Lucroy Trades/Proposals

[SRB]

For those of you totally convinced a Lucroy trade needs to happen, which statement more accurately reflects your perspective?

 

A) Trade Lucroy NOW no matter what, even if the best return they can get is not really what you think he should be worth.

 

B) Trade Lucroy only if/when it nets a return of talent commensurate with his value.

 

Obviously you need to bargain with other teams as if you are going with B, but personally I would prefer A. I think there is enormous risk that Lucroy's value will dramatically decrease if he has an injury or poor first half, and I also think he has a somewhat bad attitude about remaining in Milwaukee and playing through the rebuild.

 

I'd prefer they trade him sooner rather than latter, and even if it isn't the greatest possible return, there should be enough teams bidding on him that we get a huge haul either way.

[Jenkins5]

I think it all depends on what is too much for Lucroy. Unlike with Fernandez, we have no clue what the current asking price is. Is it Brinson, Tate, Ortiz, & Matuella? Is it simply asking for Mazara? Is it asking for a combination of 2 of the 3 of Mazara, Brinson, Tate (only want one to be center piece)....plus other prospects? Is it they are asking for bonus babies like Tavares who Rangers are not ready to move on from?

 

Without knowing who Brewers are asking for or who Rangers are willing to give up. Hard to say if the trade we get back will be good enough. If DS is asking for the moon, maybe landing amongst the stars (a compromise) would still be very good.

 

Read an Article that mention the A's to be in the mix with Nationals & Rangers. They don't have many high end prospects but no shortage of power bats. If you want 1B or 3B prospects, they have some to offer.

 

No deal can be done without Barreto or Manaea. There system isn't strong enough. If we could land Lucroy for Manaea, Olson, Nottingham, and young low level prospect

 

SS Franklin Barreto is not that great of of a defender at SS and I see him more as a 2B. Not a bad kid to match with Arcia. Age 18, hit .311/.384/.481 with 29 steals in the Northwest League. Then at 19 he hit Age 19, hit .302/.333/.500 with 13 bombs. He has a lot of pop in his 5'9 175 frame. Should be 20 in AA this season.

 

1B Matt Olson is a soon to be 22 year old masher. His power and discipline is arguably one of the best in all of minor league baseball. Reason he is not as highly rated (top 100 rankings) is because hit doesn't hit for much average. At MLB level he would most likely be a .250 hitter type hitter. That doesn't bug me though when he is going to walk over 100 a season

 

LHP Sean Manaea is a well know lefty who was traded from Kansas City. He is one of the better lefties in the minors but has had injury issues. He was healthy in 2014, dominated. Was healthy 2nd half of 2015, dominated AA. He signed for a 3.65 million dollar bonus as the 34th overall pick in the draft. Was considered prime candidate for #1 overall pick prior to injury.

 

3B Matt Chapman is former 1st round pick who is a gold glove type of 3B with power. He really is your prototypical third baseman but not sure he will hit enough average. He will be 23 in AA this season and has improved over his first two years

 

3B Renito Nunez will be 22 in AA and is another Powerful 3B prospect. Okay defense but with him you are buying in on his power.

 

SS/3B Chad Pinder will be 24 in AAA and is a solid defender at SS/3B/2B. Gives versitility, he hits for average, has some power, but strike zone control is an issue

 

SS Richie Martin- 1st round pick, was a good college player at Florida. Good defender, bat is solid.

 

C Jacob Nottingham- is a stud athlete who has good power, hits for average, and is improving behind the plate. He will be 21 and is a nice catching prospect to bring in.

 

RHP Casey Meisner is a prospect I really like from the Mets who is big & projectable, with good command of strike zone. Has been very good so far in his career. Be 21 this season.

 

SS Yairo Munoz made it to A+ at 19. Has a solid approach at the plate, has some pop, and has made great strides every year.

 

OF Skye Bolt has awesome name, was incredible as a freshman but has yet to ever really get back to form. Very good athlete.

 

RHP Dylan Covey only put him down because of Brewer history

[monty57]

Personally I don't want to see Lucroy traded in spite of the rebuild situation, but I'm very aware it's a possibility. . . . . I'm also not sold on the likelihood that the total tear-down approach is the Brewers' absolute best option given that at least 3 other teams seem to be in the exact same position (Reds, Braves, Phillies) and the more teams there are taking that approach, the less likely any one individual team will achieve the desired outcome. . . . Personally I'm also skeptical of the long-term sustainability of the Cubs/Astros approach. The Cubs now have basically abandoned that since they're now spending huge money left and right, and the Astros only barely made the playoffs, made several prospects-for-vets deals at the deadlines, and there's no guarantee they're headed toward a better 2016 than their 2015.

 

I like what the Brewers have done thus far -- I think it's what they've needed to do -- but I'd still rather that Stearns' vision is uniquely his own, not a total copycat like many here essentially advocate, and the Brewers' approach over the next few years becomes the model that many other teams hope to follow.

 

I agree, but think that anyone who is only here another year or two are guys that should be traded. Lind was obvious, and I feel Lucroy should be dealt because (a) he could bring back a very big return, and (b) I don't think they should risk signing him to a long-term deal, so he's only here two years, and we probably won't be good during that time frame.

 

A total rebuild would mean trading guys like Nelson, and no one is calling for that. Davis is only mentioned because we have depth at corner OF. Ditto Braun, with the addition of a lot more money going to him.

 

I think overall the Brewer rebuild will be different than other teams' rebuilds, largely because we don't have any albatross contracts on the books, and we have a decent farm. Stearns is adding talent at all levels, and I have no doubt that once the time comes Attanasio will open the purse strings to add MLB talent. If he's going to model his franchise after anyone, I hope it's the Rays, but that's tough to do. As we saw this year, once a team comes out of the doldrums and starts playing well, the fans and media hound management to sell the farm to make a deadline deal.

 

As to your first question, I think Lucroy should be traded this offseason, as one foul tip could end his career, and that's too much risk for a team in the Brewers' position to take. Of course you don't give him away, but if Stearns can get a big return for him, even if it's somewhat less than what he had hoped for, I think he should make the deal.

 

I look at it this way... if he doesn't get traded and plays well, he may up his value a little, but not that much, as other GMs already know what type of player he is. The big change in value would come if and only if the market shifts (i.e. a playoff bound team loses their catcher to a career-threatening injury), and the potential upside (relative to what they'd get by trading him now) is probably another prospect thrown in, or a little better top-end guy in the deal. However, if he doesn't get traded and gets another concussion, his career could be over and the Brewers get nothing for him. Weighing risk vs. return, it seems like the smart move is to trade him.

[bill hAll Star]

The Cubs have not abandoned their plan as suggested by someone above in this thread. The benefit of a full-scale rebuild like this is you have 3 years of very low salary players and even more wiggle room a few years after to go with it.

 

They are a large market so their payroll was big to start and has much more room to grow, but they had a "low" payroll by their standards and were able to squeeze in some vets short-term while guys like Kris Bryant make 500k annually. 2-3 years from now, they'll pay Arrieta, give Schwarber/Bryant extensions beyond their arby years if possible, etc.

 

In the Brewers' case, let's say that Phillips, Arcia, Lopez, etc. have the team on a very promising track in 2018. Assuming they don't make any stupid moves from now until then, they'll have payroll at about $55 million (Braun plus a bunch of pre-arby contracts). Assuming their budget at that point is $110-120 million, they can go out and sign or absorb short-term role players and even sign a mega-contract if they really choose to (not advocating that they should). If they really signed one fairly massive contract (plus a bunch of 3 year/30 million type vet filler deals), the mega contract would essentially just replace Braun's once they need to start paying guys.

 

Of course, I'd prefer they even play it safe on bigger contracts and only sign support players and try to sign their own pre-arby. However, the point remains that if you have a nuclear rebuild and have 5-6 stud players all making league minimum, you have a short term window to supplement said players with short-term fillers on the positions that you missed at during your rebuild.

[monty57]

However, the point remains that if you have a nuclear rebuild and have 5-6 stud players all making league minimum, you have a short term window to supplement said players with short-term fillers on the positions that you missed at during your rebuild.

 

...and if you have talent at all levels of the system, you should be able to continually replace guys who leave with guys making league minimum, keeping the payroll manageable.

 

To topic, a Lucroy trade will help with this. He could probably bring back a stud who is near MLB ready to go along with Arcia and Phillips to be a very solid group to build around for 6+ years (assuming some extensions for the stars). Plus, he should bring in some good players in the lower minors who could help around the time the aforementioned group near arby, and around the time Braun's contract is nearing it's end (assuming he's still around) and guys like Nelson are nearing free agency, potentially allowing them to be traded rather than being lost for nothing.

[pacopete4]

They should be looking for prospects to add that are near ready like Arcia and Phillips. The more of a nucleus we have with those guys, the better chance we have.

[Bnowell4evr]

I think it all depends on what is too much for Lucroy. Unlike with Fernandez, we have no clue what the current asking price is. Is it Brinson, Tate, Ortiz, & Matuella? Is it simply asking for Mazara? Is it asking for a combination of 2 of the 3 of Mazara, Brinson, Tate (only want one to be center piece)....plus other prospects? Is it they are asking for bonus babies like Tavares who Rangers are not ready to move on from?

 

Without knowing who Brewers are asking for or who Rangers are willing to give up. Hard to say if the trade we get back will be good enough. If DS is asking for the moon, maybe landing amongst the stars (a compromise) would still be very good.

 

Read an Article that mention the A's to be in the mix with Nationals & Rangers. They don't have many high end prospects but no shortage of power bats. If you want 1B or 3B prospects, they have some to offer.

 

No deal can be done without Barreto or Manaea. There system isn't strong enough. If we could land Lucroy for Manaea, Olson, Nottingham, and young low level prospect

 

The A's match up well with what we lack in our system but I don't see how Lucroy is a need for them. Stephen Vogt is coming off a really good season and seems to be entrenched in the starting lineup. It's a shame because I would take that package in an instant.

[Jenkins5]

I think it all depends on what is too much for Lucroy. Unlike with Fernandez, we have no clue what the current asking price is. Is it Brinson, Tate, Ortiz, & Matuella? Is it simply asking for Mazara? Is it asking for a combination of 2 of the 3 of Mazara, Brinson, Tate (only want one to be center piece)....plus other prospects? Is it they are asking for bonus babies like Tavares who Rangers are not ready to move on from?

 

Without knowing who Brewers are asking for or who Rangers are willing to give up. Hard to say if the trade we get back will be good enough. If DS is asking for the moon, maybe landing amongst the stars (a compromise) would still be very good.

 

Read an Article that mention the A's to be in the mix with Nationals & Rangers. They don't have many high end prospects but no shortage of power bats. If you want 1B or 3B prospects, they have some to offer.

 

No deal can be done without Barreto or Manaea. There system isn't strong enough. If we could land Lucroy for Manaea, Olson, Nottingham, and young low level prospect

 

The A's match up well with what we lack in our system but I don't see how Lucroy is a need for them. Stephen Vogt is coming off a really good season and seems to be entrenched in the starting lineup. It's a shame because I would take that package in an instant.

 

Yeah I didn't really get it either but ione of the articles I read early (I'll have to try to find link) mentioned Rangers, A's, & Nationals as the three teams that have had the most contact but are now backing off due to the asking price.

[Jenkins5]

Here is an article that discusses everything well. Exactly what I said early about needing to trade him now. He loses too much value as his controllable contract ticks away & value is unlikely to increase enough that it is worth the risk of an injury or performing bad. http://mweb.cbssports.com/mlb/eye-on-baseball/25453870

[Eye Black]

Yeah I didn't really get it either but ione of the articles I read early (I'll have to try to find link) mentioned Rangers, A's, & Nationals as the three teams that have had the most contact but are now backing off due to the asking price.

It was in Ken Rosenthal's ARTICLE from earlier today...

 

The Rangers, Athletics and Nationals are among the teams that have engaged in trade discussions with the Brewers about catcher Jonathan Lucroy, only to back off when they perceived the price to be too high, according to major-league sources.

 

Lucroy, who has a limited no-trade clause, remains a candidate to get moved. The Padres’ Derek Norris is another catcher who is available in trade.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Stearns is absolutely correct to ask for the moon in a Lucroy trade. Contrary to these articles, the asking price isn't too high, it's the offers that are too low.

 

If contending teams that want a catcher upgrade don't want to pony up, they can pound sand, IMO. The brewers do not have to unload him before spring training starts, while the teams that want Luc would probably want to bring him in asap. Milwaukee holds the cards and shouldn't budge. some team will offer the moon eventually.

[Eye Black]

YG1, very nice summary on the Rangers prospects. I agree with you on just about every one of your "prospects to target". I also agree that I would include Matuella over Dillon Tate in hopes that you could get more value elsewhere in the deal. I really like Yohander Mendez as a pitcher that could develop into an elite player. The one target I am a little weary of is Ti'quan Forbes since I would like to see some evidence of power before considering him a viable 3B prospect. I would be interested in a package of Lewis Brinson, Michael Matuella, and Yohander Mendez, not sure if that is considered the moon or a step below?

 

Regarding the A's, I think some combination of the prospects mentioned would have to be in the deal. I guess one other thing to keep in mind is the A's do have the second pick of the draft lottery Competative Balance Round A (currently projected as pick #39) that they can trade as well. Like others mentioned though, the A's seem like a stretch at this point.

[pacopete4]

Stearns is absolutely correct to ask for the moon in a Lucroy trade. Contrary to these articles, the asking price isn't too high, it's the offers that are too low.

 

 

Yeah but we are the Brewers so we need to bow down to all these other teams and just hand them our good players for very little on the return.

[reillymcshane]

 

3B Matt Chapman is former 1st round pick who is a gold glove type of 3B with power. He really is your prototypical third baseman but not sure he will hit enough average. He will be 23 in AA this season and has improved over his first two years

I really like Chapman. As you note, a Gold Glove type guy. He's got big, big power, but the hit tool is lacking (and I don't know if it is good enough to reach the majors). He's probably lucky if he hits .250. If he can improve his average just a bit at AA, he'll be nice prospect.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding the asking price of Lucroy, I'd rather make a good deal now rather than wait and hope we can make a better one later. That doesn't mean you take a bad deal - but you need to be realistic. I look at what we got for Gomez last year - at top 50 prospect (Phillips), a top 100 prospect (Santana), plus to interesting arms (Houser and Hader) - as a solid starting point. If we could get that kind of haul, I'd do it now. If we can't find something similar, then I'm okay waiting.

 

I also don't really care that we don't have any obvious replacement for Lucroy in the minor league system. Right now, it's about getting the best talent available. Sure I want a stud catcher prospect, but let's face it, we aren't going to be winning for a few years. We can use that time to fill the catcher position in another way. We have the luxury of using stopgap players or taking some risks on other guys. Perhaps we end up going the FA route - who knows - a lot can happen in two years.

[bill hAll Star]

Remember that Fiers was included for that Gomez package.

[Jenkins5]

 

3B Matt Chapman is former 1st round pick who is a gold glove type of 3B with power. He really is your prototypical third baseman but not sure he will hit enough average. He will be 23 in AA this season and has improved over his first two years

I really like Chapman. As you note, a Gold Glove type guy. He's got big, big power, but the hit tool is lacking (and I don't know if it is good enough to reach the majors). He's probably lucky if he hits .250. If he can improve his average just a bit at AA, he'll be nice prospect.

 

I think Matt Dominguez with Chapman. Gold Glove Defense, big power, but just doesn't hit or walk enough to stick.

[bill hAll Star]

 

3B Matt Chapman is former 1st round pick who is a gold glove type of 3B with power. He really is your prototypical third baseman but not sure he will hit enough average. He will be 23 in AA this season and has improved over his first two years

I really like Chapman. As you note, a Gold Glove type guy. He's got big, big power, but the hit tool is lacking (and I don't know if it is good enough to reach the majors). He's probably lucky if he hits .250. If he can improve his average just a bit at AA, he'll be nice prospect.

 

I think Matt Dominguez with Chapman. Gold Glove Defense, big power, but just doesn't hit or walk enough to stick.

 

I have no idea about Chapman's future - but Dominguez never had a good season at the plate at any point in his professional career. Chapman at least just had one.

[anglotiger]

Remember that Fiers was included for that Gomez package.

 

True, but also remember that Gomez was about to become a free agent, and the Brewers had a day to trade him or be content with a compensatory pick when he left. Lucroy is under contract for the next two years.

[bill hAll Star]

Remember that Fiers was included for that Gomez package.

 

True, but also remember that Gomez was about to become a free agent, and the Brewers had a day to trade him or be content with a compensatory pick when he left. Lucroy is under contract for the next two years.

 

Gomez had another year left on his contract after 2015. He's still with the Astros this year.

[anglotiger]

Remember that Fiers was included for that Gomez package.

 

True, but also remember that Gomez was about to become a free agent, and the Brewers had a day to trade him or be content with a compensatory pick when he left. Lucroy is under contract for the next two years.

 

Gomez had another year left on his contract after 2015. He's still with the Astros this year.

 

Oh drat. You're right...

 

Well, an additional half a year of control counts for something...

[monty57]

They're not exactly apples-to-apples, but the Gomez/Fiers trade is a bogey for us to see what we could potentially return in a Lucroy trade. To me, a return of anything similar talent-wise heavily outweighs the value of keeping Lucroy on the Brewers for another year or two.

 

As I mentioned earlier, I envision getting another player of similar talent and expected MLB debut date to Arcia and Phillips. That would give us a very solid core to build around for a whole lot of years. Any additional players that come over would likely be a little younger, and hopefully would reach the majors and provide league-minimum talent when the aforementioned core starts to make some money.

[pacopete4]

http://www.jsonline.com/sports/brewers/jonathan-lucroy-thinks-trade-would-be-best-for-him-and-brewers-b99654302z1-365824811.html

 

"I'm not going to sit here and say we're going to compete for the playoffs this year," Lucroy said in a telephone interview Tuesday afternoon while running errands back home in Lafayette, La. "If I did that, you'd call me a liar. I'd lose credibility and respect.

 

"I want to win and I don't see us winning in the foreseeable future. I want to go to a World Series. That's what all players want. Rebuilding is not a lot of fun for any veteran guy."

 

 

Trade him now. Doesn't want to be here. Get him outta that Brewers uniform as soon as possible. I want people who want to be in Milwaukee. Doesn't sound too much like a leader.

[Bnowell4evr]

If the Rangers could somehow get Lucroy for a package that doesn't include top prospects Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Dillon Tate, it'd be an enticing offer. If they could get away without including Lewis Brinson, then they'd almost certainly pull the trigger, but that might not be realistic from the Brewers' perspective

 

http://www.nbcdfw.com/blogs/red-fever/Brewers-Continue-to-Discuss-Lucroy-Option-365007181.html

 

 

Is there a way you could make this deal happen without Gallo, Mazara, Tate and Brinson? I think you could work something out but the Rangers might need to give up a 5th piece in return.

 

Something like RHP Luis Ortiz, RHP Michael Matuella, LHP Yohander Mendez, 2B/3B Josh Morgan and a throw in like Ronald Guzman would do it for me personally.

[trwi7]

If the Rangers could somehow get Lucroy for a package that doesn't include top prospects Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Dillon Tate, it'd be an enticing offer. If they could get away without including Lewis Brinson, then they'd almost certainly pull the trigger, but that might not be realistic from the Brewers' perspective

 

Yeah, no kidding. Taking your top 4 prospects off the table to get an all-star catcher would probably be preferable for the Rangers and might not be realisitic from the Brewers' perspective.