2016 OF Situation

[monty57]

I'm not sure where the Pérez/Nieuwenhuis comparison fits in either. Kirk has lousy MLB numbers, but he's been fine in the minors. Hernán has sucked in both the majors and minors.

 

For what it's worth, Baseball Reference points out that today is Hernán's 25th birthday.

 

 

Perez put up solid minor league numbers in 2013 in AA: .301/.325/.423 at age 22 and in AAA in 2014: .287/.331/.401 at age 23. Those are much better numbers than Rivera put up at those levels and everyone seems ready to hand him the utility job. Don't let your disdain for my opinions cloud your view of Perez. He's not a bad player. Guys don't get major league looks at age 21 like Perez did without ability.

 

Yeah, Rivera's career minor league numbers are .244 avg / .289 OBP / .349 SLG / .639 OPS, including 2015 numbers of .253 / .298 / .331 / .629.

 

Perez's career minor league numbers are .262 / .304 / .357 / .660 at roughly the same age.

 

If Rivera gets the utility IF job, it should be because he is a slick fielding defender, who is the best option to be our backup SS, not because he is having a hot spring. If he is indeed figuring something out at the plate, then he should be sent to AAA to play everyday.

 

For those who say Rivera should get the nod over Perez because Perez doesn't walk, look again at Rivera's OBP vs AVG. He doesn't exactly walk a ton. I like Rivera over Perez as a player because of his defense, but we lose Perez if we don't keep him on the 25-man, while Rivera can be sent to AAA, so I would probably keep Perez and Walsh on the MLB roster, with Rivera in AAA.

 

I'd give Walsh more playing time at 2B/3B, as I like his bat better than either Perez or Rivera, and I would let Perez be the backup SS.

 

After typing this, I realize this is the OF thread, so sorry. The top four OF look locked at Braun, Broxton, Santana, Flores (also backup 1B), and the final spot is either Presley or Kirk N. Kirk is probably the better defender, so I would probably keep him solely as the backup CF, starting once every couple of weeks. I want to see what we have in Broxton, so I want him playing nearly every day.

[bill hAll Star]

I'd be really disappointed if they went with Presley over Kirk (if they go with a 5th OF).

 

Kirk was a better minors hitter, is currently younger, has good RHP splits to play, has a bigger frame (power off the bench as they get older), and actually had a respectable OPS (.733) outside of Citi Field.

 

All Presley has done is hit a little bit better for 40 spring ABs. There is some potential for a bench piece or a very low trade chip at the deadline if they can work with Kirk. Presley is a 100% AAAA guy you can get off of waivers later in the year.

[MKE81]

I'd be really disappointed if they went with Presley over Kirk (if they go with a 5th OF).

 

Kirk was a better minors hitter, is currently younger, has good RHP splits to play, has a bigger frame (power off the bench as they get older), and actually had a respectable OPS (.733) outside of Citi Field.

 

All Presley has done is hit a little bit better for 40 spring ABs. There is some potential for a bench piece or a very low trade chip at the deadline if they can work with Kirk. Presley is a 100% AAAA guy you can get off of waivers later in the year.

I don't think minor league numbers should matter when both guys are 28 and 30yrs old having played at least 3yrs in the majors. Presley didn't hit "a little bit better" than Kirk in spring - he hit a lot better. He had better ABs; more consistent contact and a better approach. Has more BBs than Ks as opposed to Kirk having 4x as many Ks than BBs. Based on spring performance Presley easily is the choice. However, CF is the main spot that lacks a true defender (after Broxton) so I can easily see them keeping Kirk. At this point I don't care who they keep as long as Broxton/Flores get the majority of PT.

[DHonks]

I want Broxton to be the other OF. He makes too much sense

[bill hAll Star]

I'd be really disappointed if they went with Presley over Kirk (if they go with a 5th OF).

 

Kirk was a better minors hitter, is currently younger, has good RHP splits to play, has a bigger frame (power off the bench as they get older), and actually had a respectable OPS (.733) outside of Citi Field.

 

All Presley has done is hit a little bit better for 40 spring ABs. There is some potential for a bench piece or a very low trade chip at the deadline if they can work with Kirk. Presley is a 100% AAAA guy you can get off of waivers later in the year.

I don't think minor league numbers should matter when both guys are 28 and 30yrs old having played at least 3yrs in the majors. Presley didn't hit "a little bit better" than Kirk in spring - he hit a lot better. He had better ABs; more consistent contact and a better approach. Has more BBs than Ks as opposed to Kirk having 4x as many Ks than BBs. Based on spring performance Presley easily is the choice. However, CF is the main spot that lacks a true defender (after Broxton) so I can easily see them keeping Kirk. At this point I don't care who they keep as long as Broxton/Flores get the majority of PT.

 

Minor league numbers don't matter that greatly to me, but add it all up and Kirk has been (a little) better than Presley for several thousand plate appearances. They may also help explain that Kirk will be better once taken out of Citi Field, where he has a .733 career OPS. I think he's a better hitter.

 

I just don't understand why some guy catching fire for 40 spring training ABs trumps every other factor. That's kind of silly. I will bet you that Presley would hit a ~.700 OPS for the Brewers over a season and Kirk would be .730 or maybe slightly better since he is a guy that can be platooned.

 

To dhonks - I don't think anyone is arguing against Broxton. I think it's Santana/Broxton/Braun/Flores and the choice of Kirk/Presley with Liriano going to the DL for awhile.

[1992casey]

Neither one — Nieuwenhuis nor Presley — has sufficient time in the majors to disregard minor league numbers. Complicating things is that they've both moved around enough that each one has stops that toss in tiny samples. That makes it tough to eyeball numbers. Ideally, I'd look for the most recent 1,500 AB or PA, rounding off to the full season that makes the player exceed that threshold.

 

Both of them are older, so I guess I can't get too bent out of shape if one is picked over the other. Maybe I'd pick Presley because I can spell his name without having to practice.

[pacopete4]

Pick whichever one that you cannot stash in AAA. If Presley can be optioned down there more easily then pick Kirk. If its the other way around, pick the other guy. Keep as much depth as possible because we just don't know who is going to pan out (if any of these guys).

[rwa12]

I'd be really disappointed if they went with Presley over Kirk (if they go with a 5th OF).

 

Kirk was a better minors hitter, is currently younger, has good RHP splits to play, has a bigger frame (power off the bench as they get older), and actually had a respectable OPS (.733) outside of Citi Field.

 

All Presley has done is hit a little bit better for 40 spring ABs. There is some potential for a bench piece or a very low trade chip at the deadline if they can work with Kirk. Presley is a 100% AAAA guy you can get off of waivers later in the year.

 

[sarcasm]I would argue that Kirk will remain younger than Presley, regardless of outcome.[/sarcasm]

 

Sorry, couldn't resist

[djoctagone]

If Presley can be optioned down there more easily then pick Kirk.

presley has no minor league options remaining. if the brewers add him to their 25-man roster and then try to outright him to the minor leagues, presley can refuse the assignment (as he's been outrighted before) and declare free agency.

 

nieuwenhuis is in the same boat. out of minor league options, and he's already been outrighted once. if the brewers try to outright him a second time, nieuwenhuis can declare free agency.

[pacopete4]

If Presley can be optioned down there more easily then pick Kirk.

presley has no minor league options remaining. if the brewers add him to their 25-man roster and then try to outright him to the minor leagues, presley can refuse the assignment (as he's been outrighted before) and declare free agency.

 

nieuwenhuis is in the same boat. out of minor league options, and he's already been outrighted once. if the brewers try to outright him a second time, nieuwenhuis can declare free agency.

 

Well then. That doesn't simplify the decision. We should just cut both and see what Kenny Lofton is up to. This team has missed a true leadoff hitter!

[MNBrew]

If Presley can be optioned down there more easily then pick Kirk.

presley has no minor league options remaining. if the brewers add him to their 25-man roster and then try to outright him to the minor leagues, presley can refuse the assignment (as he's been outrighted before) and declare free agency.

 

nieuwenhuis is in the same boat. out of minor league options, and he's already been outrighted once. if the brewers try to outright him a second time, nieuwenhuis can declare free agency.

That original quote's kind of odd because the difference at the moment is that Presley doesn't have to be optioned b/c he's an NRI (presumably without an opt-out clause since we've not heard anything about that, at least not with respect to Opening Day), not on the 40-man roster, whereas Nieuwenhuis has been on the 40-man since he was claimed off waivers. So by that logic, Brew4U, is it right to think you're saying they should keep Nieuwenhuis?

 

I've seen Presley play for a while when he was a Twin. He's got some nice skills. I assume the same for Kirk N. But there's also good reason why guys like these two are fighting to make an MLB roster as opposed to holding down a starting OF job in the bigs, which leads me to think it's really a toss-up and that neither's probably a big-time difference maker on the Brewers, let alone of the caliber to be much of a difference maker on a contending team.

[JohnBriggs12]

22 K's in 50 ABs in Arizona for Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Those are numbers you might expect for big time all or nothing power bats like Russell Branyan or Mark Reynolds. Nieuwenhuis has a career slugging percentage under .400. A big part of the job for either Nieuwenhuis or Presley will be as late inning PH usually facing big time strikeout ratio relievers. Presley seems better suited to give you a quality AB in those situations.

 

The who is on the roster, who isn't, is superfluous. Designate Nieuwenhuis to make room for Presley. There's equally as talented players on the waiver wire right now if you need to add one. Besides, they'll have Young playing in AAA who could replace Presley if he's so bad that he loses his spot. Or they could recall Reed.

 

The big question in the OF is whether Broxton will be overmatched or can hold his own. Will we see Phillips later this year?

[brewmann04]

I think we see a late addition to the Crew.

[djoctagone]

If Presley can be optioned down there more easily then pick Kirk.

So by that logic, Brew4U, is it right to think you're saying they should keep Nieuwenhuis?

brew4u likely mixed up minor league assignments and optional minor league assignments and likely intended to state:

 

if presley can be assigned to the minor leagues more easily, then pick nieuwenhuis.

 

presley can indeed be easily assigned to the minor leagues. he signed a minor league contract, and that's how minor league contracts work. because he has less than six years of major league service time, mlb did not mandate that his minor league contract include an opt-out date. presley could have negotiated an opt-out date on his own that we are not aware of, but a player of his caliber likely couldn't leverage that.

[pacopete4]

22 K's in 50 ABs in Arizona for Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

 

You and your strikeouts, I tell yah.

 

 

I think a reason to keep Kirk over Presley would be because Kirk is more versatile in the OF over his major league career. Either way, I hope there is a way that one of them is in Milwaukee and the other is stashed in AAA. However that happens, I'm completely fine with. Depth. Depth. Depth. Going to need it.

[monty57]

22 K's in 50 ABs in Arizona for Kirk Nieuwenhuis. Those are numbers you might expect for big time all or nothing power bats like Russell Branyan or Mark Reynolds. Nieuwenhuis has a career slugging percentage under .400. A big part of the job for either Nieuwenhuis or Presley will be as late inning PH usually facing big time strikeout ratio relievers. Presley seems better suited to give you a quality AB in those situations.

 

The who is on the roster, who isn't, is superfluous. Designate Nieuwenhuis to make room for Presley. There's equally as talented players on the waiver wire right now if you need to add one. Besides, they'll have Young playing in AAA who could replace Presley if he's so bad that he loses his spot. Or they could recall Reed.

 

The big question in the OF is whether Broxton will be overmatched or can hold his own. Will we see Phillips later this year?

 

I agree with most of this. The one point I'll say is that the person who wins the 5th OF spot probably won't be called on much to be the late innings pinch hitter. The primary LH pinch hitters will likely be Flores and Walsh, so the main role of the 5th OF will be to be the backup CF so we don't have to move Santana to CF when Broxton needs a day off. That makes your last statement a big one. Will Broxton be able to hold his own for the season? I'm really pulling for him, as it gives us another good player, either as a Brewer or as a trade chip, and it allows us to hold off on starting Phillips' clock until next year, when he will very likely be the starting CF at the MLB level.

[monty57]

You and your strikeouts, I tell yah.

 

Well, it is nearly a 50% rate for a guy who came to camp as a fringe player. I agree that if he's kept, it's for his defense. Hopefully whoever wins the position won't get more than about 4 PA every two weeks as backup CF.

 

Either way, I hope there is a way that one of them is in Milwaukee and the other is stashed in AAA. However that happens, I'm completely fine with. Depth. Depth. Depth. Going to need it.

 

I generally agree with the need for depth, but we have lots of OF in the minors right now that are probably going to be better than any of the guys fighting for the final MLB OF spot this spring. I only advocate for holding onto the loser of the "battle" if they do not take AAA PAs away from an actual prospect, or keep an actual prospect at AA if he's ready for AAA.

[bill hAll Star]

My reason for Kirk is that if we're looking for an OF that has a shred of a chance of making a Steve Pearce-ian jump from being a AAAA guy to being a decent starter (Pearce is the best example off the top of my head and he's regressed), it is Kirk. The chances of him being a "decent" 3rd/4th OF are slim, but the number is greater than zero.

 

Chances are, both of these guys are not great major leaguers and our 5th OF is somebody totally different 2 years from now and both of these guys have moved on.

 

However, Kirk has a bigger frame and has hit somewhat well outside of Citi Field. Presley is the type of "you know exactly what you have" depth guy that should probably be waiting in AAA for a contending team.

 

Here is what I like: Against RHP on the road (not at Citi Field) his career OPS is .794. I would expect something similar at Miller Park and would be a nice cheap platoon bat to either have off the bench for a few years or to get production out of and ship at the deadline.

[pacopete4]

Here is what I like: Against RHP on the road (not at Citi Field) his career OPS is .794. I would expect something similar at Miller Park and would be a nice cheap platoon bat to either have off the bench for a few years or to get production out of and ship at the deadline.

 

 

You sold me. Kirk it is.

[djoctagone]

Brewers now with only three true OF's on big league roster - Braun, Nieuwenhuis, Flores.

 

Infielders Perez and Elmore are your 4th and 5th OF's.

 

That's awfully disjointed, but we know a ton more roster movement is in store.

if you don't feel good about this, consider that not too long ago, elian herrera may have been the fourth or fifth outfielder.

[pacopete4]

Elmore won't be around long.

[djoctagone]

with ryan braun's knee injury, one has to wonder if the club will cut domingo santana's rehab assignment short and activate him for today's game.

 

andy wilkins has logged in some innings at aaa in the outfield corners, so that may factor into the club's decision to keep santana on rehab.

[djoctagone]

andy wilkins has logged in some innings at aaa in the outfield corners, so that may factor into the club's decision to keep santana on rehab.

wilkins optioned today. sounds like braun is day-to-day, and the club has ramon flores, kirk nieuwenhuis, hernan perez and jake elmore to cover the outfield corners for the time being with keon broxton presumably covering center field.

[ecjimg]

I am on board with the rebuild , but I think it's disgusting that Jake Elmore is put in the lineup as a corner outfielder (more often than just an emergency). It's like when they put Alex Gonzalez and Yuni Bettencourt at first base. I kind of expect more from a major-league baseball team.

[JohnBriggs12]

I am on board with the rebuild , but I think it's disgusting that Jake Elmore is put in the lineup as a corner outfielder (more often than just an emergency). It's like when they put Alex Gonzalez and Yuni Bettencourt at first base. I kind of expect more from a major-league baseball team.

 

That's what you end up with on a team that's tanking. Nate Schierholtz was starting RF for Cubs for a couple years. Darwin Barney was their starting 2B.

It'll probably get worse before it gets better. You could probably get better OF out of the Atlantic League. Why not sign a Caleb Gindl?