Segura to DBacks [RHP Tyler Wagner also included; return is $5.5M, 2B Aaron Hill, RHP Chase Anderson, & SS/2B Isan Diaz]

[MrTPlush]

He was AA player of the year, not a bad #1 at the time at all.

 

Agreed both were Top 5 prospects at their position. That is nothing to sneeze at.

[trwi7]

Morris was never a top 100 prospect and was never particularly good for a college player at any level other than AA. He was a really bad top prospect for an organization.

[Thurston Fluff]

Sometimes a club has to decide who to protect and who to save and allow a guy like Walsh to risk being taken. The Brewers have to play Walsh for what 80% of the season? Or he's returned to Oakland. How many competing teams are going to use a 25man spot to play a rookie 2b? Oakland has Sogard for now, Semien with Barretto to consider first. Sure Walsh hasn't had any ABs at ML level. Scooter has and it's not looking like he'll every be anything but 2war at best. Meanwhile Walsh who broke out is a switch-hitter a .400ob record. More HR/SB potential... there's just no reason to not see this guy get PAs who grew last season vs a guy regressing for a 2nd straight year? If Scooter gets dropped and magically produces that 2WAR season, will anyone shed a tear here we missed out on that?

Upside not higher floor is what should be given PAs if possible.

 

Keep in mind Gennett is younger than Walsh. In the time he was playing in the majors Walsh was mostly in A and AA. He has a total of a 147 ab's above AA. He OPSed .703 over those ab's. I get it's nice to see what they new guy has to offer but lets be realistic about his upside. He certainly isn't likely to out hit Gennett this season. Nor will he get us anywhere near the trade Gennett can bring us if he can hit right handers like he generally does. Walsh should not be getting starts over a younger player who has shown he can actually hit above the AA level several years ago just because he's the shiny new toy. I get he had a great season in AA last year. However, as guys like Hunter Morris show, any player can have a good season and still not be very good. Just like a 25 year old who has a tough year in the majors doesn't necessarily mean he's permanently regressed. It was worth taking a shot on Walsh due to the team's situation. If he makes it as a major league player all the better. But to take over as a starter from someone younger than he is who has already shown he can actually hit major league pitching in his still young career? No thank you.

[Jenkins5]

Sometimes a club has to decide who to protect and who to save and allow a guy like Walsh to risk being taken. The Brewers have to play Walsh for what 80% of the season? Or he's returned to Oakland. How many competing teams are going to use a 25man spot to play a rookie 2b? Oakland has Sogard for now, Semien with Barretto to consider first. Sure Walsh hasn't had any ABs at ML level. Scooter has and it's not looking like he'll every be anything but 2war at best. Meanwhile Walsh who broke out is a switch-hitter a .400ob record. More HR/SB potential... there's just no reason to not see this guy get PAs who grew last season vs a guy regressing for a 2nd straight year? If Scooter gets dropped and magically produces that 2WAR season, will anyone shed a tear here we missed out on that?

Upside not higher floor is what should be given PAs if possible.

 

Keep in mind Gennett is younger than Walsh. In the time he was playing in the majors Walsh was mostly in A and AA. He has a total of a 147 ab's above AA. He OPSed .703 over those ab's. I get it's nice to see what they new guy has to offer but lets be realistic about his upside. He certainly isn't likely to out hit Gennett this season. Nor will he get us anywhere near the trade Gennett can bring us if he can hit right handers like he generally does. Walsh should not be getting starts over a younger player who has shown he can actually hit above the AA level several years ago just because he's the shiny new toy. I get he had a great season in AA last year. However, as guys like Hunter Morris show, any player can have a good season and still not be very good. Just like a 25 year old who has a tough year in the majors doesn't necessarily mean he's permanently regressed. It was worth taking a shot on Walsh due to the team's situation. If he makes it as a major league player all the better. But to take over as a starter from someone younger than he is who has already shown he can actually hit major league pitching in his still young career? No thank you.

 

People tend to overlook things such as age. Scooter is a proven at worse to be a .300 platoon hitter facing righties. I still think until someone else really pushes Scooter off of 2B, he will continue to be part of this team.

[abrasam16]

We know what we have in Scooter. We have no idea what Walsh can do at the MLB level. If we are truly rebuilding, it makes no sense to not see what Walsh can bring to this team. Scooter will be an after though before contending again.

 

If we are truly rebuilding, no sense for Hill to ever see the field. Scooter at least has value for the right team at the trade deadline. No matter what his limitations are, he can hit RHP.

 

Hill will play against lefties and hopefully perform rather well. Stranger things have happened than Hill having a nice 2 or 3 months and then the Brewers getting a non-org guy for him. Guys like him get traded every deadline. Give him a chance to pump up his value.

[LouisEly]

The problem with Gennett isn't his batting average (or his defense which I have been surprisingly impressed with). It's the fact that he led the team in pitches outside of the strike zone swung at - a team that included Segura. With some discipline and patience (for goodness sake, he's 5'9" - he has a small strike zone to begin with) he could be so much better. But he's never been held accountable for his lack of plate discipline.

 

Stearns doesn't like guys with poor plate discipline. That's why I don't think Gennett is long for this team.

[FVBrewerFan]

Like Chris Carter?

[logan82]

Morris was never a top 100 prospect and was never particularly good for a college player at any level other than AA. He was a really bad top prospect for an organization.

Yup. He had one good year in the minors. Other than that he was bad.

 

Like Chris Carter?

The guy has an 11% walk rate in the majors. About 3 times Segura or Scooter.

[Ennder]

Like Chris Carter?

 

Carter has fine plate discipline, he just lacks the ability to make contact. in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and hitting them is worse than swinging at pitches in the strike zone and missing them. Unless you are say Vladamir Guerrero or Kung Fu Panda~.

[SoCalBrewfan]

No offense to Morris, but it is kind of shocking to think back and realize that he used to be #1 in the system.

 

I don't think Morris was ever actually ranked #1 in the system. BA had him 4th in '13 after his big year in Huntsville, behind Peralta, Thornburg, and Jungmann. He was 10th on the BA Brewers list in '14.

[adambr2]

Fangraphs has some pieces on the trade. Good stuff in there on Anderson and Diaz.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-quiet-upside-play/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/howie-kendrick-jean-segura-and-arizonas-latest-mistake/

[Roderick]

From TH

 

So, Brewers must pay Hill $5.5 M but they also subtracted $2.6 M salary of Jean Segura. Thus, minimal addition to payroll.

 

I read it that the DBacks are sending $5.5M. So it is the Brewers must pay Hill $6.5M, but subtract Segura's salary for a net increase of cost of $3.9M.

[brewcrewdue80]

We know what we have in Scooter. We have no idea what Walsh can do at the MLB level. If we are truly rebuilding, it makes no sense to not see what Walsh can bring to this team. Scooter will be an after though before contending again.

 

This is exactly my point. Scooter has 1000+PAs and has regressed. It's proven now he's a platoon player only. The upside no longer exists.

Yeah Walsh hasn't played. Someone has to give him that opportunity to find out what he's got. He has AAA Abs. Seems to me the argument against is he'll be worse than Gennett guaranteed... oh my God! If that happens we don't win 71games we only win 67. Just shy of making the playoffs....

We have the opportunity to play upside players. Scooters upside is lefty platoon bat . 280/.315/390 for a barely .700OPS...for a platoon bat? Which ought to be in the .800s if that's what you are.

Get the switch hitter with .360OB+ potential 10/10+ PAs.

[JohnBriggs12]

Fangraphs has some pieces on the trade. Good stuff in there on Anderson and Diaz.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-brewers-quiet-upside-play/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/howie-kendrick-jean-segura-and-arizonas-latest-mistake/

 

Really interesting read on Anderson. I said it before and I'll repeat it, the one way the 2016 might not be so painful would be because the rotation was solid 1 through 6. Anderson is one of the keys.

[monty57]

The upside no longer exists.

 

If that's true, it's only because he reached his potential at an early age, and is playing up to his potential when he has not yet reached his prime. Like many players, he just needs to be used correctly, which means he needs a platoon partner.

 

We've picked up plenty of guys who could fill that role, and I hope these guys do well, but I don't see anyone we've picked up that should start at 2B over Gennett vs RHP. As long as he's on the team, that spot should be his.

[Thurston Fluff]

Carter has fine plate discipline, he just lacks the ability to make contact. in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and hitting them is worse than swinging at pitches in the strike zone and missing them. Unless you are say Vladamir Guerrero or Kung Fu Panda~.

 

Yet Gennett gets an base at a higher rate than Carter. Plate discipline is a good thing but so is the ability to actually hit the ball. Obviously Gennett's approach has served him better than Carter's when it comes to getting one base. I might add that Carter's extra patience at the plate hasn't really helped him hit the ball much better either. Carter has a career OPS of .764 vs Gennett's .742. I just don't see how Carter's patience makes him better than Gennetts swing away approach. That said I think Gennett would be better served to take a few more pitches. It could only help his numbers.

[logan82]

Carter has fine plate discipline, he just lacks the ability to make contact. in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and hitting them is worse than swinging at pitches in the strike zone and missing them. Unless you are say Vladamir Guerrero or Kung Fu Panda~.

 

Yet Gennett gets an base at a higher rate than Carter. Plate discipline is a good thing but so is the ability to actually hit the ball. Obviously Gennett's approach has served him better than Carter's when it comes to getting one base. I might add that Carter's extra patience at the plate hasn't really helped him hit the ball much better either. Carter has a career OPS of .764 vs Gennett's .742. I just don't see how Carter's patience makes him better than Gennetts swing away approach. That said I think Gennett would be better served to take a few more pitches. It could only help his numbers.

Not sure how useful of a comparison that is. Scooter would not be anywhere near as good if he wasn't platooned most of the time. Also, Carter in a down year still had a higher OBP last year than Scooter.

[jerichoholicninja]

Taking pitches does not equal plate discipline. Rickie Weeks took a lot of pitches. He was great at watching fastballs over the plate before swinging at the low and away breaking ball. Prince had amazing plate discipline. He wouldn't swing at pitches off the plate but would swing at the first pitch fastball if you gave it to him. Adam Dunn took a lot of pitches too. But he would only swing at a pitch if it was in his perfect spot. He's take strike 3 over the plate if it wasn't his pitch. I'm not sure what type of player Carter is since I've never seen him play.

[nodakfan17]

I absolutely love this trade for all of the reasons mentioned, but especially Isan Diaz. For a team that is rebuilding, I have no problem trading a 0.1 WAR shortstop for a young man who was the Pioneer League MVP.

[Ennder]

Id think with Scooter you play him and hope he has a good start to build trade value. Someone will need a 2b come trade deadline.

[MNBrew]

From TH

 

So, Brewers must pay Hill $5.5 M but they also subtracted $2.6 M salary of Jean Segura. Thus, minimal addition to payroll.

 

I read it that the DBacks are sending $5.5M. So it is the Brewers must pay Hill $6.5M, but subtract Segura's salary for a net increase of cost of $3.9M.

The revised news yesterday was that AZ was sending $6.5M, not the $5.5M initially reported Saturday shortly after the deal broke. That makes a net increase of $2.9M.

 

If Hill's eventually flipped for other assets, then so much the better.

[Thurston Fluff]

Carter has fine plate discipline, he just lacks the ability to make contact. in general swinging at pitches out of the strike zone and hitting them is worse than swinging at pitches in the strike zone and missing them. Unless you are say Vladamir Guerrero or Kung Fu Panda~.

 

Yet Gennett gets an base at a higher rate than Carter. Plate discipline is a good thing but so is the ability to actually hit the ball. Obviously Gennett's approach has served him better than Carter's when it comes to getting one base. I might add that Carter's extra patience at the plate hasn't really helped him hit the ball much better either. Carter has a career OPS of .764 vs Gennett's .742. I just don't see how Carter's patience makes him better than Gennetts swing away approach. That said I think Gennett would be better served to take a few more pitches. It could only help his numbers.

Not sure how useful of a comparison that is. Scooter would not be anywhere near as good if he wasn't platooned most of the time. Also, Carter in a down year still had a higher OBP last year than Scooter.

 

Gennett also plays 2nd which makes lower offensive thresholds more acceptable. My point was not to compare the two as much as it was to say just taking a few more walks doesn't make him a better hitter.

[gregmag]

If we're okay thinking of Gennett the way we think of Carter -- as a low-reward stopgap who's fine as long as he's cheap -- then I like the comparison fine. The suggestion that Gennett is anything more than that is what bothers me.

 

He's a platoon, poor-fielding 2b who at his best can hit .300 with a little pop against RHPs. He has no defensive versatility and no speed. The biggest problem is that he has declined badly over his three MLB seasons. His BA and OBP have dropped by more than 25 points each season. His SLG has dropped by at least 45 points each season. Last year the only thing he did well was hit an empty .279 against RHPs. If that's all he is, then he's worthless.

 

There are reasons to hope, if not really believe, that both Carter and Gennett can improve. The team isn't going to win next year, so I have no problem giving them some time to see if either of them can do it. But if either fails, or if a better shot in the dark comes along for either spot, neither one is worth worrying about.

[Ennder]

The really scary part is his hard contact stats declining so much. Scooter does not have the tools to get on base with weak contact. He has trended down in almost every stat to be honest.

[jerichoholicninja]

Scooter's first season numbers were way over his head. His 2nd season was still pretty good. For some reason he was just terrible at the start of last year which made his 2015 numbers look not so great. After he was called back up in June he put up a .287/.314/.419 line in 322 PA which is right in line with what he did in 2014 which was .289/.320/.434.