The Hypothetical Hot Start to 2016

[JohnBriggs12]

Starting out with 30 wins 20 losses is pretty much meaningless to me. Teams aren't going to be trading players at that time anyway. Hold out until the trade deadline and unless we are in division 1st place at that time we should trade away vets and call up rookies.

 

The only guys that matter are Lucroy and Garza however and I guess Braun in theory. I want them to trade Lucroy this off season, Garza at the deadline and I have no idea with Braun.

 

The only way they could conceivably start 30-20 is if they have the nerve to start the season with a rotation including 5 of these 6: Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Hader, and Lopez, add a major league bat (Alvarez or Morneau) to play 1B, and major league quality CF. Nelson has the stuff to certainly be ace-like over a 50 game stretch. Peralta would have to return to 2014 form and one of the kids would have to become a ROY candidate out of the box. Hader has the stuff to be that guy if they have the guts to move him up. In addition to that they'd need bounce backs from Lucroy and Gennett, continued power from Davis and Braun, and adequate play at 3B from some combo of Villar, Perez or Middlebrooks.

 

Now if they're sitting 30-20 with that young staff, do you sell off veterans who are providing offense, especially ones you control in 2017 also? Maybe you sell off the CF you've picked up to be a stopgap, and sell off Segura to make room for Arcia, but those are moves that could improve your chances not diminish them.

 

They need to eat Garza's contract which was a massive mistake by the previous regime. Even if he pitches to his 2014 form, his trade value will not recover to the level where the return would be of any impact. Yeah they could save a few bucks, but really the payroll situation is fine so they can easily eat some dead money.

[clancyphile]

Starting out with 30 wins 20 losses is pretty much meaningless to me. Teams aren't going to be trading players at that time anyway. Hold out until the trade deadline and unless we are in division 1st place at that time we should trade away vets and call up rookies.

 

The only guys that matter are Lucroy and Garza however and I guess Braun in theory. I want them to trade Lucroy this off season, Garza at the deadline and I have no idea with Braun.

 

The only way they could conceivably start 30-20 is if they have the nerve to start the season with a rotation including 5 of these 6: Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Hader, and Lopez, add a major league bat (Alvarez or Morneau) to play 1B, and major league quality CF. Nelson has the stuff to certainly be ace-like over a 50 game stretch. Peralta would have to return to 2014 form and one of the kids would have to become a ROY candidate out of the box. Hader has the stuff to be that guy if they have the guts to move him up. In addition to that they'd need bounce backs from Lucroy and Gennett, continued power from Davis and Braun, and adequate play at 3B from some combo of Villar, Perez or Middlebrooks.

 

Now if they're sitting 30-20 with that young staff, do you sell off veterans who are providing offense, especially ones you control in 2017 also? Maybe you sell off the CF you've picked up to be a stopgap, and sell off Segura to make room for Arcia, but those are moves that could improve your chances not diminish them.

 

They need to eat Garza's contract which was a massive mistake by the previous regime. Even if he pitches to his 2014 form, his trade value will not recover to the level where the return would be of any impact. Yeah they could save a few bucks, but really the payroll situation is fine so they can easily eat some dead money.

 

They could try to plug Santana into CF or 1B - thats another Davis-esque bat, I think.

[monty57]

Starting out with 30 wins 20 losses is pretty much meaningless to me. Teams aren't going to be trading players at that time anyway. Hold out until the trade deadline and unless we are in division 1st place at that time we should trade away vets and call up rookies.

 

The only guys that matter are Lucroy and Garza however and I guess Braun in theory. I want them to trade Lucroy this off season, Garza at the deadline and I have no idea with Braun.

 

The only way they could conceivably start 30-20 is if they have the nerve to start the season with a rotation including 5 of these 6: Nelson, Peralta, Jungmann, Davies, Hader, and Lopez, add a major league bat (Alvarez or Morneau) to play 1B, and major league quality CF. Nelson has the stuff to certainly be ace-like over a 50 game stretch. Peralta would have to return to 2014 form and one of the kids would have to become a ROY candidate out of the box. Hader has the stuff to be that guy if they have the guts to move him up. In addition to that they'd need bounce backs from Lucroy and Gennett, continued power from Davis and Braun, and adequate play at 3B from some combo of Villar, Perez or Middlebrooks.

 

Now if they're sitting 30-20 with that young staff, do you sell off veterans who are providing offense, especially ones you control in 2017 also? Maybe you sell off the CF you've picked up to be a stopgap, and sell off Segura to make room for Arcia, but those are moves that could improve your chances not diminish them.

 

They need to eat Garza's contract which was a massive mistake by the previous regime. Even if he pitches to his 2014 form, his trade value will not recover to the level where the return would be of any impact. Yeah they could save a few bucks, but really the payroll situation is fine so they can easily eat some dead money.

 

Briggs, I think you're not that far off here. I don't expect this run, but as the team currently stands, they could pull off a hot start. I'd say that Garza is more likely to pitch to a sub-4 ERA than Hader to start the season, but that's not a big issue. Playing good for a month is a lot different than playing good for a season, so even if they were to pull off that hot start, Stearns should not veer from his current strategy.

 

To your idea of signing a veteran 1B and CF, I think 1B is possible, but they're likely going to stick with Broxton to see what they have in him until Phillips is ready. I also think they're going to trade Lucroy and one of Braun/Davis before the season starts, and if this happens, this whole thread is probably moot.

[MadScientist]

Option A really isn't an option, since teams don't buy early. Last year the Brewers were out of it and would have sold in May / June if anybody was buying. Likewise option C isn't an option because buying in early June makes no sense. Wait until the deadline. If they are in first at the deadline (and if that's the case does somebody have two more wishes coming) it will make the sell and rebuild a bit harder, but they'd better not buy much of anything, or at least not pay much of anything.

[Yaz]

If the Brewers keep making garbage moves this offseason I can't see a hot start in 2016. Has anyone started the over / under wins for 2016 thread yet? I am saying the over/under stands at 65 wins right now. This is depressing.

[QuevedosTongue]

So, between Lind, KRod, Parra, Aramis, etc. they'very gotten rid of about 6 WAR over last season. So, if everyone else plays the same that puts them at 100 losses. I fully expect Garza to be better than 2015 and improvements anywhere else put them into the 65 to70 win area. Unless Lucroy and Braun are dealt I expect them to finish around there.

[logan82]

They lost 94 games but they were not a 94 loss team. Their talent was close to .500 but they underplayed their talent. 68 wins is not the starting point that should be used.

[BallFour]

The issue is the National League teams have really drawn a line in the sand for trying to win or not.

 

Giants, DBacks, Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates, Cubs, Mets, and Nats, are trying to win.

 

While...

 

Rockies, Padres, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, Braves, and Phillies, are all not going anywhere.

 

Whereas the AL is way more competitive and a lot of the teams have chances to win their respective divisions.

 

I really do wonder the plan on when Arcia, Phillips, Hader, and Lopez become regulars as long as they keep progressing obviously. Because they are the first substantial wave of the rebuild.

[3and2Fastball]

They lost 94 games but they were not a 94 loss team. Their talent was close to .500 but they underplayed their talent. 68 wins is not the starting point that should be used.

 

 

That is a scary way of thinking. They were, quite literally, a 94 loss team. Is there a particular methodology you are using to say that they were a .500 team in terms of talent?

 

And of course we need to factor in that Gomez, Parra, Rogers, K-Rod, Lind & Fiers are all now gone off of the 2015 team too

[MrTPlush]

A .500 team, is that you Attanasio? Maybe wishful thinking prior to the season if old players played like they were young and every young players played to their potential.

 

That team was horrible and played like a 90+ loss team.

[ZBTMP]

Baseball Prospectus had the Brewers playoff odds at 27% prior to the season. Pittsburgh, for reference, was 28%.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/standings/probability.jsp

Fangraphs ZIPs had the Brewers @36 WAR, the Cubs @34WAR, and the Pirates @37WAR

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-milwaukee-brewers/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2015-zips-projections-pittsburgh-pirates/

I don't know about .500 team, but it was only a mistake to chase the non-zero playoff probability after the random events happened and realities changed.

[logan82]

Sure after lthe bad start the right move was to make trades. Even before the season started. It is not good to be happy with a .500 team.

[1992casey]

They lost 94 games but they were not a 94 loss team. Their talent was close to .500 but they underplayed their talent. 68 wins is not the starting point that should be used.

… Is there a particular methodology you are using to say that they were a .500 team in terms of talent? …

logan82, could you clue us in on the methodology you're using? I agree that we should be working with talent rather than the win-loss record in the standings. But my gut says that once the mid-season trades were made, we were probably closer to a 94 loss talent level than an 81 loss level.

 

What number of wins/losses should our starting point be, and how are you determining that?

[QuevedosTongue]

I guess if you think several players underplayed their abilities you would think they "aren't a 94 loss team." But who really did that? Garza certainly underperformed expectations. Lucroy was injured and didn't perform well. Other than those two I don't think anyone else either over- or underachieved to a large degree.

 

It's a mistake to think that players' peak performances are true expectations going forward. I think both Garza and Lucroy will be better than 2015, but I don't have a large degree of certainty about it.

 

If Milwaukee was to outperform expectations, it's going to come from improvement in the young players more than anything, but that's certainly not something you can predict.

[RobertR]

Lohse was certainly a lot worse than anyone projected him as being. Gomez was hurt too. And Peralta was hurt as well.

 

The wheels fell off last year but that terrible start was way below their talent level. Then they traded away talent down to that record.

[And That]

A big FWIW, but Fangraphs has the Brewers at a projected 25.4 WAR heading into next year, with the roster as currently constructed. That's about 73 wins. Worse than all but three teams.

[pacopete4]

A big FWIW, but Fangraphs has the Brewers at a projected 25.4 WAR heading into next year, with the roster as currently constructed. That's about 73 wins. Worse than all but three teams.

 

And if Lucroy, Braun, Davis, Garza are traded, ufffda, we'd be well into the low 60's for wins.

[jerichoholicninja]

I had previously posted that I didn't think it was a total impossibility for this (or any team) to play slightly over .500 ball for the first two months of the season (or any part of the season for that matter) but then I looked at the schedule. In April and May the Brewers play 3 vs SF, 3 vs Hou, 6 vs Stl, 3 vs Pit, 4 vs Min, 6 vs ChC, 3 vs LAA, and 3 vs NYM. The only saving grace for those first two months is, if you include the first week of June, there's 13 against Cincinnati and Philadelphia.

[reillymcshane]

Lucroy, Garza, Scooter, Peralta rebound to 2014 form, Braun continues to hit, Davis keeps mashing like the end of last year, Nelson and Jungmann play solid ball, Davies emerges as a decent #5, bullpen thrives, Cecchini emerges as a competent 3B, one or two young guys step up, people stay healthy.

 

That's how we do decent next year - if most of the above comes to pass. Of course, not all those wonderful things will happen - but they might. And they certainly might for a time frame of 50 games.

[joepepsi]

Lucroy and Scooter were pretty much in 2014 form from June to September last year. The team played .500 ball from June 1 to September 8. They went 7-18 the last 25 games in no small part due to sitting down LuCroy, Braun, Jimmy Nelson, and letting minor leaguers play. If the roster stays at its current setting, there's reason to believe they can play around .500 to start the year. Of course that shouldn't prevent them from considering deals at the deadline and continuing to aim for the future.

 

I don't believe this is a 5-6 year rebuild with season after season of 90+ losses. The rebuild of the system started a few years ago aiding by the 2015 deadline deals.

[umphrey]

Hypothetically if they were competitive in September who would pitch? Peralta and Nelson are the only ones with 170 inning experience so we have those 2 plus Garza (hopefully he takes his vacation in the summer) and Jungmann on his first full go around.

[MrTPlush]

If we somehow found ourselves competing to a serious degree I would imagine we would acquire a veteran arm at the deadline. If we somehow didn't look competitive at the deadline yet found ourselves competing in September then we just ride out with whatever we can patch up. Honestly if we find ourselves competing in September those guys are pitching well and you just throw inning limits out the window.

 

Though our 90% chance at a 87+ loss team and a <1% chance at a competitive team come September this is a bit ridiculous to talk about right now.(All number made up by me)

 

ADD: Between AAA and MLB Jungmann threw 180 innings so no concern there. Only real concern is the person in the #5 spot assuming inexperienced.

 

ADD #2: Even Davies threw 130 innings last year so as a #5 not a lot of concern over a full season of work. Would only throw 170 innings over a full season.

 

 

 

So moral of long post there isn't any real inning limit concerns.

[monty57]

The Brewers' chance of being competitive in September:

 

A) Wrigley falls down, so the Cubs have to forfeit all their home games.

 

B) Someone in the Astros' organization hacks into the Cardinals' network and replaces their MLB team with their AA team.

 

C) In an attempt to fill the stadium, Pittsburgh management DFA's their current players and re-signs all living members of the late 70's "We are family" team to increase their "coolness factor"

 

D) The Reds continue doing what they're doing.

 

If all of the above happen, I could see the Brewers having a chance at winning the division :-)

[brewcrewdue80]

I don't think a single expected regular outperformed at all last season. Jungmann outperformed but he wasn't an expected regular. Okay there was Parra until traded. The starting pitching was dreadful. Back end of the bullpen a plus. This was a much better than 94 loss team until they took the field. And Roenicke may have been a big part to blame. It's hard to fathom Segura or Gennett batting any worse. It's hard to fathom the Starting pitching being worse. Lohse is removed, Garza has to pitch better. Peralta. Who knows he's never had the peripherals to suggest a decent improvement but 190 IP at 4ERA is certainly better than last season. Yes we've removed some players but I believe KRod is easily replaced. Santana for Parra I'll call even. Carter is a dropoff from Lind. Considering ARam's aged performance, I doubt we'll be any worse off there. Fiers pretty much replaced by Davies. Outsiders call this a 100 loss team. We lost 94 last season w/o any current player on the team stepping up above expectations. Will this be a team that can start off hot? All starts with the SPs. Nelson, Garza, and Peralta being #2s/3s and the next 2 whomever it be solid 4s. The all could obviously pitch to #5s and winning 6games only in May is possible. We'll have an idea as Spring Training results what to expect. If Garza/Peralta are performing. If Davies isn't going to get shelled. And which one between Jungmann and Lopez deserves the final spot.

[AdvantageSchneider]

No offense but people who think the Brewers have a chance to be competitive next year also think the castaways had a chance to get off Gilligan's Island every episode.

 

Yes I am old.