I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here

[adambr2]

San Francisco won World Series titles in '14 and '12 with some pretty bad defenses. St Louis did the same in '11.

 

I'm not saying defense is overrated, but out of pitching, hitting, and defense, its probably the least important Its the easiest deficiency to make up for if your pitching and hitting are good enough.

[RobDeer 45]

I don't think anyone that's on the current MLB roster is any sort of window in to how Stearns constructs a team. I think all he's trying to do at the major league level is field a team of trading chips. I think we should be looking at the types of players he's getting in the minors and that will give us our best idea of the tools he's looking for.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'm struggling to think of another team in recent history that went with hitting as a 1st priority, with little regard for defense and only a secondary regard for pitching, that won a World Series. It just plain doesn't work

 

Cubs used their top picks on bats when they tanked and traded the Shark to get Addison Russell. They haven't won a World Series but they did win 97 last year and got huge boost from likes of Schwarber, Bryant and Fowler, none of whom is known for defense.

[FVBrewerFan]

A better barometer on how Stearns feels about defense would be the players who WILL be a part of the future. Santiago, Arcia and Phillips. That's not to say they will be plus at every position on the diamond, but that almost never happens anymore.

[And That]

A better barometer on how Stearns feels about defense would be the players who WILL be a part of the future.

Exactly. Arcia and Phillips are both plus plus defenders at two of the most important defensive positions. Santana, while not at the level of those two, is a solid defender in the corner OF with a plus arm. Just going down the list, Tyrone Taylor is a plus defender, Trent Clark is solid average defender (at least) in the corners, Monte Harrison has the tools to be a plus plus defender in center, Rivera is an excellent infielder with an unbelievable arm, Reed and Liriano are both solid (at least) defenders in the corners, though fringey in center, Diaz and Betancourt are best suited for 2B only, but both have the tools to be plus defenders there.

 

Lara, Gatewood, Orimoloye are all raw defensively and need work so they are TBD. Coulter, Roache, and Cecchini probably max out their defensive capability playing first, but aren't complete hack jobs where they are now either.

 

Just to mention some catchers, Houle and Leal could both be solid to plus defenders. Both have good to great arms.

 

All in all, the Brewers have good defensive talent on the farm. I am not too worried about it going forward.

[MadScientist]

One other thing, over the last 10 years defenses have changed to position substantially for each batter. This makes up for a lot of defensive deficiencies. Players don't need as much range or can make up for taking bad routes. Sure top notch defenders helps, but the number of plays where it makes a difference is fairly small. Unless the guy is a total butcher, you can get by with him.

[RobertR]

Stearns wouldn't have brought in Broxton if he placed no value on defense.

 

But, the defense is one of the reasons that I think the odds of the Brewers being surprisingly good instead of expectedly very bad are slight. And I think the idea that because the team was defensively bad at the peak of their success cycle means it's not cause for at least some concern when they're in a rebuild mode and trying to develop young pitchers is not really supportable. Besides, I remember how ugly that NLCS series was. Can anyone really say that's watchable over 162 games with a lot less offense and pitching talent? Yuni B, at SS and 1B, and Kotsay in CF are among the prime exhibits against the previous regime.

 

Ultimately, I agree that bats are probably more flippable than gloves. Especially since the AL has a DH. And we shouldn't be overly worried at this point about Stearns' overall rebuilding plan, as Middlebrooks, Carter, Liriano/Santana, and Villar are not the future at 3B, 1B, CF, and SS. We'll judge that when we see what he actually is planning.

 

But, in the meantime, it could get ugly out there. Perhaps so ugly that they'll have to change course in personnel this season.

[Roderick]

But I think it's fair to point out that those guys cumulatively make for a bad defense. It's worth considering if that gets in the way of long-term goals like developing pitching. I don't know the answer to that but it's always good to be aware of potential unintended consequences.

 

I would think it would be a stressful situation for a pitcher if he knows he can only give up a run or two or the game is over if we have no offense to speak of also. So horse a piece.

[MadScientist]

But, in the meantime, it could get ugly out there. Perhaps so ugly that they'll have to change course in personnel this season.

You make it sound like the Brewers are putting an infield of Braun, Yuni, Weeks, and Fransisco, and an outfield form the 62 Mets. I just don't see it as all that bad. A downgrade from last year with Gomez in center and Segura at short, but nothing to play Bad News Bears music for every time they take the field.

 

Maybe it's enough to cost the Brewers 1 run every 5-10 games, but that will not be a level that would cause pitchers to freak out(*).

 

(*) I make no guarantees about Garza not freaking out, but he is not a young pitcher they are developing.

[CheezWizHed]

BF.net fans vision of Stearns first meeting with the organization:

 

Scout: "This guy here is dead!"

 

Stearns: "Cross him off then!"

 

There is zero chance that Stearns moves us to Miami! But it is too bad that he doesn't have better legs...

[QuevedosTongue]

A downgrade from last year with Gomez in center and Segura at short, but nothing to play Bad News Bears music for every time they take the field.

 

I'm picturing fast moving video with Yakety Sax playing, a la Benny Hill.

[MadScientist]

A downgrade from last year with Gomez in center and Segura at short, but nothing to play Bad News Bears music for every time they take the field.

 

I'm picturing fast moving video with Yakety Sax playing, a la Benny Hill.

I can see it now. Lucroy fields a bunt and not trusting anyone else to catch the ball, proceeds to chase the batter all the way around the bases, while he somehow tears the skirt off a ball girl who joins the chase and repeatedly whacks him on the head with her handbag.

[logan82]

Gomez was only with us half a year and really didn't play all that well while he was. Segura was also not very good. Their production could be matched or exceeded this year with the players we have.

[JohnBriggs12]

Even with a rebuild in full swing, the Brewers could still field a team with an outside chance without giving up any current player or prospect.

 

Won't happen but here's 4 short term FA possibles that turn them into a darkhorse contender (if all were signed) tomorrow in 2016. Sign Austin Jackson, David Freese, Mat Latos and Justin Morneau. All together, those guys would likely cost no more than $25 million, less depending on how many get moved in July. None require surrendering a draft pick. All could have some value at trade deadline.

[dlk9s]

A downgrade from last year with Gomez in center and Segura at short, but nothing to play Bad News Bears music for every time they take the field.

 

I'm picturing fast moving video with Yakety Sax playing, a la Benny Hill.

I can see it now. Lucroy fields a bunt and not trusting anyone else to catch the ball, proceeds to chase the batter all the way around the bases, while he somehow tears the skirt off a ball girl who joins the chase and repeatedly whacks him on the head with her handbag.

http://i.imgur.com/DNBjW.gif

[DuWayne Steurer]

Even with a rebuild in full swing, the Brewers could still field a team with an outside chance without giving up any current player or prospect.

 

Won't happen but here's 4 short term FA possibles that turn them into a darkhorse contender (if all were signed) tomorrow in 2016. Sign Austin Jackson, David Freese, Mat Latos and Justin Morneau. All together, those guys would likely cost no more than $25 million, less depending on how many get moved in July. None require surrendering a draft pick. All could have some value at trade deadline.

 

 

Morneau outside of Coors is very likely to be outproduced by Chris Carter. The last 3 seasons before he became a Rockie, he failed to put up an .800 OPS or even a 2.0 WAR.

 

Freese would be better than any 3rd base candidate on the roster, but probably expensive. If he could be had on a one year deal, I wouldn't be opposed.

 

Mat Latos is a known head case and a club house problem. I know some guys like guys that are "fiery club house presences" but he's not a fiery leader, he's a head case and a problem. He's a good bounce back candidate if he's cheap, but the team doesn't need a club house cancer guy. If he bounces back to pre-2015 level production, he'd probably be the default staff ace, but I just hope if they take that plunge, it comes cheap.

 

I don't dislike Austin Jackson, but he hasn't been good for a while, and I don't think he's really any better than what we have. I certainly don't think he makes the team a contender more than see Niewenhuis or any of the other on-the-roster guys we have.

 

Sure on Latos and Freese (with reservations). No thanks on Morneau and Jackson.

[MrTPlush]

A downgrade from last year with Gomez in center and Segura at short, but nothing to play Bad News Bears music for every time they take the field.

 

I'm picturing fast moving video with Yakety Sax playing, a la Benny Hill.

I can see it now. Lucroy fields a bunt and not trusting anyone else to catch the ball, proceeds to chase the batter all the way around the bases, while he somehow tears the skirt off a ball girl who joins the chase and repeatedly whacks him on the head with her handbag.

 

...what did I just read...

[brewcrewdue80]

Wow. Only read 1st page. How long for a .500season then a playoff season. Here's what I'll say. The team has acquired depth. Say for a cpl positions. This year is a 70win look of season. Go to 2017. What have these younger talents become? Plus what did we acquire in trade? Maybe '17 there is a chance at .500. I'd expect a better chance in '18. And from there you never know. We need a TOR SP to arrive to think playoffs.

I will say that the way Stearns is going, sustaining a .500 team looks to be coming 2020 through that decade. And not so much a 2-3yr window. The key will be if/when+how many TOR Starters we grow in the minors. Kodi,Ponce,Hader?, Lopez, that 5th pick we have coming? It's that number of potentials where you assume #3s/4s at worst result in .500 potential. Now get their bests of the talent and we're talking playoffs. This youth movement is 19/20/21 you keep that churning, when you hit on that aged prospect you're staring at a decade of position filling like Arcia is to be.

[1992casey]

The Brewers could completely pass by .500 like the Cubs and Astros did. Or they could have a fluke .500 season at any point yet not really be ready to contend. Answering "how long?" at this point is next to impossible, and that's why Stearns refuses to do it.

[jerichoholicninja]

What teams have fully commit to a gut and rebuild recently? The Pirates, Cubs, and Astros, and Royals to a lesser extent. All four teams made the playoffs last year and the Royals and Pirates have made it multiple times. Will it work for the Brewers? I think so but there's no guarantee. However, anyone who thinks it isn't a good idea clearly is not paying attention to how successful baseball organizations are built. The fact that some seem to favor the same model that has kept the Brewers and teams like the Rockies, DBacks, Mariners, Indians, and Reds in a constant state of mediocrity for a decade boggles my mind.

[monty57]

he fact that some seem to favor the same model that has kept the Brewers and teams like the Rockies, DBacks, Mariners, Indians, and Reds in a constant state of mediocrity for a decade boggles my mind.

 

I think people remember how bad the franchise was before the recent decade or so, and there is fear that as we lose the known and venture into the unknown we could once again have to suffer like we did in the late 90's and early 2000's. We've been a bad franchise. We have zero World Series rings and few playoff appearances in over forty years of existence, so any degree of success makes some want to hang onto what feels good.

 

Professional sports is a young person's arena, and as romanticized as baseball may be, GMs can't get attached to players on an emotional level. This may be good for fans, who may buy tickets to see the names they know, but a GM who does this will get left behind. I would far rather have good players in their 20's, letting the big money guys fight over who can give the biggest 9-figure deal to have the player through his 30's. I have no problem trading away good players when they have a year or two left to stockpile more young talent, letting the receiving team worry about losing the player to free agency.

 

But I don't get emotional about the players. I believe that as long as we keep a strong farm, the good player we trade away will be replaced by other good players from the farm who we will "control" for six years at a low price. We can't compete long-term by signing big contracts, so we have to keep a stream of good pre-arby and arby players on the MLB roster if we want to have any chance of long-term success. There will always be down years, but if you keep a strong farm and have the willingness to trade MLB "chips" in the down years, you shouldn't have to suffer through extended down periods.

[RobertR]

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system. Heck, the Brewers probably won't get a prospect as good as Arcia out of this year's or next year's draft either. Certainly an early draft pick helps, but there have been plenty of teams that have gone a long time with early draft pick after early draft pick and never amounted to much of anything. The pre-Huntington Pirates for example.

 

I think there's an argument to be made that if you have talented scouting and farm directors, you'll succeed long term regardless of where you draft in any given year.

 

That said, Stearns has picked a direction. It might be tough to watch the MLB team for the next few years, but it's a perfectly logical direction. It doesn't mean that every move will work out, or needs to work out, but it's a clear direction.

[logan82]

For fairness, I'd note that the Cardinals didn't have to gut their team to have a strong farm system. Heck, the Brewers probably won't get a prospect as good as Arcia out of this year's or next year's draft either. Certainly an early draft pick helps, but there have been plenty of teams that have gone a long time with early draft pick after early draft pick and never amounted to much of anything. The pre-Huntington Pirates for example.

True, but if your MLB team isn't good you can get an infusion of young talent to use a a good building block. After that you maintain it. We didn't do well maintaining our talent and part of that was trading away young players for MLB players. To be successful you have to not trade away those young guys very often and you have to do a really good job identifying talent. We did neither.

[CheezWizHed]

I think there's an argument to be made that if you have talented scouting and farm directors, you'll succeed long term regardless of where you draft in any given year.

 

Of course, it helps if you have access to other team's scouting files, too...

[FVBrewerFan]

Without digging to deep, it SEEMS to me the Cardinals haven't done some sort of amazing job developing position players. They have done a very good job developing pitching over the years.

 

But what they've done very well is understanding when to move on and trade or not re-sign veteran players. They made the right call in keeping Molina over the years, but moved on from Pujols, Edmunds, Suppan, Lohse off the top of my head.

 

That has allowed them to spend money one a free agent or two, getting better players to fill needs they have and at a lower price than re-signing Pujols to a massive contract or overpaying mediocre pitchers.

 

Which is exactly what the Brewers need to do. Develop their own controllable pitching staff, some of the position players, then when the time is right spend some money on a 3B and/or catcher (for example.)