2016 Opening Day Lineup (and 2016 Batting Order Discussion)

[monty57]

How can Perez not fill in at SS when he's played more career games at SS than any other position including full AAA season in 2014? If Rivera isn't going to start and get a ton of ABs then he needs to be in AAA playing every day. Perez and Walsh cover every IF spot. Because Hill sucks so much and Scooter is historically bad vs lefties having Rivera on the team means he'll still get a lot of PT floating between 3 IF spots. He needs 400ABs otherwise put him in AAA.

 

Thank you. If Perez is capable of backing up SS, and if Villar is going to be the starter, then I would start the season with Rivera playing full time in AAA. Platoon Gennett at 2B, and have Walsh and Perez get a decent number of starts across the infield. Rivera's the highest upside of the group, and I'm fine with them naming him the starting MLB SS, in which case Perez will probably be cut, but I think Villar will start the season there. I'm also higher on Walsh than Perez, so if they are the backup IF, I hope Walsh gets most of the 2B/3B starts when Gennett and Hill are off.

 

Why is Hill the consensus started at 3B? The guy has been brutal so far.

 

Hill will start the season there, probably because of veteran status, some hope of flipping him in July, and no other real standout option. Perez simply does not take walks, and that isn't widely accepted in baseball these days. Meanwhile, Walsh is a Rule 5 guy. I like Walsh, but he's not going to be handed a starting job out of the gate based on Spring Training numbers over a veteran like Hill. I really hope Cecchini re-establishes himself, tears up AAA, and becomes our starting 3B for the next 5-6 years. Whatever the end scenario, Hill is nothing more than a stopgap, and hopefully he plays well enough that we can flip him in July.

 

And it's impossible to have Broxton, Flores, Reed on team getting them all plenty of ABs.

 

At this point, I think Broxton will be the starting CF, Flores will be the main backup at the corners and at 1B, and the 5th OF will be someone who can backup CF, likely one of Kirk N., Young or Presley. Reed should see full-time action in AAA.

[Jenkins5]

I think Gennett is doing everything possible to make sure he is out there every day. Guy has always hit. Never really given a shot verse lefties outside a game here and there. Still only 25 (same age about as Walsh, Perez, Villar, and all the other young guys on this roster outside of Rivera). Feel a lot of people have written him off because of the terrible start last year and bad track record in limited ABs verse lefties. I hate how little he walks and hopefully that can begin to improve but for this season, there is nothing to lose. Throw him out there everyday and really find out what you have in him. He has filled out even more this year and he is starting to flash more power that we kind of hoped he'd develop.

 

With Liriano out, I would go with

 

IF: Rivera & Walsh

OF: Broxton & Pressley

 

Pressley seems to be a good vet bench guy. Good OF in all 3 spots, better bat than Kirk.

 

Walsh over Perez since Walsh will walk more times in a week than Perez will in a season. Their hit tools are similar. Perez has flashed a little more over last year and this spring. Big thing is I want a guy off the bench who will give you good abs and take walks late in games to get us back to the top of the order. Guys like Flores and Walsh will give you that off the bench, guys like Perez will not. If Perez was a starter then I could deal with it a little more but I want good at bats from my bench players.

[pacopete4]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't. Let him swat around RHP and that's that. The bench guys can take care of lefties for him AND probably give us better defense. It's not like Scooter is that great defensively. People always want him to be more than what he is and they will continue to be greatly disappointed.

[bill hAll Star]

Just your yearly reminder that Scooter has a career .297 OPS against LHP. .124/.147/.150 slash line.

 

It can only go up from there and I know there's the "he's never gotten a fair shake" but I'd rather just let his numbers stay inflated for trade purposes.

[FVBrewerFan]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't.

 

If the goal was winning the WS this year, I would agree. But it's not, so I don't see the downside in letting Scooter have plenty of ABs vs LHP. Downside is zero, upside is his value goes up significantly if he can prove he can play full time at 2B.

[pacopete4]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't.

 

If the goal was winning the WS this year, I would agree. But it's not, so I don't see the downside in letting Scooter have plenty of ABs vs LHP. Downside is zero, upside is his value goes up significantly if he can prove he can play full time at 2B.

 

 

Putting players in the best scenarios to succeed has nothing to do with going for a WS. He's had many of chances to hit lefties and doesn't. It's okay. He's on the good end of the platoon. His value will be just fine if a team is in the market for a 2B with okay defense.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't.

 

If the goal was winning the WS this year, I would agree. But it's not, so I don't see the downside in letting Scooter have plenty of ABs vs LHP. Downside is zero, upside is his value goes up significantly if he can prove he can play full time at 2B.

 

 

Scoot is 14 for 113 vs LHP with 2 XBH, 1 walk, and 34 strikeouts vs. LHP. 113 AB's is not a HUGE sample size, but at the same time, this is like putting another bad hitting pitcher in your lineup.

[pacopete4]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't.

 

If the goal was winning the WS this year, I would agree. But it's not, so I don't see the downside in letting Scooter have plenty of ABs vs LHP. Downside is zero, upside is his value goes up significantly if he can prove he can play full time at 2B.

 

 

Scoot is 14 for 113 vs LHP with 2 XBH, 1 walk, and 34 strikeouts vs. LHP. 113 AB's is not a HUGE sample size, but at the same time, this is like putting another bad hitting pitcher in your lineup.

 

 

He's been horrible in his minor league career as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

He is young, most LH hitters really struggle against LHP in the minors and early in their MLB career. Especially when those ABs are really spread out. I'm not pretending his splits will ever be equal, but if he can even be serviceable vs LHP, it absolutely would increase his value. If he wasn't such a natural hitter, I would say it's a lost cause. But I do think there's a chance in his case. If we want to use small samples, he hit LHP very well in Spring.

 

Plus, it's not like he has to start against every LHP. Give him some chances here and there early on and see what happens.

[superfly]

Gennett will not face many lefties this season and shouldn't.

 

If the goal was winning the WS this year, I would agree. But it's not, so I don't see the downside in letting Scooter have plenty of ABs vs LHP. Downside is zero, upside is his value goes up significantly if he can prove he can play full time at 2B.

 

 

Putting players in the best scenarios to succeed has nothing to do with going for a WS. He's had many of chances to hit lefties and doesn't. It's okay. He's on the good end of the platoon. His value will be just fine if a team is in the market for a 2B with okay defense.

 

 

We're not trying to win the WS, but we're currently 0-0. That doesn't mean the season gets punted. Weird things happen, like the Bucks randomly finishing at .500 last year and giving the Bulls everything they could handle in the playoffs. This team shouldn't be underestimated in April, if things go right we do have pieces to hover around .500 towards the ASB. Scooter needs to be platooned until we're out of it, and then if it is necessary let him have his at bats. I don't really see him as a long term fit here anyway though so I don't see the prerogative to do so.

[FVBrewerFan]

We're not trying to win the WS, but we're currently 0-0. That doesn't mean the season gets punted.

 

Yes it does, they've already punted. And that's not including a Lucroy trade that's still possible, and Ryan Braun's back acting up before the season even started. There is no chance at any magic. Scooter has a better chance of being in the All Star Game than the Brewers have of making the playoffs.

[Boomer5]

We're not trying to win the WS, but we're currently 0-0. That doesn't mean the season gets punted.

 

Yes it does, they've already punted. And that's not including a Lucroy trade that's still possible, and Ryan Braun's back acting up before the season even started. There is no chance at any magic. Scooter has a better chance of being in the All Star Game than the Brewers have of making the playoffs.

 

We are definitely on the same page as far as the Brewers plans this year. This season will about giving young guys some reps and building the farm in the form of trades and the draft.

 

Personally I like Scooter for exactly what he is; a really nice platoon 2nd baseman. Its not a crime that he cant hit lefties and he cant play SS/3B. He is a nice player to have and should have a good 400 AB season. Nothing more, nothing less.

[superfly]

We're not trying to win the WS, but we're currently 0-0. That doesn't mean the season gets punted.

 

Yes it does, they've already punted. And that's not including a Lucroy trade that's still possible, and Ryan Braun's back acting up before the season even started. There is no chance at any magic. Scooter has a better chance of being in the All Star Game than the Brewers have of making the playoffs.

 

 

Are we really that much worse than the Twins? Same questionable pitching staff, lot of unproven hitting. They contended until the final couple weeks of the season...by no means am I saying I believe in the playoffs or anything like that, but it is a feasible possibility for this team to overachieve.

[sveumrules]

Count me firmly in the "please no Scooter against LHP" camp.

 

Over the last three seasons 458 batters have at least 100 plate appearances against LHP. Scooter is dead last, 458th out of 458 with a .135 wOBA. If you think it's unfair to include all the righties in the sample Scooter is 126th out of 126 lefties.

 

For comparison, Ike Davis is 457th/125th & he has a .182 wOBA, almost 50 points higher. That's like the difference between Miguel Cabrera & Kendrys Morales, but on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

60 pitchers have at least 100 plate appearances over the last 3 years. 40 of them have a wOBA higher than Scooter's .135 vs LHP. League average wOBA for pitchers the last three years has been .152, .141 & .147.

[pacopete4]

Count me firmly in the "please no Scooter against LHP" camp.

 

Over the last three seasons 458 batters have at least 100 plate appearances against LHP. Scooter is dead last, 458th out of 458 with a .135 wOBA. If you think it's unfair to include all the righties in the sample Scooter is 126th out of 126 lefties.

 

For comparison, Ike Davis is 457th/125th & he has a .182 wOBA, almost 50 points higher. That's like the difference between Miguel Cabrera & Kendrys Morales, but on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

60 pitchers have at least 100 plate appearances over the last 3 years. 40 of them have a wOBA higher than Scooter's .135 vs LHP. League average wOBA for pitchers the last three years has been .152, .141 & .147.

 

 

Thank you for this. This argument gets old in a hurry and hopefully this sheds more than enough light on the subject.

[MKE81]

Scooter isn't going to be the 2b of the future so I'd platoon him and trade him at some point. Walsh gets on base and needs to get PT there for that reason alone. I'd send Rivera to AAA to play 2b every day and let him continue to develop. Perez was just ok last year but over winter and continuing into spring he looks much improved. Given he can cover 3 IF spots I'd roll with him and Walsh as backups.

[bork]

I think the 40 man spot will work against Perez. They already have to add Cappy and Boyer. Liriano to the 60 day is 1 move. Not sure if there is another 60 day DL move. I don't think there's another guy you'd risk losing just to keep Perez.

[FVBrewerFan]

Count me firmly in the "please no Scooter against LHP" camp.

 

Over the last three seasons 458 batters have at least 100 plate appearances against LHP. Scooter is dead last, 458th out of 458 with a .135 wOBA. If you think it's unfair to include all the righties in the sample Scooter is 126th out of 126 lefties.

 

For comparison, Ike Davis is 457th/125th & he has a .182 wOBA, almost 50 points higher. That's like the difference between Miguel Cabrera & Kendrys Morales, but on the opposite end of the spectrum.

 

60 pitchers have at least 100 plate appearances over the last 3 years. 40 of them have a wOBA higher than Scooter's .135 vs LHP. League average wOBA for pitchers the last three years has been .152, .141 & .147.

 

Fully aware of his history vs LHP. But there are times when a young hitter figures it out. Usually the don't, since they're never given enough opportunity to get comfortable or they simply can't and never will be able to hit LHP. This season, there's no good reason not to give him more opportunities against LHP, and if he fails I'll shut up about it forever.

 

Whether he's part of the future for the Brewers or not, he's obviously more valuable if he can prove to be a full time player at the position.

[JohnBriggs12]

Scooter had 32 AB's vs. LHP while down at Colorado Springs last year. He had 12 hits, 5 doubles, 1 3B, and 1 HR. That's a .375/.412/.688 line. Among the LH pitchers he got multiple hits off were John Lamb, a key prospect that went to Reds in Cueto deal and Ty Blach, one of the top pitching prospects in the Giants system.

 

Even after that display, he did not get a single start vs. a lefty the remainder of the year for the Brewers. It's a lot easier on LH hitters when they see a guy 2-3 times a game. Gennett only sees the occasional lefty specialist, once ever 10 days or so. That would be tough on Joey Votto. In short, it's a self-fulfilling prophesy. No way Gennett can improve vs. LHP without seeing them regularly, but when his manager doesn't have the patience to let him see LHP, of course he's going to struggle on those occasions when he does.

[monty57]

The backup IFs are all young-ish with some potential, so they could use PAs, and should all be able to hit LHP better than Gennett.

 

I would also argue that if we are looking to trade him, Gennett at .800 OPS hitting solely vs RHP will be more enticing in trade than Gennett at .710 OPS playing everyday.

 

Hitting Gennett vs LHP is a slightly better idea than telling a RHP to occasionally pitch left-handed to showcase his versatility. Let him do what he's good at and not what makes him look bad. I like Gennett and think he will have a good season as long as he is used properly. I also like Walsh, and think he will do well if he is given some playing time. I'd like for him to get 25% of the starts at 2B, and a decent number of starts at 3B, potentially even taking over at 3B if Hill plays like he has in the recent past.

[JohnBriggs12]

"The backup IF's are all young-ish with some potential"

 

Last year they weren't. Gennett was getting platooned with career minor leaguers, Hector Gomez and Elian Herrera. The problem was Scooter wasn't hitting anybody the first 6 weeks, so Roenicke had zero patience sticking to the plan for him to play everyday, having given him exactly one start vs. a lefty. Then Counsell never started him against a lefty preferring to divvy up those AB's among Herrera, Perez, and Gomez, until Gomez played himself off the roster.

 

Scooter looks primed for a fine season. He's never looked better this spring. I'm not so sure both Walsh and Rivera make the roster, but if they do, I'm sure Counsell will want to get them time, but Walsh can play 3B and Rivera can play SS and Hill and Villar, the nominal starters there, certainly aren't guys that you can't sit a few days a week too. Neither has been tearing the cover off the ball in Arizona. How about Walsh at 3B, Rivera (or Perez) at SS and Gennett at 2B if you want an infield with some future?

[pacopete4]

Scooter had 32 AB's vs. LHP while down at Colorado Springs last year. He had 12 hits, 5 doubles, 1 3B, and 1 HR. That's a .375/.412/.688 line. Among the LH pitchers he got multiple hits off were John Lamb, a key prospect that went to Reds in Cueto deal and Ty Blach, one of the top pitching prospects in the Giants system.

 

Even after that display, he did not get a single start vs. a lefty the remainder of the year for the Brewers. It's a lot easier on LH hitters when they see a guy 2-3 times a game. Gennett only sees the occasional lefty specialist, once ever 10 days or so. That would be tough on Joey Votto. In short, it's a self-fulfilling prophesy. No way Gennett can improve vs. LHP without seeing them regularly, but when his manager doesn't have the patience to let him see LHP, of course he's going to struggle on those occasions when he does.

 

 

Let it go. He stinks vs. lefties. Just let it go.

 

http://i2.kym-cdn.com/photos/images/original/000/540/656/f26.jpg

[FVBrewerFan]

"The backup IF's are all young-ish with some potential"

 

Last year they weren't. Gennett was getting platooned with career minor leaguers, Hector Gomez and Elian Herrera. The problem was Scooter wasn't hitting anybody the first 6 weeks, so Roenicke had zero patience sticking to the plan for him to play everyday, having given him exactly one start vs. a lefty. Then Counsell never started him against a lefty preferring to divvy up those AB's among Herrera, Perez, and Gomez, until Gomez played himself off the roster.

 

Scooter looks primed for a fine season. He's never looked better this spring. I'm not so sure both Walsh and Rivera make the roster, but if they do, I'm sure Counsell will want to get them time, but Walsh can play 3B and Rivera can play SS and Hill and Villar, the nominal starters there, certainly aren't guys that you can't sit a few days a week too. Neither has been tearing the cover off the ball in Arizona. How about Walsh at 3B, Rivera (or Perez) at SS and Gennett at 2B if you want an infield with some future?

 

I don't always agree with JohnBriggs, but when I do it's about Scooter Gennett.

 

You can't use his numbers from early in his MiLB career and very scattered numbers from his MLB career, while ignoring what he did in CS last year, and ST this year. In each case, it's a small sample size. And that sample means even less when dealing with a young player. Trend means more than what he did 3 or 4 years ago, and the trend is he's able to hit LHP at a serviceable level.

 

If that means taking ABs away from Hill, who shouldn't even be on the roster, sobeit.

[bill hAll Star]

I generally tend to ignore basically all stats for all players at Colorado Springs or at the very least subtract 20%-25% of a player's OPS or FIP/xFIP whatever you want to use.

[And That]

With Rivera making the roster, part of me hopes that Villar tanks early in the season, allowing Rivera to take over. If Rivera can get hot at the plate, they could have an all-of-the-sudden extremely valuable trade piece.

 

Or they could just move him to third once Arcia is deemed ready.