2016 International Signing Thread

[reillymcshane]

I see that mlb.com just updated their Top 30 International prospects for 2016 today, along with predictions on where each will sign:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=int

 

 

Brewers favored to sign two guys - the 29th and 30th players:

 

Pablo Abreu - #29

Hometown: Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

Position: OF

Age: 16

DOB: 10/19/1999

Bats: R Throws: R

Height: 5'11'' Weight: 175

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 50 | Arm: 50 | Field: 60

 

Abreu has the right combination of tools to make a solid package. He's not known for his raw power, but he's an aggressive hitter with a knack for making contact in games and driving the ball into the gaps. He has shown the ability to turn on pitches and there's the belief that he will develop more power with maturity.

 

On defense, Abreu has a solid arm and the defensive actions to stay in center field. That said, he's versatile enough to change positions if needed and there's a thought that he ends up as a corner outfielder.

 

Abreu showed off his skills at the MLB International Prospect Showcase in February, racking up a pair of hits and scoring a run in three games. He also displayed plate discipline with a pair of walks. The Brewers are the favorite to sign Abreu. He played in the International Prospect League and is trained by Amauris Nina.

 

Jean Carlos Carmona #30

Hometown: Puerta Plata, Dominican Republic

Position: 3B

Age: 16

DOB: 10/31/1999

Bats: S Throws: R

Height: 6'1'' Weight: 183 lb.

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 60 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50

 

Carmona is a switch-hitter who has shown a consistent approach and displayed power from both sides of the plate. Scouts like his strong athletic body and project him to fill out even more as he matures. What's more, he's viewed as a plus runner and has the potential to be a base stealer with proper instruction.

 

Carmona has the arm strength to stay in the middle of the infield and has been praised for his good hands. However, there is a belief that he could move to center field in the future because he might not have the natural defensive actions and body control to be a Major League shortstop down the road. Carmona is trained by Angel Gonzalez and played in the International Prospect League in the Dominican Republic. The Brewers are expected to sign him.

 

Check out the MLB page, which includes video of both guys.

[reillymcshane]

I see that mlb.com just updated their Top 30 International prospects for 2016 today, along with predictions on where each will sign:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=int

Thanks for finding that. FWIW, the Brewers are expected to sign the #29 and #30 ranked guys, Pablo Abreu (OF) and Jean Carlos Carmona (3B). I skimmed through and didn't see any other Brewers mentions.

Braves, Cardinals, Padres and Nationals had lots of mentions.

[reillymcshane]

I see that mlb.com just updated their Top 30 International prospects for 2016 today, along with predictions on where each will sign:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=int

 

Can anyone give a quick run-down on how this whole system works? I understand that their is a spending limit each year, right? And, if a team goes over that limit one year, do they lose the opportunity to sign guys the following year?

 

I guess my big question is: why wouldn't the Brewers just go all-in this year or next year on the international market since we are saving money with our big league payroll being down as much as it is, and our investment in the future right now? I know Mark A is still trying to run a profitable business, but it just seems like the Brewers should try to capitalize on this international system and over-sign for a year?

 

What am I missing here? I admit that I do not have a full grasp of the system, so perhaps I'm way off base.

 

You have the basic idea of how the system works. If you go over, you are subject to penalties, as defined by the following:

 

The CBA lays out penalties for teams that exceed their allotted bonus pool amounts:

 

0-5% overage: MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate.

5-10% overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $500,000 during the following international signing period.

10-15% overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following international signing period.

15%+ overage: (1) MLB taxes the overage at a 100% rate. (2) The offending club loses the right to sign any player to a bonus exceeding $300,000 during the following two international signing periods.

 

So what you suggest - going 'all in' and spending a ton in any one year is a common practice. I think the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs and a couple of other teams did it the last couple of years, so they are non-factors this year. I think, for example, a couple of years ago the Yankees spent around $20M - which then added on an additional $15M+ in penalties - plus a 2-year limitation on international signings. It was a lot of money - $35M+ for a bunch of 16-17 year old kids who are risky investments. But you never know. It's a way for a team with money to burn to quickly re-stock their farm system with a bunch of lottery pick type guys. In my opinion, it's a great move - you just have to have the extra money to spend.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers just need to blow their pool out of the water and sign Kevin Maitan.

[Jenkins5]

Brewers just need to blow their pool out of the water and sign Kevin Maitan.

 

No one is stealing him from Braves. He has been locked in there since he was 14 or 15.... I'd be one of the biggest upsets if he chose to bail on them after this long

[reillymcshane]

Brewers just need to blow their pool out of the water and sign Kevin Maitan.

 

No one is stealing him from Braves. He has been locked in there since he was 14 or 15.... I'd be one of the biggest upsets if he chose to bail on them after this long

But it would be sweet if it happened.

 

The review of him says that some scouts call him a 'once in a generation player'. That's the kind of guy you make a huge play for. If there was any year for Milwaukee to shatter their international spending, it's this year. Our payroll is low (so we have money to divert to int'l signings), there's a great talent to be had, and the move continues to stock the system with more high upside players. Also, there's a chance an international draft may be coming in the near future - meaning any penalties of not signing guys the next few years might end up not applying.

 

It's nice to dream.

[brewcrewdue80]

I see that mlb.com just updated their Top 30 International prospects for 2016 today, along with predictions on where each will sign:

 

http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=int

Thanks for finding that. FWIW, the Brewers are expected to sign the #29 and #30 ranked guys, Pablo Abreu (OF) and Jean Carlos Carmona (3B). I skimmed through and didn't see any other Brewers mentions.

Braves, Cardinals, Padres and Nationals had lots of mentions.

 

Phillies a few as well. Sounds like the Braves will be spending Mucho Dinero. The Reds had a mention of a 6million player for last year who didn't sign and is expected to get more this year. That has to blow them past the allotment. And that's just 1player whom the Padres are to sign 2 ahead of him in the rankings much less the other 4 or 5 they are linked to.

 

There are the #2,4, and 13 on the list not linked to a team currently, though one of them was said was going to announce a signing in Feb and then did not.

 

Cards of course also with 2 players of higher ranking than Brewers. So the surprise would come if the Brewers nab one of the 3 who aren't tied to a team. RHP 20-#2, OF 16-#4, CF/2b 21-#13. So via ages, I'd be more after the 16yr old than the 20/21 yr olds. I'd expect the RHP to ask for quite the amount as he's probably closer to ML ready.

[Crash2303]

so prospect-wise, Abreu and Carmona are essentially Nicolas Pierre & Franly Mallen. (shrug), at least we're doing something, but would love if we made another Lara like splash in the int'l market, especially since this year we've got some extra financial flexibility.

 

when is baseball going to address this vast systematic inequity in the int'l market? I'm tired of seeing things like last year when the dodgers got 3 of the top 10 and cubs got 5 of the top 30, or even more egregious, in 2014 when the NYY signed 9 guys in the top 30, including the #1 & #2 best prospects. between the Red Sox & Yankees that year, they signed 7 of the top 10 prospects available. that's unbelievable- can you imagine infusing even just one of those top guys in our system each year- our top 25 would be ridiculous!

 

not to mention these clubs' obvious advantages in FA as well as int'l free agents, especially from Cuba & Japan. [sarcasm]Competitive Balance[/sarcasm]

[Austin Tatious]

Thanks for mining all this information. Good reads.

 

Since Attanasio has a low MLB payroll, I'd like to see huge investments in recruiting these guys.

 

The bios on these two guys sound fine. I am not too focused on the precise rankings. I mean, how unscientific can it get, when talking about literally 16 year old boys? Unless you're a prodigy, the rankings are hard to give much credence to. I don't think a ranking of say 17 versus 29 is too pertinent. No one has any idea which of these guys will pop and which will stagnate. This is all much more of a crapshoot than, say, the NFL draft which even still has a crapshoot element to it. Orlando Arcia was a huge get through the process but I am not sure how predictable that was when he was 16. I don't recall him being rated at the top. We don't know how Gilbert Lara will come together. His first year in rookie ball was up and down. He has another year of rookie ball starting soon and hopefully he cranks this year.

 

Many of these guys may do fine hitting teenaged fastballs, but when they see pitchers who can control offspeed stuff, some of these guys will fall of a cliff. Some will have trouble moving away from Latin America to the US. Others won't be gym rats or have a motor. Will it be the 17th rated guy or the 29th to emerge, hard to say.

 

I do agree with the idea that the whole international market thing is wholly dysfunctional. The whole factor of drafting 16 year olds is out there to begin with. Then, the way the big market teams exploit it compared with Milwaukee is pathetic. Other than, what, Wily Peralta and Arcia, in recent years we haven't gotten much. Compare us with some other organizations and it is ridiculous.

 

This will likely need to be collectively bargained for. The agents will drive hard on allowing foreigners in because it drops draft values down for players. The 42nd player picked now may become the 60th picked player or whatever, with monetary values going down. So, the Scott Boras types will want a concession back, e.g., higher payouts to draftees to compensate for lower slotting of picks due to the inclusion of foreign players.

 

It needs to be done, though, for competitive balance reasons.

[And That]

Marlins Scout Cuban Outfielder Yadiel Hernandez In Private Workout

 

The Brewers are one of three other teams to be connected with Hernandez. He was #16 on BA's top 20 list of Cuban prospects (subscriber only).

 

Hernandez wouldn’t be a star in the major leagues, but he has a similar skill set to Red Sox outfielder Daniel Nava.

[brewmann04]

Also like to nab a stud but at least this team is getting active.

[ZBTMP]

Yadiel Hernandez Cuban Stats

His last season in Cuba was he hit .369BA/.509OBP/1.045OPS over 369 PA.

 

The Brewers scouted Cuban outfielder Yadiel Hernandez today in a private workout.

-Ben Badler, Tweet

 

Hernandez was recently declared a free agent by Major League Baseball and is free to sign at any time for any amount. He brings with him a career .324/.449/.487 batting line over the life of 2167 pro plate appearances in Cuba and is known for a discerning eye at the plate and excellent contact skills, though he does also possess some modest pop. (Badler recently noted that he felt Hernandez could hit 10 to 15 homers in a big league season.) Hernandez struck out in just 13 percent of his career plate appearances in Cuba and walked in 17.5 percent of his trips to the plate

MLB TRADE RUMORS

[DR28]

I've heard Maitan's deal with the Braves isn't that firm and he could go elsewhere.

[And That]

Narey a mention of the Brewers in Ben Badler's July 2 signing preview (subscription required).

[TheCrew07]

Makes me sad but with so little history with this front office it's difficult to project exactly what they are doing. I don't expect them to blow the pool on one player like they did with Lara every year, I'd prefer 2-3 signings in that 750K range every year, or maybe 1 million+ signing with 3-4 mid tier, or however it shakes out.

 

Basically I want them to spend the full pool allotment each year and I wouldn't mind going over if necessary.

[markedman5]

I wish I knew what it was like to be a fan of a team who cared about the international market.... At least Braves know how to rebuild. Trade top MLB players for top prospects, draft well, and aggressively pursue to international players..... We have been drafting good....sorta trading for prospects, but not spending a dime on international prospects.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/three-teams-will-break-international-bonus-pools-2016/#.VqliB434W4E.mailto

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orlando_Arcia

[patrickgpe]

Gilbert Lara would disagree. The Brewers obviously will never be the spenders the dodgers are, and an international draft is the only way to correct this, but they do take their swings every now and then.

[And That]

Scouting Kevin Maitan And Four Other Top Shortstops For July 2 (subscription required)

 

Once again, nothing Brewers related.

[JDBrewCrew]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-international-prospects-know-july-2/#GCvMt17o3EP4iAQy.97

 

Anything Brewer related in here?

[And That]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-international-prospects-know-july-2/#GCvMt17o3EP4iAQy.97

 

Anything Brewer related in here?

Nope.

[Jenkins5]

Brewers expected to sign more international prospects. Don't have subscription but for those who do, here's the link.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/8-international-prospects-know-july-2/#YDdaWDJxIDdcJIFo.97

[And That]

Brewers expected to sign more international prospects. Don't have subscription but for those who do, here's the link.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/8-international-prospects-know-july-2/#YDdaWDJxIDdcJIFo.97

Just a blurb on Jean Carlos Carmona, previously connected to the Brewers.

[Jenkins5]

Oh that's not very exciting then. How does he sound?

[Eye Black]

The Fangraphs July 2 Sortable Board projects two players to sign with the Brewers, SS/2B Jean Carlos Carmona and OF Pablo Abreu (same players that have been linked to the Brewers previously).

 

For those that want to bypass the article and go straight to the board, here is the LINK.

 

The first thing that stuck out about Jean Carlos Carmona is that his name is a combination of two Dominican players that were implicated in having falsified their ages. Jean Carlos (Batista) chronicled in the movie Pelotero alongside Miguel Sano, and Fausto Carmona (Roberto Hernandez) who pitched six years with the Indians under a false identity and age.

[Eye Black]

Very brief video of Jean Carlos Carmona batting (note the apparel)...