Predict End of Season 2016 Top Prospects

[Crash2303]

okay- let's say the 2016 season just finished and we're submitting our brewerfan community top 25 prospects...based on what you know now and see things trending- what's your top 25?

 

Here's My Predictions (my current rank):

 

1 Orlando Arcia (1)

2 Brett Phillips (2)

3 Trenton Clark (3)

4 Cody Ponce (9)

5 Demi Orimoloye (13)

6 Michael Reed (22)

7 Kodi Medeiros (8)

8 Gilbert Lara (7)

9 Josh Hader (6)

10 Tyrone Taylor (11)

11 Jorge Lopez (5)

12 Clint Coulter (14)

13 Devin Williams (16)

14 Nathan Kirby (12)

15 Monte Harrison (10)

16 Marcos Diplan (17)

17 Yhonathan Barrios (34)

18 Ramon Flores* (20)

19 Keon Broxton (39)

20 Jacob Gatewood (19)

21 Adrian Houser (21)

22 Damien Magnifico (35)

23 Victor Roache (23)

24 Miguel Diaz (49)

25 Garrett Cooper (45)

 

In addition, I think...

* Flores will play in the majors at some point this season, but he'll retain his "prospect" status for our list purposes.

* Reed is going to put up some power numbers this year that will make people take some serious notice of his all around game. have you seen those muscle pics of him floatin around? damn. and in Col. Springs?

* lopez & hader will struggle a bit in Colorado

* Ponce is going to dominate Brev. Co and get a promotion to AA

* Lara is going to play stateside at some point and show why he's the 3 million dollar man

* Orimoloye is going to make teams kick themselves for not drafting him first chance they had

* whether repeating the season in AA or starting in AAA, Taylor will regain his elite prospect status with a solid year at the plate

* Barrios is just getting better and better with more pitching experience...even in colorado

* Notable guys taking big jumps into my top 50 - Tyrone Perry, Jay Feliciano, Nathan Orf, Jon Olczak, Malik Collymore

[Jenkins5]

Whoever we draft at #5 I'll automatically be top 5 & our 2nd round pick top 25. Then we still have a lot of possible trades coming, we are looking at a completely different Top 25 (example Brinson, Matuella for Lucroy, both fit in our top 10)

 

Even if Lopez & Hader struggle in AAA I don't dock them at all, Colorado Springs is made for pitchers struggle. Can't fault them for ball park (same could be said about Coulter in BC)

 

With Reed probably going up & down all season, I don't see him rising his stock. I do think Gatewood will swing a big bat this year in Wisconsin to move him back up the list

 

Edit: Continuing on

 

Realistically, if this season goes the way we think it may.....Many of these guys will fall off the list

Arcia

Phillips

Lopez

Hader

Barrios

Reed

Flores

Broxton

Magnifico

Houser

[Crash2303]

yes, most definitely with trades and draft picks, this list will look much different personnel-wise, and hopefully, much much stronger. I was meaning, when I said "what you see now" as to mean "as is". mainly, I liked the think-list we did a couple months ago on "biggest leap" http://forum.brewerfan.net/viewtopic.php?f=64&t=33476. people had interesting insight on who they think will take a leap forward and who might be positioned to take a step back. for me, a top 25 list just puts some helpful context around it as I look at my prospect lists for the upcoming year.

 

you bring up an interesting point though about park factors affecting prospect status. as for a hypothetical struggle of any pitching prospect at AAA, I think it most certainly affects their prospect status in the eyes of at least "outside the organization" pundits. management often times are looking for certain things in a player's development that are not privy to the public and not necessarily tied to numbers. we've heard it before that a pitcher may be restricted to using only certain pitches, or told to just work on consistency in their mechanics. and then once they see it- are advanced even if the numbers aren't there. take Juingamnn in AAA last year. he was having a pretty rough go at it, but obviously they saw something in his development that they liked and promoted him to the show and he showed he deserved the callup and his high prospect ranking. now, had he continued in AAA at those numbers, I think many people would have dropped him considerably, and given his age and opportunities, perhaps out of their top 25. you mentioned coulter as another example, but Coulter's numbers (in large part due to Brevard) definitely hurt his prospect status this past season (except it seems on MLB pipeline lol).

 

however, the other side of the coin is that, following a bad year at a bad park, there is also some leeway given that says, let's drop him a bit, but wait and see what he does away from that park at the next level before we drop him precipitously in our rankings, as I think is the case with Coulter, and affirmed by most of you, as stated well on reillymcshane's comment on our BF community list for coulter,

Coulter’s 13 HR were tied for 2nd in the league. Still, Coulter’s season can’t really be seen as anything but a bit of a disappointment (his drop from #4 to #12 reflects that sentiment amongst BF.net voters). A move to Biloxi next year should give us a better measure of his progress - both as a hitter and an outfielder.

[clancyphile]

My prediction:

1. Brent Suter

2. Trent Clark

3. Michael Reed

4. Jorge Ortega

5. Garrett Cooper

 

Suter, I think already broke out a bit in 2015 - and probably will cement himself as a left-handed Mike Fiers. Clark and Reed are just pure hitters, with Clark having a high ceiling while Reed will force his way into the lineup after the Brewers exhaust other options in center field (Nieuwenhuis, Broxton). Ortega's also going to prove he's for real after huge flashes of potential in 2015. Finally, Garrett Cooper will emerge as the Brewers' 2017 first baseman.

[Jenkins5]

My prediction:

1. Brent Suter

2. Trent Clark

3. Michael Reed

4. Jorge Ortega

5. Garrett Cooper

 

Suter, I think already broke out a bit in 2015 - and probably will cement himself as a left-handed Mike Fiers. Clark and Reed are just pure hitters, with Clark having a high ceiling while Reed will force his way into the lineup after the Brewers exhaust other options in center field (Nieuwenhuis, Broxton). Ortega's also going to prove he's for real after huge flashes of potential in 2015. Finally, Garrett Cooper will emerge as the Brewers' 2017 first baseman.

 

I can't compete with this.... I mean Clark makes sense, Reed is a bit of a stretch but possible but yeah....Guess everyone rates prospects different

[ctmyers]

My prediction:

Suter, I think already broke out a bit in 2015 - and probably will cement himself as a left-handed Mike Fiers.

 

So you think a left handed Mike Fiers is the best this system has to offer?

[Outlander]

I see the rankings being fairly similar to what they are now except for guys acquired in trade. I don't expect much in the graduation department for 2016 from our previous ranking, except for Davies.

[Crash2303]

well, as with most of our conversations, only time will tell.

[Jenkins5]

Top guys who have chance to shot up this year:

BC 3 Headed Monster

Ponce, Williams, Mederois should all dominate in A+ due to how pitcher friendly it is. Ponce should be in AA by mid season. Williams and Mederois will be left to dominate the whole season (build confidence & refine pitching) like with Jorge Lopez, BC was the first step (1st half of season) of his breakout.

 

Harrison & Gatewood

Harrison has everything you look for in a guy who can break out. If he carries over what he was doing in Helena, he will skyrocket! He walked 12% of PA's and K'd only 19%, he played great defense, stole tons of bases, he ISO'd .175 with a speed rating of 9.2 (unreal). He hit .299/.410/.474 before injury. Important to remember that he was pretty bad in 1st 11 games after demotion (.167 ave .683 OPS) before going for .400/.493/.545 in 17 games in July. His numbers in Helena were much closer to his approach in Arizona. Wisconsin was just too much of a jump for him.

 

Gatewood's power in undeniable. Kid can flat out crush the ball. Doubles will soon become HRs. He absolutely needs to make more contact this season. He only walked 7-8% of the time (which was an increase from Arizona) however he still K'd around 30% of his AB's. I like what he was able to do in Helena, he needs to continue to improve upon that in Wisconsin.

 

Trent Clark

Clark is so advanced at the plate, he will be a rapid riser in the rankings. Top 30-50 is not shocking by end of season. He will start in Wisconsin.

 

Lara & Demi O

I don't think there are two players in the system with more star power potential with more to show than Demi O and Lara (Gatewood & Harrison main competition). Lara started out good but as with any 17-18 year old, he got cold and couldn't overcome the mental hurdle of the game. He is far too talented for how he performed the 2nd half of his season in Arizona. As we have heard though, he struggles with maturity (as expected for a kid his age who received money he did.) He struggled to overcome the slump mentally, he was benched multiple times for not hustling, and some scouts him looking "sluggish" and "fatigued" Demi O has all the tools you look for, however, his inability to walk is an issue. His plate discipline must improve. Really both should be in Helena this year but as we all want to see, I would not be surprised by them making Wisconsin. Create a super wave

 

Diplan & Diaz

Both Diplan & Diaz should be able to get 1st taste of A ball this season. Diplan has been very promising since arriving and looks like the the main center piece that will define the Gallardo trade. Diaz now healthy has been great! He has a high K/9 low BB/9. His K% to BB% is very good. Batters don't hit well off him and he has a solid sub 3.00 FIP. Scouts have loved him for awhile so exciting what he can do for a full season. Before leaving Arizona, he was rated a top 15 prospect in our system.

 

Bounce back

Coulter & Taylor should both open up in AA and see stocks rise. For the 1st time in his career, Taylor did not adjust well. He was one of the youngest players in the league and a second go around should return him to form. He was a fringe Top 100 prospect and our #1 or #2. He has talent, needs to come out hot and earn way to AAA. Coulter is out of FSL & will mash. Both can easily raise stock back up.

 

Guys who are in mix to break out.

Tyrone Perry as an advanced approach at the plate. He offers great power but unless he can get his weight under control, his prospect star is harder to rise. He weighed 305 I believe on the Instructional roster....at 6'1, that's not good (not even at 6'6)

 

Joangtel Segovia is just a natural hitter, give him a few weeks to adjust then he will hit .360+ He could walk a little more and play with a little more speed but his hit tool is what will carry him.

 

Franley Mallen is one of my biggest breakout candidates. Earned way from DSL to Helena at end of the year and greatly improved on some of the areas he struggled at. He is going to stick at 2B it appears.

 

Carlos Belonis has always had the tools to wow, but this year they finally were on display. His approach at the plate and making contact will be his biggest hurdle. Could be a late bloomer type.

 

Ignacio Otano was a stud SS in the DSL who was unknown before the season. He has will be in the states this year with opportunity to rise.

 

Malik Collymore if very interesting prospect who was drafted as SS, moved to 2B and now is in OF. With how crowded the OF is, I wish he could move back to 2B but we will have to see.

 

Carlos Herrea & Carlos Luna should both be in the states this year following strong years in the DSL.

 

Jorge Ortega could really improve status if he can strike out a couple of hitters....

 

David Burkhalter & Angel Ventura are vastly underrated and overshadowed by Medorois, Williams, and Ponce. Both can take a big leap in BC.

[JohnBriggs12]

1, Hader

2. Phillips

3. Meideros

4. Clark

5. Whoever is drafted in first round.

[clancyphile]

My prediction:

Suter, I think already broke out a bit in 2015 - and probably will cement himself as a left-handed Mike Fiers.

 

So you think a left handed Mike Fiers is the best this system has to offer?

 

I think Lopez, Davies, and Hader will graduate from rookie status (and a prospect list). I see the Brewers cutting bait on Garza and eventually trading Peralta at the deadline. I'm not sold on Medeiros, while Ponce has too small a sample for me to judge where 2016 might go.

 

That said, Mike Fiers is not a bad outcome to have, and Suter's performance last year was VERY good, both at Biloxi and especially at Colorado Springs (where pitchers go to be clubbed like baby seals). A 3.31 ERA at Colorado Springs and a sub-2 ERA at Biloxi? Those speak pretty loudly to me.

[JohnBriggs12]

My prediction:

Suter, I think already broke out a bit in 2015 - and probably will cement himself as a left-handed Mike Fiers.

 

So you think a left handed Mike Fiers is the best this system has to offer?

 

I think Lopez, Davies, and Hader will graduate from rookie status (and a prospect list). I see the Brewers cutting bait on Garza and eventually trading Peralta at the deadline. I'm not sold on Medeiros, while Ponce has too small a sample for me to judge where 2016 might go.

 

That said, Mike Fiers is not a bad outcome to have, and Suter's performance last year was VERY good, both at Biloxi and especially at Colorado Springs (where pitchers go to be clubbed like baby seals). A 3.31 ERA at Colorado Springs and a sub-2 ERA at Biloxi? Those speak pretty loudly to me.

 

If this team is in the tank early, I would suspect we'll see them go through a number of arms at the major league level and it's entirely possible they'll give Suter a shot ahead of some of the more heralded arms if only to see if what he's done in the minors translates to the majors and to save those guys control years. You are right that they should cut bait on Garza, but if Peralta's having a rebound type year, they can wait until next offseason for the best deal. Suter's leash won't be long though and if and when he does make it up, he'll have to perform from the get go.

[Jenkins5]

If this team is in the tank early, I would suspect we'll see them go through a number of arms at the major league level and it's entirely possible they'll give Suter a shot ahead of some of the more heralded arms if only to see if what he's done in the minors translates to the majors and to save those guys control years. You are right that they should cut bait on Garza, but if Peralta's having a rebound type year, they can wait until next offseason for the best deal. Suter's leash won't be long though and if and when he does make it up, he'll have to perform from the get go.

 

Hard to see him getting a shot. A lot would need to go his way. Brewers have already gave Davies, Lopez, Wagner, Houser, Pena (who is still younger than Suter) opportunities to pitch at MLB level. Hader will be high on the list. He seems to be in a pretty tough spot. I mean if you want a left who are picking? One of the top lefties and prospects in all the MILB or a 26/27 year old control pitcher? Like Briggs said, he will not get a long look if he gets one at all.

 

By Brent Suter being #1 to start next season (2017), that means our #1 prospect will be 27 (turning 28 late into the season). At what age does a player stop being considered at top tier prospect?

[clancyphile]

If this team is in the tank early, I would suspect we'll see them go through a number of arms at the major league level and it's entirely possible they'll give Suter a shot ahead of some of the more heralded arms if only to see if what he's done in the minors translates to the majors and to save those guys control years. You are right that they should cut bait on Garza, but if Peralta's having a rebound type year, they can wait until next offseason for the best deal. Suter's leash won't be long though and if and when he does make it up, he'll have to perform from the get go.

 

Hard to see him getting a shot. A lot would need to go his way. Brewers have already gave Davies, Lopez, Wagner, Houser, Pena (who is still younger than Suter) opportunities to pitch at MLB level. Hader will be high on the list. He seems to be in a pretty tough spot. I mean if you want a left who are picking? One of the top lefties and prospects in all the MILB or a 26/27 year old control pitcher? Like Briggs said, he will not get a long look if he gets one at all.

 

By Brent Suter being #1 to start next season (2017), that means our #1 prospect will be 27 (turning 28 late into the season). At what age does a player stop being considered at top tier prospect?

 

I think it may depend on the player. A control pitcher may have a lengthy career. Someone who relies on athletic prowess might fall off drastically. 2016 is a lost year. So why start Hader's clock so soon?

[Jenkins5]

So a different way to look at this question I think is at the end of 2016, not including trades & drafties, who are the top 5 at each position.

 

By end of season, players will be in 1 of 3 tiers, 1,2, or 3.

 

Tear 1: MLB Starter projection, could make MLB impact. These are the frontline guys who should be at least in mix for top 100 prospects or top 10 at their position by seasons end.

 

Tier 2: Look like Major League players but more of role players or bench type guys. Never will be Top 100 prospects but should at least earn their way up the ladder to get an opportunity.

 

Tier 3: AAAA players who may get a cup of coffee here or there but most like will never be contributors. Some of the players (OF in particular) may be too young with not enough stand out tools yet to put them into Tier 2.

 

1B

Tier 1

1: Tyrone Perry- If he is able to get his body back into shape, his approach at the plate & power are second to none in our system at his position. He is older than most his age, this is his age 20 season (not 19 like most high school drafties). Due to this and his advanced approach, I could very well see him at Wisconsin to start the season.

 

Tier 2

2. David Denson He still only in his year 21 season! With high hopes the last two seasons, he has not delivered. Hopes are now he is out of the closet and his personal life is out in the open & not a worry, he will finally break out the way we have hoped. With a good Spring, A+ would surprise me. They are in need of talent badly, Perry will force his way onto T-Rats. We have to believe he will eventually breakout, if he doesn’t this year….my hopes for him will be dropping greatly.

 

3. Garrett Cooper- He should be the AAA 1B this year, he is too old for AA and proved worth after replacing Nick Ramirez as start soon after being called up. He is a 6'6 Lyle Overbay who still has the opportunity to hit for some power as he starts to hit his mid 20's

 

Tier 3

4. Nicol Valderry- At 19, he will get his 1st taste of Stateside baseball. He seems like he has the tools to be a very good prospect to watch out for. He is not outstanding, but he had hit for good average, shown signs of some power, and ability to get on base.

 

5. Alan Sharky- Gold glove defense over at 1st base & his love for taking walks is his calling card. Needs to improve other aspects of his offensive game, he is in age 22 season and should be in BC. This would not be an issue with Denson since, they have a DH and Denson does get put in OF a fair amount. Sharky's defense makes him hard to take of diamond.

 

* Nick Ramirez started out AA well after repeating, then dropped off, then was pretty much replaced towards of the end of the season and in playoffs.

 

 

2B

Tier 1

1. Franley Mallen- Like many I was a little discouraged that he was held back in the the DSL but it ended up being on of the best things for him. Defensively he had to move off SS which is fine but his bat really shined as he improved a lot. That is what you look for with these kids is the jumps they make every year. He over doubled his extra base hits. His power was far more than I expected from him. He takes walks as well. He still has to make more contact but I think he starts out in Helena and has a big year!

 

Tier 2

2. Tucker Neuhaus- Can you believe he still doesn't even turn 21 until June? His defense is top notch, he was voted top defensive 2B in MWL. I think the move to 2B takes a lot of pressure off his bat as well. He can still play 3B if needed. His bat has begun to shown signs of life. Have to remember, he has always been below the average league by a good amount. Some guys just take a little longer. If he repeats Wisconsin, I think his bat will break out....if moved to BC, he will hang in the .240s again

 

3. Javier Bethencourt- Will most likely play SS in Biloxi this season while McFarland plays 2B (which is better for him and his future). He will be one of the youngest players in the Southern League but he has an opportunity like Arcia to breakout a little bit this year. Offensively, they have pretty comparable skill sets (in a poor mans way). Neither bb or k very often. They have advanced contact stills. More pop than you would think they would, and both have always played vs much older competition. I would not be shocked to see him hit .285/.325/.375 ish with 6-7 HR's 25 doubles 5 triples 10 Sbs. Ceiling isn't has high as Neuhaus but could be a good player

 

4. Chris McFarland- He is about a well rounded and solid as they come. He doesn't have many glaring flaws (needs to walk more), issue is he also doesn't have too many plus tools either. He is just overall a good ball players. He will be in Biloxi, will produce as usual. He really could be a solid big league player. His upside hasn't shown to be stellar but he is a guy who could find a role as a utility player or average every day 2B.

 

Tier 3

5. George Iskenderian- Wish he hadn't got hurt. Appears to be a candidate to skip over Wisconsin to BC. College bat that I think could be a big tool for him. Interested to see how he does.

 

SS

Tier 1

1. Orlando Arcia- No need to talk about, hopefully he wins use a few Gold Gloves while hitting .300 or more with some pop at SS.

 

2. Gilbert Lara- I will not put Gatewood in this list because there is almost zero chance he sticks at SS. He is 6’5 and will fill out to be 215-225 is my guess. Lara on other hand at least has the possibility to stick. He has all the makings to be a star. He may end up at 3B, he as a cannon for an arm. 2B could be a possibility if for some reason he got blocked at 3B (like Baez). His bat would be elite for 2B if he develops right.

 

Tier 2

3. Ignacio Otano- He very well could be next in line for our sleeper international SS following Escobar & Arcia. At 18 he had 20 doubles and slashed .320/.360/.460 in DSL to go with 17 steals. A big rookie ball season in his age 19 season could really help him out.

 

4. Yadiel Rivera- He has continued to grow and impress. We know his future looks to be more of a utility player in the MLB but he can give you outstanding defense at 2B/SS/3B while still producing a little bit on offense.

 

Tier 3

5. Blake Allemand- Was a college senior who is a good ball player. He will start in A+ or maybe even in AA. He will be 24 at the end of the season already so he really needs to come out playing to prove he is a legit prospect.

 

3B

Tier 1

1.Jake Gatewood is definitely the biggest boom or bust prospect at 3B or maybe in our system. This season he can take a giant step or fall off the map and start to be written off if he doesn’t start to make more contact. A big year could vault him into a top 100 prospect.

 

Tier 2

2.Nathan Orf- Undrafted, unheralded, undersized, but yet all he does is produce. He has showed that he is a man who could be a a great MLB utility guy.

 

Tier 3

3. Jose Cuas- He is a big wild card. He has a lot of unrefined tools and a bat that carries some pop. By end of the year he will can boom or flame out. Interesting to watch out for though.

 

4. Sthervin Matos- His bat can be load. He can pack a punch. He can also really hit except last season he fell into a slump he never could dig himself out of. BC in his age 22 season will be a big year for him to prove himself.

 

5. Taylor Brennan- Out of BC to Biloxi will make a world of difference for him as he can make a big difference this season with where he stands as a prospect. He is 24 this season. Make or break year.

 

C

Tier 1

1. Jose Sibrian- Never before have the Brewers spent big money on an international catcher, but did just that for top 30 prospect, Jose Sibrian with a 550k signing bonus. He was in the states for instructional ball and could be a sign he is already in the states & ready. If they do indeed jump him from signing to Arizona, that is saying a lot about the young man. If he performs well at 17, his star can rise.

 

Tier 2

2. Dustin Houle- Now healthy can quickly moved up to BC where outside of the inability to walk, he performed very well. I would not be shocked if he started out in AA to separate him and Leal. Seems like he has been a Brewer forever but he is only in his age 22 season. I believe he is our top ceiling catcher A-AAA. His will be a big year for him to prove he can be a legit catching prospect.

 

3. Carlos Leal- Had great season last year in two ways. 1) he was one of the few bright spots on the Wisconsin offense. 2) he did a great job working with that talented A pitching stff. It would be wish to keep him with those pitchers in A+. He made a very smoke transition from Pitcher to Catcher.

 

Tier 3

4. Johel Atencio: After a good first showing in DSL league at 17, Johel was to play at Arizona last season before injuries shut him down for the season. Now 19, Atencio offers strong hitting skills where he makes a lot of contact. He doesn’t walk much but he also doesn’t K much. He was 10bb to 19ks in 232 PA’s in 2014. Power was what you’d expect out of a 17 year old catcher, as his iso was .065, & he slugged .355. He had 11 doubles and 1 HR. Overall, him not playing last year hurt but he appears to have a good offensive make up that could make him a strong catching prospect.

 

5. Zach Taylor - An unimpressive first 96 PA for the young 15th round pick last year. The bright spots though was he BB’d nearly 14% of his ABs and finished the season stronger by hitting .242 over his last 10. K’s were a big issue. You always hope that a young catcher can figure it out. None of the guys at the higher levels do I see really raising their stock.

 

* By now, most of them are what they are. Weisenberg is the same prospect he has been for awhile. McCall is already 24 years old and was in A ball. I will roll my dice on one of these last three 20 & under guys to make a big jump in to 2016.

 

OF

Honestly 3-7 could be mixed and matched in any which way. think a very high percent of people will have a large variation in order.

 

Tier 1

1.Maverick Phillips- Clark still has much to prove, Phillips has already proved it. Not much debate who is our top OF prospect. By the end of the year he should be getting the call to be our CF of the future.

 

2.Trent Clark- While there can be a lot of of discussion about 3-7 on list, Clark is so complete of a player with with very little glaring holes in his game. He is simply a ball player. His future will most likely someday end up as a starting LF but could still play all 3 if needed. He is a professional hitter who could surge up all list this season if he continues to grow and improve.

 

3.Monte Harrison: To me, Harrison will take the Brinson jump in his 2nd go around with Wisconsin. He has all the tools you’d want. Now he will not be so overmatched, he should return to his 12BB% to 20 or less k%. For an A ball player with his skill, set, that is very good. He will hit for more power this season and steal 30+ bases. The biggest difference between him and 4-7 is he has everything you are looking for. Others like Demi can’t walk, Coulter isn’t the type of athlete, Taylor doesn’t the pop, Reed doesn’t have the projection of Harrison or ceiling.

 

4.Clinton Coulter- I really believe in Coulter. 2012 was outstanding, 13’ was a lost year full of injuries, overmatched showing, and never was able to get right. In 14’ he was a monster. In 15’ considering the league, he didn’t have a good season but wasn’t as bad as it appeared. I think in 16’ playing in Biloxi and Southern league which is more neutral setting between Pitcher and Hitter, he will be back to his usual ways. Hard to see him not launching 25 HRs or more. His BB% is usually around 8%...I hope it is more in the 12-14% range while keeping his Ks under 20% (which he has been around his whole career so far. He still managed a wRC+ of 124.

 

5.Demi Orimoloye- I think Demi will stay back in Helena to help refine his approach at the plate this season. Currently the number of OF’s who could be in Wisconsin is outrageous. Demi has almost it all except, he did not show any ability to take walks or limit Ks. With a 2% : 27% BB% to K%, it goes to show there is a lot of work to do. He has a good hit tool, he has a good speed tool, he has outstanding power tool, his defense has a lot of potential but the one thing that will hold him back is approach at the plate. Sky is limit if he figures that aspect out.

 

Tier 2

6.Michael Reed- Really if Reed finally tapped into his power, he’d be much high on the list and look like a legit corner OF prospect. His power numbers with 47 extra base hits was a good start but with how strong he is, he has to find a way to tap into the over the fence power.

 

7.Tyrone Taylor- Many of us lose sight in just how young Tyrone is. We say even younger Arcia dominate and expected the same from Taylor. He kind of fell on his face a bit. He still managed to hit .260 but outside of that….not much to brag about. He is a guy who won’t k much (10% or less) but doesn’t walk a ton (usually around 7%). His steals really dropped as he was only 10 of 16. His power has not developed at all yet as we had hoped. Taylor must come out and rebound in his 2nd go around otherwise he is at risk to flaming out & free falling for 2017.

 

 

Tier 3

8. Brandon Diaz- He is often a forgotten man in our loaded OF. His injury didn’t help his cause at all as well. However, maybe he shouldn’t be so overlooked. His K’s are too high and probably his biggest weakness. He sits between 20-24% so far in his young career but that is workable. Impressive aspect of him is he gets on base by walking 13-14% of the time. Not to mention he is a littler guy but has surprising pop that has ranged between .10 to .17 ISO while slugging .360-.460. Moreover, he has stole over 20 bases a season without ever playing a full season. He had an absolutely brutal April. All of a sudden in May, while hits were not falling in there, he slashed .192/.373/.370. June he was player of the month slashing .311/.402/.473. In July before his season was ended he slashed .292/.395/.362. Overall, over those three months he slashed .265/.390/.401 for .791 OPS! I believe he will be an anchor of the BC line-up and his approach at the plate should help him be successful in the environment.

 

9.Joantgel Segovia- He may take a few weeks to adjust to a new level but the all he is going to do is hit .360. His hit tool is outstanding and will carry his as long as he keeps hitting. Other tools are not great, no power to be seen but when someone has a hit tool as Joantgel does, that is what matters most.

 

10. Victor Roache- Ultimately when I think of Roache, all I see is a poor mans Khris Davis. He doesn’t walk as Davis did in the minors nor does he hit for as much average as Davis. The power potential however is similar. Roache is 24 now and needs to make a lot of improvements this season in order to not drop out of consideration in the organization. At best I see him as Khris Davis in MLB but he has a lot to prove before that can happen.

 

*Troy Stokes, Malik Collymore, and Carlos Belonis are all in mix for 8-10. Segovia’s hit tool forces him on list, Roache in hoping he figures it out with all that power put him on the list, and Diaz is very talent overrated player in this organization.

 

SP

Tier 1

1.Jorge Lopez- Every year all he does is get better, stronger, and more dominant. In BC we saw signs in the 1st half of the pitcher he could be. In Biloxi, it all came together in such a game after game dominant way. If he keeps improving like this, pitching 93-95 with great curve and a soon to be above average change, he could be what we lost in Yo.

 

2. Josh Hader- No secret from anyone who has ever read on of my post since the trade, Hader is my favorite player in our system. At worst he is a dominant set up or close. At best he is a dominant #1 or #2 lefty in line with Sale and MadBum. It is already hard to hit a pitcher who has as much deception as Hader, even if he only threw 89-91….well now Hader is out there throwing it 94-97. Good luck. His K/9 has always been outstanding. His opp. BA has always been outstanding. Control and secondary pitches are the only knock on him. In AFL, his secondary stuff was rather impressive.

 

3.Kodi Mederois- A close look at Kodi’s numbers and they are impressive. He played season of A ball at 19 which is even more impressive. BB’s and control are his biggest issue. Much of this is due to him being a thrower more than a pitcher as of right now. He has nasty, nasty, nasty stuff but doesn’t know how to pitch it yet. If he can harness that, watch out! He had a 2.96 FIP, he k/9’s over 9 and nearly 24 percent of batters faced. BB/9 of nearly 4 and BB% of 10 MUST decrease. If he can start to control his nasty and lively stuff, he could become a top prospect.

 

4. Cody Ponce- Massive man with powerful stuff. He was simply dominant after signing with the Brewers and had Brewer Nation and scouts raving during instructions while constantly hitting 95-98mph. He is much more than a power arm, he has control over his pitches and attacks hitters. He is an early favorite to be a rapid riser in the system this year. He should start in A+, be more surprised to NOT see him in AA by mid season over surprised to see him promoted.

 

5. Devin Williams - Williams missed the beginning of the season this year but he made pretty good strides this year. He is a talented young pitch who has all the talent he needs but has yet to really consistently show up. I see early Lopez in him. If he can take another jump this season, it will be huge for him. This was the 1st season his WHIP was down from the 1.4’s to the low 1.2’s. This due the combination of reduced walks and hits. After signing he he was tough to hit but walked a ton. In 14’ he greatly reduced BB’s but was hit pretty hard. Now finally in 15’ he regressed a little in BB’s but was much harder to hit.

 

6. Marcos Diplan- Young pitcher who will ultimately be the key piece of the Yovani Gallardo trade. He may not be the biggest guy but he has the arm and stuff to be a frontline pitcher.

 

7. Nathan Kirby- He won’t pitch at all this season but he does have frontline. Hopefully he comes back from TJ surgery in 2017 and carves up hitters with his nasty slider

 

8. Miguel Diaz- Scouts began to rave about Diaz after his first showing in Arizona. Injuries have side tracked him but after coming back from last season, he showed why we should be excited. 10/2 K/BB per 9 ratio. 28.5% to 6% K to BB%. 2.93 FIP. He did have some rust as he did give up a hit an inning but overall it will be exciting to see what he can do in Wisconsin given a full season.

 

Tier 2

9. Adrian Houser- Big, strong, power arm who gets loads of groundballs. Seems to fit the average Brewer pitcher. He will be in the mix for time in Milwaukee as starter or out of the pen. Overall, I don’t foresee him as a front like guy like the 1st 8 guys could but he does remind me of Jimmy Nelson a little bit.

 

10. Taylor Williams- Praised last season as on of the top pitchers in the system at big league camp. Players raved, coaches raved, and those who watched him raved. Seemed like he would be in the mix for a call up at some point. TJ Surgery killed that and in 2016 we will be very limited to as to how much he will be able to pitch.

 

11. Tyler Wagner-He just performs. He struggled with after call ups but overall he is your typical big, solid, strong, workhorse pitcher. He has a lot of competion for SP but he was a college closer and could offer us a solid bullpen arm

 

12. Jorge Ortega- Pin point arm, commands every pitch he has. If he learned to miss a bat here or there he could rise but as of now, his lack of Ks is very worrisome.

 

13. Trey Supak- Former 2nd round pick and top 15 ranked prospect in a deep Pirates organization. He has struggled thus far in limited inning but minus ER’s & ERA his numbers were promising. He offered a 7.3/1.6 K/9 to BB/9 a 19% to 4% K% to BB%. He had a 3.55 FIP. Now he was very hittable which lead to the earned runs however he has the arm to be much better. Another member of the Wisconsin rotation to be excited for.

 

14.David Burkhalter- One of the most overlooked pitching prospect in the system. Along with Ventura, these two can compare toe to toe with Mederois and Williams. Burkhalter’s biggest issue was an awful start and then when he is off, he he pays for it. He had to many blow up games. Overall, still, he finished year with a 22% to 5% K% to BB% & a K/9 to BB/9 of 8 to 2. 3.51 FIP.

 

15. Angel Ventura- Like Burkhalter, Ventura is highly underrated. He will be 23 in April which will make him the old man in the BC staff that very well could be Ponce, Mederois, Williams, Ventura, and Burkhalter. If he performs, he is another guy I can see making his way to AA before seasons end.

 

*Wang, Woodruff, Suter, Olczak, are higher level guys to watch. Young teenagers who could increase into the top 15 would be Nash Walters, Karsten Lindell, Gentry Fortuno, Danny Missaki, Carlos Herrera, Carlos Luna, Fredy Peralta, Nelson Hernandez.

[Jenkins5]

Based off my tiers and such, it kind of falls like this, We are so deep doing a top 50 is tough, many of the guys in the 30's seem as though they should be in late teens or twenties. Some come in too low such as Michael Reed.

 

Top 50

1. Orlando Arcia

2. Maverick Phillips

3. Jorge Lopez

4. Josh Hader

5. Trent Clark

6. Gilbert Lara

7. Kodi Mederois

8. Monte Harrison

9. Cody Ponce

10. Devin Williams

11. Clint Coulter

12. Demi Orimoloye

13. Marcos Diplan

14. Jake Gatewood

15. Michael Reed

16. Tyrone Perry

17. Nathan Kirby

18. Franley Mallen

19. Miguel Diaz

20. Tyrone Taylor

21. Jose Sibrian

22. Adrian Houser

23. Ignacio Otano

24. Tucker Neuhaus

25. Taylor Williams

26. Yadiel Rivera

27. Dustin Houle

28. Brandon Diaz

29. Tyler Wagner

30. Javier Bethencourt

31. Trey Supak

32. Joantgel Segovia

33 David Burkhalter

35. Malik Collymore

36. Chris McFarland

37. David Denson

38. Angel Ventura

39. Victor Roache

40. Carlos Leal

41. Garrett Cooper

42. Nash Walter

43. Carlos Herrera

44. Troy Stokes

45. Carlos Belonis

46. Wei-Cheng Wang

47. Freddie Peralta

48. Johel Atencio

49. Jose Cuas

50. Nicol Valderrey

[Eye Black]

3.Kodi Mederois- A close look at Kodi’s numbers and they are impressive. He played season of A ball at 19 which is even more impressive. BB’s and control are his biggest issue. Much of this is due to him being a thrower more than a pitcher as of right now. He has nasty, nasty, nasty stuff but doesn’t know how to pitch it yet. If he can harness that, watch out! He had a 2.96 FIP, he k/9’s over 9 and nearly 24 percent of batters faced. BB/9 of nearly 4 and BB% of 10 MUST decrease. If he can start to control his nasty and lively stuff, he could become a top prospect.

This reminded me of something I thought about recently. Justus Sheffield has been generating some prospect buzz this off-season. Jim Callis mentioned on Twitter tonight that he was the Indians next closest SP just outside of the top 100. Kodi and Justus are less than two weeks apart in age (will both be 20 in May). Both were left-handed high school pitchers drafted in the first round in 2014. Sheffield is listed at 5-10 according to B-Ref and Medeiros at 6-2. Both pitched this past season in the Midwest League. Based on the statistical comparisons, they each experienced success in different ways.

 

Comparison of the two based purely on last year's stats in the Midwest League:

 

Medeiros: IP- 93.1, Hits- 79, BB- 40, K- 94, HR- 0, ERA- 4.44, FIP- 2.96, WHIP- 1.275, H/9- 7.6, BB/9- 3.9, K/9- 9.1

 

Sheffield: IP - 127.2, Hits- 135, BB- 38, K- 138, HR- 8, ERA- 3.31, FIP- 2.99, WHIP- 1.355, H/9- 9.5, BB/9- 2.7, K/9- 9.7

 

Obviously Kodi needs to cut down on the walks moving forward and Justus pitched more innings and was a strikeout machine. Still, beyond the walk differential, Kodi appears to fare better when it comes to allowing hitters to make contact. Kodi gave up zero home runs and held batters well below a hit per inning. While I would expect to see the hit ratio go up some as Kodi throws more balls in the zone, it has been encouraging that guys aren't squaring him up all that well. Both pitchers had what most would consider successful age 19 seasons, but curious at this stage which type of pitcher others think had a better overall season?

[SRB]

Medeiros will be #1 as I've been arguing for some time (hopefully somewhat more credibly than putting Brent Sutter #1, no offense clancy ). I think Trent Clark is the real deal and will also be considered an elite prospect (top-20?) by season's end

[MrTPlush]

Medeiros will be #1 as I've been arguing for some time (hopefully somewhat more credibly than putting Brent Sutter #1, no offense clancy ). I think Trent Clark is the real deal and will also be considered an elite prospect (top-20?) by season's end

 

Kodi Medeiros is underrated by Brewers fans and I find that pretty surprising. You would think people would get excited about a guy giving up no homeruns and striking out over a batter an inning in his first real taste of pro ball. Not to mention he was 19 playing in A ball and is left handed. Heck he also was really solid in not giving up many hits. His walk rate is a bit high, but nothing I would be overly concerned about. There are a lot of players that struggle with control issues when they first get into pro ball.

 

I would be a bit surprised if he doesn't push himself onto some Top 100 lists before 2017. If he ends up in A+ he should put up some really nice stats.

[SRB]

Medeiros will be #1 as I've been arguing for some time (hopefully somewhat more credibly than putting Brent Sutter #1, no offense clancy ). I think Trent Clark is the real deal and will also be considered an elite prospect (top-20?) by season's end

 

Kodi Medeiros is underrated by Brewers fans and I find that pretty surprising. You would think people would get excited about a guy giving up no homeruns and striking out over a batter an inning in his first real taste of pro ball. Not to mention he was 19 playing in A ball and is left handed. Heck he also was really solid in not giving up many hits. His walk rate is a bit high, but nothing I would be overly concerned about. There are a lot of players that struggle with control issues when they first get into pro ball.

 

I would be a bit surprised if he doesn't push himself onto some Top 100 lists before 2017. If he ends up in A+ he should put up some really nice stats.

 

Agreed! 19 years old, his ground ball rates were ridiculous, and strong strikeout numbers on top of that.

 

Anecdotally, there is a pattern if you look at guys with elite stuff who go on to become frontline starters where they struggle with BB/9 rates comparable to Medeiros's at the same age and level. If they're good enough, they often develop their control pretty fast as shoot up the prospect rankings. If you're lucky, you end up with Clayton Kershaw.

[TigerUppercut]

Medeiros will be #1 as I've been arguing for some time (hopefully somewhat more credibly than putting Brent Sutter #1, no offense clancy ). I think Trent Clark is the real deal and will also be considered an elite prospect (top-20?) by season's end

 

Kodi Medeiros is underrated by Brewers fans and I find that pretty surprising. You would think people would get excited about a guy giving up no homeruns and striking out over a batter an inning in his first real taste of pro ball. Not to mention he was 19 playing in A ball and is left handed. Heck he also was really solid in not giving up many hits. His walk rate is a bit high, but nothing I would be overly concerned about. There are a lot of players that struggle with control issues when they first get into pro ball.

 

I would be a bit surprised if he doesn't push himself onto some Top 100 lists before 2017. If he ends up in A+ he should put up some really nice stats.

 

Agreed! 19 years old, his ground ball rates were ridiculous, and strong strikeout numbers on top of that.

 

Anecdotally, there is a pattern if you look at guys with elite stuff who go on to become frontline starters where they struggle with BB/9 rates comparable to Medeiros's at the same age and level. If they're good enough, they often develop their control pretty fast as shoot up the prospect rankings. If you're lucky, you end up with Clayton Kershaw.

 

I'd happily settle for Chris Sale.

[jjfanec]

Medeiros will be #1 as I've been arguing for some time (hopefully somewhat more credibly than putting Brent Sutter #1, no offense clancy ). I think Trent Clark is the real deal and will also be considered an elite prospect (top-20?) by season's end

 

Kodi Medeiros is underrated by Brewers fans and I find that pretty surprising. You would think people would get excited about a guy giving up no homeruns and striking out over a batter an inning in his first real taste of pro ball. Not to mention he was 19 playing in A ball and is left handed. Heck he also was really solid in not giving up many hits. His walk rate is a bit high, but nothing I would be overly concerned about. There are a lot of players that struggle with control issues when they first get into pro ball.

 

I would be a bit surprised if he doesn't push himself onto some Top 100 lists before 2017. If he ends up in A+ he should put up some really nice stats.

 

I honestly think part of the reason some underrate Kodi is he wasnt the guy many wanted the Brewers to pick at that spot. Right or wrong that will taint people's view of him until he proves them wrong. His lack of control will feed the idea that he was the wrong pick. I dont know near enough about the draft to know who the Brewers should pick so I stay cautiously optimistic on Kodi.

[logan82]

I think it is the weird delivery and the walks. The general lack of control is concerning.

[SRB]

The general lack of control is concerning.

 

A 3.9 BB/9 for a teenager in A-ball is very far from a "general lack of control" (particularly when you consider that he did not give up a home run all season)

 

To the earlier question, I think it is 100% because when he was initially drafted it was a "reach" based on pundits and internet rankings. Nevermind that he's from Hawaii and barely any of the pundits had really seen him pitch in an extended look.

[logan82]

From what I have heard he does not control the ball well in the zone.