Brewers sign Chris Carter to a 1-year, $2.5 mil deal

[pacopete4]

I've been thinking about this signing since it was announced a few days ago, and I'm really warming to it. The Brewers are poker players in 2016. We're in the tournament, but there's no realistic expectation to win the big prize this year. So, we're looking to acquire chips. If we can take Carter, flip him for a prospect that in any way improves our overall organizational talent, that's a win for us. Because while signing Carter doesn't help this team in the long run, acquiring young players that we can package in deals for long term pieces very much does.

 

Tom Tango's Marcels Projections on Baseball Reference shows that Carter should have a bit of a bounce back year in 2016. He projects a .221 AVG with 26 HR and 68 RBI, his slash line .311 OBP/.454 SLG/.765 OPS.

 

I'm good with that.

 

And RBI's are so hard to predict. It could be 60 but it could also be 80+

[3and2Fastball]

Tom Tango's Marcels Projections on Baseball Reference shows that Carter should have a bit of a bounce back year in 2016. He projects a .221 AVG with 26 HR and 68 RBI, his slash line .311 OBP/.454 SLG/.765 OPS.

.

 

Hard to imagine him only hitting 26 HR's if he plays a full season as a Brewer and hits .221 ..... in a bounce back year he'll hit more than his average amount of HR's per season (30 over the last 3 years)

[homer]

Steamer is a little more optimistic predicting a .777 OPS (223/318/458)

 

His BABIP was pretty bad last year (244) so I would imagine his average would be a bit better at the very least.

[Jenkins5]

Steamer is a little more optimistic predicting a .777 OPS (223/318/458)

 

His BABIP was pretty bad last year (244) so I would imagine his average would be a bit better at the very least.

 

Wonder what the issue was? Just that bad of luck or he just wasn't squaring up on anything at all. That is a terrible babip

[homer]

Steamer is a little more optimistic predicting a .777 OPS (223/318/458)

 

His BABIP was pretty bad last year (244) so I would imagine his average would be a bit better at the very least.

 

Wonder what the issue was? Just that bad of luck or he just wasn't squaring up on anything at all. That is a terrible babip

 

 

more ground balls, fewer line drives

[TooLiveBrew]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

How much do you know about any of those players?

[Jenkins5]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

 

Lind's option was solely picked up to trade him this off-season.... DS never once even spoke to him. I say there was 1 or less percent DS was going to not move him before ST. Regardless of who we got in trade, it is not overally important to our success in future. We got him for Estrada & it is not like he is an elite bat.

 

Brewers were looking for 1B prior to trade of Rogers. I'm sure they would have kept him if not blown away by Pirates. Not sure anyone would have thought we get a return like that for him. Rogers has looked like a platoon bat

 

Sneed.... Is this really an issue? We got a possible stud/ Bill Hall types who can play all over the field, has a good bat, can get on base, was a top prospect, and has great speed. Once again.... Is trading Sneed who was burried on our depth chart really an issue? Also have no clue how th

 

Sardinas for Flores has no real impact on our prospects of winning or being competitive.

 

Signing Carter who is going to hit 25+ HRs and give 75+ RBIs isn't going to hurt our cause for winning over next three years as compared to having Rogers. If he hits .220 with .320 OBP .775 OPS. I feel that is absolutely fine with the run production you still get out of him.

 

Cecchini, Middlebrook, Nieuwenhuis are three guys that are still younger & entering primes who were top 10 prospects that never really got shots or fall off during the opportunities they were given. All 3 of the these guys could produce and help win games. I went through baseball almanac looking at the mid 90s Mariner teams and old Brewer lineups and many of the guys who were big producers didn't start producing until 27+ or new got real opportunity to show what they offer. Blecher Report gave Middlebrook the best off-season move by Brewers & said he may be one of the steals of the off-season. If any of these guys play at the level people thought they would when coming up as prospects, they could really help us win & compete. Middlebrook could easily be a 30+ HR near .900 OPS guy if he gets back to where he was his 1st season.

 

None of these moves either really help nor hurt our chances. Braun, Lucroy, Nelson, Smith Davis Peralta Jeffress are the big ones really change our team and where he stand Segura has been extremely replaceable for awhile so I left him off.

 

Overall our winning for the future is based on how deep our system is. We need to have an elite system loaded with depth. We fill our roster with homegrown talent and trade off other pieces who are blocked for impact players. If you have enough depth, big trades won't cripple you the way our other past trades had.

 

I see no point talking about our lack of depth at certain positions right now.... DS is 3 months on the job, still has 6-8 weeks until spring with many pieces to still possibly trade, & his staff has yet to draft yet.... Did you expect Lind, KRod, Sardines, Sneed & Rogers to rebuild all our depth in minor leagues with impact prospects? You don't take a less talented player in a trade because he plays a position you need more depth at another position. You always take BPA. If Brewers front office who knows far more about the prospects they trade for than any of us, feel those are the best value players (regardless to national sites ranking) you simply trust they know what they are doing.

 

We will be fine & competitive again. Trust the process and our front office in knowing what they are doing

[craigharmann]

Steamer is a little more optimistic predicting a .777 OPS (223/318/458)

 

His BABIP was pretty bad last year (244) so I would imagine his average would be a bit better at the very least.

 

Wonder what the issue was? Just that bad of luck or he just wasn't squaring up on anything at all. That is a terrible babip

 

He was either hitting the ball out of the park, flying/grounding out or striking out. The latter two were more prevalent.

[MKE81]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

 

How will we compete during Arcia/Phillips era? Easy. With the talent we currently have in place combined with the future talent coming through system and future talent via trades/signings. Assuming none of the guys in minors are traded you're looking at Braun, Phillips, Santana in OF with 1b coming externally, lot of options at 2b (Villar/Rivera/Walsh/external), Arcia, 3b has options (Cecchini/external) and Lucroy C. Guys like Villar, Rivera, Walsh, Cecchini - if never become dependable starters - can offer strong bench play along with Broxton's tools in OF. Can also flip them individually or in packages for talent that aligns better with what Stearns wants to accomplish. Can add Reed, Taylor as potential contributors in OF coming up. There will be cap space to get quality FAs in spots that need to be filled.

 

Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Lopez, Hader by 2017 plus add Houser, Barrios, Barnes, Magnifico to already strong pen (Houser also rotation candidate too). Now factor in the strong pitching prospects we already have in system that will be up in 2-3yrs after this wave if stay on course. Plus position guys like Trent Clark.

 

Now add all the talent we'll get from trading other pieces I didn't even mention in 2017 roster (Garza, Khris Davis, Segura, Scooter). Those trades will bolster the organization at all levels, guaranteed. Plus, if Lucroy is traded you'll see a nice haul in return there too. Will Smoth and Jeffress most likely will be traded as well within a year or two and no doubt we'll add organizational talent in return. Now factor in the drafts! This is how you contend annually for the long-term. A strong foundation is in place with the 2017 talent.

 

People act like Rogers was an automatic contributor as full time starter. He's most likely not. He played well in platoon. I liked Rogers but I'm more excited about Carter at 1b knowing he's not the long-term solution while hitting 30HR+. No way was Rogers part of the future and getting Broxton/Supek in return was a great move. Villar for Sneed also a great move. For me, Stearns hasn't made one head scratching move. They're analytical approaches statistically (player performance) and in terms of his vision for the future. He's playing chess while you're playing Uno (confession: I love Uno)