Brewers sign Chris Carter to a 1-year, $2.5 mil deal

[craigharmann]

McCalvy discusses the Carter signing here.

Watching the video, it's amazing how apparently effortless his power can be - just a little weight shift and POW.

 

No doubt. But to hit the ball, you have to make contact. Carter struggles to lay off pitches that cause him to swing and miss. Badly.

[MadScientist]

For a forum that loved Branyon, I'm surprised that there isn't more love for Carter. I hope the hitting coach doesn't try to 'fix' him to make him a 250 hitter. Just work a little on pitch selection to get the OBP up. If he can get that close to 350, with 30 HR's that should put him in the 800 OPS range. Valuable to keep or trade, and well within the realm of possibilities.

[1992casey]

Branyan carried an above average OBP rather than a below average one.

[Jenkins5]

He keeps his OBP .100 points higher than his batting average. He hits .230-.250, then he is a .330-.350 OBP guy this season

[jerichoholicninja]

He keeps his OBP .100 points higher than his batting average. He hits .230-.250, then he is a .330-.350 OBP guy this season

 

If he hits under .200 like he did for most of last year (I know he did, I had him on a fantasy team till the all star break waiting for him to turn it around and he didn't until late August) then his OBP is around .300. But he is what he is and next year is what it is too.

[pacopete4]

Our starting shortstop carries a career .301 OBP and our starting second basemen has a career .318... I think Carter will fit in fine. At least he'll stroke one to the seats often and set off some fireworks.

[homer]

Our starting shortstop carries a career .301 OBP and our starting second basemen has a career .318... I think Carter will fit in fine. At least he'll stroke one to the seats often and set off some fireworks.

 

Walsh will supplant Scooter and get on base at a .400 clip

[Jenkins5]

I was going to say .300 Obp is just as good if not better than what we get out of Scooter, Segura, Perez, and etc. at least with Carter you also get 30 HRs and 80 RBI's. Carter is a scary guy in that at any moment he can go off and be one of the most dangerous bats as he did in September. You just have to hope he can swing and hit a little more

[Eye Black]

Branyan carried an above average OBP rather than a below average one.

Unless I am missing something (which is certainly possible), I don't think that is accurate. From what I can tell Branyan's OBP was above league average in only three of his 12 seasons (listed below). League average OBP has taken a nose dive in recent years. Carter has exceeded league average OBP in two of his four seasons (also listed below) and never been further than .010 below league average.

 

Here are both players compared to league average OBP in years they had over 150 plate appearances...

 

Russell Branyan

2000 - Age 24 - .327 OBP / league avg OBP .345

2001 - Age 25 - .316 OBP / league avg OBP .332

2002 - Age 26 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .331

2003 - Age 27 - .322 OBP / league avg OBP .333

2004 - Age 28 - .324 OBP / league avg OBP .335

2005 - Age 29 - .378 OBP / league avg OBP .330

2006 - Age 30 - .327 OBP / league avg OBP .337

2007 - Age 31 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .336

2008 - Age 32 - .342 OBP / league avg OBP .333

2009 - Age 33 - .349 OBP / league avg OBP .333

2010 - Age 34 - .323 OBP / league avg OBP .325

2011 - Age 35 - .297 OBP (only 146 PAs) / league avg OBP .321

 

Chris Carter

2012 - Age 25 - .350 OBP / league avg OBP .319

2013 - Age 26 - .320 OBP / league avg OBP .318

2014 - Age 27 - .308 OBP / league avg OBP .314

2015 - Age 28 - .307 OBP / league avg OBP .317

[Jenkins5]

Anyone else find it fascinating how much the league average OBP has dropped over the years in baseball?

[homer]

Anyone else find it fascinating how much the league average OBP has dropped over the years in baseball?

 

 

I wonder how much the league OBP drops from 2000 - 2004 if all you do is remove Barry Bonds. He had 872 walks over that time period. At any rate, I think the higher OBP is a leftover from the steroid era. Pitchers were afraid to give guys anything to hit.

[pacopete4]

Our starting shortstop carries a career .301 OBP and our starting second basemen has a career .318... I think Carter will fit in fine. At least he'll stroke one to the seats often and set off some fireworks.

 

Walsh will supplant Scooter and get on base at a .400 clip

 

Pair that with Villar getting on base 35% of the time and we might have something cooking!

[brewcrewdue80]

2.5mil or 3mil whatever it may be is cheap overall for 30+HRs and a .750+OPS. You do understand he's a 30+HR bat being moved into a more hitter friendly ballpark. Wouldn't surprise if he got to a 40HR pace.

 

For his price tag and not being signed leaves the impression of not a big trade value. His value to me comes only when a Playoff type team suffers a 1b of theirs injury through the rest of the season and that happening before the trade deadline. I just hope I get to watch him at .220 on the season and chase 40HRs by the end of the season. It'll be something to keep attention watching games in August/September. If somehow Arcia or Phillips or say Hader aren't called up.

[Outlander]

Is Miller Park really more hitter friendly than Houston for right handed hitters?

[MrTPlush]

Is Miller Park really more hitter friendly than Houston for right handed hitters?

 

Hmmm...probably not so much because I bet he is a moonshot type guy and not so much line drive. However the short porch in RF will gain some opposite field shots for him.

[LouisEly]

And the 2011 Brewers won 96 games with 2 LH bats. His arguments get goofier by the day.

Well, no, not really - Kotsay, Counsell, and Kottaras got a fair number of ABs and starts against tough RHP. They had guys to platoon.

 

Also, one of those two LH bats was at that time one of if not the most feared LH bat in the game and a guy you were already thinking about when he was in the hole, much less on-deck. He led the league in IBB - and by a wide margin - for a reason.

[homer]

And the 2011 Brewers won 96 games with 2 LH bats. His arguments get goofier by the day.

Well, no, not really - Kotsay, Counsell, and Kottaras got a fair number of ABs and starts against tough RHP. They had guys to platoon.

 

Also, one of those two LH bats was at that time one of if not the most feared LH bat in the game and a guy you were already thinking about when he was in the hole, much less on-deck. He led the league in IBB - and by a wide margin - for a reason.

 

Because Casey McGehee was hitting behind him?

[Boomer5]

Have you seen Carters stats? Does it really matter whether he hits L or R?

 

I think the only thing that mattered in the Brewer FO with his signing is he plays 1B and was willing to sign for $2.5M.

[Eye Black]

One thing I did not take into account above is league average OBP by position, and that is where Carter would be considered below average. This chart shows OBP by position, last year's OBP for first baseman in the NL was .349. It's lower (.340 OBP across MLB) if you factor in that AL first baseman, but still quite a bit above what Carter has produced over the past couple of seasons.

[LouisEly]

Because Casey McGehee was hitting behind him?

He didn't lead the league in IBB in 2010 when McGehee was hitting behind him, but he did lead the league in IBB in 2012 with DET when McGehee wasn't hitting behind him.

[TooLiveBrew]

There's no downside to this signing. Good move. Stearns is a beast.

Carter is an upgrade over Rogers and has some trade value if he has a decent start. Nothing but a positive turn of events.

Sums up my thoughts nicely. A budget signing with no downside & potentially valuable upside. Keep on keepin' on, young Mr. Stearns.

[WV Brew]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

[Bombers]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

He is coming from building a winner in the future. The Brewers have tried fielding a competitive team since 2005. It was time for them to hit the reset button. Many point to the re-build the cubs went through, but look at how they were built. Many, many, many trades. A few of top picks are playing on their team (Bryant, Schwerber, Baez) and they hit on a few int'l guys.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-roster-spt-0920-20150919-story.html

 

As a GM of a re-build, you need to continue to stock talent in the minors and continue to sign guys you can trade at the break. The more talent in the system, the better chance that when you get good you are able to fill most pieces of your team. Arcia and Phillips are on track to be playing in 2017. (I would guess both might be held back until May to save service time) ... What I don't understand is how people can knock Stearns when he has been GM for a few months. Give the guy a chance.

 

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-cubs-roster-spt-0920-20150919-story.html

[Noche]

Chris Carter: .784 OPS last year: .764 lifetime

Adam Lind: .820/.797

Jason Rogers: .808/.786

 

Can we stop please. This move was not made in isolation. It was necessitated by the trades of Lind and Rogers, which is NOT an upgrade. I guess everybody values the arms Stearns got in these trades more than I do. None of them seem to be game changers. All are years away if they ever make it which is doubtful. Lind and/or Rogers could just as easily been flipped during the year as Carter. I would say more so.

 

Generally, I look at the moves Stearns has made and I have to wonder where he is coming from. How are the Brewers going to compete at all during the Arcia/Phillips era? It looks like they will have black holes at 1B, 3B and C if Lucroy goes. He's even flipped prospects like Cy Sneed for Major League utility guys which is a real head scratcher to me. As well as getting rid of Rogers to bring in an older player. I just don't see how the Brewers are going to be competitive.

 

In one breath, you lament getting young A ball pitchers for aging veterans. Then the next you fret about losing Cy Sneed (A Ball) for a versatile youngster with upside at a premium position(s). I don't get it.

[The stache]

I've been thinking about this signing since it was announced a few days ago, and I'm really warming to it. The Brewers are poker players in 2016. We're in the tournament, but there's no realistic expectation to win the big prize this year. So, we're looking to acquire chips. If we can take Carter, flip him for a prospect that in any way improves our overall organizational talent, that's a win for us. Because while signing Carter doesn't help this team in the long run, acquiring young players that we can package in deals for long term pieces very much does.

 

Tom Tango's Marcels Projections on Baseball Reference shows that Carter should have a bit of a bounce back year in 2016. He projects a .221 AVG with 26 HR and 68 RBI, his slash line .311 OBP/.454 SLG/.765 OPS.

 

I'm good with that.