I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here

[adambr2]

The key to enduring a rebuild as a fan and seeing the good in it is finding enjoyment in things other than the MLB team winning. No, winning the World Series is not a realistic goal this year. That doesn't mean the season can't be fun. A World Series is still the end goal, it's just something that they're now looking at on a longer timeline, which I firmly believe in.

 

Personally, I find this part of baseball to be very enjoyable. Guys like Braun and Prince didn't show up one day as stars, they were developed through our farm and became stars. I find that to be a very fun journey to watch, in seeing who our next stars will be.

 

If you're near Appleton I'd highly recommend trying to make it to some Timberrattlers games. That team should be pretty good, and there's a few guys there who have a shot at being Brewer stars one day. Not to mention the Game Day experience is going to be a whole lot cheaper than going to MP.

 

But even if you'd rather stick to MP anyway, there's a lot of things to watch for this season. We get to see whether guys like Nelson, Jungmann, Santana and Broxton can take a big step in their development. There's guys on this roster right now that could turn out to be really good players. We might get to see debuts for Arcia and Phillips. That part is a lot of fun. Even in '05-'07 when we just weren't quite there yet, remember how fun it was to watch guys like Hardy, Weeks, Fielder, and Braun come up and mash? It's been a long time since we've felt that kind of excitement about a Brewers prospect coming up the bigs, and it's going to be happening a lot again in the coming years.

 

I'm excited to see what the season will bring.

[NievesNoNO]

......

Nelson has ace-type stuff and has dominated both the Cubs (2.61 ERA in 20 IP) and the Pirates (2.48 ERA in 36 IP). He can be a 1 or at worst a 2 starter with a bit more consistency.

 

Peralta's shown he can be a very solid #3 starter. He did it in 2014. Last year he struggles with little run support and injuries and some battles with his own inconsistencies, but again the stuff is there.

 

Jungmann's numbers as a rookie were really quite good. He tailed off some as can be expected, but there's every reason to expect him to be a solid starting pitcher in 2016.

 

Anderson's put together two solid, if unspectacular seasons in Arizona. With 48 major league starts under his belt, he's a pretty known commodity at this point as a 4th or at worst top of the line 5th starter.

 

Davies showed in his starts in September that he can get big league hitters out and that he's fearless. He goes into 2016 on a 13 inning scoreless streak which includes handcuffing a Cub lineup that was rolling on 2 hits over 6 innings. Who knows what his ceiling is?

 

..............

Every baseball season has value, or should have value, and even if contending is not in the cards, winning as much as possible is the goal of players, managers and hopefully, the front office. It will be a lot more fun to see them exceed expectations and play reasonably well than it will be for them to did a huge hole like last year and take the focus of fans off the field an on to the trade market by May 1st.

 

I like the staff assessment. Nelson, if he can gain some consistency, has Garrett Richards type potential. I get frustrated with Peralta but the raw stuff is still there. For some reason I feel like maybe he's a guy that the organization is kind of hindering a bit with a philosophy of throwing everything low in the zone.. or maybe that's just who he is. Either way he's a small physical or mental adjustment away from being really good. Maybe the switch turns on ala Jake Arrieta. Jungmann, Davies, and Anderson all profile kind of similar but are solid back end options.

 

I agree with not throwing seasons away. I do think this year the value of the season won't really be measured in wins and losses. I'm really intrigued for the time being with what might shake out with the roster. If Cecchini turns out to be even league average over at 3rd that would go a long way in the process. I think the Padres made a mistake with Liriano so I'm looking forward to seeing his potential development. As it stands right now a Luc, Braun,Davis middle of the lineup is still respectable and something to work with at least as the season opens up.

[Ennder]

I believe some portion of Peralta, Nelson and Jungmann will be traded as part of the rebuild. I don't know how many or which ones but I just think they won't all be part of the next playoff caliber Brewer team.

[DHonks]

This year's team should win about 70 games. Im a huge believer in the pitching staff. The rotation is very deep. The pan has lots of talented hard-throwers. Throw in we have 2 perennial silver slugger candidates. I'm content with where we are

[adambr2]

Peralta is absolutely a guy I would look to unload if he rebounds and puts up a sub 3.00 ERA or so in the first half. I think he probably carries more value as a trade chip than he would in his 30s coming out of a rebuild. Anderson, same.

 

I think we still need some evaluation on what we have in Jungmann and Nelson, but I think it's premature to assume either profiles as a future #1/#2 for us.

[FVBrewerFan]

Peralta is absolutely a guy I would look to unload if he rebounds and puts up a sub 3.00 ERA or so in the first half. I think he probably carries more value as a trade chip than he would in his 30s coming out of a rebuild. Anderson, same.

 

I think we still need some evaluation on what we have in Jungmann and Nelson, but I think it's premature to assume either profiles as a future #1/#2 for us.

 

I agree. In fact, I think it's premature to assume Jungmann can even be part of the permanent rotation. Peralta becomes a free agent sooner, but he may be cheaper to sign long term than Nelson. All depends what they do this year, but at the end of the season it would make sense to get one or the other locked up long term. If Jungmann proves me wrong, great, one more arm to throw in the mix for at least the next 3-4 years.

[SoCalBrewfan]

To me the jury is very much out on the Stearns era of former prospect cast offs and 19 year olds, but assuming we are drafting well the next 3 drafts the rebuilding plan will surely work.

 

Well, given how long he's been in the job, I think Stearns would accept that the jury should still be out. There's no certainty in any rebuild; there always seem to be teams chronically rebuilding.

 

Baseball is such that getting into the playoffs by a fingernail and being hot at the right time can get you a championship. However, given the state of our division, and the talent on the roster, I don't see that we were in a good place to pull that off. Even had we kept Lind, Gomez, and Fiers, and added whatever free agents we might have afforded, does anyone see a clear path to the 2016 playoffs in a division with the Cubs, Cards, and Pirates? (And a league with the Dodgers, Giants, Mets, and Nats?) Last year you could reasonably hope for that; if a few things broke right for the Brewers and broke wrong for our rivals, it's not impossible that we could have been a playoff team in '15. As it turns out everything that could go wrong last year did, but I think we all knew that the rebuild was coming sooner or later. I'm personally grateful that the poor start last year provided clarity, because the pieces we added last year are very exciting, and the system is dramatically improved.

[Boomer5]

To me the jury is very much out on the Stearns era of former prospect cast offs and 19 year olds, but assuming we are drafting well the next 3 drafts the rebuilding plan will surely work.

 

On the young kids, all the teenagers, you are absolutely right. How can anyone know what they'll be in five years at this point? On the, "cast-offs", I'm not sure I agree. I guess it depends on who you mean, and what you're expectations are.

 

I love the approach of grabbing a bunch of high-upside kids, because teams will part with more talent, if it's less proven. Yes, there's risk in that for the Brewers, but the chance to really hit it big on a kid is much greater if you take the high skill set teen over the completely ordinary AA player. I'd roll those dice.

 

On the MLB guys, Aaron Hill was clearly a salary dump by AZ, and for most of the others, I think one good season from any of them would be a win, they're just here to fill the roster while the team is at the bottom. I think Rymer Liriano has a chance to, "make it", I think SD screwed that one up.

 

We have discussed that plenty, but so far Stearn's trades prior to Hill freed up cash but didn't really move the needle on the talent front. The essential purchase of Diaz for $6.5M was a better use of our assets, IMHO.

 

The cast off were cast offs for a reason. In this salary era, no one gives - and doesn't even try and trade for much- up 4-6 years of control on a potentially elite player who is one year removed from prospect status unless they have a reason. Could they be wrong? Sure, but the reality is these players are probably a whole lot closer to their former team's opinion than the zenith that many fans will see when they see a "name" prospect hit the roster.

 

Maybe one or two will be productive, who knows. It still looks more like filling up a very bad MLB roster with lottery tickets that the casual fan has heard of than acquiring guys who will fill a key role based on a whole lot of metrics.

 

Im going to be a lot more interested in the 2016-2019 drafts which I think is the ONLY goal of Stearns moves so far.

[RobertR]

My biggest concern going into spring training is that the defense could be downright brutal. Catcher might be the only position that ends up a defensive plus.

 

That kind of baseball can be very tough to watch, whether you're a casual or dedicated fan. Plus I think it can make it tougher to develop pitching if you're making them work harder and teaching them they can't rely on the defense. There’s potential for this to be a very high stress year for all involved.

[SoCalBrewfan]

The cast off were cast offs for a reason.

 

I think there are plenty of duds in those cast offs. Middlebrooks does not excite me in the slightest, for example. But the risk is minimal and it doesn't take many hits on these reclamation projects though to come out ahead. If just one of Cecchini, Villar, Liriano turns into a league average player for a few years, that's huge, and each of those guys gives at least some cause for optimism. As with past Brewers like Pods or Danny Kolb, investing the playing time now can lead to an asset with significant value on the field and then eventually in trade. Determining who deserves that playing time in 2016 is going to be the tricky part...

[Baldkin]

My biggest concern going into spring training is that the defense could be downright brutal. Catcher might be the only position that ends up a defensive plus.

 

That kind of baseball can be very tough to watch, whether you're a casual or dedicated fan. Plus I think it can make it tougher to develop pitching if you're making them work harder and teaching them they can't rely on the defense. There’s potential for this to be a very high stress year for all involved.

 

I feel the same way. I almost wouldn't mind them getting a no-bat all-glove guy at SS and CF and giving our pitching staff a chance.

[Ennder]

Middlebrooks is actually the guy who intrigues me most. Nothing in his deeper stats suggests he is getting worse than his productive year, in fact he has improved in a few areas like K%. His career has been derailed by injuries and his last season looks somewhat injured by a park that was just awful for him. These are the types of players that actually sometimes do have miraculous comeback years.

 

The glut of weak hitting MI and 4th OF just seem like filler guys we got because you have to get enough AB to keep your prospects in the minors. They are well rounded players so it won't be a complete disaster but i also don't see much future value coming out of any of them.

[Boomer5]

 

The glut of weak hitting MI and 4th OF just seem like filler guys we got because you have to get enough AB to keep your prospects in the minors. .

 

I agree 100%. These are just guys who are on the roster so the Brewers can field a team without starting the clock on the prospects that will be here when the next Brewer team is competitive.

[Outlander]

I think Robert hit it right on the head, defense is just going to be brutal. Average to below average everywhere so even if people have high hopes for the pitching staff I think the defense will let them down. Really just hoping one of Liriano, Cecchini, Villar, Walsh or Flores to turns into an above average player. Something to complement the future prospects that will be on the team soon.

[Bombers]

The crapshoot of prospect ranking ... lets take a look at this year and compare it to 2007.

 

Here is a current 2016 Prospect ranking and where the Brewers are ranked

6 Orlando Arcia

32 Brett Phillips

57 Jorge Lopez

61 Josh Hader

83 Trent Clark

 

Here is a Feb 2007 Prospect Ranking and matching the # where a Brewer is ranked today

6 Camerin Maybin

32 Luke Hochevar

57 Humberto Sanchez

61 Erick Aybar

83 Michael Bowden

 

Here is that same Feb 2007 Prospect ranking and looking for one of the better prospects within 10 spots of where a current Brewers is ranked

7 Evan Longoria

26 Ryan Braun

60 Carlos Gomez

70 Jamie Garcia

80 Jeff Samardzija

 

As you can see, the prospect rankings are a complete crapshoot. So even if you get high draft picks and add normally to the system, there is no guarantee. That is why I am 100% on board with what Stearns is doing. Its like Ted Thompson, the more assets you acquire, the better probability you have on hitting on 1 and in baseball you can't trade draft picks. (except for the competitive balance picks) ... Just keep adding assets.

 

Sources:

2007 - http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html

2016 - http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects

[RobDeer 45]

Bombers - well said and good job doing some digging to back it up. It's definitely a numbers game. I think it's all about taking risks on young players at this time.

[RobertR]

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

[jerichoholicninja]

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

 

No. He's acquired plenty of prospects in Flores, the kids from Seattle, Supak, Liriano, Diaz, and Cecchini in addition to young controllable guys like Villar, Nieuwenhuis, Pinto, Carter, and Anderson. The only move he made that I would categorize as simply "activity" would be the Krod trade.

[pacopete4]

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

 

No. He's acquired plenty of prospects in Flores, the kids from Seattle, Supak, Liriano, Diaz, and Cecchini in addition to young controllable guys like Villar, Nieuwenhuis, Pinto, Carter, and Anderson. The only move he made that I would categorize as simply "activity" would be the Krod trade.

 

Even that trade got us a young, controllable player with some upside. Ya just never know.

[RobertR]

None of those prospects are close to sure things, with the possible exception of Diaz. Especially those kids from Seattle. It's actually probable that the vast majority of this off season activity is going to amount to nothing. Yeah the rebuild is necessary and Stearns is committed to it, but Melvin's last flurry of trades and the upcoming draft may end up being more important than anything done this off season.

[reillymcshane]

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

What is a targeted approach?

[jerichoholicninja]

None of those prospects are close to sure things, with the possible exception of Diaz. Especially those kids from Seattle. It's actually probable that the vast majority of this off season activity is going to amount to nothing. Yeah the rebuild is necessary and Stearns is committed to it, but Melvin's last flurry of trades and the upcoming draft may end up being more important than anything done this off season.

 

Santana, Houser, Phillips, and Davies are just as likely to be flops as anyone else.

[MadScientist]

None of those prospects are close to sure things, with the possible exception of Diaz. Especially those kids from Seattle. It's actually probable that the vast majority of this off season activity is going to amount to nothing. Yeah the rebuild is necessary and Stearns is committed to it, but Melvin's last flurry of trades and the upcoming draft may end up being more important than anything done this off season.

 

Santana, Houser, Phillips, and Davies are just as likely to be flops as anyone else.

Well 3 of those 4 were in Milwaukee by the end of last season, so they are not complete flops. The 4th Maverick. Getting more advanced prospects reduces risk, but to get high ceiling advanced prospects you have to trade higher quality pieces. It will be interesting to what the return Sterns gets for Lucroy, Davis, Peralta, etc. Those should be worth high ceiling, more advanced prospects.

[CheezWizHed]

Other than the Segura trade, it wouldn't surprise me if much of what Stearns did this off season is ultimately viewed as activity instead of progress. He's clearly relying on volume to find some diamonds in the rough but there's plenty of reason to doubt most individual moves. Is that any better than a more targeted aproach? We'll see.

What is a targeted approach?

 

I would think "spending more" to get a couple specific higher ranked players rather than a high volume of possible break-out players (i.e. shot gun).

[3and2Fastball]

Hindsight being 20/20, I sure am glad that the Wheeler/Flores trade for Gomez fell through. That was a horrendous trade for a rebuilding team as opposed to what we got from Houston (even having to add Fiers).

 

I'm thrilled with the moves that Stearns is making. The moves he makes in regards to Lucroy/Braun/K Davis are even more important. And they have to get the 2016/2017 drafts right. So far Stearns is doing great, in my opinion.