Twins interested in Will Smith

[wildcat2237]

Here is an article from back in November stating that Lucroy and Smith could fill needs for the twins.

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2015/11/5/9674100/twins-notes-robinson-lucroy-park-free-agency-rankings-mccutchen

 

I think some people here are undervaluing Smith. He's one of the best left handed back-end relievers in the game. He is not going to bring back the Kimbrel return. However, I dont think a Smith for Kepler trade is ridiculous.

 

That said, a Lucroy and Smith trade could be VERY interesting.

[MrTPlush]

Kepler is well with in reason. Actually I would expect more than just Kepler. I have seen some experts peg Will Smith's value as a Berrios return. Now while I don't think that would ever happen I don't think the value is far off. Smith is an elite lefty reliever that can get both sides out. He should easily net a Top 100 prospect.

[Luke99]

I would love to see something along the lines of

 

Smith and Cravy for Kepler, Gonsalves, Jermaine Palacios, and Lewin Diaz.

 

I like a lot of what I read about Diaz. Definition of boom or bust. I like LH 1B though.

[ZBTMP]

Kepler is well with in reason. Actually I would expect more than just Kepler.

 

We will see, but I agree with this. Fangraphs has Smith projected to be the 8th most valuable reliever in baseball and has 4 more seasons of team control. He is instantly the best reliever in the Twins pen. With the premium being placed on high leverage relievers, I will be disappointed if we don't land at least (1) ~top 50 prospect.

[Boomer5]

Kepler is well with in reason. Actually I would expect more than just Kepler.

 

We will see, but I agree with this. Fangraphs has Smith projected to be the 8th most valuable reliever in baseball and has 4 more seasons of team control. He is instantly the best reliever in the Twins pen. With the premium being placed on high leverage relievers, I will be disappointed if we don't land at least (1) ~top 50 prospect.

 

Agreed. He is an elite commodity. I wouldnt trade him until the return became overwhelming. He is not Kimbrel but 3/4th of that is the kind of ball park package Id want back.

[And That]

Fangraphs has Smith projected to be the 8th most valuable reliever in baseball and has 4 more seasons of team control. He is instantly the best reliever in the Twins pen. With the premium being placed on high leverage relievers, I will be disappointed if we don't land at least (1) ~top 50 prospect.

Projections are one thing, but Smith was the 21st best reliever last year (by fWAR), 25th best from 2014-2015. That puts him in the same territory as Pat Neshek, Pedro Strop, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Justin Wilson, etc. Yes he has more team control than most of those guys, but I'm just not sure he has the value to land a top 50 prospect.

 

If Brett Cecil had team control similar to Smith, would you give up Maverick Phillips for him? Trent Clark? Jorge Lopez?

 

And if the Brewers can get Kepler, great. I'm not setting my hopes that high, though.

[ZBTMP]

Fangraphs has Smith projected to be the 8th most valuable reliever in baseball and has 4 more seasons of team control. He is instantly the best reliever in the Twins pen. With the premium being placed on high leverage relievers, I will be disappointed if we don't land at least (1) ~top 50 prospect.

Projections are one thing, but Smith was the 21st best reliever last year (by fWAR), 25th best from 2014-2015. That puts him in the same territory as Pat Neshek, Pedro Strop, Brett Cecil, Luke Gregerson, Justin Wilson, etc. Yes he has more team control than most of those guys, but I'm just not sure he has the value to land a top 50 prospect.

 

If Brett Cecil had team control similar to Smith, would you give up Maverick Phillips for him? Trent Clark? Jorge Lopez?

 

Are we talking a 3 year younger, harder throwing Brett Cecil with more strikeouts? Depending on where Im at in the competitive cycle, the depth of my farm system, and my overall team need I guess.

[And That]

Cecil's velocity is the same as it was two years ago, and higher now than it was 3 years ago. He also has better breaking stuff than Smith. Cecil is also under 30, so he's not some ancient guy.

 

So let me re-frame the question. If the Twins had Maverick Phillips in their system, are they giving up Phillips today for Cecil, assuming Cecil was under control for four more years?

[Boomer5]

Cecil's velocity is the same as it was two years ago, and higher now than it was 3 years ago. He also has better breaking stuff than Smith. Cecil is also under 30, so he's not some ancient guy.

 

So let me re-frame the question. If the Twins had Maverick Phillips in their system, are they giving up Phillips today for Cecil, assuming Cecil was under control for four more years?

 

Would his wife be part of the deal? Google her.

[TURBO]

Cecil's velocity is the same as it was two years ago, and higher now than it was 3 years ago. He also has better breaking stuff than Smith. Cecil is also under 30, so he's not some ancient guy.

 

So let me re-frame the question. If the Twins had Maverick Phillips in their system, are they giving up Phillips today for Cecil, assuming Cecil was under control for four more years?

 

Would his wife be part of the deal? Google her.

 

yowsa!

[ZBTMP]

Cecil's velocity is the same as it was two years ago, and higher now than it was 3 years ago. He also has better breaking stuff than Smith. Cecil is also under 30, so he's not some ancient guy.

 

So let me re-frame the question. If the Twins had Maverick Phillips in their system, are they giving up Phillips today for Cecil, assuming Cecil was under control for four more years?

 

I'll settle for we don't know. I'd tend to think GMs would be valuing projected growth in age 26-30 seasons that Smith still has that Cecil does not. When I did trade values I put Smith #5 right behind Lopez (going off the fact that BA had rated Lopez ahead of Barrios and Stephenson in their Southern League List), but I'd think they have similar value knowing that Smith can make 29 other teams better tomorrow.

[Austin Tatious]

[/The Twins continue to poke around the trade market for left-handed relief help and like Brewers left-hander Will Smith quite a bit, reports 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson in his latest podcast (audio link, with Twins talk firing up around the 37:45 mark). There’s certainly no indication that Milwaukee is looking to move Smith, although as this winter’s Ken Giles trade showed, moving a controllable relief arm can certainly bolster a farm system in a hurry. The Twins have no shortage of minor league talent that could entice the Brewers, though GM Terry Ryan recently spoke about a number of in-house options that intrigue him as lefty options in the bullpen, calling out Taylor Rogers and J.T. Chargois by name.

 

More smoke on the Twins interest in Will Smith, although it's hard to tell if this is new sourced info or if Wolfson is just recycling earlier scuttlebutt. The reference to Ken Giles is telling. The Phillies got a great haul there, including Mark Appel, the former number one overall pick and number two prospect in their system AND other pieces.

 

Will Smith is lefty, not a loogy, has good stuff, is young, and under team control. He's in demand.

 

Getting Kepler plus seems to be on the table. Kepler seems to be a source of surplus for the Twins. They have other options. The world won't end if they trade Kepler but Smith satisfies a real need. Then the Brewers would need another prospect or two coming back.

[Boomer5]

After seeing the Phillies and Padres got for their closers, Im thinking a deal 1/2 to 3/4 of that is possible.

 

A Smith and Luc package might just wipe a desperate teams farm system and put the Brewers into the top 1 or 2 systems in the game.

[Warning Track Power]

Is Smith for Kepler straight up fair value?

[Kelbysdaddy]

Is Smith for Kepler straight up fair value?

probably not. kepler has a lot a hype after last season. a german born brewer would be a huge promotional tool though.

[reillymcshane]

Is Smith for Kepler straight up fair value?

Very, very unlikely.

 

Kepler is showing up in the Top 50 of prospect lists - even as high as #30 with BA. You're going to need more than Smith to get a guy like Kepler.

 

Something like Kepler/Jay for Luc/Smith might work.

[And That]

Despite some rabid opposition to this opinion further on up the thread, I agree with reilly - I doubt Smith is enough to get Kepler. Maybe not too far off, but not enough.

 

For comparison's sake, this is what the Yankees got for Justin Wilson, whose contract and performance doesn't differ wildly from Smith's. Kepler they ain't.

[Boomer5]

Smith was traded for a starting MLB OF'er/leadoff man. Seems like his value hasn't dropped since then???

[And That]

Smith was traded for a starting MLB OF'er/leadoff man. Seems like his value hasn't dropped since then???

I don't understand... are you trying to say that one year of Aoki is worth Kepler?

[JohnBriggs12]

Despite some rabid opposition to this opinion further on up the thread, I agree with reilly - I doubt Smith is enough to get Kepler. Maybe not too far off, but not enough.

 

For comparison's sake, this is what the Yankees got for Justin Wilson, whose contract and performance doesn't differ wildly from Smith's. Kepler they ain't.

 

So you add a prospect to sweeten the deal enough to get Kepler. Isn't that how trades are equalized? Don't the Brewers now have one of the deepest systems in all of baseball?

[Mudville9]

Is Smith for Kepler straight up fair value?

probably not. kepler has a lot a hype after last season. a german born brewer would be a huge promotional tool though.

 

If we trade for Kepler and draft Riley Pint, that might make a Top 10 moment in Brewer history for me. Fingers crossed.

[pacopete4]

Is Smith for Kepler straight up fair value?

probably not. kepler has a lot a hype after last season. a german born brewer would be a huge promotional tool though.

 

If we trade for Kepler and draft Riley Pint, that might make a Top 10 moment in Brewer history for me. Fingers crossed.

 

 

Most likely that kid is pitching for LSU next season. Heart seems set on it.

[MrTPlush]

Most likely that kid is pitching for LSU next season. Heart seems set on it.

 

He will likely be drafted top 3 and offered over $5mil...the kid is going to get drafted and signed.