Revisiting Greinke/Sabathia trades

[MVP2110]

Knowing what we know now would you guys still make those deals and in the future would you guys want to make those type of moves in similar situations or would you rather hold onto our young guys for a longer possible window of contention.

 

Me personally, I am happy with how those moves turned out but unless we have a real shot at a world series I would not make similiar moves in the future. Curious how others feel

[dlk9s]

Haven't we talked about this in basically every thread for the past few years?

 

That and Jeff Suppan.

[DHonks]

Of course I would have. Getting to the playoffs was awesome! Nearly 20 years of sucking. We don't make the playoffs either year without them

[pacopete4]

King Kong on the mound pounding his chest after finishing off a complete game against the Cubs is an everlasting moment I'll have of that beast of a man. What an awesome sight that was.

[MrTPlush]

Haven't we talked about this in basically every thread for the past few years?

 

That and Jeff Suppan.

 

This 1000x

 

Thread should locked to save us all.

[1992casey]

If someone's interested in discussing a topic, it's relevant. If you're not interested, there's no need to read or respond. This is the kind of thing where opinions can change over time, so what might get said now might be different than what would have been said earlier.

 

Having said this, if someone knows of a recent thread (i.e. a topic started in the last six months or so) that's dedicated to these trades (rather than a thread that started off as a different topic), feel free to provide a link. A moderator can do a merge.

[djoctagone]

forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=63&t=31794

[502 to Right]

Giving up Matt LaPorta for Sabathia was a big mistake. He's was going to be the Prince Fielder replacement and is a sure fire All-Star. Quality GM's don't trade prospects like this for rentals. You just don't.

 

Thankfully we have Mat Gamel to fall back on.

[3and2Fastball]

Haven't we talked about this in basically every thread for the past few years?

 

That and Jeff Suppan.

 

And Yuni B!!!

 

And Kotsay in CF in the playoffs

[docduany]

I'd do it all over again. I had never witnessed Brewer playoff baseball in my life (too young to know what was up in 1982). With CC and Ben we had a 1-2 punch capable of winning the whole darn thing. The next time we were a Mark Kotsayless CF (not all on him, but it sounds better) away from a WS appearance. I know those moves led to us being in the dumps noe, but I don't have regrets.

[davego]

I'm still upset about Gorman for Manning and Waits in '83!

[Bikeage77]

This is a pretty good read from Yahoo Sports:

 

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/2/1/10838728/trade-retrospective-zack-greinke-royals-lorenzo-cain-alcides-escobar-brewers

 

At the time I was excited out of my mind. I'm happy for Kansas City's success, and while it eventually worked out in KC's favor, if it was 2010 again I'd have no problem with Melvin making that trade again.

[MilwaukeesBest]

At the time I was excited out of my mind. I'm happy for Kansas City's success, and while it eventually worked out in KC's favor, if it was 2010 again I'd have no problem with Melvin making that trade again.

 

That's my standpoint too. It would sting a little more if we made this deal with the Yankees or Red Sox and they were the perennial power, but to see KC do it and have sustained success in a small market is somewhat satisfying to me at least.

[bork]

It would have been less of an issue now, if they hadn't had so many bad drafts at the same time that they were trading prospects. If you keep the talent coming in, you can make these kinds of trades when the time is right and not kill the minor league system.

[Bikeage77]

That's a great point Bork. I don't think many people look at that aspect of it.

[1992casey]

I hadn't thought of that either until someone pointed it out a few days ago. If I can find the post, I'll link to it.

 

But the reality is that the Brewers didn't trade away a lot of prospects to get these players. The problem was that after the trades, the cupboard ended up being bare.

[Ennder]

Not a big fan of hindsight views of trades because way too many variables that come into play to just simplify it this much.

 

Nelson Cruz took years after he was traded to be productive, he was waived at one point. He got busted for steroids and he only ever really hit at home in big hitters parks. How on earth do you evaluate the final product here? Looking at WAR and nothing else doesn't really tell a compelling story here as to how much he was worth at the day of trade.

 

If the Browns release Manziel tomorrow, it scares him straight and he refocuses himself down the line and actually becomes a viable QB, I don't think the Browns somehow were wrong. They did the right thing and then things outside of their control took over.

 

Both of these trades put us in a position to field World Series potential teams so hard to ever say they were failures.

[davego]

Both trades gave the "crew pieces of what constructed at least the 2nd-best team in the NL each year. I'm ok with that.

[rickh150]

Still do both deals today....

 

What I take from the Greinke deal is that it was designed for 2012 too. Our line-up was about all there (minus Prince, but Ramirez had a great season), and Axford AND K-Rod were back again to finish games. All five starting pitchers were back, as well. What's soooo sad is that we couldn't finish a game to save our life. We still almost backed our way in to the playoffs down the stretch after trading off Greinke, ridding ourselves of Marcum, and bringing up young starters. What were we, like 1.5 games out of the playoffs in September (wasn't BA going to shave his head if the Brewers closed the gap to 1 game?)? If Axford Or K-Rod OR anybody else could have consistently closed out games that year, we're easily in the playoffs again. If I remember right, our offense scored more runs that year than 2011.

 

The Greinke deal was about two seasons, not just one.

[dlk9s]

I know there are lots of people that hate the Greinke trade and feel that the Royals far and away "won" it. I mean, sure, I guess they may have, as they have used the pieces to put together a championship team, but the bottom line was that both teams got what they wanted out of the trade. The Brewers wanted the short-term boost, which they got. Two games away from a WS and like rick said above, they were setup for the second year, too, but it didn't work out. The Royals wanted the long-term gains, which they got.

 

And realistically, the trade wasn't as lopsided as some think it was. Jeffress didn't do anything and ended up back with the Brewers eventually (and now doing well). Escobar, for all the hype he's been given, is basically an all-field, no-hit SS. That's fine, too, as he is a very good fielder and that's the most important trait for a SS. Let's not forget, though, that his OPS+ with the Royals is 77. That's bad.

 

Odorizzi has been good, certainly, but hasn't done all that much yet. Looks like he has a nice future, though. His biggest value for the Royals was in the trade they swung, but they also had to part with Wil Meyers.

 

Cain was obviously the biggest loss for the Brewers, one of the few correct calls I have made when it comes to prospects (I don't follow the minors). I knew he was going to be really good and was sad to see him go, but you have to give something up to get something. We gave up a guy who turned out to be MVP-caliber a few years down the road and got a top-five pitcher in return.

 

I think the trade was fine. If the Brewers had won just a handful more games in 2011, everybody would be over the moon about the trade. Hell, the Royals luckboxed their way to the WS two years ago. I appreciate the article linked above and I enjoy in-depth statistical analysis, but I think it over-analyzed things. Both teams accomplished what they wanted with the trade.

[MrTPlush]

Obviously if one could go back you probably wouldn't do either of these trades. We didn't win a World Series so it was a failure so to speak. Sadly the world doesn't work like that and we can't just redo moves.

 

The way I look at it is their success compared to other similar moves. I don't think people realize the amount of teams try to do the same thing and don't even make the playoffs. Angels traded for Greinke and missed the playoffs. The Padres tried to make a bunch of big time trade moves and they flopped on epic levels. In 2008 CC Sabathia carried the team to the playoffs and in 2011 lead a pitching staff that helped the team go from 77 wins to 96 wins. They did their job.

 

The other thing everyone assumes is that these players would be as great as they are now if the were still in Milwaukee. I don't think it is that simple. Maybe Brantley never breaks out under a Brewers coaching staff. A coaching staff has a huge impact on a young player trying to break out. Would Jake Odorizzi even look that impressive at Miller Park? Tropicana is pretty pitcher friendly.

 

I would be hard pressed to think in the 2012-2015 timeframe if we kept them we would have had a 96win team. That team would have had to rely heavily on what was already in place and through free agency. Our farm system would still have been a joke after they graduated so good luck trading for a Greinke type guy a few years later.

 

In the end I just don't see the guaranteed successes if we kept them, but I do see two of the best teams in Brewers history by trading them.

[FVBrewerFan]

One thing I hear all the time is how these trades decimated the farm system. To this day I hear it all the time from the local sports media talking heads. Yes, losing Cain, Odorizzi, etc. hurt. But all the bad drafts is what killed the farm system.

 

Frederickson, Arnett, Kentail Davis, Heckathorn, Bradley, Covey... all1st round picks that never developed. And that's just the 1st round! I understand every organization will have misses, guys get injured, etc. But that gap after the Hardy, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, Braun, Yo, etc. years was brutal.

[1992casey]

But all the bad drafts is what killed the farm system.

 

Add in that the team rarely if ever traded veterans for prospects. There are years where the team could have sold off certain vets at the deadline and didn't. And during the off season, even contenders can trade to restock the farm.

 

Also, the team wasn't very good at accumulating compensation picks. A lot of good teams did that, and they did it to the point that it was considered one of the flaws of the old system. The Brewers were pretty good at giving up comp picks, though.