Segura's future with the team.

[3and2Fastball]

I'm biased because I'm a Segura fan. I think he's a better defensive player than UZR or WAR seems to, though I have no data to back that up, just the eye test.

 

To be clear, I am not at all advocating keeping Segura over Arcia. I'm very excited about Arcia's potential. I just think Segura is underrated

[nate82]

Even with Segura hitting a lot of ground balls he is not hitting them all that softly which means he is getting good contact on them.

 

Segura last year had an average of 86.65 MPH on his ground balls that he hit. Even Segura's average speed for the ball coming off his bat was better than Altuve, Russell, Ellsbury, Simmons, Jace Peterson, and Alcides Escobar. It is not like Segura has not been hitting the ball hard at least the advanced stats do not say this. I wouldn't be surprised if Segura puts up a .275-.290 average this season but that is going to be BABIP driven.

 

http://baseballsavant.com/apps/hit_leader.php?game_date=&abs=150&type=batter&sort=7,1

 

 

The real problem with Segura is his OBP. If Segura is able to get back to his 2013 OBP numbers or close to it his value will increase tremendously. Segura is more like Alcides Escobar where he is never going to walk a lot and his value is mostly in their defense and their BABIP. When their BABIP is high they have good years offensively but whenever their BABIP is low they are going to have negative offensive years.

 

Both Escobar and Segura are your prototypical they are going to put the ball in play and really should be batting down in the batting order where putting the ball in play is more important than getting extra base hits and getting on base.

[LouisEly]

1) With guys who are fast, don't you want them hitting more ground balls than fly balls?

 

B) If a guy isn't durable, then you have to find guys off the bench to replace him. How many teams have a backup SS that is as good as league average? It's nice if a guy is better, but if he can't go, chances are the replacement guy is below average. Which is more important, individual production at a position or total team production at a position?

 

3) If it could be proven that a guy ranks 24th overall at a position, which is more important - the ranking or the delta between 24th and say 8th? What is the right measuring stick, rank or distance?

 

4) If Simmons is getting $8M (and Peralta $12.5M), is Segura's value enhanced by his relatively low salary of $2.5M? It's nice to have pre-arby guys, but what does it cost on the open market to fill the SS position with an average SS? What does a relatively low salary allow you to do at other positions?

[And That]

Even with Segura hitting a lot of ground balls he is not hitting them all that softly which means he is getting good contact on them.

Going by Fangraphs, Segura's percentage of hard hit balls in play last year was 19.7%. The MLB average was 28.6%. So maybe not?

[And That]

1) With guys who are fast, don't you want them hitting more ground balls than fly balls?

Why? Guessing the number of infield hits gathered due to speed between a runner with average speed and a runner with above average speed is not substantial or meaningful.

 

3) If it could be proven that a guy ranks 24th overall at a position, which is more important - the ranking or the delta between 24th and say 8th? What is the right measuring stick, rank or distance?

The ranking of players in a vacuum is generally meaningless. What's not meaningless is that Segura has basically been replacement level the past two years.

 

4) If Simmons is getting $8M (and Peralta $12.5M), is Segura's value enhanced by his relatively low salary of $2.5M? It's nice to have pre-arby guys, but what does it cost on the open market to fill the SS position with an average SS? What does a relatively low salary allow you to do at other positions?

Segura should be valued at his production relative to his own salary. I have no idea what an average SS would cost, I'll leave that to you to research, but an average shortstop Segura is not.

[MadScientist]

This is a make or break year for Segura. If he doesn't show a jump in production, he'll be a utility player, playing at or near minimum after this season. He came up and had success for half a season and pitchers adjusted. He hasn't adjusted for 2 1/2 seasons. It's not impossible that he will figure it out, although the odds are not great.

 

Still rooting for him to improve, only good things will come from him playing better.

[Funketown]

Segura's 2013 season is getting pretty distant in terms of projecting his future performance.

 

This has been repeated by many posters many times, but he has been one of the worst couple of shortstops in the major leagues in the past two seasons.

 

Among the 40 shortstops with 500 PA's from 2014-2015, Segura is 38th in fWAR, 37th in wRC+, 37th in ISO, 39th in BB%, 21st in BA, 34th in OBP, 36th in SLG, 36th in wOBA.

 

Among the 17 shortstops with 1000 PA's from 2014-2015 (loosely defined as guys who started for the past two seasons), he's dead last in fWAR (0.2 vs. 2.0 for 'runner-up'), wRC+ (64 vs. 72), wOBA (.270 vs. .279).

 

He's a good baserunner and defender which I'd imagine is enough to keep him on an MLB roster even if his bat does not improve.

[MadScientist]

On the other hand, he's right at the age where Go-Go started figuring things out.

[jerichoholicninja]

On the other hand, he's right at the age where Go-Go started figuring things out.

 

If I knew how to type an eyeroll, I would. In every thread about a player who has been terrible his whole career someone brings up Carlos. He was 1000 times the exception, not the rule.

[3and2Fastball]

On the other hand, he's right at the age where Go-Go started figuring things out.

 

If I knew how to type an eyeroll, I would. In every thread about a player who has been terrible his whole career someone brings up Carlos. He was 1000 times the exception, not the rule.

 

Kind of, yes. Gomez is an elite all around overall athlete. When you combine the footspeed with the arm and the hitting potential, Gomez is a rare commodity. I think Segura has a little bit of that, certainly in terms of the speed & arm. When you look at the bat, that is tougher to project towards being the 7+ WAR guy like Gomez became for a few years....

[logan82]

On the other hand, he's right at the age where Go-Go started figuring things out.

 

If I knew how to type an eyeroll, I would. In every thread about a player who has been terrible his whole career someone brings up Carlos. He was 1000 times the exception, not the rule.

 

Kind of, yes. Gomez is an elite all around overall athlete. When you combine the footspeed with the arm and the hitting potential, Gomez is a rare commodity. I think Segura has a little bit of that, certainly in terms of the speed & arm. When you look at the bat, that is tougher to project towards being the 7+ WAR guy like Gomez became for a few years....

I still think Gomez best years were more of a fluke than the norm. I was really glad we were able to trade him and get something of value for him.

[nate82]

Even with Segura hitting a lot of ground balls he is not hitting them all that softly which means he is getting good contact on them.

Going by Fangraphs, Segura's percentage of hard hit balls in play last year was 19.7%. The MLB average was 28.6%. So maybe not?

 

Well Segura's hard hit balls in play last year is going to be low as one of the key factors in that stat is hang time, location, and general trajectory. With a higher ground ball rate you should see a low percentage with that stat. For comparison Escobar was at 20.4%.

 

If you look at Segura's MED hit percentage it was at 54.7% and league average was at 52.7%. Though Segura's soft% was higher than the league average also.

 

If you look even further into his numbers the higher soft% and med% can be explained by his oppo% cent% and pull%. Segura's pull% was only 25.6% compared to the league average of 39.1%. Since the majority of hard hit balls are going to come from the pull side and Segura having such a low pull% you should expect Segura to have a weaker hard hit balls in play stat especially one where it is looking at hang time and trajectory. Generally speaking balls that are pulled are going to have more hang time and have a higher trajectory than balls that are hit up the middle or are taken to the opposite field.

 

I still believe Segura wasn't hitting things weakly at least not his ground balls as his ground ball velocity wasn't all that low and his average speed wasn't all that low either.

 

 

Segura still needs to raise his OBP. If Segura raises his OBP up near the .300 again his good base running will actually improve his offense and make him become extremely valuable again. I am not all that worried about if Segura will hit I am more worried about will he get on base enough so his above average base running will actually be an asset for the Brewers.