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Maverick Phillips

molitor fan

By molitor fan,
in Brewers Minor League Talk

molitor fan First Round Pick

molitor fan

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Found an interesting stat courtesy of the excellent Astros site "The Crawfish Boxes"...

 

We know that the Cal league has some skewed offensive metrics, and that is due to three particular bandboxes in that league. One of the posters separated stats out for several Astros and in this case a former Astro. For Maverick, and remember this is what he goes by, not Brett, and I, for one, am not going to allow people to forget that :), this is what the poster came up with:

 

LNC, HD, and STO (293 PA): .305 AVG / .386 OBP / .590 SLG (.285 ISO)

7 Oth Cal Lg Parks (157 PA): .361 AVG / .400 OBP / .563 SLG (.202 ISO)

 

The iso power is a bit of a significant difference, but from this I am very excited and extrapolate that Phillips is a guy that is going to be a triples machine, even at the mlb level....one of those guys that would put up video game numbers at Coors Field.

 

As friends such as Briggs on the site point out the horror that 2016 is going to be and writers such as McCalvy predict a 100 loss season, I conversely am incredibly excited about this season...i think we have tremendous talent predictors in charge of our system right now and believe Phillips is the leader of a new wave of talent that is going to be very exciting....

 

As a refresher I also added up his 2015 total stats when the playoffs were included (5 of his 6 hits in 21 playoff at bats were for extra bases) for the three levels he played at

 

526 at bats 108 runs 163 hits .309 batting average 37 doubles 14 triples 18 home runs 81 Rbi's 46 walks 17 steals .905 OPS

 

Holy smokes....given that he hit very well in park neutral fields and had such across the board stats (Runs and Rbi's and batting average and power!!!!!) how can we not be over the moon on this guy?

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logan82 Wisconsin Timber Rattlers

logan82

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I wouldn't take out triples out of the rate stats but a high amount of triples is something I wouldn't count as a positive. Yes it takes some speed to get triples but most triples are if a fielder misplays a ball hit into the corner.

Fan is short for fanatic.

I blame Wang.

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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I hope this guy is a stud in CF for a very long time. What a trade that could turn out to being.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Jenkins5 First Round Pick

Jenkins5

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Hope you're right. I'm a little concerned about his power given that it completely disappeared when he moved up a level, but I'm excited to see what he does in 2016.

 

That is not unusual, I'd bet if he started in AA again, those numbers would go back up.

 

In AAA, we will hopefully see those Coors Field video game number all the way up til HS is called up

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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JohnBriggs12 Biloxi Shuckers

JohnBriggs12

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Triples are more luck than skill. You need a fielder to screw up for a guy to get a triple most of the time.

 

In Miller Park any ball that gets down into the right field corner should be a triple by anyone with decent speed regardless of how well it's fielded. The caveat is the player has to think triple out of the box and some don't.

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Jenkins5 First Round Pick

Jenkins5

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Evan Gattis was second in the league in triples with 11 last year. It's totally a fluke stat and in no way a repeatable skill.

 

I'm sure Jose Reyes was just "lucky" when he was hitting 12-17 a season between 2005-2012....but continue

 

Some players are more prone to triples. Speed and being able to go line to line help a lot. Phillips is a guy with loads of speed & is a professional hitter. He can take an outside pitch and rip it hard down the left field line, pull an inside pitch hard down the right field line, can square up and drive a ball hard to the gaps.

 

Now I do agree there is luck involved don't get me wrong. However it is not all luck. The Park & defensive players, shifts, bounces of the ball all factor in. Point being, if you go through history and the top triple hitters, most fit a similar profile of being fast & all field professional hitters. Speed isn't enough because guys like Gomez who are fast but power, pull hitters hurt chances of triples. Professional hitters who aren't very fast, physically have to have to many factors go right (prince Fielders triples & inside park homers) to get them.

 

Sometimes a Gettis flukes in there but overall probability of hitting triples does increase with certain offensive attributes.

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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pacopete4 Nashville Sounds

pacopete4

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Well if they're not triples, they'll be doubles. I'm good with that.
"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Jenkins5 First Round Pick

Jenkins5

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Well if they're not triples, they'll be doubles. I'm good with that.

 

^ great point

 

He is averaging 33.5 Doubles, 14 Triples, & 16.5 Homers between 2014-2015 or 65 Extra bases a year. His speed and ability to drive the ball to all fields/gaps. He is entering his 21/22 aged season so you would figure he would continue to grow stronger and add more pop.

 

I think with Phillips we are at least looking at a Brett Gardner type player. If you look at Gardner's 162 game averages, I think they match up pretty well to Mavericks skill set right now. Gardner didn't really start hitting for power (16/17 Hrs) until last two seasons (age 30/31). Adam Eaton is another CF who is a little more productive than Gardner than matches what I think we can expect from Phillips (but much more SB's)

 

All stats are baseball reference 162 game averages and WAR

 

Gardner

162G, 91 R, 24 2B, 8 3B, 10 HR, 53 RBI, 35 SB, 62 BB, 118Ks, .264 ave Slash .346/.392/.738...

3.8 WAR Ave over 6 seasons / 7.3 WAR in 2010 rest usually low 4's.

 

Eaton

162G, 104 R, 30 2B, 11 3B, 9 HR, 53 RBI, 18 SB, 58 BB, 121Ks, .284 ave Slash .355/ .407/ .762...

4.6 WAR over last 2 years / 5.2 WAR in 2014

 

I be fine with having Maverick give us this from the #1, #2 spot in the order. I know most of us would hope for more of a Pollock or Betts

 

Betts

162G. 104 R, 44 2B, 7 3B, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 23 SB, 55 BB, 93Ks, .291 Ave, Slash .348/.471/.818

6 WAR in 1st full-time season (2.1 in only 213 PAs season before..8.1 total)

 

Pollock

162G, 91 R, 36 2B, 7 3B, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 27 SB, 46 BB, 92Ks, .294 ave Slash .347/ .464/ .811...

4.93 WAR average over last 3 years, 7.4 WAR in 2015

 

Could Phillips become Trout, maybe. But I am expecting Gardner/Eaton and hoping for Pollock/ Betts. That just seams most realistic to me. Either way he will be a 4-7 WAR a year guy if he falls in this range of Gardner to Pollack

 

Trout

162G 119 R, 36 2B, 8 3B, 35 HR, 99 RBI, 28 SB, 90 BB, 161Ks, .304 ave Slash .397/ .559/ .956...

9.3 WAR average over last 4 years, 10.8 WAR in 2012

Proud member since 2003 (geez ha I was 14 then)

 

FORMERLY BrewCrewWS2008 and YoungGeezy don't even remember other names used

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reillymcshane Nashville Sounds

reillymcshane

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I love me heap big amounts of extra base hits.

 

When compiling the most recent Top 25, I saw Phillips had 60 or more xbh in 2014 and 2015. That's pretty awesome. I'd love him to hit 30 HR, but I think he's more of a 10-15HR guy, with 40+ doubles/triples. That would be a heck of a player to have.

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And That Nashville Sounds

And That

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Trout with the bat he's not, but a very important component of Phillips' value is his well above average defense. He's a good runner, takes very good routes, and has a gun for an arm, especially for CF. His defense alone is worth 2-3 WAR, at least.

 

Basically he'll bring value regardless of what he does at the plate. But if he hits too... watch out.

@YouKnowAndThat | Almost, Tim Dell
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