Lucroy Trades/Proposals

[CheezWizHed]

I don't think you can hold a broken toe and a concussion against him.

 

There is a huge difference between a broken toe and a concussion.

 

When a player starts missing a large period of time, it gets to be a bit worrisome. Corey Koskie is an extreme example, but certainly something people are leery of these days. Good to hear he is working out, but just the fact that they didn't have him catch again has to make some people pause when considering making a big trade for him.

[3and2Fastball]

Lucroy hasn't played catcher since getting the concussion. I'm sure that is effecting trade value, or perceived trade value, or negotiations. His bat is very "average" if he can't play Catcher. And a concussion isn't (I think?) like a torn ligament where you can get definitive proof on the degree of injury or recovery.

[jerichoholicninja]

Agree with everyone who says the concussion is what could lower his value. He could be fine or he could be one foul tip from never playing again.

[Eye Black]

Fangraphs speculation about sending Lucroy to the Rangers...

 

Let's Get Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers

By Jeff Sullivan / January 15, 2016

 

The last paragraph efficiently summarizes the article for those that want to get straight to the point...

 

So this is where I’ve gotten to. The Rangers make obvious sense for Jonathan Lucroy. The Rangers have players the Brewers would like. Building around Profar might be nuts, so I’ll eliminate that as a dream, but I could see an eventual compromise around Tate or Brinson, if the Brewers are willing to give up hope for Gallo or Mazara. Perhaps the Brewers just won’t get to that point, but I don’t think they want to chance it with Lucroy entering the season in Milwaukee. Not as long as the Rangers offer enough to make a trade make sense.

 

[NievesNoNO]

The more I think about it the more I think they can't wait until the deadline to move him unless they flat out are getting low ball offers. Lucroy seems like a true pro so maybe this doesn't come into play as much as I might think. But the guy sounded like he wanted an extension in Milwaukee a year or so back. The Brewers turned him away. Now, if he makes it past the first couple months healthy he knows he's getting traded. Professional or not, that's a tough situation going into the season knowing that you're not part of the team's future or current plans. It might be different if he was playing for his next contract but he's not so you also risk, even if he's healthy, him just playing flat or unmotivated.

[trwi7]

Fangraphs speculation about sending Lucroy to the Rangers...

 

Let's Get Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers

By Jeff Sullivan / January 15, 2016

 

The last paragraph efficiently summarizes the article for those that want to get straight to the point...

 

So this is where I’ve gotten to. The Rangers make obvious sense for Jonathan Lucroy. The Rangers have players the Brewers would like. Building around Profar might be nuts, so I’ll eliminate that as a dream, but I could see an eventual compromise around Tate or Brinson, if the Brewers are willing to give up hope for Gallo or Mazara. Perhaps the Brewers just won’t get to that point, but I don’t think they want to chance it with Lucroy entering the season in Milwaukee. Not as long as the Rangers offer enough to make a trade make sense.

 

Tate or Brinson? Sorry, if you deem two of your prospects untouchable, you don't get to choose only one of your next best prospects to put in a deal. You put in both, or you don't get Lucroy.

 

If this is what the Rangers are doing, Stearns shouldn't budge. We shouldn't settle for a teams' third or fourth best prospect and filler for one of if not the best players on the trade block.

[pacopete4]

Fangraphs speculation about sending Lucroy to the Rangers...

 

Let's Get Jonathan Lucroy to the Rangers

By Jeff Sullivan / January 15, 2016

 

The last paragraph efficiently summarizes the article for those that want to get straight to the point...

 

So this is where I’ve gotten to. The Rangers make obvious sense for Jonathan Lucroy. The Rangers have players the Brewers would like. Building around Profar might be nuts, so I’ll eliminate that as a dream, but I could see an eventual compromise around Tate or Brinson, if the Brewers are willing to give up hope for Gallo or Mazara. Perhaps the Brewers just won’t get to that point, but I don’t think they want to chance it with Lucroy entering the season in Milwaukee. Not as long as the Rangers offer enough to make a trade make sense.

 

Tate or Brinson? Sorry, if you deem two of your prospects untouchable, you don't get to choose only one of your next best prospects to put in a deal. You put in both, or you don't get Lucroy.

 

If this is what the Rangers are doing, Stearns shouldn't budge. We shouldn't settle for a teams' third or fourth best prospect and filler for one of if not the best players on the trade block.

 

 

I completely agree. If #1 & #2 are off the table we either move on or we get #3, #4 and heck, #5 if we want em.

[SRB]

Tate is not a bad centerpiece though. The Rangers also have some other potential front-of-the-rotation pitching prospects in the low minors who would fit well with the Brewers in RHP Luis Ortiz and LHP Yohander Mendez (who might even be ranked higher than Tate at this point, I don't know).

 

I would trade Lucroy for RHP Donovan Tate, RHP Luis Ortiz, and LHP Yohander Mendez. Maybe throw in a useful lottery ticket like 1B Ronald Guzman (big international prospect signed at the same time as Guzman, but still a project)

[trwi7]

Tate is not a bad centerpiece though. The Rangers also have some other potential front-of-the-rotation pitching prospects in the low minors who would fit well with the Brewers in RHP Luis Ortiz and LHP Yohander Mendez (who might even be ranked higher than Tate at this point, I don't know).

 

I would trade Lucroy for RHP Donovan Tate, RHP Luis Ortiz, and LHP Yohander Mendez. Maybe throw in a useful lottery ticket like 1B Ronald Guzman (big international prospect signed at the same time as Guzman, but still a project)

 

I agree I could get on board with that but the way Sullivan had it was one of Tate or Brinson and then just filler pieces like Chi Chi Gonzalez or Patrick Kivlehan (who was only posted because he might be an upgrade over Middlebrooks, like we care about an upgrade over Middlebrooks now.)

 

If Gallo and Mazara are off the table, then two of Tate, Brinson and Ortiz need to be on the table. Fillers can be worked out after that but there's no deal to be made for me if we're only getting one of Tate or Brinson and a couple of random, mediocre fillers like Gonzalez and Kivlehan.

[nate82]

 

I would trade Lucroy for RHP Donovan Tate, RHP Luis Ortiz, and LHP Yohander Mendez. Maybe throw in a useful lottery ticket like 1B Ronald Guzman (big international prospect signed at the same time as Guzman, but still a project)

 

I would take Ortiz, Miller, and Forbes.

 

I think you could convince the Rangers to add Matuella in that trade also as he is an extremely risky prospect. So Ortiz, Miller, Forbes, and Matuella would be a nice haul for Lucroy. Ortiz and Matuella both have a ceiling of a #1 type pitcher with Miller having a ceiling of a #2 or #3 type pitcher with a floor of a #5. Then you have Forbes who could be a cornerstone at 3B and I like him better than Gallo and Cordell. While Forbes doesn't have the power that Gallo or even Cordell has he does have a better skill set in terms of contact and patience at the plate than Gallo and Cordell. Defensively Forbes is also going to be better than Gallo and Cordell. I still believe Gallo is going to be playing 1B or the OF in the majors.

[bball26]

I have been following a Texas Rangers forum over the past couple of weeks and they believe the asking price is absurd for Lucroy. I saw comments on there where guys wouldn't give Mazara up for Lucroy but some were okay with dealing Gallo. Most of them are hung on the fact that he had a concussion and wasn't very productive in 2015.

 

Looking at Lucroy from my perspective, he seems like he would be a great add for the Rangers. $9.25 million for 2 years of one of the top catchers is a steal. It saves them money for the next two years and gives the rangers flexibility if they need to add elsewhere. He can take over first base for Moreland when they face lefties and he'd be a great fit in the top of that order. Yes, he had injury concerns last year but after he came back from that broken toe and hamstring injury in the first half, he posted very strong second half numbers with a slash line of .289/.347/.461. Of the catchers who played at least 40 of the games after the all-star break, he was second in ops (.808), trailing only Buster Posey.

 

A trade for me would have to start with Brinson, Tate, or Ortiz for Lucroy. Possibly even 2 of the 3. As for rounding out the deal if we could only snatch 1 of those 3, I'm pretty high on Ti'Quan Forbes, who could fill our black hole at 3rd base in our system. I also would take a long look at Michael Matuella. He has top of the rotation upside and we need that in our system.

[Jenkins5]

I have liked Ortiz since the draft, wanted him over Kodi however, due to weight issues, I'd pass on him. He ballooned in High School before getting serious before senior year. Now he has put it all back on. He isn't 6'7 like CC and can hold 270-300 well. Think it's said he is back up to 250-260. That does play well for health. Sure Colon and some other pitchers have done fine from being overweight but that's not the rule.

 

Tate & Matuella I think offer more. Both #1 overall quality arms coming out. If Matuella's arm regains form, he'd be a steal as the 2nd guy in the trade.

 

Brinson I'd take over Mazara. Brinson has continued to really improve his game.

 

Odor or Profar are also two guys who Rangers have to decide on who is their future. Gladly take Profar from them.

 

Forbes is the classic young Boom or bust talent I could DS going for otherwise any of their young international bonus babies.

[bball26]

I agree on the Ortiz weight issue, I'd pass on someone who can't stay in shape. I think they are really high on Tate, but if we could get Brinson and Matuella/Profar, that'd be a great haul. Brinson definitely seemed to improve his plate discipline last year and he's got all the tools.

 

Arcia and Profar up the middle would be pretty fun to watch if they both live up to their potential.

[reillymcshane]

Tate and Matuella, plus maybe a flyer on a guy like Kivlehan or Forbes or whomever the team likes. I think that would be fair. I like the upside pitching - both Tate and Matuella have their risks, but I'm okay with that. That's part of doing this kind of thing.

[Eye Black]

Quotes from Haudricourt via Twitter this morning...

 

Using more likely/less likely scale that #Brewers would trade C Jonathan Lucroy before season, I would say less likely.

#Brewers are asking for a lot for Lucroy as they should which has scared off suitors.

Those who clamor for #Brewers to trade Lucroy to further rebuild would go nuts if they didn't get enough in return.

As I have said all winter, for every reason to trade Lucroy there is a reason not to do it. So #Brewers would have to get overwhelming offer

Would be different story if #Brewers had elite catching prospect but they don't. System very thin at that position.

[paul253]

I think the Brewers would make a mistake not moving Lucroy. Awhile ago I was on the fence but Stearns' moves so far indicate he has no illusions of competing this year. The longer you hang to Lucroy the lower his value becomes, and if he sustains another concussion you can probably forget about trading him. Obviously don't trade him just to trade him but also don't overestimate his value. The Brewers still have huge organizational holes at catcher, first base and third base and could always use more high ceiling arms. The proposals I see around here seem reasonable enough. Personally I'd like to see Tate and Ortiz come back as part of deal with Texas.

[Jenkins5]

Quotes from Haudricourt via Twitter this morning...

 

Using more likely/less likely scale that #Brewers would trade C Jonathan Lucroy before season, I would say less likely.

#Brewers are asking for a lot for Lucroy as they should which has scared off suitors.

Those who clamor for #Brewers to trade Lucroy to further rebuild would go nuts if they didn't get enough in return.

As I have said all winter, for every reason to trade Lucroy there is a reason not to do it. So #Brewers would have to get overwhelming offer

Would be different story if #Brewers had elite catching prospect but they don't. System very thin at that position.

 

It could just be be me but my feelings towards our rebuild begin to turn pretty negative (which I have been 100% with DS so far) and be less excited for our future if Lucroy is still here by opening day. We are trying to rebuild, bring in the best talent as possible, yet we haven't trade any of our most valuable pieces. It is much easier to be excited about a rebuild after you make a Gomez trade or a Lucroy trade and see the exciting talent we are building around.

 

Unless some team is beyond desperate because their catcher broke their leg, I see almost no shot of Lucroy being traded once the season starts. It just doesn't happen in baseball with front line catchers. So really we got Lucroy whose stock is in limbo. He had a down year (even if he recovered for the 2nd half) and the concussion but he is still very cheap for 2 years. If we do not trade him now, he could have another down year (marking two in a row), have more injuries (teams will see has a problem), and now he is only cheap for one season (bringing value down.) Of course he could come out and have another 2014 season and helping his value a lot in terms of production yet he is still less controllable by seasons end.

 

I want to infuse our system with the best talent possible.Trading Lucroy now is the best way to do that. I will hate to see us have to wait another year to do so.

[bill hAll Star]

Haudricourt was worried about who the CF would be last year to finish the season. I get it...I don't even live in market anymore (used to have season tickets) so I would have much less interest in what I'd have to watch on a day-to-day basis for 2016-2017 with a nuclear rebuild while he has to watch/write about them daily, but who is there to currently replace Lucroy should be the least of our concerns.

[crickets]

Looks like both Lucroy and Krush Davis will not be in attendance for the On Deck festivities....maybe signs of both not planning of being on the roster by then?

 

Not sure if either have been in attendance before though.

 

http://brewernation.mlblogs.com/2016/01/18/brewers-on-deck-attendees-announced/

[Oldcity]

Exactly. It's shortsighted for Haudricourt to cite the Brewers' thin catching depth in the minors as a reason not to trade Lucroy. They'd have 2-3 years to address that, and also it's not like free agency won't be a viable option for finding a catcher once they are ready to contend.

[pacopete4]

Looks like both Lucroy and Krush Davis will not be in attendance for the On Deck festivities....maybe signs of both not planning of being on the roster by then?

 

Not sure if either have been in attendance before though.

 

http://brewernation.mlblogs.com/2016/01/18/brewers-on-deck-attendees-announced/

 

 

Could just be a way to cover themselves in case of a trade.

[SRB]

I hate when TH just posts his personal opinion on something and it is reported (e.g. on MLBTR) as actual news.

 

TH is usually the least informed about what's going on in the front office, so that probably means a trade is imminent.

[NievesNoNO]

Quotes from Haudricourt via Twitter this morning...

 

Using more likely/less likely scale that #Brewers would trade C Jonathan Lucroy before season, I would say less likely.

#Brewers are asking for a lot for Lucroy as they should which has scared off suitors.

Those who clamor for #Brewers to trade Lucroy to further rebuild would go nuts if they didn't get enough in return.

As I have said all winter, for every reason to trade Lucroy there is a reason not to do it. So #Brewers would have to get overwhelming offer

Would be different story if #Brewers had elite catching prospect but they don't. System very thin at that position.

 

In that case, I have never been more sure that a trade is on the horizon

[Jenkins5]

My opinions on Rangers Prospects

 

**Lewis Brinson (#4) vs *Nomar Mazara (#2)

I would take Brinson over Mazara mostly because I think offensively they possess same power upside and ability to hit but overall Brinson is a far superior athlete and defensive player. Brinson has body to continue to fill out, He can stay in CF and be a good defender and has the arm to play RF. Mazara is a has a good arm, and is average defender but is only a RF/LF guy. Really, there is no need for both Santana and Mazara, both are similar. Brinson brings flexibility and high ceiling.

 

Ryan Cordell (#6)

People love to throw his name in because he may have potential to play 3B but overall he will be 24 this season, put up numbers in High Dessert which doesn't impress me at all, and struggled pretty bad in AA. I don't see him as much more than a 4th OF in the future. Overall I avoid him.

 

Luis Ortiz (#5)

I talked about in early post but has all the talent but a 20/21 who shows no care in taking care of his body or controlling his weight as a professional is not a guy I really want to gamble on.

 

*Dillion Tate (#3) Vs. **Mike Matuella (#7)

Here we got two high end #1 overall candidates. Main thing that separates the two is the concern for Matuella after Tommy John surgery and other health injury related matters. Matuella is built like Jungmann with a 6'6-6'7 220-230 frame and when healthy has made scouts believe he is a true #1 pitcher. Tate is a little more undersized at 6'2 165 but has powerful stuff. Neither has really pitched yet (Matuella 0IP Tate 7IP) but both are 21 with high ceiling. Tate is the safe pick out of the two, however for the same reason, he is more of a center piece of a deal. Matuella is a big risk but due to that, he can be added to a trade. I personally take a chance on Matuella so you can still get a higher prospect like a Brinson.

 

Luke Jackson (#8) Vs. Andrew Faulkner (#12)

Luke Jackson: Looks like Rangers have moved him to the pen for the most part but he is a power arm that could be a nice piece at the back end of the bullpen. He use to be highly regarded but his star has dropped a little bit. It is said he can work near triple digits out of pen.

 

Andrew Faulkner is a lefty who has a good 90-94 Fastball but needs to refine off-speed offerings. He could be a #3 to back end of rotation guy but has been used more out of the pen now by Texas as well. Unless we are trading a bullpen arm with Lucroy, I don't take either due to uncertainty of their ability to start. Both are MLB ready arms. Faulkner would be good add if Smith was in deal, Jackson if another arm like Jeffress was.

 

Young Arms: Yohander Mendez (#10) Brett Martin (#16) Ariel Jurado (#17)

 

**Yohander Mendez fits the DS type perfectly. Just turned 21, lefty, very projectable body, K's 1 per IP, great command of the strike zone with few walks. Issue is he still mostly throws 87-90, tops out at 92. Still plenty of time to increase though.

 

*Brett Martin is a soon to be 21 year old pitcher who should be in A+ this season. He is a lefty with good size (6'4 180) who sits 89-93 right now. His best offering is a curveball and the hope is he can add more power to curve & fastball as he continues to mature.

 

*Ariel Jurado is in his age 20 season and will play in A+. Another DS guy. Not big at 6'1 180, throws a 89-91 mph sinker that hitters struggle to square up on. He k's 1 per inning and walks very few. To me he appears to be Jorge Ortega who can actually miss bats. Projects to be a back of rotation inning eater.

 

Young Infielders: Josh Morgan (#11) Yeyson Yrizarri (#13) Travis Demeritte (#14) Michael De Leon (#19) Ti'Quan Forbes (#21), Ronald Guzman (#23)

 

**Josh Morgan is a favorite of mine, he is a versatile defender who is able to play SS/2B/3B. He is an offensive minded hitter though. He squares up on balls, hits for average, walks a ton, doesn't K much, and has some pop that should increase. Not a speedster though. Will be 2o in A+ this season. Seems like a DS guy

 

Yeyson Yrizarri will be in age 19 season and will play in A ball this year. Cannon for an arm and good range on defense. Projects to have the bat to play 3B down the road if he was to outgrow SS (only 6'0 175 though) Free swinger who will rake up K's and not walk much but does hit for decent average with some pop potential.

 

Travis Demeritte is a 2B/3B former 1st round pick with massive power potential. At age 19 he smoked 25HRs in A ball but then was suspended 80 games for PEDs. Not a big contact hitter, average has been low and k's a lot but it is said he does have potential to hit for average. Has shown ability to walk. Will be age 21 season in A+

 

*Michael De Leon will be be in age 19 season and is an extremely polished defender. He is an outstanding SS despite lack of speed and is said to be able to play everywhere on the diamond outside of catcher and CF (due to speed). As a hitter he isn't nearly as polished. Rangers are aggressive with him, having him play age 18 season in A ball. At 17 he saw time in AA, two stops in A Ball, and a stop in AFL. If his bat comes along he could be a very good utility player to have.

 

**Ti'Quan Forbes is a favorite on this site at 6'3 180 and will be 19 most of the season in A ball. All the loves comes from the high ceiling Forbes possesses. He mostly plays 3b now, he is not a great SS despite good range and strong arm. He can play 2b or CF as well. So far he has not flashed what many scouts believe he can. Many scouts believe he can develop good power, hit for average, will be able to walk, and steal a good amount of bases. Could fit well with our young raw talent in that age group.

 

**Ronald Guzman was open in the Rule 5 draft this year but no one took a shot at the freshly turned 21 year old former bonus baby. When signed he was believed to have more upside than Mazara but hasn't developed as quickly. He will be at A+ again or move up to AA this season. He is more of a Lyle Overbay as of right now where he is a more of a professional hitter than a guy who hits for power. Still young and big so power will come. Walks have dropped a little bit but has shown in past he can take walks.

 

Young OF's Eric Jenkins (#9) Leondy Taveras (#15) Jairo Beras (#23)

Eric Jenkins is a soon to be 19 year old who made it up to A ball briefly last year. It was rumored around draft time the Brewers liked him a lot. He is very athletic and is game is speed. He once was reported to run a 6.3. He has a poor arm in the OF but due to speed he can stick in CF. His bat doesn't have a ton of pop but he can drive it to the gaps or pull it down the line. He is an OBP guy who will walk. Overall speed kills. 6 triples, 27 SBs 35 runs in his debut 177 ABs

 

**Leody Taveras is a 2.1 million dollar bonus baby and little cousin of Wily Tavares. He has yet to play yet but will make his debut this season at 17. Consider one of the best all around players in this years class, he is 6'1 160 right now who is consider advanced compared to his peers. He has a solid arm that can play in CF or RF but his game right now is speed and should be able to stick in CF. It is believed he can hit 15+ HRs a season.

 

**Jairo Beras is a freshly turned 21 4.5 million dollar bonus baby who should be in A+ this season. He is 6'5 180 raw, high ceiling OF prospect. He has plenty of power projections and good speed for his size. Really loaded with tools but needs to put them all together. Had a very good season at 20 in A ball

 

**means my top targets

*other targets

[MNBrew]

For those of you totally convinced a Lucroy trade needs to happen, which statement more accurately reflects your perspective?

 

A) Trade Lucroy NOW no matter what, even if the best return they can get is not really what you think he should be worth.

 

B) Trade Lucroy only if/when it nets a return of talent commensurate with his value.

 

I ask because many folks' posts seem to advocate the first part of A and don't seem to consider the possibility of the 2nd half of A as a hindrance to a deal. But what if that combination (the entirety of A) is the only scenario presenting itself?

 

Some of you love to rag on TH regardless of what he says. Sometimes what a reporter puts forth -- which some of you are taking to be his opinion -- is a translation of comments he can't report or quote directly but which are what his/her sources point to as the likely scenario.

 

Personally I don't want to see Lucroy traded in spite of the rebuild situation, but I'm very aware it's a possibility. . . . . I'm also not sold on the likelihood that the total tear-down approach is the Brewers' absolute best option given that at least 3 other teams seem to be in the exact same position (Reds, Braves, Phillies) and the more teams there are taking that approach, the less likely any one individual team will achieve the desired outcome. . . . Personally I'm also skeptical of the long-term sustainability of the Cubs/Astros approach. The Cubs now have basically abandoned that since they're now spending huge money left and right, and the Astros only barely made the playoffs, made several prospects-for-vets deals at the deadlines, and there's no guarantee they're headed toward a better 2016 than their 2015.

 

I like what the Brewers have done thus far -- I think it's what they've needed to do -- but I'd still rather that Stearns' vision is uniquely his own, not a total copycat like many here essentially advocate, and the Brewers' approach over the next few years becomes the model that many other teams hope to follow.