2016 Opening Day Pitchers

[Crash2303]

For Pitching, I think Zach Jones makes the team at the expense of David Goforth/Junior Guerra/Jaye Chapman.

 

STARTERS

Jimmy Nelson

Wily Peralta

Matt Garza

Taylor Jungmann

Zach Davies

 

RELIEVERS

Jeremy Jeffress

Michael Blazek*

Will Smith+*

Corey Knebel

Tyler Thornburg*

Ariel Pena*

Zach Jones

 

 

And in general- I believe that Garza, Lucroy, and one of Segura/Gennett will be traded by the trade deadline this year.

 

* EDIT- Segura in fact traded- so, i'd slide Chase Anderson in for Zach Davies...that is until Garza is gone...

[MVP2110]

I'll go

Starters

Nelson

Garza

Peralta

Jungmann

Davies

 

RP

Smith(closer)

Jeffress

Knebel

Thornburg

Blazek

Jones

Hagadone

 

Although I'd like to fit Pena and Guerra in there as well somewhere

[BillHallofFamer]

Out of the whole staring roster I think pitching is starting to become more clear, but we'll see.

 

Starters:

Nelson

Peralta

Garza

Davies

Jungmann

 

Releivers:

Jeffress

Smith

Blazek

Knebel

Thornburg

Pena

Jones

 

I think there could be some interesting things happening with our relievers this year. Very interested to see if the players on the bubble make the cut.

 

87 days until opening day!

[3and2Fastball]

Pitching is my biggest concern in regards to the Brewers franchise. A few of these guys could be/would be slated to be big parts of the rotation if the Brewers can complete their rebuild by the 2018/2019 seasons. I'll be watching Jungmann, Nelson, Davies closely and really hoping for them to take a major step forward.

 

Peralta will be a free agent in 2019, so he's towards the back end of that window. With him I think it is a matter of him building trade value.

[brewtank34]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

[JohnBriggs12]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

 

I saw Davies handcuff a hot hitting Cub team in September. He used primarily his 89 mph fastball down in the zone which he's fearless with. A good off speed pitch is the best pitch in baseball because it keeps hitters off balance. Couple that with command of the fastball and you've got something.

[ZBTMP]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

They project about the same but Lopez seems farther away from a finished project. No sense in using service time to polish his control on a rebuilding squad when he has never been to AAA, and giving away Lopez's potential 2022 season when it is even money to make us better next season.

 

Now Guerra, I'd love to see him get a shot.

[1992casey]

I basically concur with ZBTMP, although I think López may have a higher ceiling. I view Davies as closer to Major League ready, though, and that's what should count in the short term.

 

Zach's an interesting player as he's consistently exceeded expectations. Concerns about things that might cause trouble don't seem to have happened.

[sheetskout]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

I'm guessing if they have to hold one back at triple-A they'd probably default to Lopez as his ceiling may be higher and they have a longer investment history with him.

 

One other note, I would also bet that Smith doesn't close to start the season if he's with the team. It makes more long-term sense to me to test Jeffress at a full-time closer role now as Smith looks like prime trade bait. Even if Smith starts the season with the team he's the one that fits a need on 90% of the other clubs come deadline time.

[MVP2110]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

I'm guessing if they have to hold one back at triple-A they'd probably default to Lopez as his ceiling may be higher and they have a longer investment history with him.

 

One other note, I would also bet that Smith doesn't close to start the season if he's with the team. It makes more long-term sense to me to test Jeffress at a full-time closer role now as Smith looks like prime trade bait. Even if Smith starts the season with the team he's the one that fits a need on 90% of the other clubs come deadline time.

 

I think that's the exact reason Smith starts in the closer role. More likely to deal him so let him build up his value then move jeffress there after the deadline

[MrTPlush]

I wouldn't be surprised if there is no concrete closer...actually I would put my money there won't be one. With one RHP and one LHP why not deploy which is more favorable? Lots of lefties send Smith and if a lot of dangerous righties send out Jeffress. I have a hard time

 

Both get their closer experience to market to interested team and the lower save totals will knock down their yearly salary.

 

Though if I had to pick one Will Smith probably gets the nod.

[sheetskout]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

I'm guessing if they have to hold one back at triple-A they'd probably default to Lopez as his ceiling may be higher and they have a longer investment history with him.

 

One other note, I would also bet that Smith doesn't close to start the season if he's with the team. It makes more long-term sense to me to test Jeffress at a full-time closer role now as Smith looks like prime trade bait. Even if Smith starts the season with the team he's the one that fits a need on 90% of the other clubs come deadline time.

 

I think that's the exact reason Smith starts in the closer role. More likely to deal him so let him build up his value then move jeffress there after the deadline

Other teams are well aware of Smith's value. Adding some saves isn't likely to add anything of relevance to Smith as a team would most likely would not be acquiring him to close but as a strategic LHP.

 

I just see it as more likely that the RHP in Jeffress would close as managers generally appreciate the option of a reliable LH reliever at hand before the ninth.

[TooLiveBrew]

Who is better? Davies or Lopez? From what I saw of Lopez last season, I enjoyed. Davies relies heavily on his off-speed pitches which could get him into trouble...especially at Miller Park. Thoughts on Lopez making the rotation?

'Who is better?' is a tough/loaded question. Who is more talented? For me it's clearly López. Who should be expected to be better in 2016? I'd lean López, but wouldn't be surprised if it's Davies.

 

Davies is really an extreme case imo -- from the standard 'behind the pitcher' MLB camera angle, he legitimately looks like he's about 16 years old on the mound... but his results have been good. Makes what Mike Fiers has accomplished almost seem unsurprising. The first start of Davies' that I saw, it took me a full inning to stop thinking it must've been some teenager living out Rookie of the Year. On the other hand, you have López who has the ideal pitcher's build, stuff, etc. I guess I would be surprised if Davies is better than López next season, but not shocked. I think the Crew will keep Jorge in AAA to preserve a year of big-league service time, but ultimately he's up to The Show to stay come May/June.

 

I know the team won't be very competitive overall, but for me this season will be very compelling to watch. Almost every start there'll be a SP going that is reason enough to tune in imo. Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Davies, López... hell, Garza might well slot in as the #5 SP all season. Not that that's a feelgood thing given his price tag, but it's an endorsement of the young pitching developed by the club, which is worth celebrating in & of itself given our franchise history in that category.

[CheezWizHed]

Peralta, Nelson, Jungmann, Davies, López... hell, Garza might well slot in as the #5 SP all season.

 

I'd be giving Garza a long leash this year to see if anything is salvageable after last year. There is no reason to have Lopez, Arcia nor Maverick up before the All-Start break. And very little reason before Sept.

[CheezWizHed]

BrewCrewball has a good article on the SP plans.

 

Davies is neck-and-neck with Nelson for the lowest Steamer projections, though none of those are pretty:

 

1. Jimmy Nelson (27) - 4.28 ERA, 188 IP, 20.2 K%, 8.1 BB%, 2.4 fWAR

2. Matt Garza (32) - 4.49 ERA, 163 IP, 17.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1.4 fWAR

3. Wily Peralta (27) - 4.50 ERA, 173 IP, 16.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 1.6 fWAR

4. Taylor Jungmann (26) - 4.68 ERA, 138 IP, 19.3 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.1 fWAR

5. Zach Davies (23) - 4.30 ERA, 120 IP, 18.1 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.3 fWAR

 

Edit: Added Lopez's steamer projections for comparison's sake:

Jorge Lopez (23 - Feb 10) - 4.47 ERA, 64.0 IP, 19.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, 0.6 fWAR

[pacopete4]

BrewCrewball has a good article on the SP plans.

 

Davies is neck-and-neck with Nelson for the lowest Steamer projections, though none of those are pretty:

 

1. Jimmy Nelson (27) - 4.28 ERA, 188 IP, 20.2 K%, 8.1 BB%, 2.4 fWAR

2. Matt Garza (32) - 4.49 ERA, 163 IP, 17.6 K%, 7.4 BB%, 1.4 fWAR

3. Wily Peralta (27) - 4.50 ERA, 173 IP, 16.2 K%, 7.5 BB%, 1.6 fWAR

4. Taylor Jungmann (26) - 4.68 ERA, 138 IP, 19.3 K%, 9.8 BB%, 1.1 fWAR

5. Zach Davies (23) - 4.30 ERA, 120 IP, 18.1 K%, 8.5 BB%, 1.3 fWAR

 

Edit: Added Lopez's steamer projections for comparison's sake:

Jorge Lopez (23 - Feb 10) - 4.47 ERA, 64.0 IP, 19.1 K%, 9.3 BB%, 0.6 fWAR

 

 

I'd bet my lunch money that we'll have a starter somewhere in the 3's for ERA this year. Those numbers are just too high for me.

[CheezWizHed]

I'd even bet that each player beats those projections too.