I find the love for the rebuilding process curious around here

[Oxy]

All I want to know is what year this team should be .500 and what year this team should make the playoffs.

 

We are going to be bad this year. We will very likely be bad next year. What year can I expect we won't be bad? How many years of below .500 baseball do I have to endure before I declare the rebuild a failure?

[StearnsFTW]

Personally, I'll be disappointed if the Brewers aren't at least showing signs of contending in 2018. Playoffs? Maybe, maybe not. But hopefully .500+ with real hopes of contention in 2019.

[Roderick]

All I want to know is what year this team should be .500 and what year this team should make the playoffs.

 

We are going to be bad this year. We will very likely be bad next year. What year can I expect we won't be bad? How many years of below .500 baseball do I have to endure before I declare the rebuild a failure?

 

My expectation would be .500 the 2018 season and competing for playoffs thereafter. You have two years to figure out what players are good enough for a playoff team, and then you start the expectations. Figure 2018 for a .500 season, and then you start spending the money to retain your guys and fill that one or two holes on the roster.

[Boomer5]

Well in fairness to the Brewers, they didnt really begin the rebuild process until July 2015. They are showing no signs of picking up anyone on the major league level that will be elite and no one above High A that projects to be elite since Stearns took over.

 

A lot will depend on the Davis and Luc trades followed by the Braun and Wily trades. if we continue to pick up 18 and 19 year olds, you can't expect the Brewers to be playoff bound for 3-4 years minimum. I am happy with that because that means they will be picking very high and by 2019 we will have a farm system that is the envy of the league.

[Point Beer Is Best]

How many years of below .500 baseball do I have to endure before I declare the rebuild a failure?

 

Based on the thread title and this statement, it kind of sounds like you already have.

[Ennder]

Hopefully they don't rush it just to appease the common fan. When Melvin did his rebuild we desperately needed a winning team but he cut some corners to make it happen that hurt the team long term. I totally get why he did it and I even support the decision but we've had recent success so now there isn't as much desperation. Error on the side of leaving players in the minors too long, not rushing them up. Error on the side of filling holes with home grown prospects and not trading prospects for hole fillers.

 

I'd rather they take 4 or 5 years and build a solid organization from top to bottom than to rush it just to get a 2-3 year window of winning teams.

[JohnBriggs12]

All I want to know is what year this team should be .500 and what year this team should make the playoffs.

 

We are going to be bad this year. We will very likely be bad next year. What year can I expect we won't be bad? How many years of below .500 baseball do I have to endure before I declare the rebuild a failure?

 

There's a path to .500 this year (or at least as far as the deadline) if they found an actual major league CF among the many flawed candidates or still went out an acquired one. They would need some things to go right but the acquisition of Hill and Anderson enhances that possibility somewhat. Hill would need to bounce back closer to his career averages. If he does, that solves the 3B question. It mostly depends on if Nelson can take another step forward, Peralta returns to 2014 form and they get better production from the 4th and 5th rotations spots than they did in 2015. Cardinals figure to take a big step back. Reds are a worse mess than Brewers. Last year's horrible record is mostly on Lohse and Garza being the two worst starters in the NL. Lohse is gone and hopefully the young arms will allow them to eat Garza's deal.

[Outlander]

With the way Stearns is approaching the rebuild I think it could be a while before it can be considered a failure. Even if Mark A gets impatient and fires Stearns, he has acquired so many low level prospects that a true determination may not be made for another decade. However, the way I see it is there is a nice wave of prospects coming up that could lead to winning and there is another wave further behind that could sustain the winning or hopefully push them over the top to a World Series. My guess is they won't have a winning record until at least 2019, especially with the division they are in right now.

[paul253]

By the end of this year we should begin seeing guys who are a part of the future. Arcia obviously. Santana. Phillips. Probably Lopez. Maybe Hader. Maybe Taylor. Maybe Reed. Really this year should be the worst of it. We just have to hope guys in AA and below (Coulter, Harrison, Clark, Gatewood, Medeiros, Lara, etc.) progress the way we need them to. But this shouldn't be a situation where it takes four seasons to see progress, especially if we get a good haul for Lucroy.

[Ennder]

By the end of this year we should begin seeing guys who are a part of the future. Arcia obviously. Santana. Phillips. Probably Lopez. Maybe Hader. Maybe Taylor. Maybe Reed. Really this year should be the worst of it. We just have to hope guys in AA and below (Coulter, Harrison, Clark, Gatewood, Medeiros, Lara, etc.) progress the way we need them to. But this shouldn't be a situation where it takes four seasons to see progress, especially if we get a good haul for Lucroy.

 

This is what I'm hoping they don't do unless these guys are mostly September callups. Bringing up the next wave of guys starts the clock going. Keep them in the minors and eat this year, get them a cup of coffee in September and start bringing them up mid 2017 at the earliest.

 

Weeks, Hardy and Fielder were all called up at least a half a year too early just to get fans in the seats, try not to repeat that choice.

[FVBrewerFan]

As long as it takes. Impossible to know when they will be a good team again, much less a serious contender. This is the year they're tearing it down. 2017 they start building it back up again (At the MLB level.) More than anything, it depends how good/ how soon the rotation will be.

[homer]

This year is the worst of it in terms of signing middling vets to fill gaps just to field a team. I think next year you start to see the long term prospects come up and then the year after that they start to take off. 2018 is a good projection for a competitive team but 2019 is more likely.

 

Kind a funny that one year ago today the Brewers had pretty much no hope of a competitive team for the foreseeable future.

[RobDeer 45]

I'm on the side of not rushing this as well. I'd rather shoot for 2019. Take our time bringing up prospects. Try to bring them up as close as possible so that they are together for a longer period of time. I like seeing that we have a couple groups of players developing. That way they can plug holes and give a boost to what is hopefully a good team, a few years later.

 

I really hope that Mark gives Sterns a long leash with this. I hope the fans are patient. I think this could be really special if he does a good job of executing his plan. We are a small market team and I truly believe this is the only way we can succeed. I always look at what the Twins did before the recent slide. They had a great string of prospects and continued to fill their farm system by trading good players before they walked for more money. Their only fault was not ever really "going for it." That said, I think you have to treat your prospects like gold. I do think DM did cut some corners and I'm ok with that. I'm hoping this approach creates above average baseball, with chances to make the playoffs, for an extended period of time, and never has to fully reboot.

[Ennder]

A year ago today they were still in the playoff hunt according to most of the projection systems though likely to fall short because of a strong division. Last year was just a disaster year.

 

Things happen in the game. The team has had a playoff plausible roster every season since 2005 until this year. Just some years go better than others.

[superfly]

this team isnt that awful as it sits now, if we had a legit ace we'd be talking 500 or maybe even wild card.

 

segura - addition by subtraction

hill - addition, be it at 3rd base or platooning with gennett is a big +

walsh - addition...anything is better than elian herrera

middlebrooks - again anything is better than herrera

carter - id argue addition over some bum like maldonado playing 1st

lind - this one hurts

 

theres going to be a ton of growing pains for some (rymar liriano/santana/villar) but if they progress i could see 75ish wins. if nelson and peralta become some semblance of a 1/2 starter and garza reverts to what he really has been we may push 80.

 

if davis, braun, or lucroy get traded though i reserve the right to revise my statements.

[RobDeer 45]

I agree this team was competitive for several years, and I'm so thankful for that. Great years! Wouldn't you say the writing was on the wall though? I mean we couldn't have waited much longer to sell off our best players. Our farm system was so depleted, we could have never kept this up. We could have maybe made the playoffs a few more times but I just didn't see the talent in the system that could have made us a legit contender. I think it would have been a slow painful death and then we would have had to push out the time frame of being good (edit: not a given that we will be, but we have a good chance), several more years. We wouldn't have had the trade chips to reload the organization with prospects.

[JohnBriggs12]

A year ago today they were still in the playoff hunt according to most of the projection systems though likely to fall short because of a strong division. Last year was just a disaster year.

 

Things happen in the game. The team has had a playoff plausible roster every season since 2005 until this year. Just some years go better than others.

 

The thing that keeps coming back to me is that no matter how much energy and patience is put into a rebuild, the best that can ever be expected for this franchise that can't go after big money FA or hold on to it's stars beyond 6 years is to field a "a playoff plausible roster". Stearns has acquired talent that projects to be around in 4-5 years, at which point many on here will be contemplating what 2025 prospects they can get back for Arcia. Nelson will be gone by then as well and they'll be counting on young untested arms.

 

I'm fine with a "playoff plausible roster" every year. That's reality for a franchise like the Brewers. Duplicating what the Cubs did is fantasyland. They could have fielded one in 2016 but deliberately chose not to. Sorry but that irritates me. Now .500 gives Counsel a shot at manager of the year.

[1992casey]

Some here have argued that the team should have been selling off players all along… not necessarily an extreme selloff like we're seeing now, but enough to keep the pipeline going. That might have resulted in "off" seasons here and there, but it also might have negated the need for a full fledged rebuild.

[DuWayne Steurer]

It sounds like to the OP, .500 should be the goal. HOpefully OP will correct me if I'm wrong though.

 

Building a .500 team should never be the goal, building a sustainable model of contention should be the goal.

 

Rebuilding sucks. I don't think anyone "loves" rebuilding. I think a lot of people recognized that where we were (having a lot of overpriced, aging, poorly performing veterans) was not a good place. Rebuilding, and having a GM who was willing to jettison a lot of those pieces to turn over the roster, stock the farm system, and for the time being, bring in replaceable parts until the farm brings in the more long term guys is a step in the process. It is not the end goal. I think people are excited because we're not going out and extending the process of chasing 77 to 81 wins for the sake of doing it at the expense of building something better.

 

Building a .500 team as the end goal is how you end up with what the Bucks were doing for 20+ years. Aiming for the 8th seed (and usually failing to do even that.)

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

The thing that keeps coming back to me is that no matter how much energy and patience is put into a rebuild, the best that can ever be expected for this franchise that can't go after big money FA or hold on to it's stars beyond 6 years is to field a "a playoff plausible roster". Stearns has acquired talent that projects to be around in 4-5 years, at which point many on here will be contemplating what 2025 prospects they can get back for Arcia. Nelson will be gone by then as well and they'll be counting on young untested arms.

 

I'm fine with a "playoff plausible roster" every year. That's reality for a franchise like the Brewers. Duplicating what the Cubs did is fantasyland. They could have fielded one in 2016 but deliberately chose not to. Sorry but that irritates me. Now .500 gives Counsel a shot at manager of the year.

 

 

Unfortunately, this IS the reality for teams like the Brewers or the Rays. However, the Rays had a stretch of five 90 win seasons in six years. They have more good young talent coming up.

 

You have to be good, or even excellent at drafting. You have to be completely unflinchingly unafraid to trade away talent when it's at the end of it's 6 year team-controlled cycle, and get good young talent back in return. Talent in/talent out.

 

The Rays had Matt Garza at his peak. Instead of re-signing him to a big deal, they traded him to the Cubs for Chris Archer. When Chris Archer is close to big bucks, they'll probably flip him for young talent as well. To operate that way, you absolutely HAVE to be good at identifying that kind of talent, and not having the sentimental attachment to the players on your roster.

 

Is Stearns that kind of guy? We don't know yet. He appears to have NO trouble getting rid of guys, but then he has no attachment to any of the guys currently on the roster. Can he identify talent? We will find out.

[RobDeer 45]

 

The thing that keeps coming back to me is that no matter how much energy and patience is put into a rebuild, the best that can ever be expected for this franchise that can't go after big money FA or hold on to it's stars beyond 6 years is to field a "a playoff plausible roster". Stearns has acquired talent that projects to be around in 4-5 years, at which point many on here will be contemplating what 2025 prospects they can get back for Arcia. Nelson will be gone by then as well and they'll be counting on young untested arms.

 

I'm fine with a "playoff plausible roster" every year. That's reality for a franchise like the Brewers. Duplicating what the Cubs did is fantasyland. They could have fielded one in 2016 but deliberately chose not to. Sorry but that irritates me. Now .500 gives Counsel a shot at manager of the year.

 

 

Unfortunately, this IS the reality for teams like the Brewers or the Rays. However, the Rays had a stretch of five 90 win seasons in six years. They have more good young talent coming up.

 

You have to be good, or even excellent at drafting. You have to be completely unflinchingly unafraid to trade away talent when it's at the end of it's 6 year team-controlled cycle, and get good young talent back in return. Talent in/talent out.

 

The Rays had Matt Garza at his peak. Instead of re-signing him to a big deal, they traded him to the Cubs for Chris Archer. When Chris Archer is close to big bucks, they'll probably flip him for young talent as well. To operate that way, you absolutely HAVE to be good at identifying that kind of talent, and not having the sentimental attachment to the players on your roster.

 

Is Stearns that kind of guy? We don't know yet. He appears to have NO trouble getting rid of guys, but then he has no attachment to any of the guys currently on the roster. Can he identify talent? We will find out.

 

Well said! That's the way I feel and you did a better a job of saying it! Talent out, talent in is how we have to live. The Twins were so good at that and got caught in an impossible corner.....home town kid, Joe Mauer. I think that's what set them back several years. If he wasn't a home town kid, he would have been gone for some amazing prospects.

[Ennder]

Building a .500 team should never be the goal, building a sustainable model of contention should be the goal.

 

I disagree with this statement. There was nothing wrong with the Brewers shooting for a consistent .500 team considering where the team was when Melvin took over, how many losing seasons they had in a row, how mediocre the farm system was and how dejected the fan base was. That was why I said I hope that Stearns doesn't cut corners the way Melvin did. It made total sense for Melvin to try to get a winning team on the field as fast as possible, that isn't something Stearns needs to do. This isn't a desperate fan base in need of rebuilding/saving like Melvin had. Shooting for a .500 season and adding talent if you got off to a good start was totally viable though. Heck 2 of the 3 World Series that the Giants won recently were with .500 talent teams that just got hot late. Only one of those was a legit great team. That is why every other year they totally tank, it just isn't an amazing roster but when it goes right it happened to go really right for them.

 

There was no way you trade off pieces in 2012 coming off of a 96 win team. When we lost Braun in 2013 you could argue we should have started a rebuild. 2014 was the hot start so if the plan was to trade guys off at all star break the hot start neutered any chance at that. There hasn't really been a lot of good times to start even a mini rebuild until mid season last year. Melvin also got unlucky the Sabathia/Sheets season. What should have been two really nice supplemental picks lost because of who Sabathia signed with and Sheets getting hurt. He also lost plausible playoff seasons to Brauns injuries/suspension.

 

I would say going into last year the team definitely lacked any sort of depth so it was pretty obvious that barring an amazing start they were going to have to rebuild. Maybe it was a year or two too late but it is certainly debatable.

[JohnBriggs12]

I'd argue that Attanasio who now is preaching patience, reacted with utter impatience last year when the team got off to it's awful start on top of it's awful finish to 2016. Roenicke should never have been brought back after 2014. Hangover affects are real. A fresh start was needed but not a complete roster overhaul. Once Counsell took over the team played pretty decent baseball for a couple of months but were held back by the terrible performance of its two highest priced pitchers. That in itself should have been enough to end Melvin's tenure. So by July there was no hope, making the dealing of Gomez and Parra inevitable. But with the return the got for those players being close to major league ready, and Arcia being close to majors, the focus should have been on a quick 1-2 year retooling, not a gutting of every player of major league caliber. The Lind deal for 3 teenage arms is the one that I found so discouraging. I get that Lind was entering his final contract year but at a reasonable cost and considering offers of him made sense. But if all you could get were 3 guys who at best are question marks that might be of some value 5 years down the road, then I'd have rather held on to Lind at least until this year's deadline as he was the lone LH bat who was any threat in the lineup. That all they could come up with to replace him was Houston reject Carter made it worse in my opinion. That told me Stearns focus is on 2022, the year I turn 70. Not sure I'll live that long and there's a lot of Brewer fans my age or older that feel the same.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Some here have argued that the team should have been selling off players all along… not necessarily an extreme selloff like we're seeing now, but enough to keep the pipeline going. That might have resulted in "off" seasons here and there, but it also might have negated the need for a full fledged rebuild.

 

I think that sort of model is the one that may eventually be deployed in order to maintain the success of the club over a longer period of time. Maybe not to the extreme extent that the Rays have (it's basically a foregone conclusion that anyone approaching free agency is on the trading block), but the team may start looking to trade established starters for prospects to supplement the MiLB system. The trade targets (lower level vs MLB ready talent) will probably depend on what the overall system looks like and current chances of making the playoffs. Right now it makes sense to just get the best talent available, no matter the level.

[jerichoholicninja]

I'm sorry, but this is the only response I have for the original poster.

 

http://i0.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/001/582/picard-facepalm.jpg?1240934151