Morosi Predicts a July Khris Davis Trade

[Mass Haas]

Morosi:

 

Expect the Milwaukee Brewers to trade Khris Davis at the non-waiver trade deadline

[pacopete4]

And I predict that the sun will rise tomorrow.

[BallFour]

It is kind of risky because he is such a hot and cold hitter. The longer Cespedes, Gordon, and Upton aren't signed, Davis remains an unattractive option. Has to be a small market AL team out there that needs a LF/DH, right?

[brewcrewdue80]

Yep seems about right. I'm thinking Lucroy #4 Davis #5 in batting order. 90games of production could yield results making both of higher value. Davis' HR barrage in the 2nd half is going to be on GM minds of he's ordinary sub-avg first half. Puts it together for full year 30+hr potential and that would be the bat for the stretch. 5-7HRs he just is a Gerardo Parra type trade. Get 1player high floor low ceiling.

[JohnBriggs12]

Morosi is wrong when he says "Brewers are beginning a full rebuild". No, they are not "beginning" a full rebuild. Most of the top prospects including some impressive arms are within a year of the major leagues. What they don't have a lot of in their system are power bats. Davis is controllable for 3 more seasons beyond 2016 and won't reach his peak trade value by July. He'll be here a while, at least until they see what this team looks like with Arcia at SS, and Hader and Lopez in the rotation. That will be after 2017 at the earliest.

[SRB]

Why would we not trade him before the season starts? I don't see any possibility of him raising his value, only downside.

[3and2Fastball]

Why would we not trade him before the season starts? I don't see any possibility of him raising his value, only downside.

 

I agree. The potential for injury or a poor season are too high. I would expect that the Brewers would trade Davis shortly after Cespedes, Gordon & Upton are signed.

[trwi7]

Why would we not trade him before the season starts? I don't see any possibility of him raising his value, only downside.

 

I think the problem is that Upton, Cespedes and Gordon and to a lesser extent Parra are all still available. You could get Cespedes and Parra for only money while Upton and Gordon would only cost a draft pick.

 

Now if those guys sign within the next couple of weeks, I'd guess that Stearns makes Davis available.

[sheetskout]

Why would we not trade him before the season starts? I don't see any possibility of him raising his value, only downside.

Agree completely. Davis is playing near his ceiling right now. This was the best-case scenario when he was scouted coming up or close to it.

[MrTPlush]

Khris Davis could help his value immensely. Offense has been dry at recent deadlines and a big first half could put us in line to reap big benefits off a cheap and controlled power bat. Now whether Khris Davis can do that who knows. Some have said he is a slow starter, but every year can be different.

 

Khris Davis should be on the market now too just like any other Brewer, but as some have said the interest right now may not be there. Unless you are looking for costless option FA is still loaded. More likely he is traded midseason.

[superfly]

If we're going to trade him let's do it now. Blow it all up at once and get some kids in here to start playing together rather than trickle guys out during the season like Davis, Lucroy, etc. The risks outweigh the benefits IMO.

[Eye Black]

I would be happy for the Brewers to acquire some young talent in exchange for Khris Davis. Despite the team control and low cost, I am skeptical there is big haul out there for him even after the top FA outfielders sign. I have doubts that other teams are any more sold on him then we are in terms of long term sustainable value. I envision teams offering up a quantity over quality package for Davis. Still, I am going to remain hopeful that he may be able to net a solid prospect or two until proven otherwise. I am not sure when the best possible time to trade him would be, but sooner is probably better than the alternative.

[splitterpfj]

I still like the Rangers for Davis - they want a LF platoon partner for Josh Hamilton, and he could DH when he's not in the field.

[TooLiveBrew]

Khris Davis could help his value immensely. Offense has been dry at recent deadlines and a big first half could put us in line to reap big benefits off a cheap and controlled power bat. Now whether Khris Davis can do that who knows. Some have said he is a slow starter, but every year can be different.

No -- absolutely not. He's 28 & it's very clear that he's not going to improve notably. GMs & talent evaluators don't make small-sample assessments like fans assume they do & like fans themselves do. Just like a club that liked him wouldn't hesitate to trade for him if he had a bad month to start the season, a good month or two isn't going to change things. He can't change his value immensely in either direction at this point... and it can honestly only go down.

[Bnowell4evr]

The Angels might be an interesting trade partner for Khris Davis. They have a need in LF but are right up against the Luxary tax threshold. Trading for someone like Davis would prevent them from crossing that barrier while still addressing the situation. The problem is their farm system is depleted to say the least. Still there is some interesting names to toss around like Joe Gatto and Tyler Ward.

[Outlander]

Khris Davis could help his value immensely. Offense has been dry at recent deadlines and a big first half could put us in line to reap big benefits off a cheap and controlled power bat. Now whether Khris Davis can do that who knows. Some have said he is a slow starter, but every year can be different.

No -- absolutely not. He's 28 & it's very clear that he's not going to improve notably. GMs & talent evaluators don't make small-sample assessments like fans assume they do & like fans themselves do. Just like a club that liked him wouldn't hesitate to trade for him if he had a bad month to start the season, a good month or two isn't going to change things. He can't change his value immensely in either direction at this point... and it can honestly only go down.

Come on man, only a Sith deals with absolutes. Just silly, of course he could doesn't mean he will. If GMs don't care about small samples then there is nothing to worry about as the will still have right handed power when the trading deadline arrives and teams need it.

[MrTPlush]

Khris Davis could help his value immensely. Offense has been dry at recent deadlines and a big first half could put us in line to reap big benefits off a cheap and controlled power bat. Now whether Khris Davis can do that who knows. Some have said he is a slow starter, but every year can be different.

No -- absolutely not. He's 28 & it's very clear that he's not going to improve notably. GMs & talent evaluators don't make small-sample assessments like fans assume they do & like fans themselves do. Just like a club that liked him wouldn't hesitate to trade for him if he had a bad month to start the season, a good month or two isn't going to change things. He can't change his value immensely in either direction at this point... and it can honestly only go down.

 

The change in market alone could change his value immensely. So no, you are wrong. Not saying it will or won't happen...but it easily could.

[Roderick]

The Angels might be an interesting trade partner for Khris Davis. They have a need in LF but are right up against the Luxary tax threshold. Trading for someone like Davis would prevent them from crossing that barrier while still addressing the situation. The problem is their farm system is depleted to say the least. Still there is some interesting names to toss around like Joe Gatto and Tyler Ward.

 

I think that Stearns has shown that he is willing to go to the lower levels of the minors for our side of the deal, and if you are willing to do that, I think you can find the pieces to match up in a deal. Going lower also means less chance of running into overcrowding a position at the minors or pushing the 40 man roster.

[Roderick]

I think the problem is that Upton, Cespedes and Gordon and to a lesser extent Parra are all still available. You could get Cespedes and Parra for only money while Upton and Gordon would only cost a draft pick.

 

Now if those guys sign within the next couple of weeks, I'd guess that Stearns makes Davis available.

 

If you want to apples to apples -

 

Basically, you could assume you are signing Davis to a four year, non-guaranteed $15M free agent contract (just spitballing arby amounts).

 

Ignoring performance valuations for now, if Parra costs a four year, $30M guaranteed contract - how much is $15M savings worth in prospects? To some teams it is worth quite a bit (luxury tax/low spending), to others maybe not so much.

[JohnBriggs12]

Khris Davis could help his value immensely. Offense has been dry at recent deadlines and a big first half could put us in line to reap big benefits off a cheap and controlled power bat. Now whether Khris Davis can do that who knows. Some have said he is a slow starter, but every year can be different.

No -- absolutely not. He's 28 & it's very clear that he's not going to improve notably. GMs & talent evaluators don't make small-sample assessments like fans assume they do & like fans themselves do. Just like a club that liked him wouldn't hesitate to trade for him if he had a bad month to start the season, a good month or two isn't going to change things. He can't change his value immensely in either direction at this point... and it can honestly only go down.

 

He's hit one HR every 17 ABs in the major leagues. That's a premier power hitter over a substantial sample. The Pirates traded Bautista at age 27 and look what he's done. Same goes for Cincy giving up on Encarnacion and look at the kind of power he generates. It's not difficult at all to foresee Davis hitting 35 or even 40 HR the next few seasons assuming he gets full time AB's. Both Davis' BB rate and HR rate were up in 2015. To think he's not going to continue to improve is a stretch.

 

The jury is still out on Domingo Santana. I would absolutely not deal Davis until Santana proves he can make enough contact against major league pitching because besides him, there's really no power bat in the system that is any more than a longshot to be a major league regular.

 

Davis' Brewer career can overlap Arcia, Phillips and all the young arms currently in the high minors or already in the majors and not just for one year but multiple seasons. I'd love a 35 HR guy in my lineup along with the Arcias and Phillips and supporting a young staff. Deal away Davis and who's that guy?

[And That]

Davis drew a lot more walks in the minors than he ever has in a Brewers uniform, so in my opinion there is a fair amount of room there where he could realistically improve, even after last year's walk rate bump. I don't think it is out of the question that he could post a .340-.350 OBP if he hits .250. The question is whether other teams are optimistic or not about the chances of his plate discipline improving. If some are, he definitely has a market right now despite the presence of Upton, Cespedes, and Gordon. And his contract may make him a better value for a team than signing one of those guys, even if they had to give the Brewers a few good prospects.

 

Of course his market also depends on how much other teams value defense. That arm, oy vey.

[Point Beer Is Best]

It definitely seems like the "perfect" matchup would be a team that would prefer to keep Davis primarily as a DH, and then play LF when the team faces a lefty. Maximizes his upside (gets his bat into the lineup) and mitigates his weakness (defense).

 

Who most fits the bill there? Rangers? Angels?

[Mass Haas]

Written from a fantasy perspective, but an excellent analysis of Davis can be found here.

[JohnBriggs12]

Written from a fantasy perspective, but an excellent analysis of Davis can be found here.

 

Good analysis but again the assumption that Davis is "on the trading block" because one national pundit speculates he will be is utter nonsense. There seems to be this perception nationally that the Brewers rebuild is starting completely from scratch when the fact is their two best position player prospects and most of their better arms are within a year of the big leagues so national media types look at who is on their roster that would bring a return and assume that guy is on the block regardless of the fact in Davis' case, Brewers still have 4 years of control over him. Lind was on the block. K-Rod was on the block Gomez and Parra were on the block. None of those guys were controllable beyond 2016 so that was a safe assumption. They've indicated they'd listen to offers for Lucroy who's controllable through 2017, but he's not really "on the block" at this point. He may well be a year from now if as we suspect 2017 will be another transition year and they'll want something for him assuming he's not amenable to an extension. Now they may like Santana or Reed a lot more than I do and want to find room for them but it's just as likely they'll try and deal Braun before Davis especially if he's sitting on 20 HR at the All Star break. They could also trade either Reed for Santana to fill a void at another position. There's nothing wrong with going into years 3 and 4 of this rebuild with a proven 35-40 HR bat in the lineup or two if Braun's power returns full force.

[trwi7]

I wouldn't be surprised if every player on the Brewers was on the block. It makes no sense not to have every player on the block and with what Stearns has gotten back in trades, guys in the lower levels of the minors, it doesn't seem he thinks this is going to be a 1 or 2 year rebuild.