I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here

[Boomer5]

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system. Heck, the Brewers probably won't get a prospect as good as Arcia out of this year's or next year's draft either. Certainly an early draft pick helps, but there have been plenty of teams that have gone a long time with early draft pick after early draft pick and never amounted to much of anything. The pre-Huntington Pirates for example.

 

I think there's an argument to be made that if you have talented scouting and farm directors, you'll succeed long term regardless of where you draft in any given year.

 

That said, Stearns has picked a direction. It might be tough to watch the MLB team for the next few years, but it's a perfectly logical direction. It doesn't mean that every move will work out, or needs to work out, but it's a clear direction.

 

It's true about the Cardinals or other farm systems being able to succeed regardless of where they pick. It's easy to say just make better picks, which I think the Brewers are doing the last few years, but it's a slow build helped greatly by the Astros heist.

 

However, the quickest way to improve the farm system to best in the game status is with trading off assists for real prospects and of course the first pick and more importantly the pool money. That's the reason Stearns is doing what he is doing.

[reillymcshane]

The Cardinals have simply been smart. We've talked about this before. They draft decent. They make astute trades. They know when to let veterans walk. They sign the occasional free agent when needed. They extend guys as needed. They don't get weighed down by bad contracts.

 

This is nothing secret. It's just doing all these things rather well. It doesn't mean they are perfect. They have bad trades and bad draft picks. But they have kept a steady stream of talent onto their team - a steady stream that includes everything from stars to role players.

 

It's just been a smart organization.

[homer]

Cardinals have had a top 5-10 farm system since 2011 (per Baseball Prospectus). They've been a developmental monster for awhile now.

[CheezWizHed]

It's just been a smart organization.

 

[sarcasm]TROLL!! Kick him out![/sarcasm]

 

But unfortunately true...

[Boomer5]

The Cardinals have simply been smart. We've talked about this before. They draft decent. They make astute trades. They know when to let veterans walk. They sign the occasional free agent when needed. They extend guys as needed. They don't get weighed down by bad contracts.

 

This is nothing secret. It's just doing all these things rather well. It doesn't mean they are perfect. They have bad trades and bad draft picks. But they have kept a steady stream of talent onto their team - a steady stream that includes everything from stars to role players.

 

It's just been a smart organization.

 

Absolutely. They do seem to get it when it comes to investing in player development and not over thinking the right draft picks and trades. They dont panic when it comes to losing an icon if the price is a horrible contract. Off the field I love what they do.

 

On the field, their behavior is less than smart and I will keep it at that.

[danzig6767]

The Cardinals have simply been smart. We've talked about this before. They draft decent. They make astute trades. They know when to let veterans walk. They sign the occasional free agent when needed. They extend guys as needed. They don't get weighed down by bad contracts.

 

This is nothing secret. It's just doing all these things rather well. It doesn't mean they are perfect. They have bad trades and bad draft picks. But they have kept a steady stream of talent onto their team - a steady stream that includes everything from stars to role players.

 

It's just been a smart organization.

This is very true, but they also caught a massive break when the Angels jumped in and trumped the Cardinals i believe 8-9 year 190 million dollar offer to Pujols by an extra 50-60 million. That alone allows them to use all of the money elsewhere in both the present and going forward on better options for 20 plus million a year. Plus, there is no DH in the NL to give Pujols days to weeks off and still keep his bat in the lineup.

[danzig6767]

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system. Heck, the Brewers probably won't get a prospect as good as Arcia out of this year's or next year's draft either. Certainly an early draft pick helps, but there have been plenty of teams that have gone a long time with early draft pick after early draft pick and never amounted to much of anything. The pre-Huntington Pirates for example.

 

I think there's an argument to be made that if you have talented scouting and farm directors, you'll succeed long term regardless of where you draft in any given year.

 

That said, Stearns has picked a direction. It might be tough to watch the MLB team for the next few years, but it's a perfectly logical direction. It doesn't mean that every move will work out, or needs to work out, but it's a clear direction.

Another factor IMO is that this is the best time for the Brewers to rebuild given the current strength of the NL Central.

 

The Cubs should be a 90-100 win team with reasonable health. The Cardinals likely will be really good and the Pirates in contention for playoff berth. So there isn't that we play in what looks like a weak division window that can makes some teams think, maybe we can grab a playoff spot aided by playing in a weaker division, even if our team isn't upper tier.

 

So hopefully if what Stearns is doing works out and in say two years the Brewers have a solid chance to win around 90 games or more, the division won't be as strong overall as it currently seems to be.

[monty57]

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system.

 

That's likely because they never gutted their farm system to have a strong MLB team. Years of neglecting the farm (trading from the farm, but never trading to add to the farm, focus drafts on getting high floor/low ceiling guys who could get to the majors, etc) will naturally lead a team to a position where they will need to rebuild.

 

The Cardinals seem to focus on both putting a good major league team out there, and keeping a strong farm. Hopefully, that is the long term plan for the Brewers under Stearns.

[sveumrules]

If you compare where the system is at now to where it was at for the last rebuild when Melvin took over coming into 2003 I think we are in a much better position now. When Doug came on we had five BA top 100 guys with Brad Nelson, Prince, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson & Hart with guys like Hardy & Parra lurking just outside. There was an impending Richie Sexson trade! We ended up picking top five the next three seasons yielding Weeks, Mark Rogers (Yo 2nd round) & Braun.

 

Compare that to now where we have pretty much four consensus top 100 guys in Arcia, Maverick, Lopez & Clark plus fringe 100 guys like Hader, Nottingham, Lara & Diaz with enough depth behind them to be considered a top 5ish farm system. There is an impending Lucroy trade probably. We have a top 5 pick (& more importantly spending pool) this year & likely next. We've spent internationally & look to be doing more in the future. The organization has made great strides in developing pitching in the last 10 years.

 

I'm optimistic this rebuild will yield more than a wild card berth & NL Central Championship.

[jerichoholicninja]

If you compare where the system is at now to where it was at for the last rebuild when Melvin took over coming into 2003 I think we are in a much better position now. When Doug came on we had five BA top 100 guys with Brad Nelson, Prince, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson & Hart with guys like Hardy & Parra lurking just outside. There was an impending Richie Sexson trade! We ended up picking top five the next three seasons yielding Weeks, Mark Rogers (Yo 2nd round) & Braun.

 

Compare that to now where we have pretty much four consensus top 100 guys in Arcia, Maverick, Lopez & Clark plus fringe 100 guys like Hader, Nottingham, Lara & Diaz with enough depth behind them to be considered a top 5ish farm system. There is an impending Lucroy trade probably. We have a top 5 pick (& more importantly spending pool) this year & likely next. We've spent internationally & look to be doing more in the future. The organization has made great strides in developing pitching in the last 10 years.

 

I'm optimistic this rebuild will yield more than a wild card berth & NL Central Championship.

 

Wow. The fact that they were top 100 guys doesn't really reassure me about our current top 100 guys.

[adambr2]

If you compare where the system is at now to where it was at for the last rebuild when Melvin took over coming into 2003 I think we are in a much better position now. When Doug came on we had five BA top 100 guys with Brad Nelson, Prince, Mike Jones, Ben Hendrickson & Hart with guys like Hardy & Parra lurking just outside. There was an impending Richie Sexson trade! We ended up picking top five the next three seasons yielding Weeks, Mark Rogers (Yo 2nd round) & Braun.

 

Compare that to now where we have pretty much four consensus top 100 guys in Arcia, Maverick, Lopez & Clark plus fringe 100 guys like Hader, Nottingham, Lara & Diaz with enough depth behind them to be considered a top 5ish farm system. There is an impending Lucroy trade probably. We have a top 5 pick (& more importantly spending pool) this year & likely next. We've spent internationally & look to be doing more in the future. The organization has made great strides in developing pitching in the last 10 years.

 

I'm optimistic this rebuild will yield more than a wild card berth & NL Central Championship.

 

Wow. The fact that they were top 100 guys doesn't really reassure me about our current top 100 guys.

 

Here are all our top 100 guys since Melvin was hired,, some were top 100 in multiple years, so I'm only going to list their top respective rating:

 

2003: Brad Nelson (23), Mike Jones (56), Ben Hendrickson (90), Corey Hart (91)

2004: Rickie Weeks (5), Prince Fielder (10), JJ Hardy (19), Manny Parra (69)

2005: Jose Capellan (25)

2006: Mark Rogers (44)

2007: Yovani Gallardo (16), Ryan Braun (26), Will Inman (91)

2008: Matt Laporta (23)

2009: Mat Gamel (34), Jeremy Jeffress (100)

2010: Alcides Escobar (12), Brett Lawrie (59)

2011: -

2012: Wily Peralta (56), Taylor Jungmann (70), Jed Bradley (71)

2013: -

2014: Jimmy Nelson (96)

2015: Tyrone Taylor (93)

2016: Orlando Arcia (8), Trent Clark (49), Brett Phillips (57), Jorge Lopez (59)

 

That's 27 guys in the top 100 since the Melvin era began. If I rank these on the basis of:

 

A - Elite, top level MLB player

B - High echelon during prime, not elite

C - Average MLB player

D - Lower level MLB player

F - Bust

I - Incomplete (too early to say)

 

I count 2 A's, 3 B's, 1 C, 3 D's, 4 F's, and I gave 9 I's starting with Peralta. The rest were used as trade bait at some point. So the good news is most of our top 100s made it in the bigs. The bad news is only 5 out of 13 became better than average big leaguers. I had Braun and Prince as my A's, Yo, Hardy, and Hart as my B's, and Weeks as my C, and I do believe every one of those guys was an All-Star at some point, so that's good.

 

However, keep in mind that our system has produced some really good big leaguers who were never top 100 guys. Lucroy especially comes to mind, and also guys like Davis. So while 100 is a nice round number, having depth in 100-200 range is nice too, a lot of good players still come from that range.

[jerichoholicninja]

However, keep in mind that our system has produced some really good big leaguers who were never top 100 guys. Lucroy especially comes to mind, and also guys like Davis. So while 100 is a nice round number, having depth in 100-200 range is nice too, a lot of good players still come from that range.

 

My comment was mostly in jest but more about the rankings and the people who do the rankings than the organization or the players themselves. Was there anyone on this board, other than his dad, that expected much out of Ben Hendrickson?

[reillymcshane]

However, keep in mind that our system has produced some really good big leaguers who were never top 100 guys. Lucroy especially comes to mind, and also guys like Davis. So while 100 is a nice round number, having depth in 100-200 range is nice too, a lot of good players still come from that range.

 

My comment was mostly in jest but more about the rankings and the people who do the rankings than the organization or the players themselves. Was there anyone on this board, other than his dad, that expected much out of Ben Hendrickson?

Hendrickson had a sweet curveball that could totally dominate a game when he was on. Too bad that wasn't very often. He had some stretches in the minors where he was pretty awesome, but the control just never materialized.

[adambr2]

I thought I remember hopes being pretty high for Hendrickson when he was finally called up.

 

IIRC he was completely shelled in his MLB debut and just never recovered.

[Ennder]

However, keep in mind that our system has produced some really good big leaguers who were never top 100 guys. Lucroy especially comes to mind, and also guys like Davis. So while 100 is a nice round number, having depth in 100-200 range is nice too, a lot of good players still come from that range.

 

My comment was mostly in jest but more about the rankings and the people who do the rankings than the organization or the players themselves. Was there anyone on this board, other than his dad, that expected much out of Ben Hendrickson?

 

People who judge a player by his ERA and not by anything else pretty much. Nobody who believed in advanced stats thought Hendrickson would ever produce a full season in the majors. He was never a real prospect.

[And That]

Nobody who believed in advanced stats thought Hendrickson would ever produce a full season in the majors. He was never a real prospect.

Flatly untrue.

[LouisEly]

Wow. The fact that they were top 100 guys doesn't really reassure me about our current top 100 guys.

They were top 100 guys kind of by default, because generally speaking the 2000, 2001, and 2003 drafts were some of the weakest drafts years in the modern era. The talent pool was shallower back then. Over the last five years more multi-sport stars have been taking the sure money and choosing baseball out of HS instead of football, and the concussion/CTE issues in football have likely pushed more talent into baseball. The top 100 now is better than the top 100 back then. Also, teams are smarter about developing pitchers now (not having HS kids throw 140 heavy innings their first full year of pro ball), so you aren't seeing as many pitching prospects flame out.

 

Funny, for as much as the Brewers were criticized for making Krynzel the 11th overall pick in 2000, he actually has the 11th highest career WAR (according to BR) of every player picked in the first round of the 2000 draft. Yeah, they missed on Utley and Wainwright, but Krynzel has a higher career WAR than eight of the 10 players drafted ahead of him. Only five players from the first round that year have a career WAR >10, one of them just barely.

[adambr2]

Wow. The fact that they were top 100 guys doesn't really reassure me about our current top 100 guys.

They were top 100 guys kind of by default, because generally speaking the 2000, 2001, and 2003 drafts were some of the weakest drafts years in the modern era. The talent pool was shallower back then. Over the last five years more multi-sport stars have been taking the sure money and choosing baseball out of HS instead of football, and the concussion/CTE issues in football have likely pushed more talent into baseball. The top 100 now is better than the top 100 back then. Also, teams are smarter about developing pitchers now (not having HS kids throw 140 heavy innings their first full year of pro ball), so you aren't seeing as many pitching prospects flame out.

 

Funny, for as much as the Brewers were criticized for making Krynzel the 11th overall pick in 2000, he actually has the 11th highest career WAR (according to BR) of every player picked in the first round of the 2000 draft. Yeah, they missed on Utley and Wainwright, but Krynzel has a higher career WAR than eight of the 10 players drafted ahead of him. Only five players from the first round that year have a career WAR >10, one of them just barely.

 

I was stunned to see Brad Nelson aa high as #23. I don't remember a ton about him, but I don't recall him generating a ton of pre-MLB hype. Don't know if he's a guy who would have even cracked the top 100 on a list today.

[JohnBriggs12]

I thought I remember hopes being pretty high for Hendrickson when he was finally called up.

 

IIRC he was completely shelled in his MLB debut and just never recovered.

 

He had a game against the Cubs (not his debut) where he shut them out for 5 innings, then instead of getting him out of there and letting him feel good about himself, Yost left him in there for the 6th and he failed to get an out before 3 runs scored. He never had any confidence after that. He was overwhelmed. That happens to some guys when they reach the majors. But he was very good in AAA in 2004.