I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here

[bill hAll Star]

You've just given every pitcher's best-case scenario, though. Out of those 5 pitchers (you probably have a decent #2 and a bunch of #4/#5 starters not counting the youngest guys), one of them is going to probably get crushed (Jungmann is my bet) and one is probably going to get hurt. I'm not nearly as high on Jungmann or Peralta. Anderson is what he is - he'll be decent for a few years.

[pacopete4]

Rebuilding is only cool if there is success after it. If we rebuild this year, 2017 and some of 2018 and nothing comes of it, which very well could happen, then we will look back and really second guess a lot of things. I'm not saying we shouldn't rebuild but I think to the original posters thought is that a lot of people are just assuming that it will be all rosie come 2018 when it really might not be.

[bill hAll Star]

Rebuilding is only cool if there is success after it. If we rebuild this year, 2017 and some of 2018 and nothing comes of it, which very well could happen, then we will look back and really second guess a lot of things. I'm not saying we shouldn't rebuild but I think to the original posters thought is that a lot of people are just assuming that it will be all rosie come 2018 when it really might not be.

 

"I could better my life by going back to college, but why try? There's a greater than zero chance I may not get a job out of college. I'll just stick with my fast food job (not that there's anything wrong with that)."

[FVBrewerFan]

Nobody is assuming everything will be rosy in 2018. But I can guarantee it won't be rosy in 2018 if they didn't go into rebuild mode now.

[pacopete4]

Rebuilding is only cool if there is success after it. If we rebuild this year, 2017 and some of 2018 and nothing comes of it, which very well could happen, then we will look back and really second guess a lot of things. I'm not saying we shouldn't rebuild but I think to the original posters thought is that a lot of people are just assuming that it will be all rosie come 2018 when it really might not be.

 

"I could better my life by going back to college, but why try? There's a greater than zero chance I may not get a job out of college. I'll just stick with my fast food job (not that there's anything wrong with that)."

 

Meh, that doesn't really apply here. The Brewers could make FA signings and try their way in that regard to get back to the playoffs and contend. It could be done. Will it? No probably never but to say that the only way to ever win is by a big rebuild is not correct either.

[JohnBriggs12]

You've just given every pitcher's best-case scenario, though. Out of those 5 pitchers (you probably have a decent #2 and a bunch of #4/#5 starters not counting the youngest guys), one of them is going to probably get crushed (Jungmann is my bet) and one is probably going to get hurt. I'm not nearly as high on Jungmann or Peralta. Anderson is what he is - he'll be decent for a few years.

 

If I've given the best case scenario, you've just given the worst. Jake Arrietta could get hurt and the Cubs could go into a tailspin too. The difference between last year and this is if Jungmann is getting crushed, he'll be optioned out 6-7 starts in and replaced by Lopez or Pena, or Burgos or somebody (yes even Suter Clancy) who's likely showing something in the minors. Sooner or later they'll likely land on somebody who does the job. Last year when Lohse and Garza struggled, their contracts kept them in the rotation for almost the entire season. I didn't give each pitchers best case scenario either, just a relatively positive spin. Nelson's best case is he's a true ace. Peralta already has a 17 win season under his belt, his best could be as good or better. He's in his prime right now.

 

All I'm saying is the rotation is capable of preventing a historically bad season and making the team fairly competitive, if 73 or 74 wins can be considered competitive. Saying they are capable is not the same as saying they will either.

[pacopete4]

You've just given every pitcher's best-case scenario, though. Out of those 5 pitchers (you probably have a decent #2 and a bunch of #4/#5 starters not counting the youngest guys), one of them is going to probably get crushed (Jungmann is my bet) and one is probably going to get hurt. I'm not nearly as high on Jungmann or Peralta. Anderson is what he is - he'll be decent for a few years.

 

If I've given the best case scenario, you've just given the worst. Jake Arrietta could get hurt and the Cubs could go into a tailspin too. The difference between last year and this is if Jungmann is getting crushed, he'll be optioned out 6-7 starts in and replaced by Lopez or Pena, or Burgos or somebody (yes even Suter Clancy) who's likely showing something in the minors. Sooner or later they'll likely land on somebody who does the job. Last year when Lohse and Garza struggled, their contracts kept them in the rotation for almost the entire season. I didn't give each pitchers best case scenario either, just a relatively positive spin. Nelson's best case is he's a true ace. Peralta already has a 17 win season under his belt, his best could be as good or better. He's in his prime right now.

 

 

Don't waster your breath, bill hAll Star feels as though every Brewer player is the worst so no matter what you say to him, he will tell you that the Brewers will suck. It isn't worth it.

[Patrick425]

Nobody is assuming everything will be rosy in 2018. But I can guarantee it won't be rosy in 2018 if they didn't go into rebuild mode now.

 

^^^

I think this pretty much sums it all up.

[bill hAll Star]

You've just given every pitcher's best-case scenario, though. Out of those 5 pitchers (you probably have a decent #2 and a bunch of #4/#5 starters not counting the youngest guys), one of them is going to probably get crushed (Jungmann is my bet) and one is probably going to get hurt. I'm not nearly as high on Jungmann or Peralta. Anderson is what he is - he'll be decent for a few years.

 

If I've given the best case scenario, you've just given the worst. Jake Arrietta could get hurt and the Cubs could go into a tailspin too. The difference between last year and this is if Jungmann is getting crushed, he'll be optioned out 6-7 starts in and replaced by Lopez or Pena, or Burgos or somebody (yes even Suter Clancy) who's likely showing something in the minors. Sooner or later they'll likely land on somebody who does the job. Last year when Lohse and Garza struggled, their contracts kept them in the rotation for almost the entire season. I didn't give each pitchers best case scenario either, just a relatively positive spin. Nelson's best case is he's a true ace. Peralta already has a 17 win season under his belt, his best could be as good or better. He's in his prime right now.

 

 

Don't waster your breath, bill hAll Star feels as though every Brewer player is the worst so no matter what you say to him, he will tell you that the Brewers will suck. It isn't worth it.

 

Not true. I have very rosy outlooks for plenty of players.

 

Peralta: He's had a ~4.5 FIP his entire career and cannot get lefties out.

 

Jungmann: Was not a great pitcher most of the way through the minors. A guy with MLB stuff, but his early dominance was "first time around the league" luck. He'll be a nice pitcher to have in the majors, though.

 

Nelson: Good pitcher but probably slots closer to a #2.

 

Davies: Should be a solid #5 through his career with a chance to be a nice #3 like Estrada or Fiers.

 

Lopez: He'll be a good one...but probably not just yet.

 

I don't know why I'm even getting in this argument, but just because you've heard about guys like Jungmann a bunch from BA and Rock, there is a general consensus around own teams' fans that their prospects are going to be really good. I'm giving a level-headed analysis of these players.

 

I actually don't think it's a bad pitching staff if they all pitch to their norms. The problem is that injuries and the likes will happen and there are too many holes on the offense to keep the team afloat.

[bill hAll Star]

Rebuilding is only cool if there is success after it. If we rebuild this year, 2017 and some of 2018 and nothing comes of it, which very well could happen, then we will look back and really second guess a lot of things. I'm not saying we shouldn't rebuild but I think to the original posters thought is that a lot of people are just assuming that it will be all rosie come 2018 when it really might not be.

 

"I could better my life by going back to college, but why try? There's a greater than zero chance I may not get a job out of college. I'll just stick with my fast food job (not that there's anything wrong with that)."

 

Meh, that doesn't really apply here. The Brewers could make FA signings and try their way in that regard to get back to the playoffs and contend. It could be done. Will it? No probably never but to say that the only way to ever win is by a big rebuild is not correct either.

 

Before they traded away all of their vets, the Brewers weren't too far away from their assumed budget of a little over $100 million. Ever since 2011, they've been inching closer and closer to flooding out their minors system and are paying for their previous vets pushing towards the top of their budget.

 

They could have signed a few guys and had a chance to compete. Their problem is that they would have had to have had everything go right, no foreseeable minor league depth to help if there were injuries, and probably reside in the best division in baseball.

[Jenkins5]

Doesn't matter if it is 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 or so on. You bring enough great talent into your system, eventually it will pay off. It took Pirates and Royals awhile but if you just keep stock pilling and loading up, eventually you will find guys who will hit for you. Stearns and his staff I think are really good in this area. Not every prospect is going to work out but if you have enough high end guys, some of them will reward you at the MLB level....others will reward you in trades to get guys you need to compete. I think with the talent we are infusing, regardless of winning, we are a fun team to watch 2017-2019. Will hopefully be like 2005-2007 (When Hardy, Hart, Prince, Weeks, etc started coming). Watching players grow and develop and seeing the transition in level of play is super exciting.

 

Don't put time tables on it, believe in the process, & that Stearns and his excellent staff know what they are doing. Its not like the pre-DM era where the Brewers had no real plan in place to improve the franchise or minor league system.

 

Overall, if Arcia & Phillips are not playing like Domingo last season and just dominating....don't call them up just to call them up. Develop them and make sure they are ready. If we don't see Arcia or Phillips until August or September, that is complete fine for me.

[JohnBriggs12]

"A chance to compete" is all I ever ask of teams I follow. Some times things don't work out and you have bad seasons, after which you get higher draft picks and that's where you need to make smart choices. Minor league depth is just that, minor league depth. Any dunce can trade off productive major league talent and get any number of young minor league players who have upside and leave you with minor league depth. But a lot of guys who had upside in the minors never make it past AA. The trick is fielding a major league team every year that has a chance to compete without decimating the product for several years.

[MKE81]

It's extremely difficult to say WHEN especially given nobody has any idea what the roster will look like in 2018. If all goes to plan you're looking at Braun, Phillips, Santana, Arcia as guaranteed starters. Cecchini is a potential. Have no 1b or C and nobody knows who will be at 2b (Rivera, Walsh, Villar, external?). SP looking at Nelson, Lopez, Hader, Davies? but will definitely be different than this year. Bullpen has been strong recently and is still trending that way. With the amount of moves Stearns has already made and will continue to make within the next 1-2 months and throughout this season and next it's impossible to predict. 2017 will definitely be fun to watch even if they're not a 500 team. They have the talent to be so even being very young. Mix in some veterans via FA (ideally one top of the rotation guy for sure and 1-2 position players) and you very well could be looking at a potential sneak into the playoffs in 2018

[bill hAll Star]

"A chance to compete" is all I ever ask of teams I follow. Some times things don't work out and you have bad seasons, after which you get higher draft picks and that's where you need to make smart choices. Minor league depth is just that, minor league depth. Any dunce can trade off productive major league talent and get any number of young minor league players who have upside and leave you with minor league depth. But a lot of guys who had upside in the minors never make it past AA. The trick is fielding a major league team every year that has a chance to compete without decimating the product for several years.

 

You're right...we haven't had any minor league depth issues in the past few years. When you've got Overbay/Yuni at 1B, why would you need anyone behind them?

[FVBrewerFan]

"A chance to compete" is all I ever ask of teams I follow. Some times things don't work out and you have bad seasons, after which you get higher draft picks and that's where you need to make smart choices. Minor league depth is just that, minor league depth. Any dunce can trade off productive major league talent and get any number of young minor league players who have upside and leave you with minor league depth. But a lot of guys who had upside in the minors never make it past AA. The trick is fielding a major league team every year that has a chance to compete without decimating the product for several years.

 

The Milwaukee Bucks say "hi." That has been their formula for what 20-25 years? Be competitive, .500ish and hope something good happens one season.

 

We all know not all minor league players make it to MLB, even some of the best of them. That's what depth is for. If you have 4 high ceiling SS, chances are 1 of them will make it.

 

Any dunce can put together a .500 team every year as well. You do it by signing Suppan/Wolf/Lohse/Garzas of the world to build a decent rotation. Add a couple bats, and you can be "competitive." Until you lose those guys, can't find capable replacements, and then notice your farm system is decimated.

 

I'm not saying you're WRONG, it's just what you want as a fan. You don't want to endure bad seasons for a chance at being a legit contender later on. I get it, I just don't agree with it.

[superfly]

As of right now, if we were in any other division that didn't have 3 97-100 win quality teams in it, I'd say we actually won't be too bad at all this year.

 

Really

1B Carter

2B Gennett

SS Villar

3B Hill

C Lucroy

LF Davis

CF Santana

RF Braun

 

we have a lot of depth and competition going on this spring. We still have a strong Bullpen and our starting rotation is not bad if guys like Garza & Peralta bounce back, Nelson & Jungmann continue to develop, and Anderson is consistent. Villar as potential to be a very good player. It now sounds like CC will play Santana in CF and corners (find ways to get him on the field. Carter may not hit for great average but his 35+ HRs and his ability to still get on base by walking as much as he does helps. Gennett will go back to playing the way he does. He had bad first couple months and was back to his .300 hitting ways rest of the season.

 

This team is in no way a hopeless 100 loss team people like to claim. Last season from July on, they were nearly a .500 team. The 1st 2 month last season, literally every Brewer outside of Lind was injured or brutally bad. June they started to get healthy and perform better, by July they we what they are. Our roster is really no different than the .500 club we finished season up with.

 

We will have to agree to disagree, but that is a seriously bad infield likely the worst in the game. The OF you put together I like, but Stearns does not. It features Davis who is likely to be traded, Santana who wont be in CF. We have discussed Braun to death, but I would not be surprised to see him moved. Luc surely will be traded.

 

The Brewers were carried by Davis' incomprehensible 20 HRs in Aug and Sep and were still under 500 during that time frame.

 

No, this team will not be contending for anything positive.

 

 

Hill is a younger Ramirez. Net neutral. Net positive if he regains somewhat close to his previous form

 

Villar will be no worse, and likely better than Segura. Net positive

 

2nd base will be a good platoon. Net positive

 

1st base is a downgrade from Lind to Carter, but more power. In between Net downgrade and Net Neutral

 

One of Liriano and Santana will be adequate at CF. Net downgrade from Gomez, Net upgrade from anybody else

 

Peralta and Nelson have another offseason. Net positive

 

Garza cannot possibly be any worse than last year, and likely will revert back towards true form a bit. Positive

 

A good amount of the changes made this offseason actually are not downgrades per se, I think this team will be a bit better than you think. Playoffs? Hell no. .500? Most likely not. 75ish games? Perhaps

[Oxy]

Rebuilding is only cool if there is success after it. If we rebuild this year, 2017 and some of 2018 and nothing comes of it, which very well could happen, then we will look back and really second guess a lot of things. I'm not saying we shouldn't rebuild but I think to the original posters thought is that a lot of people are just assuming that it will be all rosie come 2018 when it really might not be.

 

Yep. As I directly asked, I am also interested in the timeline, which many have laid out nicely. Thank you.

[monty57]

Every baseball season has value, or should have value

 

I think the value to take out of this season will be to get a better picture as to what we have for the future.

 

-We have youth in the rotation, and 2016 can give us a chance to see what we have in guys like Davies and Jungmann.

 

-We picked up some former top prospects from the "scrap heap," and giving them everyday playing time can potentially get us 5-6 years of a good player for nothing. This is why I don't want to see Hill playing 3B when he has no future with the Brewers while someone like Cecchini may. Ditto CF, where I would rather see what we have in a player like Broxton rather than picking up a "proven" journeyman.

 

-Our minor leagues should be fun to follow. We have more talent there than we've had in a long time, and I enjoy seeing how the kids progress.

 

Overall, I don't think the value of the 2016 team will be in maximizing wins (I also don't think we should purposefully maximize losses for draft position). Rather, it's a year to "throw some stuff at the wall" while letting the young guys mature. It's the early stages of what will hopefully be a successful rebuild. It takes patience, but the important thing is that if you are going to do it, that you do what you think will be in the best interest of the future of the franchise, and not what you think will appease the fans and the media short-term.

[logan82]

It will suck if things don't work out but we were going to be bad anyway. Might as well get a little worse and hope to get a lot better. It's a lot more fun than hanging around .500 every year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Looking forward to attending the Manatees Opening Day, and then as many T Rats games as I can.

[3and2Fastball]

What I like is that most of the players they are bringing in are plus gloves with plus athleticism. i.e. the type of players who, even if they don't live up to their hitting potential (and not all of them will) can help a team win games as role players. You want speed on the bases, great gloves in the field, and platoon advantages when you can find them. Those little things add up and can help produce Wins

[abrasam16]

I think the offseason has gone about as well as can be reasonably expected. I agree with previous comments about the lack of "studs" in the system. But there are 3 big chances to add an All-Star caliber talent. Pick 5 in the '16 draft, Lucroy trade, and what is hopefully a top 5 pick in '17. Will be very important to nail at least 2 of those decisions, but Stearns has done well this offseason to make the entire system incredibly deep. Off the top of my head, the Brewers system has around 40 players that can reasonably expected to contribute to the big league club at some point in time. Obviously not all will hit, but there is just a ton of talent.

[sheetskout]

I think the offseason has gone about as well as can be reasonably expected.

 

People should be ecstatic right now. We went from a bottom-five system to a top-five system in a year. Frankly, that's amazing to me. This could have gone way worse.

[splitterpfj]

To me the jury is very much out on the Stearns era of former prospect cast offs and 19 year olds, but assuming we are drafting well the next 3 drafts the rebuilding plan will surely work.

 

On the young kids, all the teenagers, you are absolutely right. How can anyone know what they'll be in five years at this point? On the, "cast-offs", I'm not sure I agree. I guess it depends on who you mean, and what you're expectations are.

 

I love the approach of grabbing a bunch of high-upside kids, because teams will part with more talent, if it's less proven. Yes, there's risk in that for the Brewers, but the chance to really hit it big on a kid is much greater if you take the high skill set teen over the completely ordinary AA player. I'd roll those dice.

 

On the MLB guys, Aaron Hill was clearly a salary dump by AZ, and for most of the others, I think one good season from any of them would be a win, they're just here to fill the roster while the team is at the bottom. I think Rymer Liriano has a chance to, "make it", I think SD screwed that one up.

[homer]

"A chance to compete" is all I ever ask of teams I follow. Some times things don't work out and you have bad seasons, after which you get higher draft picks and that's where you need to make smart choices. Minor league depth is just that, minor league depth. Any dunce can trade off productive major league talent and get any number of young minor league players who have upside and leave you with minor league depth. But a lot of guys who had upside in the minors never make it past AA. The trick is fielding a major league team every year that has a chance to compete without decimating the product for several years.

 

 

So you like the White Sox model? They sign and/or trade for pricey free agents or trade prospects for established vets all the time. Hasn't really done much good since '05.