Justin Upton to the Tigers 6yrs/ $132.75M with an opt-out after Year 2

[BrewedInMilwaukee]

Per MLB Trade Rumors. Thoughts? http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/01/tigers-sign-justin-upton.html

[pacopete4]

Upton for that money? Craziness. Good player don't get me wrong, just doesn't seem like a $20+mil per year guy.

[BrewedInMilwaukee]

For the money, I'd much rather have Jason Heyward. You could also make the argument that you'd rather have Braun with his contract, provided Upton doesn't opt-out.

[jerichoholicninja]

He'll opt out. Good deal for Detroit.

[trwi7]

I think this is an okay deal. Really good bat, still young, even if he opts in, he'll likely have 4-5 prime years in the 6 years of the contract.

[jjkoestler]

That Tigers lineup is scary.

 

I would hate to be a Padres fan as losing J-Up only netted them a 3rd round pick.

[MrTPlush]

That Tigers lineup is scary.

 

I would hate to be a Padres fan as losing J-Up only netted them a 3rd round pick.

 

Padres get the normal sandwhich pick after the 1st and before the 2nd round. You may have forgotten but the days of actually getting the teams pick are long gone.

[jjkoestler]

That Tigers lineup is scary.

 

I would hate to be a Padres fan as losing J-Up only netted them a 3rd round pick.

 

Padres get the normal sandwhich pick after the 1st and before the 2nd round. You may have forgotten but the days of actually getting the teams pick are long gone.

 

Hmmm... MLB Trade Rumors and Baseball America disagree with you.

 

"By signing Upton, the Tigers will surrender their second draft pick of the offseason. Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, but the team already parted with its second-round pick to add right-hander Jordan Zimmermann to the rotation, so they’ll forfeit their third-round pick — currently projected to be the 85th in the draft, per Baseball America — to sign Upton."

[MadScientist]

That Tigers lineup is scary.

 

I would hate to be a Padres fan as losing J-Up only netted them a 3rd round pick.

 

Padres get the normal sandwhich pick after the 1st and before the 2nd round. You may have forgotten but the days of actually getting the teams pick are long gone.

 

Hmmm... MLB Trade Rumors and Baseball America disagree with you.

 

"By signing Upton, the Tigers will surrender their second draft pick of the offseason. Detroit’s No. 9 overall selection is protected under the collective bargaining agreement, but the team already parted with its second-round pick to add right-hander Jordan Zimmermann to the rotation, so they’ll forfeit their third-round pick — currently projected to be the 85th in the draft, per Baseball America — to sign Upton."

Detroit loses the pick, but SD doesn't get it. They just get the sandwich pick.

[1992casey]

MadScientist has it nailed.

 

A team signing a free agent that requires compensation gives up a draft pick, and that team's turn is skipped. Teams receiving compensation gain a sandwich pick.

 

The pick that's given up no longer goes directly to the team who's lost the free agent. That avoids situations like the one that occurred when the Brewers lost Sabathia. Because the Yankees also signed the only free agent who was rated higher than CC, the comp pick that went to the Brewers was an entire round later.

 

MLB Trade Rumors and Baseball America didn't get it wrong; they only offered half of the explanation. They explained the consequences for the Tigers but were silent on what the Padres gained.

[Eye Black]

The Perfect Game has an updated draft order after each free agent signing that has draft compensation implications....

 

UPDATED DRAFT ORDER

[pogokat]

compiled by our very own colbyjack (patrick ebert)

[Polish Falcons]

It seems that this makes Braun's 5/$100 contract look pretty good.

[monty57]

Upton and Khris Davis are the same age. Here are their 3-year stat line splits:

 

Upton .262 avg / .344 OBP / .470 SLG / .814 OPS 82 HR

Davis .250 avg / .315 OBP / .494 SLG / .809 OPS 60 HR

 

Davis has had less playing time during this period (2013 was his first year in the majors, and he split time with Parra last year), so Upton has more value, but if Upton is worth $22M/year, then Davis is a very valuable commodity.

[jerichoholicninja]

Upton and Khris Davis are the same age. Here are their 3-year stat line splits:

 

Upton .262 avg / .344 OBP / .470 SLG / .814 OPS 82 HR

Davis .250 avg / .315 OBP / .494 SLG / .809 OPS 60 HR

 

Davis has had less playing time during this period (2013 was his first year in the majors, and he split time with Parra last year), so Upton has more value, but if Upton is worth $22M/year, then Davis is a very valuable commodity.

 

I was going to post about how I disagreed with you but then I looked at some numbers. Upton has played in some pitcher friendly parks in Atlanta and San Diego. Looking at their OPS+ over those 3 years it's actually closer than I would have thought. Upton's is 126 vs Davis's 119. I also would have guessed Upton's defense is much superior to Davis but based off of BREF's dWar Upton averages -.4 for his career to Davis -.6.

 

It makes you wonder how much Davis would get if he were a free agent this offseason and how much should he really bring back in a trade.

[logan82]

I would take the OBP heavy OPS over the SLG heavy OPS.

[brewcrewdue80]

This is something that will just show why Lucroy is to be valued so much. Upton's previous MVP caliber of a season the year Braun won it is still fresh on a team's mind. Let's put some of Melvin Upton's troubles as a reason why Justin didn't make as successful stats in Atlanta. He had an over 1 OPS the team's first quarter of the season but Melvin was sitting at a putrid .476

Then he goes to the pitcher haven that is San Diego and his stats are going to reflect that.

 

Not surprised by the amount at all. This is Ryan Braun in another body.

[Boomer5]

It seems that this makes Braun's 5/$100 contract look pretty good.

 

Yes it does and makes him all the more tradable.

[monty57]

I would take the OBP heavy OPS over the SLG heavy OPS.

 

I would as well, but the ultimate value of a player is what they can receive on the open market, so if Upton is worth $22M/year, then Davis should be worth what? 18M?

 

Over the next four seasons, Upton is going to make around $88M, while Davis will probably make around $10M. There is a lot of excess value in that, and therefore, teams should give up a lot in terms of prospects in order to get him. Certainly a lot more than I would have guessed prior to doing the quick comparison to Upton for my earlier post.

 

Davis doesn't have a real long track record, so in an ideal world, we could trade Braun now (I agree with Polish Falcons and Boomer5 that deals like this make Braun more tradeable). Then we could put Santana in RF, give Davis everyday play in LF, hoping he has another .800+ OPS with 30+ HR, making him extremely valuable, either playing alongside Phillips, Arcia, etc, or trading him for younger players to add to the "core."

 

We have Arcia and Phillips as our standout prospects. If Braun and Lucroy could each bring back another guy in that age/talent range, and then in a year get another one for Davis, well.. that would be a pretty good core of talent to build around for the next decade, with a lot of talent in the low minors that should add to that core as they develop.

[logan82]

I would love to see Davis traded if for no other reason than to give Santana playing time.