Simple Change to Fix Drafting/Tanking of All Major Sports

[Boomer5]

Further to my post above, the 2016 draft plus international pool is more interesting:

 

Club Rule 4 (Draft) International Total

Reds $13,923,700 $5,163,400 $19,087,100

Phillies $13,405,200 $5,610,800 $19,016,000

Braves $12,385,200 $4,766,000 $17,151,200

Padres $12,743,800 $3,347,600 $16,091,400

Rockies $11,153,400 $4,412,700 $15,566,100

Athletics $9,883,500 $3,818,700 $13,702,200

Brewers $9,364,300 $4,098,500 $13,462,800

 

If you are Stearns and the door is closed, which is more compelling to you? 68 wins and $13.4M or 63 wins and $19M? Its a little more complicated than that because Cinn won the first competitive balance pick but again you get the idea.

 

If you are the GM, which is easier to obtain in 2017 if you are handed a 68 win team? Get us to the top pool money or the Wild Card?

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/2016-mlb-draft-international-bonus-pools/

[DuWayne Steurer]

Nobody will deny that pool money and higher draft picks are important. But scouting and development matter just as much (if not more). I think....what.....15% of all first round picks play more than 3 years in the majors? Baseball drafts are so much more of a crap shoot than the NFL or NBA drafts. Recognizing and developing the talent is more important than having a high draft pick.

 

Mike Trout was 23rd overall pick IIRC.

[Boomer5]

Nobody will deny that pool money and higher draft picks are important. But scouting and development matter just as much (if not more). I think....what.....15% of all first round picks play more than 3 years in the majors? Baseball drafts are so much more of a crap shoot than the NFL or NBA drafts. Recognizing and developing the talent is more important than having a high draft pick.

 

Mike Trout was 23rd overall pick IIRC.

 

Look at that 2016 chart again. The pool money for the difference of 5 wins is $5.5M. I am assuming Montgomery knows what he is doing. I will also assume that he would do better with an additional $5.5, and lets face it, the fans wouldn't have been any less excited to finish last vs 5th to last.

 

Off topic, but Trout was picked one pick before the Brewers picked. Why? Because baseball somehow rated Texiera higher than CC who had a much better season. I hate how baseballs FO works.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is the 2015 slot pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft (Houston had 2 high picks so that skews it but you get the idea). If you think Stearns isnt painfully aware of this and what it would mean to his talent acquisition plans, think again.

 

Of course he is aware, who is saying he's not? But you still haven't answered my question. If Stearns had NO first round pick in the 2017 draft, what would he have done differently since he came to Milwaukee?

 

See, I feel like this has become somewhat of a strawman argument. You are trying to prove the Brewers will benefit from a higher draft position, which nobody disputes. The only question is whether this is Stearns goal, or if it's simply the result of having a rebuilding year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Now I think another way to end tanking would be to penalize teams their #1draft pick if a majority vote of owners believe your organization tanked.

 

That would not prevent a team from rebuilding, or tanking as you call it. I keep asking, what would Stearns have done differently if a rule like this was in effect? Do you think he wouldn't have traded Lind, KRod, Segura, Davis, etc.? Do you think he still wouldn't try to trade Lucroy, Braun, and others even if it was guaranteed he would have no 1st round pick in the 2017 draft?

 

Finally, I think it's odd that this has become a topic of debate suddenly this year, when teams have been rebuilding/tanking for decades. I don't see what the problem is, it's up to each team to do what's best in their situation. Has always been that way, always should be that way.

 

That's why I mentioned it being put to a vote among the owners. I don't see the moves Stearns has made as weakening the team. I would not be surprised if they won 72-75games. I'd be surprised if they only won 60-64. Lind is/was a platoon bat. KRod a closer among many who've been traded this offseason, Segura is blocking the team's #1 prospect, Davis is a replacement level player with no defense upside and a .240s BA. I'd find it hard for more than 5owners to vote the Brewers tanking much less 15+.

Now, if you look at BRef, every baseball team has a 60+mil estimated payroll. This isn't the under 40mil payrolls Houston and Miami tanked with in previous seasons. Or like the Brewers tank payrolls in early 2000s. So I agree this "Tank" dilemma is being brought about by certain people with their own propaganda.

[Boomer5]

This is the 2015 slot pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft (Houston had 2 high picks so that skews it but you get the idea). If you think Stearns isnt painfully aware of this and what it would mean to his talent acquisition plans, think again.

 

Of course he is aware, who is saying he's not? But you still haven't answered my question. If Stearns had NO first round pick in the 2017 draft, what would he have done differently since he came to Milwaukee?

 

See, I feel like this has become somewhat of a strawman argument. You are trying to prove the Brewers will benefit from a higher draft position, which nobody disputes. The only question is whether this is Stearns goal, or if it's simply the result of having a rebuilding year.

 

I am not a mind reader but I dont think there is any doubt that is his goal based on his moves so far and the math that is the pool. Winning 72 games and picking 10th and giving up $8 million (the current difference in 1st to 10th) in slot money would be a full blown disaster. What GM that has just traded two cheap run producers in the heart of his order for 5 teenagers/A Ball guys cares about winning any games in 2016 if he has an excellent and easy to obtain chance to run the table on best in class talent in 17 and 18???

 

I can promise you that he is more than aware of the difference between 62 and 72 wins and the damage 72 wins would do to his pipeline which is all he cares about, and rightly so.

 

This board was quite excited over trading for Nottingham (meh) and Diaz (A+++ pick up). An extra $8 Million is the exact same thing as picking 4-5 guys who by their signing status would be better than a Notthingham or a Diaz using the underslot first pick model Stearns former team used with Correa.

 

What would he do differently if he didn't have a first round pick in 2017? He would be even more aggressive on trades in terms of high ceiling lower level guys than he has been because he understands the incredible loss the pick and the pool $$ would be. In fact, I think he knows how bad that loss would be that, assuming he had other GM offers, he might not even take the Brewer job.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is the 2015 slot pool for the first 10 rounds of the draft (Houston had 2 high picks so that skews it but you get the idea). If you think Stearns isnt painfully aware of this and what it would mean to his talent acquisition plans, think again.

 

Of course he is aware, who is saying he's not? But you still haven't answered my question. If Stearns had NO first round pick in the 2017 draft, what would he have done differently since he came to Milwaukee?

 

See, I feel like this has become somewhat of a strawman argument. You are trying to prove the Brewers will benefit from a higher draft position, which nobody disputes. The only question is whether this is Stearns goal, or if it's simply the result of having a rebuilding year.

 

What would he do differently if he didn't have a first round pick in 2017? He would be even more aggressive on trades in terms of high ceiling lower level guys than he has been because he understands the incredible loss the pick and the pool $$ would be. In fact, I think he knows how bad that loss would be that, assuming he had other GM offers, he might not even take the Brewer job.

 

I'm not sure how he could be MORE aggressive? It's pretty clear he's anxious to trade Braun and Lucroy for high ceiling prospects. But he's not going to make a bad deal just because their value is seen as lower than what Stearns thinks they're worth. That's the way he should approach it.

 

Stearns has and will trade anyone not in the plans for 2018 and beyond, to create a window to compete then. You really don't think he would be doing that no matter what pick or pool $ he had?

 

Actually, if having the #1 pick the next two years was his goal, he WOULD have traded Lucroy by now. Braun too if there was any taker at all. Probably Peralta and Smith. He would have taken lessor deals just to maximize losses this year right?

[Boomer5]

The season hasn't started yet. Luc is all but gone. Braun is just a health and math issue.

 

I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year.

 

Let's remember his job responsibilities. He isnt in charge of marketing or selling tickets. His only job is the pipeline. 72 wins devastates his ability to do that. Does that mean he tweets it out like Kanye?

 

Of course not, but do the math. His job gets a lot easier at 62 wins and way way way harder at 72 wins.

[DuWayne Steurer]

The season hasn't started yet. Luc is all but gone. Braun is just a health and math issue.

 

I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year.

 

Let's remember his job responsibilities. He isnt in charge of marketing or selling tickets. His only job is the pipeline. 72 wins devastates his ability to do that.

 

 

"Devastates"?

 

Aren't you being a little over the top with the wording here?

[BillScottCanRake]

By WAR and per baseball-reference.com:

- Rickie Weeks (2) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2003 draft by a fair amount.

- Justin Verlander (2) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2004 draft by a huge amount.

- Alex Gordon (2), Ryan Zimmerman (4) and Ryan Braun (5) have all arguably better than the first pick in the 2005 draft.

- Evan Longoria (3) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2006 draft by a pretty wide margin.

- Matt Wieters (5) was the second best player taken in the top five picks after David Price (1) in the 2007 draft.

- Buster Posey (5) was the best player taken in the top five picks of the 2008 draft.

 

Again per baseball-reference.com, the AL starters in the 2015 All-star game were drafted:

25th overall

48th overall

13th round

Amateur FA (international)

17th round

37th overall

Amateur FA (international)

Amateur FA (international)

Amateur FA (international)

7th round

 

The starters for the NL All Star Team were drafted:

11th overall

34th overall

1st overall

8th round

5th overall

6th round

Amateur FA (international)

11th round

2nd round

6th overall

 

Only one guy was drafted first overall and only 3 were drafted in the top 10, while 6 players were drafted in the 6th round or later and 5 were international FAs.

 

I am unconvinced the Brewers need to pick first lest their rebuilding plan be setback. I don't believe the evidence supports that conclusion.

[FVBrewerFan]

I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year.

 

Never said he cares about winning this year. I said he isn't purposely trying to lose as many games as possible to get the #1 pick. Big difference there.

 

The goal is to acquire and develop as much talent as possible for the future, it's really very simple. That will result in "x" number of wins/losses this year, which simply doesn't matter.

[Boomer5]

I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year.

 

Never said he cares about winning this year. I said he isn't purposely trying to lose as many games as possible to get the #1 pick. Big difference there.

 

The goal is to acquire and develop as much talent as possible for the future, it's really very simple. That will result in "x" number of wins/losses this year, which simply doesn't matter.

 

No it isn't. He wants to lose and he wants to lose a lot. Publicly he cant say it but internally I will guarantee he and Montgomery talk about it all day every day.

 

He wouldn't have traded cheap productive players and replaced them on the MLB roster with guys few if anyone one wanted if he didn't. Be as naive as you want, its a free country. The draft and international is every bit as important to his plan as the trades have been, and likely far more important.

 

He isnt the clown from the Sixers, i will give you that. That guy might the worst thing to happen to sports since Roger Goodell. But make no mistake, the draft is Stearns key tool going forward and he intends to maximize his ammunition, and rightly so.

[Boomer5]

By WAR and per baseball-reference.com:

- Rickie Weeks (2) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2003 draft by a fair amount.

- Justin Verlander (2) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2004 draft by a huge amount.

- Alex Gordon (2), Ryan Zimmerman (4) and Ryan Braun (5) have all arguably better than the first pick in the 2005 draft.

- Evan Longoria (3) was the best player taken in the first five picks of the 2006 draft by a pretty wide margin.

- Matt Wieters (5) was the second best player taken in the top five picks after David Price (1) in the 2007 draft.

- Buster Posey (5) was the best player taken in the top five picks of the 2008 draft.

 

Again per baseball-reference.com, the AL starters in the 2015 All-star game were drafted:

25th overall

48th overall

13th round

Amateur FA (international)

17th round

37th overall

Amateur FA (international)

Amateur FA (international)

Amateur FA (international)

7th round

 

The starters for the NL All Star Team were drafted:

11th overall

34th overall

1st overall

8th round

5th overall

6th round

Amateur FA (international)

11th round

2nd round

6th overall

 

Only one guy was drafted first overall and only 3 were drafted in the top 10, while 6 players were drafted in the 6th round or later and 5 were international FAs.

 

I am unconvinced the Brewers need to pick first lest their rebuilding plan be setback. I don't believe the evidence supports that conclusion.

 

Ah, the classic every QB picked in the 6th round is the next Tom Brady argument.

 

Look at the draft pool $$'s again from 1st on down and then look at the Brewers payroll capability vs. Chicago and St Louis. To say they dont need all the bullets they can to win this fight seems a tad on the optimistic side.

[FVBrewerFan]

I will say if he doesnt trade Luc and Smith and/or takes back primarily MLB ready level talent for Luc then yes, you are right, he cares about winning this year.

 

Never said he cares about winning this year. I said he isn't purposely trying to lose as many games as possible to get the #1 pick. Big difference there.

 

The goal is to acquire and develop as much talent as possible for the future, it's really very simple. That will result in "x" number of wins/losses this year, which simply doesn't matter.

 

No it isn't. He wants to lose and he wants to lose a lot. Publicly he cant say it but internally I will guarantee he and Montgomery talk about it all day every day.

 

He wouldn't have traded cheap productive players and replaced them on the MLB roster with guys few if anyone one wanted if he didn't. Be as naive as you want, its a free country. The draft and international is every bit as important to his plan as the trades have been, and likely far more important.

 

 

And I guarantee you they're not talking about it every day, or at all for that matter. They know perfectly well they will have a high draft pick, they don't need to talk about it and figure out how to lose as many games as possible.

 

What cheap productive players have they traded? Davis is it. He was traded because he will be on the wrong side of 30 when they start winning again, and have a lot of other options in the OF moving forward. Everyone else had expiring contracts (KRod, Lind), or are just bad (Segura.)

 

I'm not naïve. Frankly, you're just being a bit stubborn about this no matter how many people explain how throwing away a season just to maximize draft position makes no sense whatsoever. Sometimes you need to take it all in, think it over, and maybe you'll agree. If not, that's cool, I've been known to be a contrarian quite often.