Segura to DBacks [RHP Tyler Wagner also included; return is $5.5M, 2B Aaron Hill, RHP Chase Anderson, & SS/2B Isan Diaz]

[MrTPlush]

Tank job? Seriously?

 

The Brewers are not wasting roster spots to tank. End of story.

[brewcrewdue80]

Maybe Gennett is an odd man out. Walsh or him. Let's be honest. Gennett is losing shine as a ML 2b. What would the team really be keeping him for? Think he's fallen to AAAA status. You waive him go Villar,Walsh,Hill,Rivera rotation among 2b/ss. That's if Walsh&Rivera appear ready OD. Hill too. If he doesn't look all to good, may just waive him keep Gennett. Truth is Hill,Gennett they aren't part of the future like Diaz. Who really cares which stays, is waived, or traded?

[And That]

Anderson was brought in as a depth piece, ostensibly to push either Davies or Jungmann back down to AAA. I don't get the "nothing short of a mystery" line - it appears the author was prioritizing turn of phrase over actual baseball logic.

[SRB]

I'm not completely buying into Chase Anderson being a solid starter. Perhaps his mediocrity is part of the Brewers' tank job?

 

"....the Brewers acquired Anderson, who in two seasons with the Diamondbacks has an unremarkable strikeouts to innings pitched ratio, home run totals that portend danger at hitter-friendly Miller Park, and a walks plus hits per innings pitched number north of 1.3. General manager David Stearns insists Anderson will be slotted into the starting rotation. How he would represent an improvement over what the Brewers currently have in their rotation is nothing short of a mystery."

 

http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/brewers-segura-diamondbacks-trade/42019

 

Wow, some terrible "analysis" there. Anderson has a 7.3 K/9 in his 267 IP (he was better in the minors), a 4.17 FIP and 3.96 xFIP, and a 1.2 HR/9.

 

That makes him just a touch worse than league average (2015: 7.8 K/9, 1.0 HR/9, 3.96 FIP, 3.96 xFIP). Meanwhile, Miller Park is not really any more or less hitter friendly than Chase Field (both skew more hitter-friendly than average), and Anderson is not an extreme flyball pitcher.

 

By any metric, in 2015 Anderson was substantially better than Matt Garza and Wily Peralta, and more or less equivalent to Nelson and Jungmann. If you rank our projected rotation by xFIP from 2014-2015:

 

Anderson, 3.96 xFIP (267.0 IP)

Davies, 3.96 xFIP (34.0 IP)

Peralta, 3.97 xFIP (307.3 IP)

Nelson, 4.02 xFIP (246.6 IP)

Jungmann, 4.10 xFIP (119.3 IP)

Garza, 4.18 xFIP (312.0 IP)

 

Obviously nobody is expecting him to be the best pitcher on the team though. I'd say five years of a slightly-worse-than-league-average SP who can either absorb innings at the back of the rotation, or have a nice first half and get flipped for prospects, is a great return. Not sure what that author is talking about at all.

[adambr2]

You are trying to tell me you think Segura will have 3+ WAR defense at 2B?

 

Yes, absolutely. He was a 4 WAR player at SS in 2013. Players have off-years. Past performance is not a fool-proof way of predicting future results, however yes absolutely I could see Segura being a 3+ WAR player at 2B.

 

I really wanted the Brewers to keep Segura and convert him to 2B. I'm thrilled about Diaz though, and am very happy he is a Brewer.

 

Segura was fantastic for the first half of 2013 and has been a replacement level player since then. Far more likely that the aberration was the first couple months of 2013 rather than the 2 1/2 seasons since then.

[MrTPlush]

I honestly thought that site was one of those sarcastic joke sites. The article was so poorly written I had to cringe. Clearly he doesn't know how to write sports articles. Sports articles are suppose to be to the point and that writer non stop was adding fluff and extra description words to everything.

 

I am actually still not sure if that is a serious site. The "Gene" at the start was so stupid and unprofessional I truly hope they aren't trying to run a real site.

[JohnBriggs12]

I like the deal a lot Finally a deal that actually makes the 2016 team slightly better and still adds a very viable prospect. I see opening day infield of Hill at 3B, Villar at SS, Gennett at 2B, and Carter at 1B, with 2 of Perez, Walsh or Rivera as backups.

 

Anderson makes releasing Garza a no-brainer. They'd be replacing Garza with a somewhat established starter who as a guy not arby eligible for 2 more seasons, essentially becomes the return on the $25 million remaining investment in Garza without having to deal with a disgruntled guy in your clubhouse. Very, very shrewd.

 

Hill has a history of bounce back seasons. He's not likely to post anything near his peak seasons, but something around his career averages is still possible at age 34 and if he does that, he could have some trade value with Arizona roughly 40% of his salary.

 

I'm a bit concerned about Villar's defense SS, but if he hits, he'll likely end up at 3B anyway. Will be interesting to see if either Perez or Rivera push him and take that SS job.

 

Wagner was in a tough spot with all the other youngish arms. Can't keep em all. See him for Diaz as sort of one deal and Segura for Anderson and Hill as the other.

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'm not completely buying into Chase Anderson being a solid starter. Perhaps his mediocrity is part of the Brewers' tank job?

 

"....the Brewers acquired Anderson, who in two seasons with the Diamondbacks has an unremarkable strikeouts to innings pitched ratio, home run totals that portend danger at hitter-friendly Miller Park, and a walks plus hits per innings pitched number north of 1.3. General manager David Stearns insists Anderson will be slotted into the starting rotation. How he would represent an improvement over what the Brewers currently have in their rotation is nothing short of a mystery."

 

http://www.outsidepitchmlb.com/brewers-segura-diamondbacks-trade/42019

 

Good grief.......

 

Arizona is just as much (if not moreso) hitter friendly than Miller Park, for one thing.

 

Anderson is depth, and he's decent.

[adambr2]

I honestly thought that site was one of those sarcastic joke sites. The article was so poorly written I had to cringe. Clearly he doesn't know how to write sports articles. Sports articles are suppose to be to the point and that writer non stop was adding fluff and extra description words to everything.

 

I am actually still not sure if that is a serious site. The "Gene" at the start was so stupid and unprofessional I truly hope they aren't trying to run a real site.

 

It's also clear from his comment that Arcia will be up at 12:01 a.m. on June 1st that he has no idea how Super 2 eligibility works and is just sort of guessing at it.

[adambr2]

 

Anderson makes releasing Garza a no-brainer. They'd be replacing Garza with a somewhat established starter who as a guy not arby eligible for 2 more seasons, essentially becomes the return on the $25 million remaining investment in Garza without having to deal with a disgruntled guy in your clubhouse. Very, very shrewd.

 

 

I don't think that is going to be the plan. $25M is a tough pill to swallow of dead money, that's basically half of the original contract. I think they will put Garza in the rotation and attempt to salvage something out of him, even if that just means dumping him at the deadline for a minors filler and eating half his remaining contract.

 

I agree Anderson is a good add. He's a cheap rotation filler who should occupy a rotation spot for most of the rebuild for cheap. That's all we need him to be. He's also a guy you could alternatively re-flip at the deadline to a contender looking for rotation help if he has a career year.

[endaround]

I honestly thought that site was one of those sarcastic joke sites. The article was so poorly written I had to cringe. Clearly he doesn't know how to write sports articles. Sports articles are suppose to be to the point and that writer non stop was adding fluff and extra description words to everything.

 

I am actually still not sure if that is a serious site. The "Gene" at the start was so stupid and unprofessional I truly hope they aren't trying to run a real site.

 

It's also clear from his comment that Arcia will be up at 12:01 a.m. on June 1st that he has no idea how Super 2 eligibility works and is just sort of guessing at it.

 

Yep. There is absolutely no reason for either Arcia (or Philips) to spend one day in Milwaukee this season. Wasting serivce time and giving away a year of their prime on this team would be incredibly stupid. They are May 2017 call ups.

[CheeseheadInQC]

I have a feeling Garza will be in the rotation to start the season but won't be after the trade deadline next year. Either he'll look good enough where another team will agree to at least eat part of the contract or he'll look completely unsalvageable and get cut. As for the rotation, for now I'd guess Davies ends up at AAA, but who knows what deals are to come. Stearns has shown a willingness to do any kind of trade if he sees long term value in it, not just your standard veteran for minor leaguers moves. A guy like Jungmann could even end up dealt if the return is right.

[adambr2]

Random thought: Remember 10 years ago when we signed Jeff Suppan and how big of a deal it was and how big of a contract he got? Now years later in a minor trade we get a guy, Anderson, that is younger, cheaper, and projected to probably put up better numbers than what we could have realistically expected from Suppan, and yet this is really just a rotation filler.

 

Crazy, I guess pitching has just gotten that much better over the last 10 years.

[MKE81]

 

But in a scenario where the infield is

 

Carter

Gennett

Villar

Middlebrooks or Cecchini

 

Walsh

Hill

 

who is the back up short stop?

It has to be rivera right? so then out of those 6 who doesnt make the team? obviously will be answered in ST but if Walsh has a decent spring I would like to be able to keep him around, just not seeing a way that that is possible

 

If the plan is to have Villar start at SS while not platooning he'll only need 5-10 games off in the first half. Hill hasn't played there in 5yrs but he can fill in for those and the team would be fine and he'll most likely be flipped by the break anyway. He can also fill in at 3b while Middlebrooks fills in at 1b (especially if Lucroy is traded since he's the main backup at 1b). I'm not a fan of having Rivera on the MLB roster if he's going to be buried on the bench not playing somewhat regularly. It makes even more sense if Scooter is traded leaving Villar, Walsh, Rivera to cover Middle IF as they'll all get plenty of PT. A veteran can be had for cheap if needed for the 2nd half as an additional backup IF depending on how the roster shapes out after trades

[JohnBriggs12]

Maybe Gennett is an odd man out. Walsh or him. Let's be honest. Gennett is losing shine as a ML 2b. What would the team really be keeping him for? Think he's fallen to AAAA status. You waive him go Villar,Walsh,Hill,Rivera rotation among 2b/ss. That's if Walsh&Rivera appear ready OD. Hill too. If he doesn't look all to good, may just waive him keep Gennett. Truth is Hill,Gennett they aren't part of the future like Diaz. Who really cares which stays, is waived, or traded?

 

 

"Gennett is losing shine"? Where's the evidence of that? Against RHP, he's a career .307/.339/.458 hitter. He had a bad start in 2015 but was the same hitter he was the prior two years after a stint in the minors.

 

Walsh is no sure thing. Need a backup to Villar at SS? You stick Hill at 3B, and have Perez and Walsh as IF backups. Perez has value as a guy who can play all over the IF. There's absolutely no reason either Middlebrooks or Cecchini have to make the team.

[Invader3K]

I didn't get much chance to digest this trade yet (found out about it late last night), but so far I like what I've read. I liked Segura, but I think after 2015 it was time for him to move on. It has been obvious for a while now that he wasn't going to be our long term SS, so better to deal him now while he still has some decent trade value. Losing Wagner is kind of "meh" to me, and I really like what I've heard about Diaz so far.

[clancyphile]

I like this deal - and the big reason is Isan Diaz. Diaz looks to be ready for a full season in Low A (I'd probably keep Lara at Helena for 2016, given his struggles with the bat in 2015).

 

Wagner for Anderson is a slight gain for Milwaukee. Tyler Wagner could be a back-of-the-rotation starter or bullpen are, while Anderson is definitely a solid contributor in a major-league rotation.

 

At face value, Segura for Hill looks to be a slight loss for Milwaukee, but if Hill has a decent comeback season , the Brewers can flip him at the deadline for prospects or help elsewhere. That could make this deal a big win for the Brewers.

 

Hill could be an option at third base. For shortstop, Villar and Hernan Perez could be short-term stopgaps until Arcia is ready (although, I think a big spring could have Arcia at shortstop). Gennett's okay at second base, and Carter's at first.

[Outlander]

Regarding Gennett I am actually higher on him than in the past. Still think he can mash against righties and if he can improve his overall stats i think his trade value will be much higher later on. Also being heavily marketed by the team right now, whether it is the numerous radio interviews, the team store, selling season tickets or the event today in Milwaukee.

[Jenkins5]

Scooter will do what he has always done, mash righties. He is a guy who has a natural .300 hit tool. Only issues with Scooter is inability to prove he can hit lefties & the fact he doesn't walk. People are done on him because of an awful start last year, the hand injury, being sent down but once he came back up, he was back to hitting his .300 ways.

 

Villar projects better as a 2b than 3b in future but he will be a fine stop gap in 16' at SS. Hill should not EVER touch SS. He was deemed unable to play there 10 years ago at 24.... Now older, slower, & on Decline he is an option to play there at all? Mid as well fill Braun in there, he was a college SS. Perez or Rivera will fight it out for that back up spot.

 

Stearns may need to work out a trade for Walsh as it looks he may be blocked up now by Hill who plays all the same positions. Stearns can work out a trade and option Walsh to AAA until in season moves are made. I'd hate to lose Walsh before he ever gets a real look. He shouldn't cost much more than cash or a no one arm in the system. Then we won't have to deal with all the dumb rule 5 stuff, he'd just be a Brewer

[molitor fan]

Chase Anderson has a weird mojo going against the Reds...in 20 and 2/3 innings over 3 games, he has given up 1 run with 2 of the games in that Cincinnati bandbox....after looking over his 40 odd starts so far I like him as a back end starter going forward

 

Also, Jeff Zimmermann over at fangraphs is known for his metrics being a little different than others - however, he loves Domingo Santana and Isan Diaz - ranking them 4th and 14th respectively among milb hitters:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2016-prospect-rankings/

 

And Al Skorupa, a former fangraphs contributor and current A's scout had this to say about Diaz, throwing the name of Robbie Cano as a comparable - yes please....

 

"Saw Isan on the backfields this Spring and a few times over last couple years. I think he's a 2B. Just doesn't have the footspeed or actions for shortstop, but he improved enough where I had to stop and think about it... so maybe some team could play him there. I just wouldn't. He doesn't run like a shortstop and I don't think it will get any better as he reaches mid 20's. I'm not shocked at all by his power. There aren't many guys who create the kind of bat speed Isan does. The Robbie Cano comp has been thrown out there a billion times, but he really does have that swing and look. (Al Skorupa)

[MrTPlush]

Scooter Gennett is very under appreciated. I saw someone recommend cutting him now that we have Hill. That is crazy talk. As long as he is mashing righties I want him on this team. He hits the bigger half of a platoon and finding him a platoon mate will never be that hard. Heck I would extend the guy if he has a couple solid seasons in a row. He would be fairly cheap being a platoon guy and if we have a versatile utility guy to play the other half of his platoon we will get good production from 2nd base. We would have a hard time finding the combined production from just one player if we let him go.

 

2nd base is the new SS...an empty wasteland. Outside of Moncada there are no big time 2nd base prospects. Guys like Howie Kendrick are making $10mil.

[MKE81]

Scooter will do what he has always done, mash righties. He is a guy who has a natural .300 hit tool. Only issues with Scooter is inability to prove he can hit lefties & the fact he doesn't walk. People are done on him because of an awful start last year, the hand injury, being sent down but once he came back up, he was back to hitting his .300 ways.

 

Villar projects better as a 2b than 3b in future but he will be a fine stop gap in 16' at SS. Hill should not EVER touch SS. He was deemed unable to play there 10 years ago at 24.... Now older, slower, & on Decline he is an option to play there at all? Mid as well fill Braun in there, he was a college SS. Perez or Rivera will fight it out for that back up spot.

 

Stearns may need to work out a trade for Walsh as it looks he may be blocked up now by Hill who plays all the same positions. Stearns can work out a trade and option Walsh to AAA until in season moves are made. I'd hate to lose Walsh before he ever gets a real look. He shouldn't cost much more than cash or a no one arm in the system. Then we won't have to deal with all the dumb rule 5 stuff, he'd just be a Brewer

 

I don't think Scooter is close to having a natural .300 hit tool as he's strictly a platoon player and that type of player can't be classified as such. He's an inconsistent hitter - has only hit .300+ three months over the past 2yrs and is usually under 277. He's an avg defender. He needs to be traded; not platooned.

 

Hill might have been deemed unfit to play SS 10yrs ago but that doesn't mean he can't fill in for Villar a half dozen times, especially since we're not competing for the division this year. Hill played 3b 48 games the past 2yrs (38 last year) and previously didn't touch that position since 2005. Just because a player hasn't played a position regularly in a long time doesn't mean they're not capable of filling in during a pinch. Stearns said Villar is the primary option for SS therefore it's pointless burying Rivera on the bench as a backup. If Scooter is traded and Rivera is thought of as the primary option at 2b with Hill at 3b then great as Rivera can fill in for Villar at SS on nights off with Hill/Walsh filling in at 2b and Middlebrooks or Perez or Walsh at 3b. Middlebrooks could also fill in at 1b when needed too if/when Lucroy isn't on the team. There's clearly a lot of moving parts and options. But I don't understand Rivera being part of this team if he's not playing regularly. And I agree Walsh needs to get some PT and it would suck to lose him.

 

I think Stearns nets a veteran SS to be the primary player there with Villar sliding to 2b (agree he profiles better there and should be there with Scooter hopefully being traded). Carter, Villar, veteran SS, Hill with Middlebrooks or Perez + Walsh on bench covering all spots. Villar slides over to SS giving the veteran an off night.

[Austin Tatious]

Really like the deal. Love the concept of getting high ceiling younger talent. We see this trend of Stearns liking the talent before it explodes. He isn't getting middling, older talent from his trading of assets. We don't need the 25 year old in triple A in a trade when you can get that on a DFA.

 

In trades, he's getting teenagers or just on the other side of 20. Betancourt, the three teens from the Mariners. Diaz. The young pitcher from the Pirates we got for Rogers. Add this group to the last two drafts where we already have drafted high ceiling guys and the Gomez trade and there is a lot of potential top drawer talent that's so exciting in the overall plan.

 

Can't wait to see how the Lucroy deal works out. I think the media, with some of the proposed deals we have read about, are not paying attention to the profile of what we are looking for. We don't want a 25 year old hitting .232. Those deals are looking only from the contending teams' point of view and can't figure out what Milwaukee wants. Look at Stearns' other moves.

 

Then you look at the other component of the moves, which is how we are filling out the roster. Cecchini, Middlebrooks, Villar, Walsh, Broxton, Flores, Liriano, Zach Jones. Some of these guys were touted at one point. We are taking fliers on them. Cheap fliers. Who knows, you never know a couple of them may bloom. Based on odds, maybe a couple actually will.

 

I like the policy of taking cheap fliers on prospects who have stagnated to try to get the major league team filled, while trading assets for high ceiling prospects. But you do not trade assets for fliers. Anybody can find a .232 hitter that can defend in the outfield. You don't get that in a Lucroy deal.

 

In addition to the trades for high ceiling guys, where we look for analytic metrics too (e.g, k/bb ratio), we will have some high draft picks for a couple of years. Try to get a critical mass of high ceiling prospects before hopefully some percentage of them really come on and become top prospects. Keep stocking the lower levels with high ceiling talent and some will be coming up together as impact guys. As we get better, keep stocking the lower levels so there is a continual supply. We could ultimately have the deepest system we can remember.

 

In our market, we can't let it dip like we did after 2011. Keep it roaring. Only trade prospects if there are enough left over. That's how we can fine tune our next run. Inject the big league club with precocious talent here and there. Last time around, our farm system ran out of gas after we traded any semblance of depth from the system.

[Boomer5]

Diaz is the kind of guy we should be trading for. This looks like a much better return than the Lind trade.

 

If you break it down, it looks like Segura and Wagner for Anderson. I don't love that trade as Anderson is the definition of mediocre but he could be flipped as I'm not sure what the Brewers need in him unless Wily is about to be dealt. Segura is a legit starting SS though hardly the top of the order doubles and SB machine we thought we had.

 

Then it's $5.5 million for Diaz. With the Brewers cheap roster, picking up a bad contract in exchange for a prospect is smart business.

 

I don't think Hill matters to anyone and it wouldn't be a shock if he was DFA'd.

 

The MLB roster didn't get any better of course as they didn't give up much, but the Brewers added a really nice asset in a 19 year old SS who is a potentially high end bat at a key position.

[Polish Falcons]

I'm excited we got a solid prospect for Segura. I do have questions about Aaron Hill however. Is he even worthy of a MLB roster spot anymore? Looking over stats, he was one of the worst hitting 2B in all of the league the past two years. By war, the worst actually. I would rather see Walsh platoon with Scooter, and have a real SS as backup to Villar.