Segura's future with the team.

[logan82]

What do you think will happen with Segura? Other than one awesome half season his offense has been pretty poor even in comparison to other SS. He has shown little power and barely ever walks. If his defense slips, he is straying into Yuni territory. Granted his defense would have to slip quite a bit, but the Yuniesque bat is there.

[MrTPlush]

I really wish they would trade him and open the door for someone else. The upside/hope on Segura is pretty small at this point. We have some interesting guys to test out and Segura is just a near worthless roadblock.

 

i think he is a waste of roster space and a waste of $2.6mil.

[monty57]

I think he will fill the spot at shortstop until they call up Arcia, at which point he will be a utility guy and potentially the RH part of a 2B platoon. He will then be let go, as his arby numbers will be too much for the Brewers to pay for a utility guy. He will then float around the league for a while as teams hope that he can live up to his potential.

[Jenkins5]

This is his last chance this season to prove worth for Brewers. Really he has until June/July to prove his worth. By proving worth we can either slide him over to 2nd base or trade him while is value is high. 2014 he started out bad then he lost a child. That's tough so I didn't that season against him at all. 2015 though....no real excuses, he has a horrible approach, refuses to walk or work counts, he isn't driving the ball at all, and hasn't looked remotely good overall as a hitter. Hard to believe his sample size after coming up & his first full season was a complete fluke.

 

It is sink or swim.

[jerichoholicninja]

Barring his bat showing any semblance of life, if he's not traded during this current season, he has to be non-tendered next offseason. He really is of no use to the franchise in its current state. Arcia is the future and will be given every opportunity to be the SS. He's probably got a better glove than Gennett at 2B but Scooter out hits him. Maybe he could handle 3B but he bat plays even worse there. Even if you give him the utility infielder role he's an expensive bench player on a team that's going no where. It's about time to move on from him.

[logan82]

If you look at Segura's stats with us he hit well for the first half of 2014 and has been really poor since.

 

His ISO is even lower than Yuni, so I was wrong about that.

[Funketown]

At this point he's got to be viewed as a stop-gap. We've hashed this over many times but he has been one of the worst every-day batters in MLB over the past couple of seasons, and really only stays above the replacement level threshold because he's a solid defender. At $2.6MM, he probably carries minimal value on a trade market, and given the state of the team for this upcoming season I suspect management will just hold on to him until Arcia is ready.

[MKE81]

arcia is the future. segura will be traded. he holds no value as a 2b (rivera, villar, etc) or 3b (cecchini, FA). he's not going to be kept as a utility. he'll be packaged with somebody in a trade or will be traded individually for a low level prospect. people can complain about his 2.6M all day but he's going to be gone from team so who cares. his comp is half that of Escobar and given Escobar sucks offensively as well is he really worth 5.25M for defense? compared to what brandon crawford is making...hell no

[sheetskout]

Yes, Alcides Escobar's defense is worth 5.25 million dollars. Andrelton Simmons will earn 8-million dollars this coming season and is bested by Escobar in every offensive measure. For what it's worth Alcides Escobar is an above-average offensive shortstop.

[MKE81]

Yes, hitting higher than 257 twice in the past 6yrs with an OBP higher than 293 twice over that same span is "above average". Segura's stats are extremely similar to Escobar's over the past 3yrs, offensively. Escobar isn't worth twice the price solely because of his defense. Segura is 4yrs younger too. If the Royals were a 500 team he's not winning the GG either. Escobar's stats are also extremely similar to Simmons, who has a higher OBP, OPS over past 3yrs as well as higher BA in 2 of past 3yrs. Simmons also walks more and Ks less. Similar doh les and triples and Simmons more HR. Simmons also has fewer ABs as well. So no, Escobar doesn't beat him across the board. Simmons is also much better defensively. Segura isn't good by any means but he's better than people believe. Doesn't matter anyway since Arcia is the future

[JohnBriggs12]

Colorado needs a shortstop do they not? Segura would thrive in Coors.

[MrTPlush]

Colorado needs a shortstop do they not? Segura would thrive in Coors.

 

Why? His fly balls will go 280 feet vs. 275 feet?

[pacopete4]

Colorado needs a shortstop do they not? Segura would thrive in Coors.

 

Why? His fly balls will go 280 feet vs. 275 feet?

 

 

When does he hit fly balls? Grounders galore.

[MrTPlush]

Colorado needs a shortstop do they not? Segura would thrive in Coors.

 

Why? His fly balls will go 280 feet vs. 275 feet?

 

 

When does he hit fly balls? Grounders galore.

 

Well I was just saying the fly balls he hits won't get any help at Coors.

[502 to Right]

Segura is MLB filler at this point, as the Brewers have to put a shortstop on the field to fill out their lineup. I doubt he has any real value trade-wise, and certainly has no future with the Brewers.

[3and2Fastball]

Jean Segura is ranked 24th in WAR among all Shortstops in the years 2013-2015. Not filler. A legit starting MLB SS. Now that we've got that together, let's break it down further:

 

Segura is 2nd among SS's from '13 to '15 in stolen bases. "Stolen bases?! Who cares?!" you might say. Well, I care, but anyways....

 

He's 15th among all SS's in Batting Average from '13 to '15.

 

Defensive WAR? 21st

 

Runs scored? 10th

 

Games played? 10th (yeah yeah, durability doesn't matter, supposedly)

 

He's not a superstar, but he's a good solid starting MLB Shortstop and one of the best baserunners and run scorers among all SS's in the last 3 years. He's had a few down years, it happens. He's still only 25 years old (will turn 26 this March). I've seen him make some truly remarkable plays at SS. He hustles all the time and is one of my favorite Brewers. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see him have a few great seasons coming up

[1992casey]

If you want to do stolen bases, you have to figure in caught stealing, using at least 67% to 70% as an acceptable break even point. Anything beyond that is the total worth discussing. Jean has 96 stolen bases in 125 attempts, which results in a 76.8% success rate. That makes his stolen bases a positive. But it also nets him only 12 stolen bases beyond the 67% threshold over the course of his career.

[brewcrewdue80]

Colorado needs a shortstop do they not? Segura would thrive in Coors.

 

Why? His fly balls will go 280 feet vs. 275 feet?

 

 

When does he hit fly balls? Grounders galore.

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v33903349/?game_pk=381641

 

There was this power display Segura put on at Coors.

 

Doubled his HR total from 2 to 4 in 2014 in those b2b ABs.

[reillymcshane]

Segura's future options are:

 

1. Brewers start him at SS this year. He does poorly (like 2014-15). We then unload him for peanuts. If no one will trade for him, he is just non-tendered next off season. Likelihood: 60%

 

2. Segura plays well enough that someone will trade for him. He is dealt by the trade deadline - again opening up the spot for Arcia. We are happy for the prospects. Likelihood: 20%

 

3. He is dealt before the season begins. Likelihood: 10%

 

4. He plays well enough, and then shifted to 2B to open up SS for Arcia. Likelihood: 5%

 

5. He stays at SS all season. Likelihood: 5%

 

Add it up and there's a 90% chance he is gone by next off season. If Segura plays well, we'll trade him for younger talent. If he plays like 2014-15, we'll unload him for cheap (or nothing).

[And That]

I was curious about quantifying Segura's types of batted balls instead of just relying on the eye test of "he hits a lot of ground balls" and it turns out he does hit a lot of ground balls.

 

Thank you Fangraphs:

 

[pre]2015 LD% GB% FB%

Segura 16.7 59.0 24.2

MLB 20.9 45.3 33.8

 

2014 LD% GB% FB%

Segura 18.3 58.9 22.7

MLB 20.8 44.8 34.4

 

2013 LD% GB% FB%

Segura 18.0 58.7 23.3

MLB 21.2 44.5 34.3[/pre]

 

Yikes. That's around 30% (!!) more ground balls than league average. Basically Segura is best suited for a team that plays a lot of teams with bad infield defense.

[DuWayne Steurer]

 

http://m.mlb.com/video/v33903349/?game_pk=381641

 

There was this power display Segura put on at Coors.

 

Doubled his HR total from 2 to 4 in 2014 in those b2b ABs.

 

 

Not sure if being srs or what, but Coors field won't make an extreme ground ball hitter hit more flyballs. As Toby just showed, Segura hits WAY more groundballs than league average. The fact that Segura got under a couple when they happened to be in Coors field was likely a matter of luck or happenstance more than anything.

[502 to Right]

Jean Segura is ranked 24th in WAR among all Shortstops in the years 2013-2015. Not filler. A legit starting MLB SS. Now that we've got that together, let's break it down further:

 

 

Where does he rank in the last two seasons? Even if you include his fluke 4.0 WAR (BRef) 2013 season, he's in the bottom fifth of starting shortstops. He's filler--a/k/a "just a guy"--not someone you plan for your future with and not someone who has any serious trade value.

 

I'm not suggesting the Brewers release him. He's the best shortstop they currently have on the roster and they need to have someone in the lineup with SS next to his name. He can keep the job until Arcia comes up (whenever that may be). Since the Brewers need to lose all the games they can in 2016 I'm fine with Jean Segura and his 68 OPS+ in the lineup every day.

[pacopete4]

Jean Segura is ranked 24th in WAR among all Shortstops in the years 2013-2015. Not filler. A legit starting MLB SS. Now that we've got that together, let's break it down further:

 

 

Where does he rank in the last two seasons? Even if you include his fluke 4.0 WAR (BRef) 2013 season, he's in the bottom fifth of starting shortstops. He's filler--a/k/a "just a guy"--not someone you plan for your future with and not someone who has any serious trade value.

 

I'm not suggesting the Brewers release him. He's the best shortstop they currently have on the roster and they need to have someone in the lineup with SS next to his name. He can keep the job until Arcia comes up (whenever that may be). Since the Brewers need to lose all the games they can in 2016 I'm fine with Jean Segura and his 68 OPS+ in the lineup every day.

 

Even that is debatable. Villar might outplay him.

[MrTPlush]

I believe I posted it on this site at some point last season, but I looked up where he ranked on other stats(OBP, SLG%, etc.) and he was dead last as a SS in the majority of them and ranked bottom 5 in a lot more in MLB as a whole. Don't sugarcoat the 5 he is half decent in. The rest of his game is so bad it is almost amazing to watch.

 

Last year Segura was the second worst SS only behind Alexei Ramirez.(Fangraphs)

 

Last year he ranked 128/141 in all of MLB.(Fangraphs)

 

*Both figures include defense*

 

Jean Segura has been one of the leagues worst players for two years straight. Jean Segura is as much of a starter as Yuni B was for us in 2011. Only reason he is a starter is out of complete desperation and lack of a better option. Jean Segura the past two years has had the same overall performance as Yuni B did in 2011? Do you think Yuni B had starting SS caliber stuff back then?

[topper09er]

Jean Segura is ranked 24th in WAR among all Shortstops in the years 2013-2015. Not filler. A legit starting MLB SS.

 

This is misleading, WAR is a rate and counting stat. The reason he is in the top 30 for his 3 year career span is because he was a full time MLB starting SS for all of those years, thus getting more WAR than other newer but better SS with less playing time in that timespan. I am sure if you looked at WAR/PA over that 3 year span he would drop out of the top 30, where he belongs, because he is filler and not a legit MLB starting SS. Not sure if there is an easy way to find that but I don't feel like calculating it.