Segura to DBacks [RHP Tyler Wagner also included; return is $5.5M, 2B Aaron Hill, RHP Chase Anderson, & SS/2B Isan Diaz]

[3and2Fastball]

Segura has been tearing up the Cactus League to the tune of .541/.553/.811. I watched the D-Backs broadcast last night and they love him though they were quick to point out that last night was the first time he'd walked all spring.

 

While I thought Brewers got a decent deal for him, I was never in the camp that he's not a major league caliber starting SS. In fact they might have sold low on him.

 

I strongly agree. Although Isan Diaz is the wildcard in that trade. How he ends up as a player will dictate a lot as to who "won" that trade. Anderson & Hill are mere throw-ins

[homer]

Do they keep historic spring training stats anywhere?

[DuWayne Steurer]

Do they keep historic spring training stats anywhere?

 

 

They might, but I don't see the value in them, because they're more or less meaningless.

[Boomer5]

Segura has been tearing up the Cactus League to the tune of .541/.553/.811. I watched the D-Backs broadcast last night and they love him though they were quick to point out that last night was the first time he'd walked all spring.

 

While I thought Brewers got a decent deal for him, I was never in the camp that he's not a major league caliber starting SS. In fact they might have sold low on him.

 

Probably. None of the trades we made were home runs, but that wasn't really the point of this trade or any of the trades. It was about getting Diaz and continuing the ahem, rebuild.

 

Spring training stats are the those double edge swords, Segura and Sardinas look like All Star SS right now but in fairness to Stearns he thought he had what he had and moved accordingly. I cant fault him for trading Segura as he just looked so bad the last two years and Diaz is receiving some big time comps off last year. Sardinas is a different story, he was sold low and fringe SS are more valuable that fringe OF.

[homer]

Do they keep historic spring training stats anywhere?

 

 

They might, but I don't see the value in them, because they're more or less meaningless.

 

 

I agree but it might be interesting to see if Segura had a red hot spring when he was in Milwaukee.

[trwi7]

2012 - .381/.462/.714

2013 - .367/.377/.550

2015 - .309/.349/.424

 

Career - .350/.384/.510

 

http://m.mlb.com/player/516416/jean-segura?year=2016&stats=career-s-hitting-mlb

[jerichoholicninja]

[sarcasm]Hey, he's been terrible for two and a half seasons but these two weeks worth of spring training at bats have turned him around.[/sarcasm]

[xisxisxis]

2012 - .381/.462/.714

2013 - .367/.377/.550

2015 - .309/.349/.424

 

Career - .350/.384/.510

 

2 thoughts came to mind when I saw those numbers:

 

1) in 2012, Segura must have faced some pitchers who were practicing their IBB;

2) where's the display in cooperstown for spring training stats. Wait, there isnt one? why not? I bet many people would gladly spend their entire visit there. Maybe the HOF could add a whole wing for small sample size displays ....

[monty57]

Segura has been really bad for most of his MLB career, so it shouldn't be hard for Villar to match up with the production he's replacing. Even if Segura finally does "find it," it was a trade that needed to be made. GM's can't sit on their hands forever waiting for players to finally "find it." Eventually, they have to cut the cord on non-performing players, and if they can somehow end up turning that non-producing asset into an MLB starting pitcher, an MLB starting 3B, and a very high upside young prospect, then I think they've done pretty well.

 

Hill and Anderson may not be world-beaters, but they at least allow for us to have actual MLB players on the MLB roster during the first year of the rebuild, before the prospects take their spots. The real prize will hopefully be Diaz, who could turn into a special player, and at the very least adds to the growing talent pool in the minors, making it much more likely the farm will produce a number of good MLB players going forward.

[homer]

2012 - .381/.462/.714

2013 - .367/.377/.550

2015 - .309/.349/.424

 

Career - .350/.384/.510

 

http://m.mlb.com/player/516416/jean-segura?year=2016&stats=career-s-hitting-mlb

 

 

Thanks.

[umphrey]

I wouldn't feel bad about that trade if Segura puts up a 3-4 win season. I don't think he would do that in Milwaukee and if he does it in Arizona I think a change of scenery will have a lot to do with it.

[TooLiveBrew]

I was definitely one who assumed Segura would come crashing back to his lows/norms after a hot start this season, but nice to see Jean have a really good year in Arizona.

 

As of today, his slash line is .313/.360/.464/.824. He cooled off in May, but aside from that (& a bad start so far to September), he's been good all year, & significantly better in the second half of the season. FanGraphs as of right now has him at 3.2 WAR for 2016.

 

To umphrey's point, it really makes me wonder how much some more distance (time-wise) from his child's death & a change in scenery has factored in. Just glad he's playing well.

[FVBrewerFan]

What it tells me is analytics often can't predict if/how/when you players will progress. Segura is a great example. Had some really good milb seasons, and showed the same ability for stretches in MLB.

 

Suddenly it's set in stone he has hot starts, then sucks. Truth is, some guys take longer than others to consistently hit MLB pitching. We'll never know if it's due to changing where his hands start, change of scenery, getting focused again on baseball, or any other reason.

 

But yes, good for him, hope he continues to have a good career.

[jerichoholicninja]

Before this season Segura had two or three really good months, a few average ones scattered in there, and the rest were downright terrible. He showed zero signs of improvement in Milwaukee as he flailed away at the first or second just about every at bat without making any changes. Maybe it was the change in scenery or maybe it was the change in coaching. I don't buy his son dying being a huge reason because he was pretty bad well before he was even conceived. Either way I was glad to see him traded and we'll see if he can repeat what he's doing next year.

[pacopete4]

I'm happy for Jean but also very happy we have the players we have. Diaz looks to be an up and coming stud and Villar might not be on this team without the trade.

[TooLiveBrew]

What it tells me is analytics often can't predict if/how/when you players will progress.

One thing I've been thinking about recently is that a lot of the more (for lack of a better phrase) advanced statistics are... basically documenting the things that scouting has been highlighting for years. How hard a batter hits a ball, how often he hits it hard -- how effective a specific pitch is from a pitcher, how effective it is in certain counts/scenarios, how effective it is against different types of hitters, etc.

 

The takeaway for me at this point is that, no matter how advanced any statistics are or become, the real 'secret sauce' of player analysis is in their physical actions. I would guess that, if it isn't here already, some form of digital analytics based on video of players' physical deliveries/swings/etc. will be the new way forward. As far as we fans are aware now, the best organizations are using statistics to support scouting -- anyone focusing on just one or the other is surely losing the future.

 

I think virtual reality/augmented reality will become huge in sports, and baseball especially is ripe for adoption. Instead of just watching video, now teams can create models for opposing pitchers/hitters based on real-life tendencies & data. And players can train against these very real digital models of their opponents. Imagine being a player, & instead of walking into your normal batting cage, you strap on a VR/AR headset. Now you're facing the upcoming opposing starting pitcher for tomorrow's game, and working against his real pitches, delivery, & tendencies. And you can create any scenario imaginable.

 

MLB clubs have been monitoring pitches in a 3D sense (PitchFX) for years now... I'd bet the leading clubs are either looking into how to adopt VR/AR, or they've already adopted it.

[TooLiveBrew]

One more bump for this thread. Segura up to .316/.363/.496/.859, with 20 HR, 40 2B, & should finish with at least 200 hits. Happy to see him have such a great year with AZ.

[JohnBriggs12]

Before this season Segura had two or three really good months, a few average ones scattered in there, and the rest were downright terrible. He showed zero signs of improvement in Milwaukee as he flailed away at the first or second just about every at bat without making any changes. Maybe it was the change in scenery or maybe it was the change in coaching. I don't buy his son dying being a huge reason because he was pretty bad well before he was even conceived. Either way I was glad to see him traded and we'll see if he can repeat what he's doing next year.

 

Almost every hitter has bad months. Segura was never "downright terrible". He showed up and played hard. In September 2014 when the almost the entire team collapsed, Segura hit .319/.364/.389. He's a talented player and always was. Sometimes the results weren't there, but it was never from a lack of effort. Jury is still out on that deal. If Diaz turns out to live up to expectations, then it was a good deal. Anderson's been okay.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Anderson was really good in the 2nd half. Some speculation that this was due to his removing his cutter (his weakest pitch) from his repertoire. Small sample size, so we'll see. As it is, I'd like to see him in the rotation next year, at least at the outset to see if this trend continues.

[patrickgpe]

i think of all of the off season trades, this one benefited both teams the most.

[danzig6767]

Segura reminds me a bit of Broxton.

 

Once in awhile a hitting or pitching coach can have a dramatic impact on a player. Segura struggled badly for two straight years with the Brewers and after the trade to Arizona, he was told to try lowering his hands and clearly it's had a dramatic positive impact on him as evidenced by his fabulous season.

 

Broxton also struggled badly early on this year and looked completely lost at the plate. He like Segura was told to try lowering his hands and the results were pretty dramatic.

 

For many already major league baseball players, coaches can work with them repeatedly and still only have a minor impact on fixing flaws of that player. Here and there though whether it's a tweak in a batter's stance at the plate or say a pitching coach changing a pitchers arm slot/teaching them a new pitch, the results can be much more dramatic. Look at Arrieta with the Cubs.

[monty57]

Anderson was really good in the 2nd half. Some speculation that this was due to his removing his cutter (his weakest pitch) from his repertoire. Small sample size, so we'll see. As it is, I'd like to see him in the rotation next year, at least at the outset to see if this trend continues.

 

I see Anderson as a good back-end of the rotation guy who will log a bunch of innings for a few years when we don't have good alternatives. When the more talented prospects force their way onto the MLB scene, hopefully he will have shown enough that we can trade him for something of value.

 

Don't get me wrong, I would love for him to become a #2/3 guy, but I just think he's more a #4/5 guy, and that's fine. We need that right now, and other teams will always need guys like that, so he should have trade value in a few years when hopefully we will have more talented guys than him in the rotation.

 

So as to the trade as a whole, I'm glad for Segura, but I really just care about the Brewers. They got some good play from Hill and were able to flip him. They will hopefully get a few seasons from Anderson and then flip him, and the real key to the trade will be whether Diaz can reach his potential, as he could be a good MLB player if he does. Plus, as a previous poster stated, we may not have done the Villar deal if we hadn't traded Segura, so in that light, Villar has matched Segura, and the rest of the added value is "gravy."

[MrTPlush]

One more bump for this thread. Segura up to .316/.363/.496/.859, with 20 HR, 40 2B, & should finish with at least 200 hits. Happy to see him have such a great year with AZ.

 

Yup because he was clearly never going to do anything here. Looks bad, but holding on to him would have been much worse. He was a lost cause here.

 

If Diaz becomes a Top 50 prospect and becomes an above average offensive player I won't shed a single tear.

[TooLiveBrew]

One more bump for this thread. Segura up to .316/.363/.496/.859, with 20 HR, 40 2B, & should finish with at least 200 hits. Happy to see him have such a great year with AZ.

 

Yup because he was clearly never going to do anything here. Looks bad, but holding on to him would have been much worse. He was a lost cause here.

 

If Diaz becomes a Top 50 prospect and becomes an above average offensive player I won't shed a single tear.

I didn't bump the thread with any agenda. I'm genuinely happy to see Jean doing well. That's a hell of a season for a middle infielder.

 

I liked this trade at the time, & am pretty confident in Diaz. That a back-end MLB SP was the thrown-in of the pieces we got back also speaks well of the deal. And I'm sure Arizona is happy too -- like patrickgpe noted, this is looking good for both clubs.

[jerichoholicninja]

Before this season Segura had two or three really good months, a few average ones scattered in there, and the rest were downright terrible. He showed zero signs of improvement in Milwaukee as he flailed away at the first or second just about every at bat without making any changes. Maybe it was the change in scenery or maybe it was the change in coaching. I don't buy his son dying being a huge reason because he was pretty bad well before he was even conceived. Either way I was glad to see him traded and we'll see if he can repeat what he's doing next year.

 

Almost every hitter has bad months. Segura was never "downright terrible". He showed up and played hard. In September 2014 when the almost the entire team collapsed, Segura hit .319/.364/.389. He's a talented player and always was. Sometimes the results weren't there, but it was never from a lack of effort. Jury is still out on that deal. If Diaz turns out to live up to expectations, then it was a good deal. Anderson's been okay.

 

Jean's 81 OPS+ with Milwaukee is downright terrible. His 13 months he put up a sub .700 OPS, 6 months he put up a sub .600 OPS, and 2 months with a sub .500 OPS here were downright terrible. He had way more bad months than good months.