Top Summer Talent for 2007 Draft

[Mass Haas]

Um, yeah, your point being?

 

Thanks while I blush...

[colbyjack]

I found this story on Michael Burgess, who I singled out as a seemingly good fit for Jack Z. and co. in my draft recap/draft preview story, at SI.com:

 

sportsillustrated.cnn.com...index.html

 

http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2006/writers/dave_krider/08/01/krider.notebook/t1_burgess.jpg

 

Also, doing more digging on the draft it seems that towering NC State RHP Andrew Brackman and prep SS Justin Jackson are Boras advisees. Wieters has been rumored to be one as well, but I have never seen that confirmed.

[GagneCY03]

So if Jackson falls to #22 because of bonus demands, would Logan White attempt to sign another Boras client?

[colbyjack]

I can't tell you that Gagne. You would know better than I would. Prep Boras clients are typically harder to sign, and often take the college route. Mark Pawelek is the only prep Boras client that has signed out of high school in recent years that I know of.

[GagneCY03]

I doubt he would. The only reason he took Hochevar was because he'd drafted him 3 years earlier. Besides, I dont honestly think JJ will last that long.

 

And Brackman will probably go to the Cubs.

 

Also, what do you think of Burgess? Any recent draft prospects you'd compare him to?

[colbyjack]

In regards to power, I think Burgess is similar to Prince Fielder, but other than the fact that they both bat left-handed, that's where the comparison ends.

 

Burgess is a really interesting, toolsy prospect. He also has a cannon for an arm, and has been clocked in the mid-90s as a pitcher. However, he has no interest to pitch at the next level.

 

His swing at the Aflac game was mighty large, as he looked as though he was trying to crush everything that was pitched to him out of the ballpark like he did during the HR derby. He's a good overall athlete, although he's not particularly tall (like Fielder), but there aren't the conditioning issues there were with Fielder.

 

Burgess is kind of a unique player given his tool-set, and he probably profiles best in right field, as most prep outfielders pegged to go early are typically centerfielders. Travis Snider might be the closest I can think of given the power potential and natural hitting ability, although Burgess is a better natural athlete, which in my mind means he probably goes a few spots ahead of where Snider did a year ago, even in a stronger draft class.

[colbyjack]

I have received a couple of emails in response to my '06 draft recap/'07 draft preview story asking what players are most likely to be drafted by Jack Z. and company with the 7th overall pick next June. In that story I singled out Michael Burgess as a player that fits the mold of the type of player that Jack Z. typically targets. Here are the relating comments from that story:

 

Predicting who the Brewers will take is no easy task, especially this far in advance. One thing is for sure, until Jack Zduriencik selects a college pitcher in the first two rounds, something he has yet to do as scouting director of the Milwaukee Brewers (since 2000), I'll look elsewhere. If the team is looking to address an organizational need like when they took Ryan Braun in 2005, a catcher might be the way to go, especially since next year's draft looks particularly strong at the position.

 

While Zduriencik hasn't taken a college pitcher in the first two rounds of the draft, he hasn't selected a high school pitcher in the first round two years in a row. That leads me to a bat, and given the love for tools I am going to single out Tampa's Michael Burgess, who not only has the power potential as a left-handed hitter to rival Prince Fielder's, but also has incredible arm strength that would make him a natural fit in right field.

 

It should also be noted that during the years the Brewers have picked in the top 10 (7th in 2002, 2nd in 2003, 5th in 2004 and 5th in 2005) only once did the Brewers take a player that was considered by scouting publications such as Baseball America to be ranked accordingly: Rickie Weeks in 2003. Fielder in '02, Rogers in '04 and Braun in '05 were all taken the highest of where they were to be selected, as the Brewers did not take players that were generally perceived as "falling" or worthy of the selection (such as Scott Kazmir in '02, Homer Bailey in '04 and Cameron Maybin in '05). I don't want to say that the Brewers have necessarily reached for Fielder, Rogers & Braun, since they all would have been taken around those slot values, but the Brewers certainly seem to identify and assess talent differently than other teams (money can play a big factor in this).

 

With that said, I decided to target a few players from both the high school and college ranks that could very well go in the first round based on their scouting reports at this point in time, but aren't necessarily considered top 10 picks at this point in time.

 

I'm only going to focus on hitters, because the Brewers haven't really shown any inclination to take a college arm in the first two rounds and I guess I don't see them taking a prep arm two years in a row, much less a third in the past four years.

 

From the prep side, Michael Burgess is a legitimate top 5-10 pick. His power is amazing, and his arm strength might be just as exciting as his power potential, although he hasn't shown much interest in pitching. That power comes mainly from quick hands and very good bat speed, bat speed that likely would be categorized in the same range as someone like Rickie Weeks (whose bat speed is compared to Gary Sheffield's). Burgess receives high grades for his overall baseball aptitude, and is a fine overall athlete despite not having the most ideal frame (he is listed at 5'11" and around 200 pounds). He profiles best in right field.

 

Jason Heyward is another exciting power prospect, who is athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, but could be a perennial Gold-Glover at first. He has long, strong limbs that creates natural extension, yet he has more of a gap-to-gap, line drive approach. Heyward would be similar to a left-handed hitting version of Derrek Lee.

 

Josh Vitters is arguably the top pure hitter from the prep ranks available for the '07 draft. Strong and quick hands and wrists allow him to turn on the best of fastballs, and his mechanics and approach are sound enough to allow him to wait for his pitch while crushing mistakes. He profiles best at either third base or left field at the next level.

 

Kentrail Davis defies what a natural baseball athlete should look like at 5'9", 200 pounds, but he shows an exciting blend of power & speed very similar to Kirby Puckett. The more scouts have seen Davis the more they like him, as you have to see him in person to realize just how dynamic of a player he is.

 

As for the college eligible prospects that fit the mold, we're able to look at their stats a little more closely. I'm going to throw out three college hitters that could very well be in the mix come next June. Keep in mind that the Brewers might find the urge to target a catcher early in next year's draft, and I have already profiled the most likely catchers earlier in this thread.

 

Todd Frazier-3B/OF-Rutgers

6'4", 215, bats/throws R/R

 

Freshman Year-Rutgers

.295/.392/.505, 220 AB, 9 HR, 19 SB

 

Summer of 2005-Cape Cod League

.270/.343/.480, 148 AB, 6 2B, 5 3B, 5 HR, 16:46 BB:K, 9 for 10 stolen base attempts, 9 Es

 

Sophomore Year-Rutgers

.366/.471/.599, 227 AB, 14 2B, 3 3B, 11 HR, 42:42 BB:K, 21 for 28 SBs, 16 Es

 

Summer of 2006-Team USA

.224/.280/.382, 76 AB, 1 2B, 1 3B, 3 HR, 6:21 BB:K, 4 for 5 SBs

 

Cumulative

.306/.398/.517, 671 AB, 21 2B*, 9 3B*, 28 HR, 99 BB, 53 stolen bases

 

*Some stats not complete due to lack of complete stats during his freshman year

 

Todd Frazier is the third of three Frazier brothers to play at Rutgers. Jeff Frazier was drafted in the third round by the Tigers a couple of years ago. Todd has the highest upside, with the best baseball frame and the best tools. His power potential was ranked the best on the Team USA squad, pretty high regard given the talent he played with, and Baseball America rated him the 10th best prospect on that team despite hitting only .224. He was named the 19th best prospect on the Cape the summer after his freshman year by leading the league in triples, tieing for 2nd in extra-base hits with 16 with Evan Longoria, and finishing second in slugging percentage (.480). So while he struggled with Team USA, he proved he can hit with a wood bat the previous summer, and he has made strides at the plate showing his adjustments to breaking balls

 

And he walks quite a bit despite the high number of strikeouts, and also has swiped quite a few bags. Given his athleticism, eye at the plate and speed, he reminds me of Matt Antonelli, a first-round pick from last June out of Wake Forest, but Frazier has loads more power potential.

 

His future defensive position may be in question. He currently plays SS, but no one expects him to stay there. He could move to third, but he played right field for Team USA, and that could be his future home as a pro. In right field he could profile in a very similar fashion to Jeff Francoeur, but with a lot more walks.

 

Julio Borbon-OF-Tennessee

6'1", 180, bats/throws L/L

 

Freshman Year-Tennessee

.350/.386/.450, 220 AB, 9 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 12:33 BB:K, 12-14 SBs, 5 Es

 

Summer of 2005-Cape Cod League

.205/.307/273, 88 AB, 2 2B, 2 3B, 9:16 BB:K, 4-6 SBs

 

Sophomore Year-Tennessee

.366/.412/.481, 235 AB, 14 2B, 5 3B, 1 HR, 19:15 BB:K, 19-25 SBs, 6 Es

 

Summer of 2006-Team USA

.345/.437/.526, 116 AB, 1 2B, 4 3B, 4 HR, 17:10 BB:K, 14-16 SBs

 

Cumulative

.335/.394/.451, 659 AB, 26 2B, 13 3B, 8 HR, 57:74 BB:K, 49-61 SB (80% success rate), 11 Es

 

Borbon really made a name for himself this summer playing for Team USA, prompting BA to name him the fourth best prospect on the squad (and the 3rd best of those available for the '07 draft). As you can probably tell by his numbers, Borbon profiles best as a leadoff hitting centerfielder, as he has very, very good speed and a contact bat (check out his low strikeout rate, even when he played on the Cape when he batted only .205). He could stand to walk more, but he started to do so more this past summer, where he also flashed his power potential, drawing the inevitable Johnny Damon comparisons. Jacoby Ellsbury, now one of the top prospects in the Red Sox' system, also received such comparisons, and Borbon and Ellsbury are very similar players.

 

Would the Brewers bother with a leadoff hitting centerfielder with the 7th overall pick? They're probably looking for a greater return, and may having Chad Green and Dave Krynzel in the back of their minds, but given Borbon's bat control I think he would fare better at the pro level than the other two did.

 

Kellen Kulbacki-OF-James Madison

5'11", 200, bats/throws L/L

 

Freshman Year-James Madison

.343/.392/.552, 210 AB, 18 2B, 1 3B, 8 HR, 16:30 BB:K, 7-15 SBs, 4 Es

 

Summer of 2005-Clark Griffith League

.367/.453/.620, 166 AB, 20 2B, 2 3B, 6 HR, 15:25 BB:K, 7-10 SBs

 

Sophomore Year-James Madison

.464/.568/.943, 194 AB, 17 2B, 2 3B, 24 HR, 30:32 BB:K, 13-18 SBs, 2 Es

 

Summer of 2006-Cape Cod League

.240/.314/.420, 150 AB, 6 2B, 7 HR, 14:35 BB:K, 5-7 SBs, 1 E

 

Cumulative

.360/.441/.646, 720 AB, 61 2B, 5 3B, 45 HR, 75:122 BB:K, 32-50 SBs, 7 Es

 

Kellen who you might ask? Kellen Kulbacki had a huge breakout season for James Madison last spring, and despite putting up big numbers in the Colonial Athletic Association, scouts that have seen him say that he has the tools to back up his gaudy offensive numbers. He led the entire nation in home runs (24), slugging (.943) and OPS (1.511), and was second in batting (to Mike Goetz, .464), and on-base percentage (again to Goetz, .568).

 

Many wanted to see Kulbacki replicate his success in the Cape Cod League to justify his standing as a potential first-round pick come June 2007. He struggled in the first half of the summer before exploding in the second half, and despite hitting 7 home runs on the Cape, scouts still walked away disappointed.

 

I see second half success adjusting to a wood bat as a positive sign, as his .420 slugging percentage on the Cape is nothing to sneeze at, and he proved he could hit with wood the summer before in the Clark-Griffith League on his way to being named the league's 3rd-best prospect by Baseball America after his freshman year in college.

 

So the guy with the funny name and the less-than-ideal athletic build will have plenty of doubters, and he will be hard-pressed to coming close to matching his '06 numbers, but he definitely put his name on the scouting map. He currently plays centerfield, but could play anywhere in the outfield, and is likely to draw some Brian Giles comparisons along the way.

 

That's a lot to digest, but in my estimation those are the hitters that at this point in time are most likely to be in the Brewers scouting plans next spring.

[pogokat]

Quote:

---

Jason Heyward is another exciting power prospect, who is athletic enough to handle a corner outfield spot, but could be a perennial Gold-Glover at first. He has long, strong limbs that creates natural extension, yet he has more of a gap-to-gap, line drive approach. Heyward would be similar to a left-handed hitting version of Derrek Lee.

---

 

does that mean his 6 foot 5 as well?

 

I'm intrigued by this guy...i like the athletic prospects who are developed as hitters...Fielder is awesome, but i still like the guy's who are 5 tool-ish prospects

[colbyjack]

Yes, he's listed as 6'4" some places, 6'5" others. All of the prep names I listed have a link to a Perfect Game profile if you want to learn more about their details, where they're from, etc. You may be particularly interested in Heyward since he's from McDonough, GA, not far from Atlanta.

[pogokat]

Sounds good to me...

 

Do you think he'd be a reach at 7? is he more of a middle first guy? Guess it's kinda tough to project that now...Cool that he's in Georgia though, because they'll hit the field in February

[colbyjack]

I profiled all of the above players because I think they all have the chance to position themselves to be candidates for the 7th overall pick next June. Burgess is the one player that is definitely a top 10 pick right now, and Heyward could very well be as well at this point in time. The others probably need to prove their worth in the spring to be taken that high, but it's not like they're that far away.

[Blazer25]

Jason Heyward = a young Dave Winfield.

 

I love the kid. He can really swing it.

[colbyjack]

Be sure to check out the pinned thread at the top of this forum, as I have officially released the top 30 draft eligible prospects for 2007 and have re-named this forum 2007 June Draft.

[GagneCY03]

Michael Main struggled in his first WWBA outing, allowing 2 ER on 3 Hits and 3 Walks in 2 IP while striking out 5. Vitters plays tonight against Main's Southeast Select team.

[colbyjack]

A name that has been rising up draft boards all summer long is LHP Jack McGeary. Here's his Perfect Game profile from last summer's National Showcase:

 

www.perfectgame.org/playe...eID=06natl

 

Not only was he one of the top prospects at the National Showcase, but he also was rated one of the top prospects at the East Coast Professional Showcase, the Area Code Games, and at the recently completed WWBA Jupiter Tournament.

 

He's 6'3", 200 pounds, with a very athletic frame. He receives the highest of marks for his smooth, repeatable mechanics and his ability to pitch. In particular, in a start in the WWBA tourney, McGeary walked the first two batters he faced and gave up a RBI double before settling down and striking out 13 batters over six innings of work. His fastball sat in the 88 range at Jupiter, but he was clocked as high as 92 at the PG National. His curveball, as described in his writeup as linked above, has drawn a few "David Wells-esque" comparisons, which is mighty high praise for his breaking ball, and his changeup gives him a very solid three-pitch repertoire. His curve and his control were rated the best as broken down by BA in their best tools from the WWBA event, and his control was rated the best among the Area Code Games participants.

 

You know I love lefties, and a lefty with his size, athleticism, makeup and stuff is sure to be high on my favorite lists between now and next June. He is one big notable omission in my current top-30 that won't be missed the next time I align my rankings.

 

He has committed to Stanford, which automatically makes him a tough sign if he's not taken high enough. He's a very smart young man, as his other recruiting stops included Virginia, Vanderbilt and Wake Forest.

[colbyjack]

Lefties, lefties, lefties. There are some interesting groupings going on with some left-handed hitters and pitchers. I am going to offer some numbers and breakdown two notable college left-handed hitters, two notable college left-handed starters, two notable college left-handed two-way players and three notable college left-handed relievers.

 

Left-handed hitters:

 

Beau Mills-3B/1B-Lewis Clark State (Idaho)

 

Summer of 2006, Alaskan Summer League

.270/.355/.493, 152 AB, 9 2B, 2 3B, 7 HR, 13:25 BB:K

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Fresno State

.355/.411/.675, 200 AB, 20 2B, 1 3B, 14 HR, 17:31 BB:K, 8 E

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League

.225/.314/.449, 89 AB, 6 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 15:23 BB:K, 10 E

 

Freshman year, 2005, Fresno State

.319/.424/.699, 216 AB, 12 2B, 2 3B, 22 HR, 31:41 BB:K, 19 E

 

Cumulative

.306/.392/.610, 657 AB, 47 2B, 6 3B, 47 HR, 76:120, 37 E*

 

* No error totals from summer of 2006 found

 

Mills has the most power from any college hitter, shown by his 47 career home runs while playing at Fresno State and during the summers in between. Poor grades made him academically ineligible late last spring, and he has since transferred to Lewis & Clark State in Idaho. His father is the bench coach for the Boston Red Sox, and he was drafted by the Red Sox in the late rounds out of high school in the 2004 draft.

 

Mills probably is more of a first baseman down the road given his lofty error totals from the hot corner, but his bat is his ticket anyway. For such a big slugger, his strikeout totals aren't even that gaudy, at least not in comparison to the next guy I am going to profile. Mills broke onto the scene quickly with a huge freshman year, and re-established himself this past summer after his academic problems by being named the Alaskan League's top prospect. His power potential could very well propel him into the top half of the first round.

 

Matt Mangini-3B-Oklahoma State

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

.310/.370/.394, 155 AB, 7 2B, 2 HR, 14:41 BB:K, 9 E

 

Sophomore year, 2006, NC State

.343/.409/.531, 239 AB, 16 2B, 4 3B, 7 HR, 27:54 BB:K, 16 E

 

Summer of 2005, Northwoods League

.342/.392/.519, 187 AB, 13 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 16:44 BB:K

 

Freshman year, 2005, NC State

.161/.257/.226, 31 AB, 1 3B, 3:11 BB:K

 

Cumulative

.325/.387/.487, 612 AB, 36 2B, 6 3B, 15 HR, 60:150 BB:K, 25 E*

 

* No error totals from summer of 2005 found

 

Mangini burst onto the scene during the summer of 2005, when he was named the Northwoods League's top prospect. A big, powerfully built third baseman, Mangini is more of a singles and doubles hitter at this point in time despite his larger frame. He led the Cape League in hitting this past summer, and got off to a tremendous start last spring for NC State.

 

Mangini has since transferred to Oklahoma State. While he has hit for a high average, he has struck out 150 times in 612 college at-bats. That's an extremely alarming total for a guy that doesn't hit for equally alarming power. His error totals are also rather high, at a move to first base could be in his future as well, although his power production will need to increase for that to happen. Still, never underestimate one's ability to hit, as developing power and honing his strike-zone discipline are certainly things Mangini can correct.

[colbyjack]

Left-handed Two-way Talents

 

Sean Doolittle-1B/LHP-Virginia

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

.239/.344/.327, 113 AB, 4 2B, 2 HR, 16:26 BB:K

 

0-0, 0.00 ERA, 1 game (in relief), 2 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 4K, 0 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Virginia

.324/.454/.458, 216 AB, 15 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 54:28 BB:K, 8 E

 

11-2, 2.38 ERA, 18 games (15 starts), 90.2 IP, 64 H, 108 K, 21 BB, 5 HR, .193 BAA

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League

.278/.278/.278, 18 AB, 0:3 BB:K, 1 E (did not pitch)

 

Freshman year, 2005, Virginia

.313/.391/.522, 224 AB, 12 2B, 1 3B, 11 HR, 25:28 BB:K, 5 E

 

3-2, 1.64 ERA, 22 games (1 start), 49.1 IP, 31 H, 66 K, 16 BB, 2 HR, .186 BAA

 

Cumulative

.301/.405/.452, 571 AB, 31 2B, 2 3B, 17 HR, 95:85 BB:K, 14 E*

 

14-4, 2.09 ERA, 41 games (16 starts), 142 IP, 95 H, 178 K, 37 BB, 7 HR

 

* No error totals from summer of 2006 found

 

Doolittle was named the ACC player of the year after his impressive performance as both a hitter and as a pitcher. He is polished in both regards, using a sweet swing from the left side of the plate, driving balls into the gaps, while commanding the strike zone well as a starter.

 

As a hitter, while his swing is more tailored to singles and doubles at this point in time, he has enough loft in his swing to hit more home runs as he matures. A smooth defender at first base, Doolittle is a similar player to first basemen like Lyle Overbay, John Olerud and Mark Grace. He has walked more than he has struck out during his college career, a very encouraging sign for future success.

 

As a pitcher, Doolittle commands a 88-91 fastball very well, mixing in a solid curveball and changeup. While his stuff doesn't suggest that he is a fireballer, he has missed quite a few bats so far during his college career, he is stingy giving up base hits, he doesn't walk many and he doesn't give up many home runs either. Like his hitting, these are all encouraging ratios for future success.

 

Where does his future lie? While many scouts prefer his ability as a pitcher over his ability as a hitter at this point in time, I prefer his sweet stroke and slick D' at first. His success next spring likely will determine where his future lies.

 

Joe Savery-1B/LHP-Rice

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Rice

.335/.442/.528, 254 AB, 20 2B, 1 3B, 9 HR, 50:45 BB:K ratio, 2 E

 

5-1, 2.76 ERA, 13 games (11 starts), 62 IP, 55 H, 62 K, 24 BB, 1 HR, .240 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Rice

.382/.471/.559, 204 AB, 17 2B, 2 3B, 5 HR, 35:35 BB:K, 4 E

 

8-5, 2.43 ERA, 19 games (17 starts), 2 CG, 118.2 IP, 104 H, 129 K, 37 BB, 4 HR, .235 BAA

 

Cumulative

.356/.454/.541, 458 AB, 163 H, 37 2B, 3 3B, 14 HR, 85:80 BB:K, 6 E

 

13-6, 2.54 ERA, 32 games (28 starts), 180.2 IP, 159 H, 191 K, 61 BB, 5 HR

 

Savery is a similar prospect to Doolittle in that he is very polished as both a hitter and as a pitcher. He started his career at Rice with a bang, being named the nation's freshman of the year.

 

At the plate he has a very sound approach, employing a sweet left-handed swing that offers a lot more power potential as he matures. Again like Doolittle, he is also very adept around the first base bag, and has enough athleticism to handle a move to a corner OF spot should a team prefer his bat to his stick. Again, it's nice to see him have more walks than strikeouts at the plate so far in his college career showing his plate discipline.

 

On the mound, while Savery is just as polished as Doolittle, Savery throws harder more consistently, as he sat in the 92 range as a freshman and throws a plus curveball and average changeup. He misses bats, allows fewer hits than innings pitched, has averaged a walk every three innings, and isn't prone to giving up the long ball.

 

I like Savery's future on the mound, but a tender shoulder kept him from playing summer ball and also restricted his use as a pitcher during his sophomore year. He isn't expected to start pitching again until January, and Rice pitchers are always subject to scrutiny.

[colbyjack]

Left-handed Starters

 

Nick Schmidt-LHP-Arkansas

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

2-1, 1.53 ERA, 6 games (5 starts), 29.1 IP, 18 H, 33 K, 9 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Arkansas

9-3, 3.01 ERA, 17 games (all starts), 1 CG, 116.2 IP, 90 H, 145 K, 50 BB, 6 HR, .211 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Arkansas

8-2, 2.80 ERA, 19 games (17 starts), 2 CG, 99.2 IP, 87 H, 89 K, 39 BB, 7 HR, .235 BAA

 

Cumulative

19-6, 2.75 ERA, 42 games (39 starts), 3 CG, 245.2 IP, 195 H, 267 K, 98 BB, 13 HR*

 

* No home runs against totals from summer of 2006 found

 

Schmidt, tabbed "no-hit Nick" for his early success to begin the spring of 2006 by not giving up a base hit, is a well built left-handed starter with pretty good stuff. At 6'5", 225 pounds he has the perfect build to complement his 88-92 fastball, solid slider and chanegeup.

 

As noted, he's stingy giving up base hits, and he misses quite a few bats. He has walked more batter than you would like to see, and gives up a few long balls, but you will take that from a lefty with his size and stuff. With another big spring Schmidt should be poised to be taken in the middle of the first round.

 

James Adkins-LHP-Tennessee

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Tennessee

8-6, 4.50 ERA 16 games (all starts), 2 CG, 106 IP, 96 H, 112 K, 42 BB, 6 HR, .238 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Tennessee

10-5, 3.32 ERA, 19 games (all starts), 3 CG, 127.1 IP, 107 H, 135 K, 51 BB, 8 HR, .229 BAA

 

Cumulative

18-11, 3.86 ERA, 35 games (all starts), 5 CG, 233.1 IP, 203 H, 247 K, 93 BB, 14 HR

 

Adkins had a huge freshman year, and actually was bumped up to the Volunteers' Friday starter ahead of Luke Hochevar. Like Schmidt, Adkins is built very well at 6'5" and about 215 pounds. He's not quite as stingy giving up base hits, and is a little susceptible to the long ball while walking a few more than you would like, but he does miss bats.

 

Adkins throws in the 88-91 range when healthy, as that velocity dipped last spring as he pitched with a sore shoulder. He took the summer off in hopes of rebuilding his arm strength for the spring of 2007. Adkins also throws a curveball, slider and changeup, giving him a very well-rounded repertoire. There is some wasted movement to his delivery, and given his shoulder problems he will need to shore up his mechanics to make sure he avoids serious injury while helping him maintain his velocity.

[colbyjack]

Left-handed Relievers

 

Daniel Moskos-LHP-Clemson

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

0-0, 0.96 ERA, 17 games (all in relief), 6 saves, 18.2 IP, 6 H, 31 K, 4 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Clemson

5-5, 2.52 ERA, 33 games (all in relief), 10 saves, 53.2 IP, 44 H, 54 K, 21 BB, 1 HR, .238 BAA

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League

3-4, 3.82 ERA, 15 games (4 starts), 1 save, 33 IP, 30 H, 31 K, 15 BB, 1 HR

 

Freshman year, 2005, Clemson

2-2, 5.40 ERA, 21 games (all in relief), 16.2 IP, 24 H, 15 K, 13 BB, 1 HR, .338 BAA

 

Cumulative

10-11, 3.02 ERA, 86 games (4 starts), 17 saves, 122 IP, 104 H, 131 K, 53 BB, 3 HR*

 

* No home runs against totals from summer of 2006 found

 

Moskos wowed scouts this past summer serving as Team USA's primary closer. His fastball was clocked as high as 96, and he regularly sat in the 94 range. During the spring his fastball typically sat in the 90-92 range, where it also is expected to sit should Clemson use Moskos as a starter next spring.

 

In addition to his heater, Moskos throws a deadly slider and a developing changeup that could give him 3 quality pitches, which is why the Tigers are considering using him as a starter. He has gotten signficantly better over the last year, although statistically he's not as dominant as you would like to see a short reliever be. He stands to be the best lefty from Clemson since Tyler Lumsden.

 

Cole St. Clair-LHP-Rice

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

4-0, 0.69 ERA, 13 games (all in relief), 3 saves, 26 IP, 10 H, 43 K, 8 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Rice

7-2, 1.82 ERA, 37 games (2 starts), 11 saves, 74.1 IP, 39 H, 100 K, 26 BB, 2 HR, .151 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Rice

2-0, 3.26 ERA, 32 games (all in relief), 47 IP, 35 H, 62 K, 12 BB, 3 HR, .208 BAA

 

Cumulative

13-2, 2.08 ERA, 82 games (2 starts), 16 saves, 147.1 IP, 84 H, 205 K, 46 BB, 5 HR*

 

* No home runs against totals from summer of 2006 found

 

St. Clair was the secondary closer for Team USA, pitching out of a bullpen that included Moskos as listed just above. While Moskos doesn't have the statistical dominance that you like to see from a short reliever, St. Clair does, as he has been nearly unhittable during his college career.

 

Several inches taller than Moskos, while offering a fairly herky-jerky delivery that creates a fair amount of deception, St. Clair commands a steady 90-94 fastball very well while mixing in a curveball and a developing changeup. Like Moskos, Rice may choose to use St. Clair as a starter next spring given his potential 3-pitch repertoire.

 

Brett Cecil-LHP-Maryland

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

1-0, 2.17 ERA, 19 games (all in relief), 11 saves, 29 IP, 18 H, 40 K, 9 BB, 2 HR

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Maryland

4-5, 4.78 ERA, 26 games (2 starts), 13 saves, 58.1 IP, 55 H, 54 K, 13 BB, 3 HR

 

Summer of 2005, Cal Ripken Sr. Collegiate League

4-4, 1.46 ERA, 56 IP, 61 K, 11 BB

 

Freshman year, 2005, Maryland

1-1, 3.77 ERA, 18 games (4 starts), 2 saves, 43 IP, 41 H, 40 K, 13 BB, 0 HR

 

Cumulative

10-10, 3.14 ERA, 63*/6*, 26 saves*, 186.1 IP, 114 H*, 195 K, 46 BB, 5 HR*

 

* Incomplete stats from summer of 2005 found

 

Cecil has drawn a few comparisons to David Wells given his intimidating, 6'2", 240 pound frame. While conditioning will always be something Cecil has to keep in check, it's far from a problem, although he does throw with an unconventional delivery, although that's less of an issue if he sticks in the bullpen.

 

Cecil was the hardest throwing southpaw on the Cape last summer, regularly registering in the 94 range while pitching consistently at 91-92. He also mixes in a very wicked, mid-80s slider that gives him a lethal one-two knockout punch from the closer's role.

[colbyjack]

Sticking with the theme of the lefties, below I will profile another college left-handed starter and a big lefty bat from Oklahoma State.

 

Ross Detwiler-LHP-Missouri State

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

2-0, 1.00 ERA, 5 games (2 starts), 18 IP, 8 H, 20 K, 7 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Missouri State

7-4, 2.81 ERA, 14 games (all starts), 2 CG, 93 IP, 73 H, 99 K, 47 BB, 4 HR, 1.29 WHIP

 

Freshman year, 2005, Missouri State

0-2, 6.35 ERA, 11 games (8 starts), 34 IP, 29 H, 35 K, 28 BB, 1 HR, 1.68 WHIP

 

Cumulative

9-6, 3.41 ERA, 30 games (24 starts), 145 IP, 110 H, 154 K, 82 BB

 

As you can tell by Detwiler's stats, he has no problems missing bats, and opposing batters have a hard time hitting his stuff (low-90s fastball, potentially dominant curve, developing changeup). He's built tall and lean, with plenty of room to add strength, but he is a relative work in progress despite turning heads while pitching for Team USA. As you can also tell by his stats, he walks too many batters, but he has improved in that area.

 

Most of his command and control problems are often attributed to his delivery, in which he has difficulty repeating his delivery on a consistent basis. The more he improves his mechanics the more he is expected to improve his fastball command, and hopefully the consistency of his curveball and changeup will follow. Detwiler is poised for a big spring.

 

Corey Brown-OF-Oklahoma State

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

.192/.305/.315, 130 AB, 8 2B, 1 3B, 2 HR, 17:57 BB:K, 13 for 13 in SB attempts, 2 E

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Oklahoma State

.347/.462/.644, 216 AB, 13 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 42:57 BB:K, 14 for 17 SB, 2 E

 

Freshman year, 2005, Oklahoma State

.360/.496/.691, 175 AB, 7 2B, 6 3B, 13 HR, 44:49 BB:K, 8 for 9 SB,

 

Cumulative

.313/.437/.578, 521 AB, 28 2B, 13 3B, 28 HR, 103:163 BB:K, 35 for 39 SB (90% success rate)

 

Brown doesn't get cheated at the plate, as he works the count extremely well, and takes his hacks, which leads to a very lofty walk and strikeout totals. He struggled initially hitting with a wood bat on the Cape last summer, but turned his season around to raise his batting average, even though it still was below the Mendoza line. His .305 OBP relative to his .192 batting average showed that he didn't lose his approach despite struggling.

 

Brown is a fine overall athlete, a left-handed hitter and thrower that is very similar to his favorite big-league player, Jim Edmonds. He has enough speed, and is a savvy baserunner, leading to a very good success rate in stolen base attempts. He is also a chiseled athlete at 6'2", 210 pounds. His big swing leads to plenty of extra-base hits, and he is overall a very exciting and productive ballplayer with the statistical success to back up his accomplishments.

 

Brown was named the Cape League's 16th best prospect last summer according to Perfect Game Crosschecker, and he was named the third-best prospect in the Florida State Collegiate Summer League (no stats available) the summer before by Baseball America. He was also named the Big 12 Freshman of the Year.

[colbyjack]

Since I brought up the idea of drafting a college closer, one of the more pronounced strengths in the 2007 draft, I thought I should present some of the candidates. I already profiles Daniel Moskos, Cole St. Clair and Brett Cecil just above. Below I will focus on their right-handed peers.

 

Joshua Fields-RHP-Georgia

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

0-1, 2.55 ERA, 16 games (all in relief), 13 saves, 17.2 IP, 10 H, 27 K, 5 BB, 2 HR

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Georgia

3-2, 1.80 ERA, 35 games (all in relief), 15 saves, 50 IP, 36 H, 56 K, 11 BB, 0 HR, .206 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Georgia

3-1, 7.00 ERA, 17 games (all in relief), 1 save, 27 IP, 26 H, 49 K, 12 BB, 1 HR, .250 BAA

 

Cumulative

6-4, 3.42 ERA, 68 games (all in relief), 29 saves, 94.2 IP, 72 H, 132 K, 28 BB, 3 HR

 

Fields' freshman year really skewed his career ERA, and if you look at his peripheral stats, its surprising that he gave up 21 ER when he gave up only 26 hits and 12 walks in his 27 innings of work, especially when you consider his 49 punchouts.

 

He led the Cape in saves last summer, and was named the fourth best prospect in the league according to both PG Crosschecker and Baseball America. Fields was a well-known two-way talent coming out of high school, and did bat a little his freshman year. His mid-90s heater and nasty mid-80s slider has quickly made his hitting career a distant memory, and with that stuff he also has exhibited rather good control, the best of those profile in this post. He's a smaller pitcher, generously listed at 6', but he is a very good overall athlete. With another big year at Georgia he could easily creep up into the first half of the June draft.

 

Andrew Carignan-RHP-North Carolina

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

0-3, 2.45 ERA, 12 games (all in relief), 3 saves, 18.1 IP, 16 H, 19 K, 10 BB, 0 HR

 

Sophomore year, 2006, North Carolina

2-3, 3.21 ERA, 32 games (all in relief), 15 saves, 33.2 IP, 18 H, 44 K, 15 BB, 1 HR, .151 BAA

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League

1-2, 1.44 ERA, 18 games (all in relief), 2 saves, 25 IP, 14 H, 32 K, 15 BB, 1 HR

 

Freshman year, 2005, North Carolina

0-0, 3.68 ERA, 17 games (all in relief), 22 IP, 20 H, 24 K, 16 BB, 0 HR, .233 BAA

 

Cumulative

3-8, 2.76 ERA, 79 games (all in relief), 20 saves, 98 IP, 68 H, 119 K, 56 BB, 2 HR

 

Carignan was named the Cape's 22nd best prospect by PG Crosschecker. A shorter righty at 5'11", Carignan makes up with that with a strong, sturdy frame and a power arsenal, even if that arsenal isn't as dynamic as the other members on this list. He pitches regularly in the low-90s, can touch the mid-90s, and mixes in a very nice, hard curveball. He has a no-nonsense delivery, and a very aggressive approach on the mound that makes him a perfect candidate to close at any level.

 

Carignan paced the ACC in saves last year for the CWS runner-up UNC Tar Heels, as he closed two more games while in Omaha. He has been effective from the moment he stepped on UNC's campus, and was a Cape All-Star last summer despite not receiving as many accolades as his closing peers.

 

Casey Weathers-RHP-Vanderbilt

 

Summer of 2006, Team USA

0-0, 2.16 ERA, 6 games (all in relief), 8.1 IP, 6 H, 16 K, 4 BB

 

Summer of 2006, Alaskan Summer League

1-0, 0.84 ERA, 18 games (all in relief), 8 saves, 21.1 IP, 6 H, 25 K, 6 BB

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Vanderbilt

1-1, 3.33 ERA, 21 games (all in relief), 3 saves, 27 IP, 23 H, 38 K, 16 BB, 2 HR, .228 BAA

 

Freshman year, 2005, Sacramento City College

1-2, 3.83 ERA, 42.1 IP, 36 K, 23 BB

 

Cumulative

3-3, 2.91 ERA, 45* games (all in relief), 11* saves, 99 IP, 35* H, 115 K, 49 BB

 

*Does not include totals from Sacramento City College due to incomplete statistics

 

A converted outfielder given his amazing raw arm strength, Weathers has very good natural athleticism from a compact, sturdy frame.

 

Weathers is similar to Eddie Kunz, profiled just below, in that he is somewhat of a one-pitch specialist. His specialty if a very hard fastball that lives in the mid-90s and has reportedly approached triple digits, with many expecting it to surpass that mark. His slider is a potential plus pitch, but he needs to find more consistency with it. That can be expected from a player that has only been pitching for two years now.

 

He was rated the top prospect in the Alaskan League by PG Crosschecker, as all six hits he allowed were singles and was virtually untouchable. He joined TUSA and his Head Coach at Vandy, Tim Corbin, mid-summer to fill a need in the National team's bullpen. Weathers is a senior, and turned down a sizable bonus from the Tigers last summer as a 24th-rounder.

 

Eddie Kunz-RHP-Oregon State

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

0-0, 1.71 ERA, 15 games (all in relief), 21 IP, 14 H, 22 K, 11 BB, 0 HR

 

Sophomore year, 2006, Oregon State

5-1, 3.61 ERA, 29 games (all in relief), 42.1 IP, 39 H, 30 K, 21 BB, 0 HR, .245 BAA

 

Summer of 2005, West Coast League

0-1, 4.38 ERA, 5 saves

 

Freshman year, 2005, Oregon State

2-0, 1.54 ERA, 13 games (all in relief), 11.2 IP, 7 H, 14 K, 7 BB, 1 HR, .171 BAA

 

Cumulative

7-1, 2.76 ERA, 57 games (all in relief), 75 IP, 60 H, 66 K, 39 BB, 1 HR

 

Cumulative stats do not include incomplete stats from summer of 2005.

 

Kunz is somewhat of a one-trick pony, with a deadly mid-90s sinker that is nearly impossible to drive. He induces groundballs like no other college pitcher, and that pitch alone may be the single best pitch available in the draft.

 

Unfortunately there isn't much else in Kunz, as he is still trying to be more consistent with his breaking ball, a slider that could be a plus pitch. He has had so much success with his fastball he may have overlooked developing the rest of his repertoire.

 

Kunz is a big boy at 6'5", 250 pounds, and was the set-up man a year ago for the College World Series Champion Oregon State Beavers.

 

Sam Demel-RHP-TCU

 

Summer of 2006, Cape Cod League

1-2, 1.73 ERA, 25 games (all in relief), 12 saves, 26 IP, 14 H, 38 K, 12 BB, 1 HR

 

Sophomore year, 2006, TCU

6-6, 4.08 ERA, 23 games (13 starts), 6 saves, 92.2 IP, 93 H, 100 K, 37 BB, 8 HR, .257 BAA

 

Summer of 2005, Cape Cod League

2-2, 4.46 ERA, 11 games (6 starts), 34.1 IP, 31 H, 45 K, 16 BB, 3 HR

 

Freshman year, 2005, TCU

5-5, 4.64 ERA, 20 games (12 starts), 1 CG, 1 save, 95 IP, 97 H, 100 K, 44 BB, 5 HR, .264 BAA

 

Cumulative

14-15, 4.10 ERA, 79 games (31 starts), 19 saves, 248 IP, 235 H, 283 K, 109 BB, 17 HR

 

Demel has shuffled between the rotation and the bullpen, at least up until his very successful stint with Team USA last summer. He was very well known in high school given his electric stuff: A very good low to mid-90s heater and a wicked curveball. His smaller stature generated a few comparisons to Roy Oswalt, but his size made some scouts a little leary about spending an early pick on him.

 

He has very good athleticism, and repeats his delivery well. He misses bats very well, but his control can struggle and he can be hit, and hit hard, as shown by the 17 collegiate home runs he has allowed. He was named the 13th best prospect on the Cape last summer according to PG Crosschecker.

[GagneCY03]

Pretty impressive crop of closers in this year's class. Do you project any of them switching to starting in the pros? I remember seeing Cole St Clair starting a game for Rice last year during the CWS and he looked pretty good.

[UWRyan428]

I would hope that we would spend our #1 on something else so who profiles to be around when we select in the third stanza?

[colbyjack]

Do you project any of them switching to starting in the pros?

 

Moskos and St. Clair are probably the most likely to be considered starters at the professional level. However both are just so good in the bullpen, that it would be hard to switch them, and Moskos' fastball drops from the 93-96 range as a reliever to the 88-92 range as a starter. That's not bad velocity for a starter at all, but it's hard not to let a lefty that can throw in the mid-90s just let it loose 3-4 times a week.

 

I would hope that we would spend our #1 on something else so who profiles to be around when we select in the third stanza?

 

Closers or other players? If you're asking about all of the players available, it's way too early to try and project who might be around in the third frame. That could be pretty much anyone. Although the extended sandwich round next year is going to push the Brewers second selection, their third round pick, closer to the 100th overall selection.

 

Of the closers, I think Carignan, Kunz and Weathers might be in that range, although Kunz and Weathers might get drafted earlier for their fastballs alone. Carignan doesn't have that one, light's out pitch, but he's just good and effective. Demel might be around in that range as well.

 

No one is going to allow a lefty with the kind of stuff Moskos, St. Clair and Cecil have to slip that far. The only way they're there is if they're hurt.