The Hypothetical Hot Start to 2016

[FVBrewerFan]

I don't think .600 ball in May is some crazy, far-fetched possibility. They are fully capable of doing that in a 40 game stretch. The rotation could start the season lights-out, that's all it would take to go .600 for a little while.

 

It's rare to make many moves in May, so I think it's just move along and then be sellers at the trade deadline. Even if they're at .500 in August, I like to have faith that the front office would realize that's fool's gold. Hopefully Garza is decent enough to trade, and if Lucroy is still around you trade him too, maybe Peralta and others. In any case, it doesn't change anything. The needle is still firmly in the sellers range.

[AdvantageSchneider]

I don't think .600 ball in May is some crazy, far-fetched possibility. They are fully capable of doing that in a 40 game stretch. The rotation could start the season lights-out, that's all it would take to go .600 for a little while.

 

So in this scenario all the players on the other ML teams get busted for PEDs? All the players on all the teams are dirty except for the Brewers, kinda like the Pirates in the Mitchell report years ago? So the Brewers get to go against the other team's minor league players for 50-100 games? That's the only way I see them playing .600 ball in any 40 game stretch. .520 was their best stretch in any month last year.

 

The answer is A. Had 2014 not happened maybe they would make a run at it, knowing Mark A wants to contend every year. But I think 2014 will prevent the them for falling for fool's gold anytime soon.

[reillymcshane]

If I had to pick from the options listed, I'd take A. But my preferred approach would be to see the franchise operated about the same in strong & in lean years -- if/when the right deal comes along for a player, you take it.

 

^ This pretty much nails it.

 

It's a long term strategy and mentality that creates many chances to win over a long period of time. It's a hard philosophy to stick to, but it's our best chance to win a World Series.

[Boomer5]

I dont see any reasonable way the Brewers playing 600 ball over two months with this roster. But, if they did, it hardly matters. Stearns is an analytics guy so regression to the norm will be the words in the Brewer FO. This was a 94 loss team before trading off our closer and our 1B, and no one we acquired in those trades matters.

 

My concern is Phil, Atl, and possibly Cinn and some other dark horse team. Those teams are tanking just like we are, so its going to be a race to the bottom with them. We cant be picking 6-12 every year and expect to build the kind of farm system that will propel us to where we want to go in the next 3-10 years.

 

On a side note to the tanking thing; I had remembered Nieuwenhuis as being a brutally bad hitter. But when I looked at his stats, while bad, they werent nearly as bad as I had thought. Then I looked further and realized that of his 4 hrs that boosted his OPS to 645 last year, 3 of those were hit in ONE game. This is a really bad player and if he is to get any kind of ABs, this is all the proof you need this is a tank season.

[Boomer5]

If I had to pick from the options listed, I'd take A. But my preferred approach would be to see the franchise operated about the same in strong & in lean years -- if/when the right deal comes along for a player, you take it.

 

^ This pretty much nails it.

 

It's a long term strategy and mentality that creates many chances to win over a long period of time. It's a hard philosophy to stick to, but it's our best chance to win a World Series.

 

Definitely. This is the new era of baseball and the power of the draft/International pool money.

[3and2Fastball]

Hard to imagine such a hot start unless our pitching staff transforms their abilities. If Nelson/Peralta/Jungmann start pitching like 2015 Greinke, then it could happen. It is difficult enough to make that happen, and even more difficult considering that Miller Park is a launching pad

 

Wonder if Stearns has gone beyond considering moving the fences back to actually approaching Mark A about it. Kinda doubt he has but I would imagine he realizes how much more compatitive the Brewers could be, and how much easier the rebuild would be, if Miller Park was a pitcher's park.

[CheeseheadInQC]

My concern is Phil, Atl, and possibly Cinn and some other dark horse team. Those teams are tanking just like we are, so its going to be a race to the bottom with them. We cant be picking 6-12 every year and expect to build the kind of farm system that will propel us to where we want to go in the next 3-10 years.

 

On a side note to the tanking thing; I had remembered Nieuwenhuis as being a brutally bad hitter. But when I looked at his stats, while bad, they werent nearly as bad as I had thought. Then I looked further and realized that of his 4 hrs that boosted his OPS to 645 last year, 3 of those were hit in ONE game. This is a really bad player and if he is to get any kind of ABs, this is all the proof you need this is a tank season.

 

I'm still not sure why you think they are actively chasing losses rather than simply trying to maximize assets based off the fast that a playoff run with this team is highly unlikely. The three trades thus far with guys who were controlled past next season all brought back players likely to be on the big league roster. Is it just the fact that the Lind trade featured no one likely to be above Wisconsin? Because who knows the other offers, and the Mariners' system is not exactly brimming with close-to-the-big-leagues talent. As for Nieuwenhuis, he's likely a slightly above replacement level insurance policy in case Broxton falls on his face. They seem to actually want a center fielder to be the everyday center fielder.

 

As for the topic, I have a feeling they stand pat, namely because few trades happen that early. If Garza is pitching well and a contender has someone go down, sure. Otherwise, I think they wait for the regression to happen and then sell some time between the All-Star break and the deadline.

[bill hAll Star]

Hard to imagine such a hot start unless our pitching staff transforms their abilities. If Nelson/Peralta/Jungmann start pitching like 2015 Greinke, then it could happen. It is difficult enough to make that happen, and even more difficult considering that Miller Park is a launching pad

 

Wonder if Stearns has gone beyond considering moving the fences back to actually approaching Mark A about it. Kinda doubt he has but I would imagine he realizes how much more compatitive the Brewers could be, and how much easier the rebuild would be, if Miller Park was a pitcher's park.

 

I get the idea of building your team around what your ballpark is like and that being advantage - especially going forward for the Brewers...but what would that do for the 2016 Brewers?

 

Braun and Davis would be terrible guys to trot out for this strategy. Segura and Scooter's decent power would be minimized. I think whatever gains there are for pitchers would be washed out by marginal losses from Lucroy and others.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm still not sure why you think they are actively chasing losses rather than simply trying to maximize assets based off the fast that a playoff run with this team is highly unlikely. The three trades thus far with guys who were controlled past next season all brought back players likely to be on the big league roster.

 

Most of the trades for MLB guys are either stopgap throw-ins of salary dumps (Pina), low-ceiling AAAA for low-ceiling AAAA (Flores) trades, or buy-low MLB guys (Cecchini, Villar) that we have room for on our roster but didn't have room on the other team's roster.

[MrTPlush]

There is nowhere to move the fences back. Only place you could maybe do it is if you chopped off that party area in RF, but that is about it. That would also mean losing a lot of money a year for a questionable gain.

[3and2Fastball]

There is nowhere to move the fences back. Only place you could maybe do it is if you chopped off that party area in RF.

 

The "Prince Fielder hit 50 Bombs Deck"?

 

You could take out the bullpens and move the fences way back, rebuilding the bleachers for new bullpens. It would cost a lot of money.

 

Not too many teams have won the World Series in hitters parks in the last 20 years. The only ones I can think of are the Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees, all of whom have huge money for pitching.

[Boomer5]

My concern is Phil, Atl, and possibly Cinn and some other dark horse team. Those teams are tanking just like we are, so its going to be a race to the bottom with them. We cant be picking 6-12 every year and expect to build the kind of farm system that will propel us to where we want to go in the next 3-10 years.

 

On a side note to the tanking thing; I had remembered Nieuwenhuis as being a brutally bad hitter. But when I looked at his stats, while bad, they werent nearly as bad as I had thought. Then I looked further and realized that of his 4 hrs that boosted his OPS to 645 last year, 3 of those were hit in ONE game. This is a really bad player and if he is to get any kind of ABs, this is all the proof you need this is a tank season.

 

I'm still not sure why you think they are actively chasing losses rather than simply trying to maximize assets based off the fast that a playoff run with this team is highly unlikely. The three trades thus far with guys who were controlled past next season all brought back players likely to be on the big league roster. Is it just the fact that the Lind trade featured no one likely to be above Wisconsin? Because who knows the other offers, and the Mariners' system is not exactly brimming with close-to-the-big-leagues talent. As for Nieuwenhuis, he's likely a slightly above replacement level insurance policy in case Broxton falls on his face. They seem to actually want a center fielder to be the everyday center fielder.

 

As for the topic, I have a feeling they stand pat, namely because few trades happen that early. If Garza is pitching well and a contender has someone go down, sure. Otherwise, I think they wait for the regression to happen and then sell some time between the All-Star break and the deadline.

 

IF this offseason is Stearns idea of going for an improved MLB roster, I would be very concerned about him. These are players the 2002 Brewer teams would laugh at. As it is, I think by anyones definition, he is bringing in expansion level players knowing they will be bad and they will be cheap. If that isnt going for the first pick in the draft I dont know what is.

 

Baseball has changed. The ways of building a team have gone from big FA signings to gathering as much high draft picks and associated bonus pool money as possible. That is what built the Cubs and Astros, which is NOT coincidently Stearns' former employer. He is very clearly following the Astros model. Why would he be hired in the first place if not to follow that template? He is a young guy with zero track record except for how to build a team with very high draft picks.

 

This team will not be playing 600 baseball through May, as this was a 94 loss team for a reason. But if that happens, Stearns will stay the course because an 80-85 win 2016 team wont go the playoffs and does nothing to help the 2019++ Brewers.

[CheeseheadInQC]

IF this offseason is Stearns idea of going for an improved MLB roster, I would be very concerned about him. These are players the 2002 Brewer teams would laugh at. As it is, I think by anyones definition, he is bringing in expansion level players knowing they will be bad and they will be cheap. If that isnt going for the first pick in the draft I dont know what is.

 

Baseball has changed. The ways of building a team have gone from big FA signings to gathering as much high draft picks and associated bonus pool money as possible. That is what built the Cubs and Astros, which is NOT coincidently Stearns' former employer. He is very clearly following the Astros model. Why would he be hired in the first place if not to follow that template? He is a young guy with zero track record except for how to build a team with very high draft picks.

 

This team will not be playing 600 baseball through May, as this was a 94 loss team for a reason. But if that happens, Stearns will stay the course because an 80-85 win 2016 team wont go the playoffs and does nothing to help the 2019++ Brewers.

 

Perhaps I didn't state my point as as clearly as I wanted to. Basically I'm saying there is a difference between not chasing wins and chasing losses. Getting worse is a likely outcome of trying to maximize long-term value under the former, especially for a small market team like the Brewers, but it is not the goal. I don't look at the trades being made and think the team has a goal of getting worse next year. I look at the trades being made and think the team doesn't view next year's record as a goal either positively or negatively. It will be what it will be, and they'll keep trying to build a long term talent base regardless.

[3and2Fastball]

Some of the players Stearns is bringing in (Broxton & Villar in particular) have the potential to be contributors in 2018/2019. It is not inconceivable for those 2 to make dramatic steps forward in 2016 along with revitalized seasons from Braun, Segura, Lucroy & Gennett. Say all that happens and Davis continues developing, the Crew could have a strong offense. Still doesn't help the pitching though....

 

The Brewers as currently constituted could be an 85 win team if everything goes right. That is a lot of "if's" though. Another "if", if they trade off Lucroy/Braun/Davis, could clinch a 100 loss season

[FVBrewerFan]

Wonder if Stearns has gone beyond considering moving the fences back to actually approaching Mark A about it. Kinda doubt he has but I would imagine he realizes how much more compatitive the Brewers could be, and how much easier the rebuild would be, if Miller Park was a pitcher's park.

 

I've been beating that drum for years. Could it be done? Yes. Would it be a huge project costing a ton of money? Not necessarily. It all depends on how big of a change is made. It wouldn't have to be just moving walls back, they could make walls higher in some places also. But even if it does have a big price tag, I think it's worth doing. Nothing behind the walls is structural, other that Friday's. There's space back there that can be re-configured without losing fan areas. You just have to get a little creative about it.

[MrTPlush]

There is nowhere to move the fences back. Only place you could maybe do it is if you chopped off that party area in RF.

 

The "Prince Fielder hit 50 Bombs Deck"?

 

You could take out the bullpens and move the fences way back, rebuilding the bleachers for new bullpens. It would cost a lot of money.

 

Not too many teams have won the World Series in hitters parks in the last 20 years. The only ones I can think of are the Phillies, Red Sox & Yankees, all of whom have huge money for pitching.

 

Removing the bullpens won't do much. You would be stuck with a strange configuration especially in RF unless you knock out some of the field level seats. Moving the bullpens would be a massive undertaking costing millions. You could raise the walls, but in RF that would take out the entire field level there and in LF you will axe another Miller Park attraction along with the patio in RF.

 

Sure you could do all of this, but is that really worth the price tag? All of that work would cost $50mil? $100mil? More? It really doesn't seem that feasible. More like a pipe dream with no clear gain, but a lot of guaranteed negatives.

[jerichoholicninja]

How exactly would moving the fences back help the team? It's not going to make much of a difference for offense since moving RF in didn't make much of a difference. And if you're thinking that turning Miller Park in to an extreme pitchers park is going to lure free agent pitchers, ask the Padres how that's worked out for them.

[bill hAll Star]

Can somebody explain to me what the major advantage the team would have if they moved the fences back? I get the idea of a defense-first team with contact hitters faring better in more cavernous fields, but I can't imagine it paying off at all next year, if at all.

[FVBrewerFan]

Who cares if it pays off next year? Expanding the park is for when this team is ready to make a run again. And I have no idea, but I wouldn't think it would cost $50MM-$100MM. I think it all depends on how far you go with changing the dimensions. Why do it? Generally speaking, WS teams come from pitchers parks.

[TooLiveBrew]

There is nowhere to move the fences back. Only place you could maybe do it is if you chopped off that party area in RF.

 

The "Prince Fielder hit 50 Bombs Deck"?

Your post got me curious, so I went to HitTrackerOnline.com. Here's his spray chart from 2007, with the Miller Park outfield wall overlaid:

 

http://i.imgur.com/Gg1kaHH.jpg

 

Looks like only about 3 or so could've been courtesy of the right field area/ATI Club (& any of those could've come in other ballparks as well... I didn't dig that deep). In fact, he led the league in no-doubters in 2007 with 16. I just didn't remember Prince getting lucky with where he played that season -- his avg distance per HR was 6th in MLB. It was truly a season for the ages.

[MrTPlush]

Maybe when he said it he was referring to the Dew Deck? That was more like Fielder territory.

[And That]

Not spending revenues would turn it into profit, which would be taxable. As an LLC, the taxes probably pass through to the owners, so they would probably take dividends to at least cover their tax liability, so a good portion would not be able to be spent for the future. But, whatever remains could be held in an account owned by the LLC and spent in future years if that is what the ownership group chose to do. Just don't expect $12M not spent this year to equal $12M more spent in the future. Remember, Attanasio is a New Yorker living in California, so he could have over 50% of his income eaten up by taxes. This is why most teams don't look to make a big profit each year (they just don't want to go negative). They'd rather just build the value of the franchise, so when it is eventually sold it will be capped out at the much lower long-term capital gains rates.

This is exactly right. If they don't spend money on salaries this year, it does not mean that cash will be available in the club's bank account for spending later, per se.

 

In years when the team needs extra cash due to a payroll bump, the owners can/do make contributions to the team to increase their equity stake in the club. In years like 2016 when it looks like they will have more cash than they need, they'll make distributions to the owners (reducing their equity, offset by any revenue) to cover taxes as monty mentions above. Baseball/LLC budgets are generally very much a year to year thing that try to be as lean on cash as is prudent. They usually won't build a huge cash stake in the LLC to fund post-current year expenses.

 

As my boss says, "better the money in my bank account than the corporation's bank account." If the club needs the money later, they'll ask the owners for it. You have to remember that Mark Attanasio (and the rest of the owners), and the Milwaukee Brewers Baseball Club are two very different legal entities whose finances do not in any way mirror each other's.

[monty57]

As my boss says, "better the money in my bank account than the corporation's bank account."

 

There's also the "LL" part of the LLC. If the money is in the LLC account, and the company gets sued, that money is on the table. If it's in the owner's accounts, it's much harder to get. As a general rule, try to keep enough in the company account to cover expenses with a little left over, but don't keep too much there.

 

Before people get upset about the owners sticking it to the fans, I think a good portion of the excess revenues will be put into player acquisition and development, and not just taken out and put into owners' pockets. That can go down in the "reinvesting into the future" category. As long as it's an expense, it's not profit, so to the IRS paying to pick up an international player counts the same as paying someone on the MLB payroll (these are the "loopholes" politicians like to harp on, things like paying your employees that keep effective tax rates down). These all add up, and in my opinion expenses for the future are at least as important to the franchise as what they pay their MLB players... t's just that the number everyone will see is the team payroll, which is only part of the picture, and that will get some people upset.

[Ennder]

15 of the last 25 World Series were won by teams in hitters parks. STL and SF being dominant recently doesn't really suggest you have to be a pitchers park to win.

[umphrey]

Starting out with 30 wins 20 losses is pretty much meaningless to me. Teams aren't going to be trading players at that time anyway. Hold out until the trade deadline and unless we are in division 1st place at that time we should trade away vets and call up rookies.

 

The only guys that matter are Lucroy and Garza however and I guess Braun in theory. I want them to trade Lucroy this off season, Garza at the deadline and I have no idea with Braun.