2016 OF Situation

[CheezWizHed]

So, going back to the OF situation...

 

Trading Khris gives us a more flexible situation to evaluate the talent we have going forward. Santana is certainly the biggest winner of Davis' trade, but I think we have others. Here is what I'd like to see in this year of evaluating our "next gen" OF:

 

1) Move Braun (RHB, 32yo) back to LF. I'd prefer it was 1B, but I think LF is realistic for this year. He would become more neutral defensively in LF from what I've seen on D-metrics. We have better, younger defensive OFers that can cover the more difficult RF spot.

 

2) Santana (RHB, 23yo) gets most starts in RF. He certainly doesn't have anything more to prove at AAA, but isn't a sure thing at MLB either. His OPS of 768 is manageable for LF/RF. But I think there is the expecatation based on MiLB numbers that he could do much more. Probably won't outhit Davis this year if Davis stays healthy, but certainly has the chance in the next 2-3 years. Need to answer the question if he really was a steal in the Gomez/Fiers trade.

 

3) Rymer Liriano(RHB, 24yo): Top priority lottery ticket. A mid-tier prospect that the Padres didn't prioritize because of better players ahead of him and he is out of options. But still has some fans due to bat speed and versatility. Fringy (from what I hear) defense for CF, he probably should get the first shot there. Could also spell Braun/Santana in LF/RF too. Give him a chance to be Geraldo Parra.

 

4) Ramon Flores (LHB, 23yo): Second Priority Lottery Ticket. Smooth Lefty hitter with limited power. Limited to corner OF, but not a great arm for RF either. No real updates on his injury has people speculating that he might start on the DL, which might be a positive thing for the Brewers; allowing him to have a MiLB stint before making a decision on activating him and giving others a longer stint to prove/disprove themselves. Out of options.

 

5) Keon Broxton (RHB, 25yo): Third priority Lottery Ticket. Good defensive CF with speed. Career minors numbers of 253/333/410/743. Not bad for CF, but not great. Might be a late bloomer as he has hit better the last two years. I'd like to see him get a shot over Nieuwenhuis. Won't be Carlos Gomez despite the similar size/speed, but if he can hit is minor league numbers with good CF defense, that is worth a CF starter somewhere (knowing Phillips is coming soon). Looks like he has an option left?

 

6) Kirk Nieuwenhuis (LHB, 28yo): Comfort blanket of the group comes as a waiver claim. Probably the most known player as he has already maxed as a 4th OFer. Probably would be a passable starting CFer with decent D, and has a career 232/306/389/695 in 693 ABs. No options remaining.

 

7) Michael Reed (LHB, 23yo) - Needs to start at AAA. Reed is certainly an MLB type player, but I think he can still use another year in the minors before making the jump. I think he is more than a lottery ticket type player, but I want to see him prove it for a year at AAA. His AA was a bit of a break-out from prior years, so I'd like to see him sustain at AAA.

 

So for now, I see it like this:

LF: Braun/Liriano

CF: Liriano/Nieuwenhuis

RF: Santana/Liriano

 

AAA: Reed/Phillips/Broxton

 

IR: Flores

 

That is the most logical from keeping the most talent, but I tend to think about cutting Nieuwenhuis and let Broxton be the backup CF with 25% of the starts. When Flores comes back, he can be the 5th OFer at that point.

[logan82]

Man it stinks being a fan of this team right now.

Speak for yourself. Not everyone shares your woe is me attitude.

I think this is the best time to be a fan in the last 3 years.

[djoctagone]

So, going back to the OF situation...

 

1) Move Braun (RHB, 32yo) back to LF. I'd prefer it was 1B, but I think LF is realistic for this year. He would become more neutral defensively in LF from what I've seen on D-metrics. We have better, younger defensive OFers that can cover the more difficult RF spot.

the brewers are indeed considering moving braun back to lf.

[RobertR]

Good. I'd like it if the team played some defense this season. Who knows, they'll miss Davis' s bat but the defense could make up for that.

[Boomer5]

LF: Braun

CF: Broxton

RF: Santana

 

Thats your best two way OF from everything I can gather. I can still see a Braun trade once they find a partner and he shows he is healthy. Little reason to keep him on the team at that point. Plus with his contract off the books they can absorb some short term bad contracts in exchange for prospects like the Hill/Diaz deal. Lets just hope Stewart stays employed for another year or two.

 

Im not sure what is wrong with Liriano but something must be for SD to flat out give up on him.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Ok, I keep reading from the defenders of Stearns stuff like "Well Santana will be more productive than Davis" and that they "had to find a spot for him" as a defense for not getting more back for Davis. Really?

 

Even the most strident supporters of Santana when he was acquired thought the big advantage of playing him in CF was to evaluate whether or not he could handle major league pitching to the point where it made sense to move either Davis or Braun. Nobody really knows for sure on him. What's changed since last year other than an awful few dozen games in winter ball. Now he's going to be out there with no net whatsoever and counted on to produce like a corner OF? Man it stinks being a fan of this team right now. For the first time in I don't know how long, I'm not looking forward to a baseball season. I'm sure I'll have plenty of "I told you so" moments, but I enjoy baseball for the entertainment value of it and frankly I don't expect this season to be the least bit entertaining.

 

 

 

http://awesomegifs.com/wp-content/uploads/dead-horse.gif

[Mudville9]

I think we have to remember also that Braun was "hoping" to be ready for the start of the regular season, but that is no sure thing. If Bruan and Flores are both on the DL to start the season, that opens a lot of time and AB's for the others. If someone really tears up Spring training, we might see another trade for a lottery ticket type when Flores and Braun come back. I would just be happy to see everyone gets lots looks to see what we have.

 

I would love to see us keep Liriano, but if he really stinks up Spring training he might be gone. I would much rather take a chance on him with a down spring, than keep Newenheis (?) if he has a good spring as he will not be part of the plans in the next couple years anyway.

[1992casey]

I think that Santana in right and Braun in left makes the most sense. But in the interest of flexibility, I'd like to see both players considered to be options for both corners, depending on who's on the field at the time. Hopefully, there's enough defense on the team that Ryan wouldn't be in right field very often. But if a superior right fielder is in the game, Domingo should be able to move over to left.

[CheezWizHed]

I have to imagine (or hope) that Nieuwenhuis is here in the event that everyone else flops in ST. He has no upside anymore, but he also has enough MLB experience so that you know he won't be a complete flop. He is a bad starter or decent 4 OFer with good D. So, I expect that Liriano and Broxton (in that order) will get first crack at the starting CF job. But if they completely fail, Nieuwenhuis would be the safety blanket.

[JohnBriggs12]

Ok you guys want me to provide positives? Flores might be the best 4th OF in the division by the end of the season. Of course he'll likely be starting for the Brewers by then. Other than the Segura trade, I loved the Sardinas for Flores.

 

Broxton: 967 career strikeouts compared to 762 career hits. That's not encouraging. Sorry.

 

I know you guys get a sense of great accomplishment and pride in your team when it's system is highly rated. I don't. I view baseball as entertainment 162 times a year. When I'm not entertained by my team, I'm cranky. That's what happens when you get to my age. I don't see much entertainment for 6 months starting in April.

[brewerfan82]

Broxton: 967 career strikeouts compared to 762 career hits. That's not encouraging. Sorry.

 

Some players who had more strikeouts than hits last year (at least a 1.16 K per hit):

 

[pre]PLAYER TEAM AB R H HR RBI BB SO OPS WAR

Kris Bryant CHC 559 87 154 26 99 77 199 .858 6.0

Chris Davis BAL 573 100 150 47 117 84 208 .923 5.2

Justin Upton SD 542 85 136 26 81 68 159 .790 4.4

Addison Russell CHC 475 60 115 13 54 42 149 .696 3.4

Lucas Duda NYM 471 67 115 27 73 66 138 .838 3.0

Colby Rasmus HOU 432 67 103 25 61 47 154 .789 2.6

Joc Pederson LAD 480 67 101 26 54 92 170 .763 2.3

Ian Desmond WSH 583 69 136 19 62 45 187 .674 2.0[/pre]

[JohnBriggs12]

Broxton: 967 career strikeouts compared to 762 career hits. That's not encouraging. Sorry.

 

Some players who had more strikeouts than hits last year (at least a 1.16 K per hit):

 

[pre]PLAYER TEAM AB R H HR RBI BB SO OPS WAR

Kris Bryant CHC 559 87 154 26 99 77 199 .858 6.0

Chris Davis BAL 573 100 150 47 117 84 208 .923 5.2

Justin Upton SD 542 85 136 26 81 68 159 .790 4.4

Addison Russell CHC 475 60 115 13 54 42 149 .696 3.4

Lucas Duda NYM 471 67 115 27 73 66 138 .838 3.0

Colby Rasmus HOU 432 67 103 25 61 47 154 .789 2.6

Joc Pederson LAD 480 67 101 26 54 92 170 .763 2.3

Ian Desmond WSH 583 69 136 19 62 45 187 .674 2.0[/pre]

 

Apples and oranges. Those are big time power guys. Broxton has some pop but a career minor league slugging percentage of .410 is far cry from the names on that list. He's going to need to put the ball in play a bit better than he's shown. More power to him if he can.

[Oldcity]

Think of 2003-2005. Was it not exciting to see Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gallardo graduate to the big leagues after years of hearing about them? How about when they made the wildcard in 2008 with the homegrown base?

 

This is what the Brewers are gearing up for again. It's been over ten years since they've been able to say that. It will take time, but it should pay off in the long run. It's certainly better than the alternative of playing mediocre baseball with underperforming, overpaid veterans like we've seen the last couple seasons.

[Jenkins5]

Ok you guys want me to provide positives? Flores might be the best 4th OF in the division by the end of the season. Of course he'll likely be starting for the Brewers by then. Other than the Segura trade, I loved the Sardinas for Flores.

 

Broxton: 967 career strikeouts compared to 762 career hits. That's not encouraging. Sorry.

 

I know you guys get a sense of great accomplishment and pride in your team when it's system is highly rated. I don't. I view baseball as entertainment 162 times a year. When I'm not entertained by my team, I'm cranky. That's what happens when you get to my age. I don't see much entertainment for 6 months starting in April.

 

People get excited for different things. You need your Herb Kohl approach to enjoy it. I am more excited to watch the process and players get chances and blossom. That is my favorite thing about baseball. Being able to follow a prospect through the system, see them get there chance, and how they grow. I am a teacher and a coach so to me, that is where my passion lies. In my time as a Brewer fan, there is no more exciting period for me than the 2004-2008 period. I found this site in 8th grade or 9th grade back in 2002. That is where I started to follow the minor league system closely and the MLB was brutal. Following Hardy, Hart, Fielder, Hendrickson, Weeks,B. Nelson, Gywnn Jr, Parra then Gallardo & Braun etc. travel through the system and then finally start hitting majors was great! Hart cranking a monster HR in his first AB that just went foul. Weeks and Fielder getting 1st bombs same day....following them to grow into a contender. Macha came and destroyed player development and wrecked two years of us competing for a championship.

 

To me Santana, Liriano, Broxton, Flores, Cecchini, Villar are the reason I watch this year. I want to see those at bats. At the end of last year, if Davies, Lopez or another young arm wasn't on the mound or if Santana wasn't in line-up, I usually didn't even watch. I was excited to see Domingo get his ABs and Davies hit the mound. Win or lose, doesn't matter. Ill go to games because I love to go to games with friends and family and I love to watch baseball. Winning or losing have no impact on that.

 

I think CC will do a good job with the OF. Liriano will probably be the "starting CF" but they most likely will have a 4 man rotation with Liriano the main LF/RF Backup. The biggest question is who the other 2 OFs will be. Flores if healthy for Spring I think will make it, out of options. Niewenhuis, Broxton, EY jr compete for last spot

[CheezWizHed]

I know you guys get a sense of great accomplishment and pride in your team when it's system is highly rated. I don't. I view baseball as entertainment 162 times a year. When I'm not entertained by my team, I'm cranky. That's what happens when you get to my age. I don't see much entertainment for 6 months starting in April.

 

I don't think anyone here is saying, "Hooray! We are going to suck this year! Its going to be so much fun to lose 90+ games!"

 

I think most people are focusing on two things:

1) In our current situation, this is the best direction forward to bring us into playoff contention again and not just a .500 team.

2) Most of us fancy ourselves as arm-chair GMs. Thus, we analyze moves, propose trades, speculate on drafts and look into minutia of player details and abilities.

 

So we all know that we are going to lose this year. But we take solace in making things better in the long term rather than focusing on one more win in 2016.

[3and2Fastball]

Think of 2003-2005. Was it not exciting to see Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gallardo graduate to the big leagues after years of hearing about them? How about when they made the wildcard in 2008 with the homegrown base?

 

This is what the Brewers are gearing up for again. It's been over ten years since they've been able to say that.

 

What I like about Stearns is that he is saying that the Brewers will consistently need to keep replenishing the farm system & MLB roster w/ controllable young talent. Melvin went the opposite way once Weeks/Fielder/Hart/Braun etc got to the Show, transforming the Brewers into a team that extended it's own stars consistently (Bill Hall as an example of the worst type of mistake) and signed free agent, aging pitchers (Looper/Suppan etc). That plan ultimately backfired, longterm, and brought us to where we are today as one of the Worst 5 MLB teams

[MrTPlush]

Think of 2003-2005. Was it not exciting to see Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gallardo graduate to the big leagues after years of hearing about them? How about when they made the wildcard in 2008 with the homegrown base?

 

This is what the Brewers are gearing up for again. It's been over ten years since they've been able to say that.

 

What I like about Stearns is that he is saying that the Brewers will consistently need to keep replenishing the farm system & MLB roster w/ controllable young talent. Melvin went the opposite way once Weeks/Fielder/Hart/Braun etc got to the Show, transforming the Brewers into a team that extended it's own stars consistently (Bill Hall as an example of the worst type of mistake) and signed free agent, aging pitchers (Looper/Suppan etc). That plan ultimately backfired, longterm, and brought us to where we are today as one of the Worst 5 MLB teams

 

That was not the problem. The real problem was the horrid drafting for an extended period of time and Attanasio's inability to not spend every dollar trying to compete EVERY year. Those two things are what lead to where we are today.

[reillymcshane]

Think of 2003-2005. Was it not exciting to see Rickie Weeks, Prince Fielder, Corey Hart, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, and Yovani Gallardo graduate to the big leagues after years of hearing about them? How about when they made the wildcard in 2008 with the homegrown base?

 

This is what the Brewers are gearing up for again. It's been over ten years since they've been able to say that.

 

What I like about Stearns is that he is saying that the Brewers will consistently need to keep replenishing the farm system & MLB roster w/ controllable young talent. Melvin went the opposite way once Weeks/Fielder/Hart/Braun etc got to the Show, transforming the Brewers into a team that extended it's own stars consistently (Bill Hall as an example of the worst type of mistake) and signed free agent, aging pitchers (Looper/Suppan etc). That plan ultimately backfired, longterm, and brought us to where we are today as one of the Worst 5 MLB teams

 

That was not the problem. The real problem was the horrid drafting for an extended period of time and Attanasio's inability to not spend every dollar trying to compete EVERY year. Those two things are what lead to where we are today.

I think the all the issues fed into each other.

 

We built a young, talented team. We supplemented the talent with some free agents and some trades. But things went sideways. No one plans to draft poorly - yet it happened, and the idea of continuing to add young, cheap talent just never materialized. We were forced to make more free agent signings and more trades than we wanted - the result being a bad farm system coupled with diminishing on field production.

 

As noted, our drafts were pretty bad for a while. What guys we hit on we often dealt to fill roster holes. It's a strategy that will usually lead to a collapse - sooner or later.

[MrTPlush]

But things went sideways.

 

The worst thing about that was the fact it was hard for management to commit to a tear down. You aren't going to do it after 2011, you won't after winning 83 in 2012, could have after 2013 but..., in 2014 they should have won the division so hard to blame them for going for it in 2014, and I think when it came to 2015 I think Attanasio wanted one last chance.

 

Yah it is easy to look back in retrospect and say they should have tore down, but in the moment it wasn't so straight forward. Only 1/10 fans would have supported a tear down before last year started.

 

ANYWAY back onto the real topic I wonder how much Braun has a say in going back to LF. I'd think he would be in full support for a move back, but then again maybe he actually thinks he is good out in RF...

[superfly]

Ok you guys want me to provide positives? Flores might be the best 4th OF in the division by the end of the season. Of course he'll likely be starting for the Brewers by then. Other than the Segura trade, I loved the Sardinas for Flores.

 

Broxton: 967 career strikeouts compared to 762 career hits. That's not encouraging. Sorry.

 

I know you guys get a sense of great accomplishment and pride in your team when it's system is highly rated. I don't. I view baseball as entertainment 162 times a year. When I'm not entertained by my team, I'm cranky. That's what happens when you get to my age. I don't see much entertainment for 6 months starting in April.

 

CHris Davis has 1090 career strikeouts and 797 career hits. Miguel Sano has 119 career strikeouts and 75 career hits. What exactly is your point? Strikeouts do not infer whether a player is useful or not.

[1992casey]

That plan ultimately backfired, longterm, and brought us to where we are today as one of the Worst 5 MLB teams

 

I wouldn't say that it backfired as much as I'd say that it ran out of steam.

 

 

ANYWAY back onto the real topic I wonder how much Braun has a say in going back to LF. I'd think he would be in full support for a move back, but then again maybe he actually thinks he is good out in RF...

 

I'd highly doubt that he'd have veto power, but I think it's reasonable to assume that he'd be part of the conversation. Based on comments he made when he was moved to right, I don't think there'd be any objection to moving back to left.

[jerichoholicninja]

RF and LF are practically the same position. I understand the throwing arm argument but how many times does a RF make throw to 3B in a season? Two, three, if that? But I don't understand the thinking of putting your worse fielder in LF. Most hitters are right handed and therefore aren't most balls hit to LF? Shouldn't you want your better fielder there? Either way, like I said, the positions are interchangeable and it really makes no difference who plays which one.

[MrTPlush]

RF and LF are practically the same position. I understand the throwing arm argument but how many times does a RF make throw to 3B in a season? Two, three, if that? But I don't understand the thinking of putting your worse fielder in LF. Most hitters are right handed and therefore aren't most balls hit to LF? Shouldn't you want your better fielder there? Either way, like I said, the positions are interchangeable and it really makes no difference who plays which one.

 

You have to consider the throw home too though. Working on assumption RHH typically will hit it harder if they hit it to LF vs. if they slap it to RF.

 

Also while a throw to 3B might not happen as often it is more about preventing it. Stronger arm means the runner is less likely to try and make that advancement.

 

Lastly, if I am correct, I think a majority of stadiums a RFer has to cover more ground. If that means standing a couple feet back that can make a big difference for throws.

 

I also disagree that the two positions are interchangeable. Ryan Braun was much better in LF than he is in RF.

[danzig6767]

So, going back to the OF situation...

 

5) Keon Broxton (RHB, 25yo): Third priority Lottery Ticket. Good defensive CF with speed. Career minors numbers of 253/333/410/743. Not bad for CF, but not great. Might be a late bloomer as he has hit better the last two years. I'd like to see him get a shot over Nieuwenhuis. Won't be Carlos Gomez despite the similar size/speed, but if he can hit is minor league numbers with good CF defense, that is worth a CF starter somewhere (knowing Phillips is coming soon). Looks like he has an option left?

He's my number one lottery ticket and the guy among all of these question mark OF pickups by Stearns that i most want to see play.

 

Really good athlete who has shown improvement at the plate in AA and AAA. Walks at a good rate. Hits a nice number/mix of doubles, triples, and home runs. Haven't been able to get a clear read of his defensive abilities in CF, but nothing screamed that he's a real liability out there.

 

Hopefully Broxton can be a Carlos Gomez type of late bloomer at the plate. Now i'm not expecting the guy to become as good as Carlos, but some sort of Gomez-light would be great.

[reillymcshane]

But things went sideways.

 

The worst thing about that was the fact it was hard for management to commit to a tear down. You aren't going to do it after 2011, you won't after winning 83 in 2012, could have after 2013 but..., in 2014 they should have won the division so hard to blame them for going for it in 2014, and I think when it came to 2015 I think Attanasio wanted one last chance.

 

Yah it is easy to look back in retrospect and say they should have tore down, but in the moment it wasn't so straight forward. Only 1/10 fans would have supported a tear down before last year started.

 

ANYWAY back onto the real topic I wonder how much Braun has a say in going back to LF. I'd think he would be in full support for a move back, but then again maybe he actually thinks he is good out in RF...

Yes, it was hard for management to tear down. I understand why we did things in the last few years, even if I didn't agree with them at times. We weren't that good - but we weren't bad. It lead to a patchwork approach to trying to stay afloat (as well as improve), relying on luck as a key element in our strategy (avoiding injuries, guys improving, guys not having bad seasons, etc.).

 

It all sort of just folded in on itself in the 2nd half of 2014 (and kept collapsing last year). It was probably inevitable, but I'm glad we've made a commitment to a new approach.