Lucroy Trades/Proposals

[JohnBriggs12]

First, Joey Gallo is not a third baseman. Not a good one anyway. He'll almost surely be a corner outfielder because teams will want to use his arm at a position other than first base. Second, Joey Gallo will not be able to hit major league pitching with any consistency. The problem isn't all his approach as he's shown the ability to work counts and take walks. The problem is he has an incredibly difficult time making contact with pitches in the zone when he swings at them. I hate to hate on the guy but I just see him as the most overvalued "top" prospect in the game and I'm really hoping the Brewers stay away.

 

And, trading for a position of need right now is exactly the type of thing I hope we shy away from. A lot of good third basemen are former shortstops who either outgrow the position or hit enough to move over for another shortstop in the system.

 

He doesn't really "work counts" per se. When you can't put balls in play you force the pitcher to throw you more you more pitches. He gets to 2 strikes easily and then pitchers will try and get him to chase which obviously he does a fair bit but what separates major league pitchers from minor league pitchers is that in the big leagues the pitches often look good out of the hand and end up off the corner or in the dirt, and they are harder to lay off of.

[CheezWizHed]

Gallo's minor league numbers are: 258/369/602/971

 

You don't have an OBP that is 111 higher than your AVE without working counts. Even with the Rangers he hit: 204/301/417/717. So .097 higher at he MLB level too. And don't forget he was 21 at the time...

 

The key would be if he can stick at 3B defensively. 1B might be a decent backup option, but if the most probable location for him is OF, I'd certainly rather have Brinson as there would be less risk and better defense. Not to mention, that we already have Santana in the OF that profiles similarly to Gallo.

[3and2Fastball]

Lucroy was Rated as the #3 Catcher in MLB on MLB Network's "Top 10 Right Now" show last night. In my opinion that might be a little high considering the down year and injury concerns, but it still shows that he is a highly valued player. (Bill James ranked him 6th)

[adambr2]

So is post-2009 Hardy a comparable return to what we should expect from Lucroy? Post 2009 Hardy had 2 years remaining of inexpensive control, and was coming off a down year in 2009. Granted catcher is a premium position, but shortstop isn't far behind if at all.

[PlayerHader]

Hardy was BAD his last season. Like, back to AAA bad.

[Kelbysdaddy]

So is post-2009 Hardy a comparable return to what we should expect from Lucroy? Post 2009 Hardy had 2 years remaining of inexpensive control, and was coming off a down year in 2009. Granted catcher is a premium position, but shortstop isn't far behind if at all.

No. Very, very different circumstances.

Unless you mean that as we should be getting at least a future all star in return. Carlos was at his lowest value when we picked him up for Hardy. Both guys had very little trade value but filled a need for each team involved. Nice that both guys turned it around though.

[adambr2]

Hardy was BAD his last season. Like, back to AAA bad.

 

He wasn't really THAT bad IMO. A .659 OPS isn't good, but for a SS who was still very good with the glove that year, it wasn't an albatross of a down year. He was worth about 1 WAR.

 

I think his demotion had a lot to do with gaining that extra year of club control, no matter how much Melvin may have denied it.

[trwi7]

Hardy was BAD his last season. Like, back to AAA bad.

 

He was "AAA bad" because we sent him down for a little while to gain an extra year of control. With Escobar coming up and Hardy having a bad year, we sent him down to raise his trade value by giving the acquiring team an extra year to control him if they wanted.

[PlayerHader]

Oh, I remember the circumstances. He was baaaaddd leading up to being sent down. It was a bit sleezy, but that doesn't minimize how poorly his season went.

[Warning Track Power]

With the acquisition of Nottingham, I think it really opens the door to take the best prospect package available regardless of position in a Lucroy deal. Brinson for CF, Trea Turner for 2B...really think it's about the accumulation of prospects now more than ever.

[RockCoCougars]

I don't have any interest in Gallo. Though I've argued that he's overhyped in the past, I'd be asking for Profar, with the intention of sliding him over to second base.

[brewerfan82]

I understand that Gallo has his warts, strikes out at a rate that many presume means he won't be productive at the major league level, and there are other players in the Rangers' system you'd prefer. But being disappointed in him being part of a return or having "no" interest in him at all is still very baffling to me. I guess there must be other assumptions going on, rather that's that he'd be the only player we'd get, while other players would net us additional players as well, or people are just being over dramatic with their wording? No matter what your personal opinion is, the national opinion is the guy would instantly be one of our top 3 prospects and at a position that we don't have much/any depth (even if he ends up at 1st). I'm okay with adding a guy like that to the system.

 

Even if his downside is a Mark Reynolds type, do you remember what Mark Reynolds was like when he came to the big leagues?? His first 4 full seasons brought homerun totals of 28, 44, 32, and 37, while always OBP'ing at least .320. Not saying I wouldn't hope for something a little more than that, but that's a pretty nifty floor.

 

All that said, maybe I'm keeping myself pessimistic so I'm not disappointed, but I don't expect the Rangers to give up Gallo in a package anyways, and I'd be ecstatic if the other players mentioned in this thread actually do come back in a trade. I just don't get the extreme disinterest in Gallo from some posters.

[StearnsFTW]

He has a 40% strikeout rate. I don't know if that's ever been seen before.

 

I think there are much more attractive packages available from Texas.

[JohnBriggs12]

There are currently 2 likely 200 strikeout hitters projected to be in everyday lineup in Carter and Santana. Gallo is a 250 strikeout guy. Maldonado as a starter would approach 150. If Broxton becomes the CF, that's another 175 or so. That would be a disaster.

[pacopete4]

There are currently 2 likely 200 strikeout hitters projected to be in everyday lineup in Carter and Santana. Gallo is a 250 strikeout guy. Maldonado as a starter would approach 150. If Broxton becomes the CF, that's another 175 or so. That would be a disaster.

 

 

You really have to get over strikeouts. Cubs lead the league last season in K's followed by the Astros. They didn't have too much trouble winning games. Pitching, pitching, pitching is how it's done.

[brewerfan82]

Haha, that would be awesome. In all seriousness, are there any studies that show there are compounding effects of having "too many" strikeout guys? I'm not trying to be facetious, I would love to hear some research on the matter, as I do find it interesting.

 

On an individual basis, I really don't care if a guy strikes out a lot, it never irritated me the way it does others. As long as they are productive and over the long run create runs at a higher than average rate, I'm fine with it. Give me the guy that creates the most runs on the season. I understand that comes with inconsistency and with all else equal it would be nicer to score 5 runs every game rather than 1 today, 9 tomorrow, but in a year that winning's not a huge concern anyways, I'll take the guys with the most upside and potential value. I'll worry more about the balance of the team when we're contending again.

 

Again, I'm not predicting Gallo will be the best possible player we could get, as many have pointed out there is a big bust potential, but I think his boom potential is also greater than any other player discussed and I would gladly take him. Additionally, if we can add Smith to a package and get 2-3 additional good-to-great prospects it lowers the risk factor a bit. But maybe that's part of the divide in this discussion, I don't think Stearns would trade for just one guy with Lucroy (which is partly why I'm pessimistic we could even land Gallo if we wanted to), while others may be assuming if Gallo comes over, he's all we're getting. But if Stearns really wants Gallo as part of the package, I think he'll expand our end to include a Smith/Peralta type to get more than just Gallo.

[adambr2]

There are currently 2 likely 200 strikeout hitters projected to be in everyday lineup in Carter and Santana. Gallo is a 250 strikeout guy. Maldonado as a starter would approach 150. If Broxton becomes the CF, that's another 175 or so. That would be a disaster.

 

First of all I think your projections are really on the extreme side. Carter is the only guy to ever even hit your 'likely' mark, and he did it one season 3 years ago.

 

Santana has never even hit 150 in his full seasons, and you're projecting him for 200. Projecting Gallo to shatter the current MLB record by 27 strikeouts is really over the top.

 

Secondly, without diving too much into the 'strikeouts vs outs in play' argument, I don't understand the worry over having an abundance of strikeout hitters in our lineup, especially in a rebuilding year. There's very little correlation between W/L and strikeouts. The Cubs led the MLB in K's by a mile last year. Next was the Astros. Both were playoff teams.

 

Guys like Chris Davis, Mike Trout, and Paul Goldschmidt were near the top of the MLB strikeout list last year. If you're OPS'ing near .900 and hitting 40 HRs, I can live with 200 Ks. I'm not saying we have players of that caliber, but a contact hitter certainly isn't a prerequisite for a valuable player.

[reillymcshane]

There are currently 2 likely 200 strikeout hitters projected to be in everyday lineup in Carter and Santana. Gallo is a 250 strikeout guy. Maldonado as a starter would approach 150. If Broxton becomes the CF, that's another 175 or so. That would be a disaster.

Cubs and Astros lead the league in strikeouts last season. I'm not saying they are 'good' to have, but they don't necessarily have to mean a team is unsuccessful.

[paul253]

At this point I think the Brewers best option is to take the best offer they can get for Lucroy before the season starts. I say this because I think the trades of Davis and Segura have taken away any hope at all of even being a somewhat decent team. I don't think Lucroys value can get any higher but I do think it can get a heck of a lot lower. Another slow start or injury and the return will shrink. And God forgive he gets another concussion because if that happens the return will be next to nothing. One of my biggest criticisms of Doug Melvin was that he missed the window of opportunity to maximize a players return too often. Lucroy is the last player we have who we can expect a significant return for. I'd hate to see us miss that chance. I know Stearns is looking for a home run on the return for Lucroy. Right now is settle for a triple, or maybe even a double with the runner thinking about third, than to risk a single or strikeout by holding onto him too long. He's not going to be motivated this year because he's not in a contract year and he knows the Brewers aren't going to win. So really the only thing he'd be playing for is to increase his trade value and quite honestly would he even care what his trade value is?

[KCBrewerfan34]

Word is interested teams want to see Lucroy in Spring Training to make sure the concussion isn't an issue (see Koskie Morneau etc...).

[brewcrewdue80]

Some MLBTR also had Stearns saying he was done making moves until ST. Chris Carter is a 1year deal 1b. Who cares what he does? Just please be healthy enough to play 140+games. It's a rebuild year.Get Carter, and 200ks or Morneau and .275BA with under 24HRs ? Are we to build a 74win team or a 69win team. Does that matter ? When was the last time 74wins won the World series ? Never? What!?! I'm shocked! Forget your expectations of a properly built team by your standards. Talent has been acquired and people are birching about them. Forget your opinion with F emphasized. And let the damn talent get a chance. Are we really holding back minor leaguers from deserving jobs?

[TooLiveBrew]

Some MLBTR also had Stearns saying he was done making moves until ST. Chris Carter is a 1year deal 1b. Who cares what he does? Just please be healthy enough to play 140+games. It's a rebuild year.Get Carter, and 200ks or Morneau and .275BA with under 24HRs ? Are we to build a 74win team or a 69win team. Does that matter ? When was the last time 74wins won the World series ? Never? What!?! I'm shocked! Forget your expectations of a properly built team by your standards. Talent has been acquired and people are birching about them. Forget your opinion with F emphasized. And let the damn talent get a chance. Are we really holding back minor leaguers from deserving jobs?

Knock it off.

[yfinn6]

Some MLBTR also had Stearns saying he was done making moves until ST. Chris Carter is a 1year deal 1b. Who cares what he does? Just please be healthy enough to play 140+games. It's a rebuild year.Get Carter, and 200ks or Morneau and .275BA with under 24HRs ? Are we to build a 74win team or a 69win team. Does that matter ? When was the last time 74wins won the World series ? Never? What!?! I'm shocked! Forget your expectations of a properly built team by your standards. Talent has been acquired and people are birching about them. Forget your opinion with F emphasized. And let the damn talent get a chance. Are we really holding back minor leaguers from deserving jobs?

 

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[Boomer5]

Are the Brewers targeting close to MLB ready talent for Luc? Are they eager to start the clock on a Turner? Keep the clock going on a Gallo who while I like him, does not seem like a headline guy for our lone remaining big chip?

 

Based on what I have seen, I would think they are looking for guys drafted in 15 to headline a Luc deal. We have already seen Swanson traded, so its not unheard of. If they target HS level 14/15 guys, I would think they can pick up a bigger package of assets.

[BrewBalls]

Here the the offers I would like to receive from possible trade partners.

 

Rangers: Brinson, Tate and lower level prospect

 

Twins: Stewart, Kepler and Wheeler

 

Rays: Snell, Gillaspie and Romero

 

Nationals: Giolito (straight up) or Turner, Cole and Franco

 

White Sox: Fulmer, Danish and Alfaro

 

D-Backs: Shipley, Drury and Mejia

 

My top two packages trade partners would be Texas and Minnesota. Although I would be okay with any of these packages for Lucroy.