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2016 Opening Day Lineup (and 2016 Batting Order Discussion)


pacopete4

The still to early lineup list.

1. CF winner

2. Braun

3. Lucroy

4. Santana

5. Carter

6. 3b winner

7. Villar

8. Gennett/2b.

9. Pitcher.

 

Seems easy enough. No reason to put another batter ahead of Braun/Lucroy. Santana has long term over Carter single season. So he gets to bat cleanup. I'd figure teams throw less junk to Santana with Carterbehind than To Carter with Santana behind. I give 3b next but maybe Villar deserves 6? Gennett&2b clear 8 regardless. So figuring Villar SB ability I'd rather have Gennett bat behind him as hit and run order.

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Hm, 420 is an interesting choice; I assume it would shatter the record for teammates. Marlon Byrd and Ryan Howard combined for 375 K for the Phillies in '14. Drew Stubbs and Jay Bruce combined for 363 (Votto chipped in another 129). Reynolds and Upton 360 in 09, Reynolds and Chris Young 369 in 08.

 

But if you want teammate K numbers, check out the 2010 dbacks who almost had five guys with 150: Reynolds 211, Laroche 172, Upton 152, Kelly Johnson 148, Chris Young 145. We've got work to do...

 

Of course the Cubs last year led the league in Ks; they had 199 from Bryant, 154 from Fowler, and 149 from Russell, and 90K guys at every position. I'd still take that offense though.

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Of the players currently on the roster. I am for the moment not assuming a Luc trade or a Braun DL to open the season

 

1. CF - Speed and OBA will win this spot, I am assuming Broxton or Reed but since both have options, they might lose the numbers game

2. Villars SS - OBA Speed, some pop. Bad D but could be a sneaky good hitter/SB guy

3. Braun LF - Best overall hitter, concerned about back

4. Luc C - 2nd Best overall hitter though I cant imagine him not being traded

5. Santana RF - Power, could end up being our biggest run producer

6. Carter 1B - Power

7. Scooter 2B - Classic 7/8 hitter

8. Hill 3B - He has to go somewhere I suppose

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Of the players currently on the roster. I am for the moment not assuming a Luc trade or a Braun DL to open the season

 

1. CF - Speed and OBA will win this spot, I am assuming Broxton or Reed but since both have options, they might lose the numbers game

2. Villars SS - OBA Speed, some pop. Bad D but could be a sneaky good hitter/SB guy

3. Braun LF - Best overall hitter, concerned about back

4. Luc C - 2nd Best overall hitter though I cant imagine him not being traded

5. Santana RF - Power, could end up being our biggest run producer

6. Carter 1B - Power

7. Scooter 2B - Classic 7/8 hitter

8. Hill 3B - He has to go somewhere I suppose

I'd flip-flop Carter and Scooter. If the CF struggles, I would move CF to 9th, as long as Lucroy is on the team, to keep Luc's numbers up.

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  • 2 weeks later...

The hints so far are that Braun is the only lock at #3, and Counsell is looking at Santana (high OBP) at leadoff. For what it's worth, Santana said he'd like to hit there.

 

So, here's a shot

 

Vs LHP

 

1) Santana - RF

2) Lucroy - C

3) Braun - LF

4) Carter - 1B

5) Hill - 3B

6) Liriano - CF

7) Villar - SS

8) Rivera/Walsh/Perez (vs. LHP) - 2B (or play Hill at 2B with one of these guys at 3B)

9) Pitcher

 

vs RHP

 

1) Santana - RF

2) Gennett - 2B

3) Braun - LF

4) Carter - 1B

5) Lucroy - C

6) Hill - 3B

7) Liriano - CF

8) Villar - SS

9) Pitcher

 

That leaves a lot of talent AAA (and a whole lot more if we were looking at pitching)

 

1B - Wilkins/Middlebrooks

2B - Rivera (should probably make MLB, but if we want to hold onto Walsh and Perez, he'll start in AAA)

SS - Arcia

3B - Cecchini

LF - Broxton

CF - Phillips

RF - Reed

C - Pinto/Pina/Weisenburger

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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watching Santana absolutely dominant pitchers so far this Spring Training has put a big smile on my face :D

 

Don't worry guys, he was awful in Winter Ball & has carried a higher K%, career is still over.... Even though he will more likely than not always carry a OBP over .380 and OPS .850+ Guy is a hitter, a walker, has power to all fields, and CC is seriously considering him for the lead off spot....he is only 23.... guy could be a borderline All-Star every year. Since he got him in the trade, he is very similar type of player as Corey Hart. Same build, athletic ability (Santana maybe a little more), the power, hit tool, except Santana will double Harts walks and out OBP by .40-.80 a season. He will K a little more than Hart though.

 

I don't see Broxton as of right now not making team unless they are keeping both Liriano and Flores due to being out of options. CC has been talking him up a lot and so far, so good on his performance. Happy Arcia's bat hasn't shined. I think he still needs a lot of time in AAA to continue to grow at the plate and shouldn't be rushed. If he would come out and hit .300+ people would be calling for him opening day.

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Wow talk about banking on spring training numbers! What are they against? Scrub pitchers? Real pitchers just working on one pitch? They have played like 10 games pitchers are extremely rusty still.

 

I have a hard time caring about spring training numbers. Look at the scores for games they are ridiculous. Domingo is going to be fine and put up some numbers, but no need to call him an all star.

 

If we take Santana's numbers at face value might as well take Arcia's at face value too. Might have to pull him out of the organization Top 30.

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Wow talk about banking on spring training numbers! What are they against? Scrub pitchers? Real pitchers just working on one pitch? They have played like 10 games pitchers are extremely rusty still.

 

I have a hard time caring about spring training numbers. Look at the scores for games they are ridiculous. Domingo is going to be fine and put up some numbers, but no need to call him an all star.

 

If we take Santana's numbers at face value might as well take Arcia's at face value too. Might have to pull him out of the organization Top 30.

 

A bit harsh are we? If you have no value or interest in Spring Training numbers, that's your prerogative, but it's hard not to notice what Santana's done thus far. No one expects him to have a season with a 1.767 OPS, but it's certainly nice to see him taking a good approach at the plate and not looking as lost out there as he did in his offseason showing, as I'm sure, Spring Training or not, if he had 10 strikeouts and a sub-.200 batting average right now, there'd be some reason for concern. I don't think phrases like "guy could be a borderline All-Star every year" are totally ridiculous as I think that's what his skill set, prospect status, and our hope was when we acquired him, not just a gut reaction to limited Spring Training at bats. His start to Spring Training just backs up that he is capable of playing like that. Hopefully he continues it into the season!

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My comment was more based on how some people were acting like the sky was falling and Santana career was done after his winter ball stint and because he K's at a higher %. I didn't say he was an All-Star, I said a borderline All-Star like Cory Hart. A guy who could easily be in consideration every year. There is a good amount of similarity between their game and tools. I didn't put much emphasis in his ST numbers outside of saying his dominance has put a big smile on my face to seeing him come out mashing due to the people who have been so negative on him. He does have a track record of hitting for average, power, and getting on base outside of spring training....

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I think Santana will be fine, and comparing their all-around games, I don't think we will be taking a step back in moving from Davis to Santana. Looking at the lineups I posted above, if we hold on to Lucroy I don't think our offense will be terrible. We have some question marks, and guys hoping to bounce back, but that's expected at this stage. We should be better than normal for a team in the first real year of a rebuild.

"The most successful (people) know that performance over the long haul is what counts. If you can seize the day, great. But never forget that there are days yet to come."

 

~Bill Walsh

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It's early but if Rivera continues outperforming Villar in camp, maybe he'll claim opening day SS job. Alex Presley was kind of an afterthought in the OF competition heading into camp, but he's far outperformed Peterson and Nieuwenhuis, and might find himself in soft platoon in CF with Broxton come opening day.

 

Guys who need to pick it up: Peterson, Nieuwenhuis, Liriano, Walsh, Middlebrooks. Still time, but next 7-10 days critical for those guys.

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Santana looks like he is ready to make the leap to the next level. I loved the trade at the time and nothing I saw at the end of 2015 made me thing otherwise. He has the makings of an elite run producer.

 

What can we make out of spring training stats? Santana sure passes the eye test as they say.

 

Spring is an interesting time. Small samples. Guys working on things they wouldnt do in a game. Pitching is low end. Etc Etc Etc. While Santana is tearing it up, the scrapheap brigade has for the most part (other than EYJr and Wilkins) been terrible.

 

More spring fun: Do yourself a favor and do not look up how Sardinas is doing...........

 

As of now assuming Braun can be ready opening day????, its looks like:

 

Santana RF 1596 Spring OPS

Villars SS 490

Braun LF N/A

Luc C 820

Carter 1B 854

Hill 3B 618

Flores CF 649

Walsh 2B 623

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More spring fun: Do yourself a favor and do not look up how Sardinas is doing...........

 

I'm sure it would have no effect on me. If ST stats had anything to do with anything, Aramis Ramirez would never have had an MLB career. He was notorious as a slow starter.

 

Guys that played winterball are certainly ahead of the curve from guys that didn't. Both Sardinas and Santana came in fairly "baseball" ready where other guys are knocking off some rust.

 

Maybe they should have a HOF for ST. :)

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Halfway through Spring Training Predictions

 

25 Man Locks

 

Position Players

1B Chris Carter

2B Scooter Gennett

SS Johnathon Villar

3B Aaron Hill

C Johnathon Lucroy

LF Ryan Braun

CF No One Locked in

RF Domingo Santana

 

Bench

C Martin Maladondo

UT-MIF No One Locked In

UT-CIF No One Locked In

OF 4 No One Locked In

OF 5/Last Bat No One Locked In

 

Rotation

Wily Peralta

Jimmy Nelson

Matt Garza

Taylor Jungmann

Chase Anderson

 

Relief

LR No One Locked In

MR M. Blazek

MR T. Thornburg

MR C. Knebel

LOOGY No One Locked In

CP/SU Will Smith

CP/SU Jeremy Jeffress

 

 

Pretty Sure bets

CF Keon Broxton has gotten pretty good reviews and appears to be a close to sure thing if he doesn't fall off

 

UT-MIF

 

 

Remaining top battles

UT-MIF

Yadiel Rivera - Worst case scenario with him on roster is he gives the a plus defender at 3 defensive positions (SS, 2B, 3B). His bat was impressive for a large portion of last season, AFL, Winter League was brutal, but appears to have bounced back to form this spring

 

Hernan Perez once again is hitting the ball, of course he is at 0 walks which almost matches his total from last season already. His power is coming, solid defender, gives flexibility, has shown ability to hit for decent average. I just hate his inability to take a walk.

 

Winner as of now Yadiel Rivera

 

UT-CIF

 

Hernan Perez

Colin Walsh

Andy Wilkins

Will Middlebrooks

 

Hernan Perez once again is hitting the ball, of course he is at 0 walks which almost matches his total from last season already. His power is coming, solid defender, gives flexibility, has shown ability to hit for decent average. I just hate his inability to take a walk.

 

Colin Walsh Has been okay, has shown his ability to walk but needs to step up overall play in order to make the team. Offers some flexibility as well.

 

Andy Wilkins has been great with the bat so far but with Chris Carter already at 1st and him not offering much flexibility in the field, hard to see him being able to make the team. If he does, he will be there power bench bat and could excel in that role.

 

Will Middlebrook hasn't done much to impress since his bomb in the opening game. a .474 OPS so far, isn't going to earn you a job.

 

Garin Cecchini I didn't list because he hasn't gotten the looks the other guys have. I see him being sent down to AAA to start out the season.

 

Winner so Far Hernan Perez

 

Next: Colin Walsh

 

OF 4

Ramon Flores- Out of options so needs to make the team. Thanks to his ability to play 3 OF positions and 1B, he has put himself in a good position to be able to make the team, his bat hasn't hurt his cause.

 

Rymer Liriano- Started out generating a lot of buzz but his bat has died off. Out of options I still like him the best for the OF 4 due to potential but needs to wake back up.

 

Eric Young Jr. His bat has been solid so far and he is what he is. Never a bad thing to have a guy like EY Jr at the back of the bench where he offers flexibility in the OF and Speed. Still a long shot

 

Alex Pressley: Guy is showing he wants to make this team and is making the Brewers truely consider him. See how it plays out of next couple weeks.

 

Kirk Niewenhuis- Know for his defense, his bat hasn't shown a reason to make the team yet. Been fairly disappointed so far since I had high hopes for him. Other OFs have shown much more

 

Shane Peterson offers the flexibility you want out of the last man since he can play 3 OF spots and 1B but has failed to get bat going at all this spring so far. Outlook isn't great as of today.

 

Winner as of today: Rymer Liriano (based on potential)

 

Next: Alex Pressley

 

 

Final Bench Bat/ OF 5

Someone who can be an Emergency OF if need be but makes the roster based on the bat or all around flexibility

 

Colin Walsh Has been okay, has shown his ability to walk but needs to step up overall play in order to make the team. Offers some flexibility as well.

 

Andy Wilkins has been great with the bat so far but with Chris Carter already at 1st and him not offering much flexibility in the field, hard to see him being able to make the team. If he does, he will be there power bench bat and could excel in that role.

 

Will Middlebrook hasn't done much to impress since his bomb in the opening game. a .474 OPS so far, isn't going to earn you a job.

 

Ramon Flores- Out of options so needs to make the team. Thanks to his ability to play 3 OF positions and 1B, he has put himself in a good position to be able to make the team, his bat hasn't hurt his cause.

 

Rymer Liriano- Started out generating a lot of buzz but his bat has died off. Out of options I still like him the best for the OF 4 due to potential but needs to wake back up.

 

Eric Young Jr. His bat has been solid so far and he is what he is. Never a bad thing to have a guy like EY Jr at the back of the bench where he offers flexibility in the OF and Speed. Still a long shot

 

Alex Pressley: Guy is showing he wants to make this team and is making the Brewers truely consider him. See how it plays out of next couple weeks.

 

Kirk Niewenhuis- Know for his defense, his bat hasn't shown a reason to make the team yet. Been fairly disappointed so far since I had high hopes for him. Other OFs have shown much more

 

Shane Peterson offers the flexibility you want out of the last man since he can play 3 OF spots and 1B but has failed to get bat going at all this spring so far. Outlook isn't great as of today.

 

Winner so Far: Ramon Flores

 

Next: Andy Wilkins

 

LOOGY/ Lefty Middle to Long - I believe this team should have two lefties (since i'm biased that lefties are naturally superior) or because Smith is high leverage Set up and closer & we could use a another lefty for other situations over burning Smith.

 

Chris Capuano Has pitched well, he can be a long reliever or do the Loogy thing. Be interesting to see if he makes it or not. He has made a good case for it.

 

Sean Nolin same as Capuano in that he can both LR, MR, or do the Loogy thing. In a very small sample of 4games 5IP he has actually been arguably the best pitcher this spring.

Cesar Jiminez based on last year, he would make on team but since he still hasn't made it to camp, he is running out of time to compete for a job.

 

Winner as of today: Sean Nolin

 

Next Cappy

 

 

Last Bullpen Spot:

 

Ariel Pena

Zach Jones

David Goforth

Junior Guerra

B. Boyer

D. Tillman

Jaye Chapman

 

Crap shot right now

Pena, Jones, and Goforth are the ones I am kindo of hoping for but Pena has been awful, Jones has been hurt, and Goforth has just been alright.

 

Pena & Jones we will lose if they don't make team. Some team I think ill take a flier on Pena, don't see why Twins would take Jones back.

 

Winner: Ariel Pena because he can spot start and performed well enough last year that is rough start doesn't matter much.

 

Next. Goforth, still has an option, has gotten good experience at the mlb level

 

So hard to judge pitchers because of all the different things they are working on

 

Final Look:

1B Carter

2B Gennett

SS Villar

3B Hill

C Lucroy

LF Braun

CF Broxton

RF Santana

 

Bench

C/1B Maladondo

UT MIF Yadiel Rivera

UTIF Hernan Perez

OF 4 Rymer Liriano

OF5/1B Ramon Flores

 

12 Pitchers

Rotation

Peralta

Nelson

Garza

Jungmann

Anderson

 

Bullpen

A. Pena

S. Nolin

 

T. Thornburg

M. Blazek

C. Knebel

 

J. Jeffress

W. Smith

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Santana is off to a great spring start but he obviously won't replicate those numbers during the regular season. That being said, he's a massive upgrade over Davis, as I've stated before. Yes, I used the word massive because he's a better all-around hitter and defensive player (arm included) by far. Liriano has struggled offensively and he's solely a corner OF if you've seen him run around this spring. Broxton or Flores should start in CF (both should make team). Walsh is struggling BA wise but he still has a great approach every AB and has a high OBP while being able to play multiple positions. 222/360 off bench is much better than the 222/280 we're accustomed too. He should be kept. Wilkins has earned a spot thus far but you'd need another IF off bench and keep only 1 backup OF for that to happen (assuming they keep 12 pitchers). Sounds like they want to keep 5 OF so it'll be interesting to see who that 5th OF is as Braun, Santana, Broxton, Flores seem locks as of today. I can see them keeping Liriano just for the potential and pop off the bench since that will be lacking big time and that can give him the advantage over EY and Presley, both of whom you know what you're getting at 30yrs old and it's nothing great. And as a 5th OF you can take a chance on someone like Liriano. Flores can dip into 1b as well so that hurts Wilkins chances too. So then you're looking at an IF who can play SS as well since there's no backup there. Rivera has earned it but not sure they want him platooning instead of playing every day in AAA. Perez is the other guy then.

 

Santana, Scooter, Braun, Lucroy, Carter, Hill, Villar, Broxton. Broxton/Flores can always slide into 2 hole as well. If Santana isn't going 4 then it must be Lucroy otherwise they'll walk Braun all day to face Carter/Hill.

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1. Santana

2. Gennett

3. Braun

4. Carter

5. Lucroy

6. Hill

7. Villar

8. Broxton

9. Peralta

 

or

 

Broxton

Lucroy

Braun

Santana

Carter

Hill

Gennett

Villar

 

seems like CC likes Santana at the top of the order

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Since Flores is out of options, and they're experimenting with him playing some 1B, he seems like close to a lock. Broxton looks like a natural to start in CF, but he does have options so he may be sent down. Liriano is also out of options, so probably gets the nod over others based on his youth/ceiling vs other guys. Any of the others would be perfectly acceptable in the 5th OF role, but something has to give.

 

In the IF, all depends on whether they want to carry Walsh or not. I think Rivera has made it for sure as UI. Perez starts at 3B, Cecchini to AAA.

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UT-CIF

 

Hernan Perez

Colin Walsh

Andy Wilkins

Will Middlebrooks

 

Hernan Perez once again is hitting the ball, of course he is at 0 walks which almost matches his total from last season already. His power is coming, solid defender, gives flexibility, has shown ability to hit for decent average. I just hate his inability to take a walk.

 

Colin Walsh Has been okay, has shown his ability to walk but needs to step up overall play in order to make the team. Offers some flexibility as well.

 

 

 

 

 

LOOGY/ Lefty Middle to Long - I believe this team should have two lefties (since i'm biased that lefties are naturally superior) or because Smith is high leverage Set up and closer & we could use a another lefty for other situations over burning Smith.

 

Chris Capuano Has pitched well, he can be a long reliever or do the Loogy thing. Be interesting to see if he makes it or not. He has made a good case for it.

 

Sean Nolin same as Capuano in that he can both LR, MR, or do the Loogy thing. In a very small sample of 4games 5IP he has actually been arguably the best pitcher this spring.

Cesar Jiminez based on last year, he would make on team but since he still hasn't made it to camp, he is running out of time to compete for a job.

 

Winner as of today: Sean Nolin

 

 

Thanks for the nice write-up.

 

Hernan has a sub-.300 OBP and 6K to 0BBs. The Brewers already chose Walsh over him when they outrighted him this offseason (and then, 29 other teams passed on him). He hasn't done anything to show he is a different player. I'd put the odds at 95-5 Walsh at this point.

 

I think Flores is in lock territory. Stearns didnt give up a decent young shortstop for him just to cut him based off of spring training. Since he already projects for a 100wRC by basically every projection, I doubt he'd clear waivers.

 

I don't know if you left Morales intentionally since he has yet to pitch, but the fact they brought him in when they did, tells me they saw a need and he has a good shot to make this team. I think Nolin offers the most longterm upside but I've yet to see a velocity report on him showing he is throwing above 90 again. If he is working in the mid-80s, I doubt he cracks the roster.

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Yeah I just forgot about Morales.

 

I would agree with Flores as pretty close to a lock, the 1B option kind of cements it in my opinion

 

For similar reasons, I think the Brewers know they have too much in Liriano (upside) to give up on him based on ST. He would appear to be a lock.

 

You made a great point about Walsh over Perez. I personally would take Walsh 10 out of 10 times over Perez simply because I greatly value players who get on base. Considering Perez doesn't have the ability to OBP even .20-.30 above his batting average, he has little wiggle room if his bat cools off. Walsh like Chris Carter can hit .200 and still keep a .330 or so OBP (close to league average). Perez hits .200 his OBP will be .220 which is not worth a bag of balls.

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Great write up! I agree with most all of your assessments so far.

 

It should also be noted that Zach Davies is having himself a nice little spring so far and is a near lock for our 6th starter/first rotation call-up from AAA. Kind of a shame he can't get MLB experience from the get-go (stupid Garza!) but I'm confident that he should still log 100+ MLB innings this year somehow(injury, ineffectiveness, trade, etc.)

 

Also of note, Wily Peralta looks like he is throwing batting practice to opposing teams out there! Hoping we can package him in a Lucroy trade somehow to increase our return get something for him while he still has his current value.

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Has Barrios been injuried? It is a shame because I thought he would have a great chance to push for a job this spring.

 

Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson, and Matt Garza all need career first halves or seasons. Im much more interested in watching Davies, Lopez, Hader, Houser over them. I've lost a lot of faith in Wily and he is only going to cost more money from here on out.

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Thanks and that is a shame. Sure after I ask they write an article on it lol http://m.brewers.mlb.com/news/article/167940412/brewers-yhonathan-barrios-injures-shoulder

 

Also naturally after I make some less than stellar remarks about Middlebrook and Niewenhuis, they have really nice games. Still Broxton, Liriano, and Flores are the 3 we need to keep. Pressley deserves it the most as of right now but honestly, do you keep a 30 year old 4th OF during a rebuild over a couple 23-24 year olds? Feel bad for him but its about the future.

 

Walsh 0-0 BB

Liriano 0-2 2 more k's......not helping himself very much

Flores and Broxton continue to hit a little bit each adding 1. .808 OPS for Broxton so far.

 

Forgot Morales was a lefty, think he will take spot of Nolin and Cappy

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