pitcher who stands under six feet tall, there are concerns about his durability.

 

If the Brewers chose to move him to the bullpen he could become a high-leverage guy because of his arm strength and two quality pitches, but no should blame Milwaukee if they chose to see if the breaking ball improves, as there's no. 4 starter potential if/when that slider sharpens." —Christopher Crawford

[homer]

"tanking" implies losing on purpose in order to improve one's draft status.

 

"rebuilding" typically results in additional losses but that is not the goal.

[Boomer5]

"tanking" implies losing on purpose in order to improve one's draft status.

 

"rebuilding" typically results in additional losses but that is not the goal.

 

That is semantics. Fangraphs has the current MLB roster at 24 WAR, third worst in the game. Only the Braves at 21 and the Phillies at 20 are worse. Luc is at 2.6 so his trade will get is very close to the worst roster in baseball. Smith is 1.6 as is Wily, two trade candidates. If all three go, you get the picture.

 

When you trade productive major leagers with no FA issues for guys in A ball you are planning on losing games and a lot of them. To think that Stearns hasn't considered draft position when he unloads most of our productive players and replaces them with other teams cast offs seems a bit naive.

 

Let me point out I'm very happy the Brewers are doing this. With 2-3 top drafts, they will have a super power by 2019. I get the Brewer marketing department can't say this and I even get fans can't swallow this but it's happening.

[homer]

I guarantee you that the Brewers do not want 2 - 3 years picking top five in the draft. And even if they did the players drafted in the next 2 - 3 years would have no impact on a 2019 team.

[brewerfan82]

"tanking" implies losing on purpose in order to improve one's draft status.

 

"rebuilding" typically results in additional losses but that is not the goal.

 

That is semantics. Fangraphs has the current MLB roster at 24 WAR, third worst in the game. Only the Braves at 21 and the Phillies at 20 are worse. Luc is at 2.6 so his trade will get is very close to the worst roster in baseball. Smith is 1.6 as is Wily, two trade candidates. If all three go, you get the picture.

 

When you trade productive major leagers with no FA issues for guys in A ball you are planning on losing games and a lot of them. To think that Stearns hasn't considered draft position when he unloads most of our productive players and replaces them with other teams cast offs seems a bit naive.

 

Let me point out I'm very happy the Brewers are doing this. With 2-3 top drafts, they will have a super power by 2019. I get the Brewer marketing department can't say this and I even get fans can't swallow this but it's happening.

 

I think that was his point. You don't seem to care that your definition of "tanking" differs from many others here. Unless, of course, you truly think the the main strategy for turning around this team is to lose as many games as possible by trading away several established players in order to get a couple high draft picks in the system the next couple years and don't think the actual bigger advantage is that those trades are restocking the farm system with several more players that will be making it to the big leagues the next realistic time we could be contending and that in the meantime the best use of our major league roster is to fill it with players who are still young, talented, and have the potential to break out given an opportunity. Do you think Stearns is really going to be upset if this team exceeds expectations because it ruins his lose 100 games plan?

 

Many of us don't like the term "tanking" not because it implies losing, but because it's an awful strategy.

[FVBrewerFan]

If the Brewers had no first round draft pick in 2017, it wouldn't have changed one thing Stearns has done.

[sveumrules]

When you trade productive major leagers with no FA issues for guys in A ball you are planning on losing games and a lot of them.

 

Not receiving any major league ready talent in the Davis/Lind trades has no bearing on the W/L record of the major league team in 2016 since they won't be replaced by the players received. The difference in the projections between Domingo Carter & Khris Lind is hardly large enough to constitute tanking. There is also a very real chance the replacements out produce the departed.

[jjfanec]

Tanking - Gutting your team and losing on purpose to get better draft picks or make a run for free agents the next off season.

Rebuilding - Realizing your window has past and restocking your farm system to win in the next couple years. Rebuilding recognizes your team couldnt win long term and changing your strategy to get younger and create a new window.

Stupidity - Continuing to sign aging middle of the road players in order to finish close to .500. You are not going to win the World Series but you keep holding out hope of some miracle playoff run. This was the Milwaukee Bucks plan for years. Look where it go them.

[Boomer5]

When you trade productive major leagers with no FA issues for guys in A ball you are planning on losing games and a lot of them.

 

Not receiving any major league ready talent in the Davis/Lind trades has no bearing on the W/L record of the major league team in 2016 since they won't be replaced by the players received. The difference in the projections between Domingo Carter & Khris Lind is hardly large enough to constitute tanking. There is also a very real chance the replacements out produce the departed.

 

In this day of analytics, we are kind of passed general statements like any back up/waiver guy will be good enough to replace X and Y.

 

Id strongly suggest anyone that thinks the MLB roster was improved with all these moves study this.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=23

 

The Brewers are tanking because:

 

1.) The strategy has worked perfectly for Chicago and Houston, not just in 2015 but for years to come

2.) It is the lowest cost way to generate a legitimate contender for a 5+ year window.

3.) The Brewers have not one but three teams ahead of them in their division that are likely to be 90 wins the next 2 years minimum. The window is perfect.

4.) The strategy/serendipity worked beautifully in Milwaukee under Dean Taylor, though I remain unconvinced he knew he was putting together some horrendous MLB rosters. Regardless of strategy, the Brewers would not have had their run of good teams recently had it not been for Dean Taylor transactioning us into the worst roster in baseball and being able to pick up Braun and Prince. All hail Jeffrey Hammonds and Jamie Wright!

5.) Not only do the Brewers have no shot at an A list FA under the current CBA, they have very little chance of retaining an A List player they produce unless that player has some warts either known or unknown. So unconventional tactics are the only strategy left.

 

But back on point, if you look at the Brewer run producers the last few years and factor in their ages, IF the strategy was to put a quality team on the field in 2016 at a manageable cost, Davis and Luc would be untouchable baring a too good to be true trade offer, because their production to cost is 5 star. Both are rare tool guys; in raw power - fangraphs compared his all field power to only Miggy and Goldschmitt - and a legitimate 2 way All Star catcher both under 30, both cost controlled for years.

 

I will make you a deal; I will stop using the term tanking if you folks stop acting like the MLB team is improved.

[RobDeer 45]

Boomer5 - nice post.

 

First of all, I like this trade. I'm all for it, even if it doesn't end up a great one. Our hope is we end up with a few studs and a few average players from all the trades Stearns has made. I think Davis will do better with an American League team, so it's good for him too.

 

I honestly don't see how people think Stearns is trying to put a better team on the field. They may play some good baseball at times, but if these stop gap players are doing well, they will be traded.

[jerichoholicninja]

I will make you a deal; I will stop using the term tanking if you folks stop acting like the MLB team is improved.

 

I'm not sure anyone is saying the MLB team is improved over last year. I see a lot of people saying the 2016 team might have a better record than the 2015 team which certainly is possible considering Lohse was terrible, Garza was terrible and can't be any worse this year, Ramirez was terrible, Lucroy and Scooter were crap for 1/2 a year, and Segura was crap for a whole year. Last year was such a disaster for so many players. If the new guys can play to even the bottom of their expectations the 2016 record shouldn't be any worse than 2015.

[Boomer5]

Boomer5 - nice post.

 

First of all, I like this trade. I'm all for it, even if it doesn't end up a great one. Our hope is we end up with a few studs and a few average players from all the trades Stearns has made. I think Davis will do better with an American League team, so it's good for him too.

 

I honestly don't see how people think Stearns is trying to put a better team on the field. They may play some good baseball at times, but if these stop gap players are doing well, they will be traded.

 

Thanks! I cant say I love the trade because I have my doubts that Nottingham stays at Catcher. But it isnt a bad trade by any means and Davis, while possessing incredible power, was also a flawed player that could be injured in ST and we would get even less in return. This seems to be a win win trade as Oakland has the DH so his value is greater for them than us.

 

I do think Stearns got taken pretty badly on the Lind trade but since then his strategy has become more clear - A ball and rookie guys with plus tools, and former prospects that have flamed out but had some tools in the past that just may figure something out at no real cost. The Diamondback trade was an A and this seems to be a solid B/B-. I will be very interested in how he handles the Luc trade since much more highly ranked prospects will be on the table.

 

The next phase will be the player development and then the draft where I can see this board having a huge amount of interest, far more than we will have at the MLB game threads, and that says it all.

[Jenkins5]

The Brewers are tanking because:

 

1.) The strategy has worked perfectly for Chicago and Houston, not just in 2015 but for years to come

2.) It is the lowest cost way to generate a legitimate contender for a 5+ year window.

3.) The Brewers have not one but three teams ahead of them in their division that are likely to be 90 wins the next 2 years minimum. The window is perfect.

4.) The strategy/serendipity worked beautifully in Milwaukee under Dean Taylor, though I remain unconvinced he knew he was putting together some horrendous MLB rosters. Regardless of strategy, the Brewers would not have had their run of good teams recently had it not been for Dean Taylor transactioning us into the worst roster in baseball and being able to pick up Braun and Prince. All hail Jeffrey Hammonds and Jamie Wright!

5.) Not only do the Brewers have no shot at an A list FA under the current CBA, they have very little chance of retaining an A List player they produce unless that player has some warts either known or unknown. So unconventional tactics are the only strategy left.

 

 

So what you are saying is they are rebuilding, not tanking..... Stearns is not putting a roster together in order to not compete or avoid winning baseball games in order to get higher draft pick and larger signing pool.... That is tanking....

 

Tanking is the 76ers who intentionally constructed a roster year after year to lose as many games as humanly possible and trade off any player who starts to show promise. Lakers are not tanking, they are rebuilding and just bad. When Bucks were terrible a few years ago, they were not tanking, they just were not good.... at all. On paper they should have been competitive and fell pretty short. They did nothing to intentionally lose.

 

DS took over a team and is creating a roster that fits what he wants. He is bringing in guys he feels are undervalued and have a chance to perform. He is making trades to improve outlook for sustain success in the future. That is not tanking.....Tanking is purely going out there with the intentions of losing as many games as humanly possible. I honestly don't think DS cares if the Brewers win 68 games or if they some how won 82 games. He is not GM'ing this team to tank for draft picks & signing pool. That is not his goal.

 

Tanking is intentionally losing or putting your team in a position with no opportunity to be competitive in order to receive higher draft pick or signing pool cash.

 

Rebuilding is restructuring your system and roster in order to build a new model for success with new personal, vision, goals, and methods to achieve success for now to the future.

 

To me, Brewers are in absolutely zero way tanking.

[Boomer5]

I will make you a deal; I will stop using the term tanking if you folks stop acting like the MLB team is improved.

 

I'm not sure anyone is saying the MLB team is improved over last year. I see a lot of people saying the 2016 team might have a better record than the 2015 team which certainly is possible considering Lohse was terrible, Garza was terrible and can't be any worse this year, Ramirez was terrible, Lucroy and Scooter were crap for 1/2 a year, and Segura was crap for a whole year. Last year was such a disaster for so many players. If the new guys can play to even the bottom of their expectations the 2016 record shouldn't be any worse than 2015.

 

Lets remember, this is not a one year 2015 fluke. The team was actually worse the 2nd half of 2014, so its 18 months of some really bad baseball. That hard to blame on some bad luck.

 

Lohse was terrible for sure. Anderson is an upgrade.

Segura is terrible, Villars projects to be terrible, in fact, I would bet he projects as the worst starting defensive SS in the game.

Ramirez was terrible, Hill projects to be terrible.

Luc will be traded, his replacements are terrible.

Scooter is Scooter and has no real impact one way or the other.

Garza was terrible and is terrible at a year older.

 

Going on the fangraphs depth chart, only catcher projects as a plus defense, and Luc will be traded. The rest that project to start are negative value guys on D.

 

Now for the guys your left off from 2015 to 2016:

 

Lind was good, Carter is terrible

Davis was the leagues best power hitter the last 1/3 of the season and he is gone.

Braun, our lone run producer (read that statement again please), is recovering from back surgery.

Parra, our first half MVP is gone.

Gomez is gone.

KRod is gone and his replacement Smith is on the block. Jeffries doesn't seen to have a closers make up but you never know.

 

So lets look at this more closely after all the moves, 2015 to 2016:

 

C: Worse assuming Luc trade

1B: Worse

2B: Same

SS: Same though differently, worse D, better O

3B: Same to Worse as i dont see Hill/Cecchini replacing ARam even with his relatively poor season.

LF: Better assuming Braun is moved here and he plays 140 games

CF: Worse

RF: Worse

 

Rotation: Better due to development of the young guys and Anderson over Lohse

Bullpen: Worse due to losing KRod, causing the domino effect.

 

It is very statistically likely this team will be worse than last year unless you think Nelson, Wily, and Jungmann are on the cusp of being the 90's Braves part II.

[MrTPlush]

I think it only seems like tanking because David Stearns is cleaning house. It is clear to me Stearns is going through the team and trading players he doesn't like or he doesn't think will be on the next Brewers contender. It also doesn't seem like he isn't interested in waiting around either.

 

I am just not really sure the goal is tanking because past this year the team should already be on the upswing. Hader, Lopez, Arcia, and Phillips are all Top 100 prospects that will likely play large roles on the 2017 team. We will still have respectable arms in the rotation and we have a steadily amount of good BP arms too.

 

So to me I don't think it is tanking...just David Stearns cleaning house for the new wave of Brewers. I really don't think the amount of possible losses means much when he makes his moves.

[Ennder]

Trading players is not tanking. Tanking is when your existing players lose on purpose for the draft pick. It is more of a NBA and NFL thing than MLB.

 

This years team could win more than last but it won't be a 'better' team than that one was. Wins are made up of more than just talent.

[MrTPlush]

Trading players is not tanking. Tanking is when your existing players lose on purpose for the draft pick. It is more of a NBA and NFL thing than MLB.

 

This years team could win more than last but it won't be a 'better' team than that one was. Wins are made up of more than just talent.

 

I think trading away good players with the draft pick as your main goal can be considered tanking too. If Stearns took a weaker deal now for Davis just to hopefully lose more games that is tanking in my mind.

 

Don't think he did that, but someone can believe that if they so choose.

[brewerfan82]

I will make you a deal; I will stop using the term tanking if you folks stop acting like the MLB team is improved.

 

Deal! I haven't read anyone that thinks the team is improved. I've only read people defending that losing as many games as possible isn't the main goal and that, while possible, it's not guaranteed they will actually lose 100 games (just like I wouldn't guarantee a team that looks good on paper will win the division or go to the World Series, there's just too much variance from talent to results to make a claim like that).