Brewers trade Jason Rogers to Pirates for more than you'd expect: CF Keon Broxton & RHP Trey Supak; scouting notes in thread [Latest: Rogers called up, post 243]

[monty57]

For those thinking that one of our OF will get moved to first base, here's a comment from Stearns in Adam McCalvy's write-up about this trade:

 

"Clearly, we need to add to our first-base depth, and we feel we will be able to do that over the coming weeks and months," Stearns said.

 

 

Now, that could mean that he'll add to depth by bringing in some guys to play the position in the minors, but I think that means he will pick up our opening day 1B later this offseason. I don't think we're moving an OF to 1B.

[DocLuna7]

For those thinking that one of our OF will get moved to first base, here's a comment from Stearns in Adam McCalvy's write-up about this trade:

 

"Clearly, we need to add to our first-base depth, and we feel we will be able to do that over the coming weeks and months," Stearns said.

 

 

Now, that could mean that he'll add to depth by bringing in some guys to play the position in the minors, but I think that means he will pick up our opening day 1B later this offseason. I don't think we're moving an OF to 1B.

 

Total speculation of course, but I would have to guess that Stearns has made an informal offer to Alvarez or Carter. It would also make sense that they are waiting to see if they can get a better offer somewhere and will let the market play out a bit since I doubt we offered more than a one year deal to either guy.

[Boomer5]

Its December 21st. Our 2016 starting 1b is irrelevant at this point.

 

They can roll with Alvarez anytime because he is such a horrendous fit for any NL team and even AL teams have looked elsewhere.

 

This is a 100 loss team with or without Alvarez or Carter, and you cant make an argument to me that Santana isnt one of our best 8 players. Find a position for him even at 1b - where he cant possibly be worse than Alvarez - and get him the ABs he needs to develop.

[Thurston Fluff]

Its December 21st. Our 2016 starting 1b is irrelevant at this point.

 

They can roll with Alvarez anytime because he is such a horrendous fit for any NL team and even AL teams have looked elsewhere.

 

This is a 100 loss team with or without Alvarez or Carter, and you cant make an argument to me that Santana isnt one of our best 8 players. Find a position for him even at 1b - where he cant possibly be worse than Alvarez - and get him the ABs he needs to develop.

 

When we aren't going to win many games anyway what does it matter if he is one of the 8 best players? I don't really see how learning to adjusting to major league pitching is best achieved by having him learn a new position at the same time? It could hurt his long term development which would be the worst possible outcome. To take that sort of risk on a team that isn't going anywhere seems counterproductive to me. If this team was a possible contender and he was the best option it would be one thing. In the position the Brewers are in there is just no justification for it. If they want to convert him the first long term then send him to AAA to do so.

[monty57]

Its December 21st. Our 2016 starting 1b is irrelevant at this point.

 

They can roll with Alvarez anytime because he is such a horrendous fit for any NL team and even AL teams have looked elsewhere.

 

This is a 100 loss team with or without Alvarez or Carter, and you cant make an argument to me that Santana isnt one of our best 8 players. Find a position for him even at 1b - where he cant possibly be worse than Alvarez - and get him the ABs he needs to develop.

 

When we aren't going to win many games anyway what does it matter if he is one of the 8 best players? I don't really see how learning to adjusting to major league pitching is best achieved by having him learn a new position at the same time? It could hurt his long term development which would be the worst possible outcome. To take that sort of risk on a team that isn't going anywhere seems counterproductive to me. If this team was a possible contender and he was the best option it would be one thing. In the position the Brewers are in there is just no justification for it. If they want to convert him the first long term then send him to AAA to do so.

 

Yeah, if I had to guess, I think Braun and/or Davis will be traded, opening a spot for Santana. However, if that is not the case, then it's not the end of the world if Santana starts the year in AAA. It would suck for him, but the team would maintain additional control of Santana, while he continues to develop his skills. Then, they would have him for additional time when the team is better and he is in his prime.

 

Again, I think he'll be on the team as a starting corner OF on opening day, but we shouldn't force him just to get him on the team. If that was our strategy, Arcia is probably better than Segura, and Phillips could be our opening day CF. Honestly, we probably should have left Santana in the minors this past season, and let Schafer be a warm body in CF until the offseason. Needing to prove to the fanbase that we got a MLB player back in the trade was a Melvin thing, and calling up a player and playing him out of position just to showcase him to the fans may not be the best for the long-term good of the team.

 

Stearns definitely doesn't mind not getting "MLB ready" talent back, doesn't want to play players out of position, and seems to value versatility and defense. Unless he sees Santana as our long-term answer at 1B (which hasn't been rumored), then I don't think he'll put him there just to get him on the field.

[1992casey]

If they want to convert him the first long term then send him to AAA to do so.

 

There's a lot of stuff that shouldn't be determined in spring training, but you can fiddle around with a position change and proceed based on how the player responds.

 

That said, I want Domingo in one of the corner outfield spots, preferably right. But if he can get a few more ABs by occasionally playing CF or maybe 1B, I can live with that.

[Thurston Fluff]

If they want to convert him the first long term then send him to AAA to do so.

 

There's a lot of stuff that shouldn't be determined in spring training, but you can fiddle around with a position change and proceed based on how the player responds.

 

That said, I want Domingo in one of the corner outfield spots, preferably right. But if he can get a few more ABs by occasionally playing CF or maybe 1B, I can live with that.

 

How much does spring training matters when pitchers are not game planning. For the better part of spring plenty of pitchers don't even throw all their pitchers. It's one thing to get a player in there a few times to see if they can play there occasionally but quite another to get them up to speed to be the everyday guy. My main concern is not to make the transition to the majors harder than it needs to be. For myself there has to be some compelling reason to complicate a player's first season in the majors. Like winning now or if they are out of options or something. I just don't see that in this situation.

[pacopete4]

Pirates optioned Jason Rogers to AAA; Keon Broxton is the Brewers Opening Day CF; don't forget Trey Supak from that deal. So far we may be winning that deal. But still too early.

[homer]

Pirates optioned Jason Rogers to AAA; Keon Broxton is the Brewers Opening Day CF; don't forget Trey Supak from that deal. So far we may be winning that deal. But still too early.

 

 

Wow.

[Boomer5]

Pirates optioned Jason Rogers to AAA; Keon Broxton is the Brewers Opening Day CF; don't forget Trey Supak from that deal. So far we may be winning that deal. But still too early.

 

Definately a good deal for Milwaukee.

[Ennder]

Jason Rogers is a fringe major league player at best. No way to know if we "won" this deal or not but the fact we got potential future players for a fringe player who had only a few years of control left makes this a win imo.

[Boomer5]

Jason Rogers is a fringe major league player at best. No way to know if we "won" this deal or not but the fact we got potential future players for a fringe player who had only a few years of control left makes this a win imo.

 

Well so far Broxton looks pretty fringe himself and Supak is at best a project. But Rogers was a 27 year old we didn't want, so getting two players for him is pretty nice.

[Ennder]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

[torts]

Pirates optioned Jason Rogers to AAA; Keon Broxton is the Brewers Opening Day CF; don't forget Trey Supak from that deal. So far we may be winning that deal. But still too early.

 

I mean, when they signed Jaso I think that was a sign that Rogers was not going to get much playing time in Pittsburgh

[pacopete4]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

 

 

How do you analyze a trade then if it is not after the fact?

[JohnBriggs12]

Everyone Stearns traded for made the opening day roster. That's no surprise. GM's, especially ones new on the job are going to want to give their deals the opportunity to work out. That the Bucs would deal Broxton for a piece they later decided they didn't need speaks volumes to me what they thought Broxton's future was. I personally thought Rogers showed enough in 2015 to get a shot with a rebuilding Brewers team that lacked viable first base options and I don't see Carter, who they signed subsequently as a big upgrade. But that's life for late round picks even if they perform well at the major league level. They simply aren't on other teams radar. I'm guessing Houston didn't spend a lot of time, if any, scouting Rogers at any point, either as a amateur or a minor leaguer. Stearns knew Carter. He didn't know Rogers all that well.

[Boomer5]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

 

 

How do you analyze a trade then if it is not after the fact?

 

I think you are taking his comments a tad too literally. We both know he meant immediately after the fact.

[pacopete4]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

 

 

How do you analyze a trade then if it is not after the fact?

 

I think you are taking his comments a tad too literally. We both know he meant immediately after the fact.

 

 

I'm not so sure. His comment wasn't "let's let this one play out." It was that he doesn't judge the trade because the players are in different organizations. It could mean a lot of things.

[Jenkins5]

With Broxton, it had more to do with them simply having nowhere for him. They are not going to trade McCutchen, Poloncio Or Marte to make room for him. 4th OFs are expandable. It speaks zero volume to me. Moreover, do you think the Pirates planned on Rogers busting and not being in there MLB plans? He simply didn't do enough. He is an awful defender everywhere on the field. Really he is a great bench bat/pinch hitter who can spot start here and there when needed. Really he is Lenny Harris.....

 

Carter's upside is far higher than Rogers and it is not like Rogers was some young buck, he is like 1-2 years younger than Carter is only. Carter very easily could launch 35-40 HRs and drive in 80-100. He will OBP at least .100 over his batting average as well. He will K more and won't hit more than .240-.250, but he walks at a good rate and hits for major power.

[umphrey]

It was a fine trade for both sides, I'm sure they were happy to get 1B depth with options and they didn't need Broxton. They probably wouldn't have made the trade if they had to put Rogers on their 25 man.

[CheeseheadInQC]

Was Rogers really that big of a disappointment? It seemed based on the stats as if his spring was more just an exaggeration of his strengths and deficiencies rather than out-and-out bad. It seemed the Pirates' first base depth had more to do with him being sent down than his performance did.

[danzig6767]

Everyone Stearns traded for made the opening day roster. That's no surprise. GM's, especially ones new on the job are going to want to give their deals the opportunity to work out. That the Bucs would deal Broxton for a piece they later decided they didn't need speaks volumes to me what they thought Broxton's future was. I personally thought Rogers showed enough in 2015 to get a shot with a rebuilding Brewers team that lacked viable first base options and I don't see Carter, who they signed subsequently as a big upgrade. But that's life for late round picks even if they perform well at the major league level. They simply aren't on other teams radar. I'm guessing Houston didn't spend a lot of time, if any, scouting Rogers at any point, either as a amateur or a minor leaguer. Stearns knew Carter. He didn't know Rogers all that well.

Stearns i'm certain talked with Melvin, Counsell, and others in the organization about Rogers before trading him. Plus, there had to be guys who Stearns brought in to fill his scouting staff who knew about Rogers given pretty much every organization has people who scout of all of the minors.

 

So this wasn't some situation where Stearns just took a look on a piece of paper at Rogers age, minor/major league numbers, and then after watching a few minutes of film decided, hey let's trade this Rogers guy because i don't know him as well as Carter. By that logic, how then would he be well versed enough on Broxton, along with the myriad of other players he brought in? And besides all of that, a different team could have ended up signing Carter before the Brewers did.

 

This trade was similar to many other moves Stearns made. He liked the long term potential more of Broxton who was a late bloomer compared to Rogers. Time will tell on how well Broxton develops. To me it was a very low risk move given the limitations of Rogers and there being at least some chance that Broxton does develop into a worthy everyday CF.

[Ennder]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

 

 

How do you analyze a trade then if it is not after the fact?

 

 

You stick with your original opinion and see if there are obvious factors that you missed and adjust accordingly. You can lose a trade statistically and not have it be a bad trade at the time it was made. It just isn't so simplistic as look at the stats 10 years later and you know if it was good or bad.

 

Sometimes a player is traded and it is completely career changing. There is no way to know if that would have happened had they stayed.

 

A great example is Cain. He was with the Royals for 5 years before he put up a good season. Who knows how that 5 years would have gone in the Brewers organization. 5 years is completely career changing. He is a Royals product at that point, not a Brewers product.

[pacopete4]

It certainly could turn into a wash where none of them are major league players. I don't like to judge trades after the fact though because once they are on a different organization their path to the majors completely changes. I'm sure if we trade guys to the Cardinals they will find a way to make some of them useful even if they would have been a non factor for other teams.

 

 

How do you analyze a trade then if it is not after the fact?

 

 

You stick with your original opinion and see if there are obvious factors that you missed and adjust accordingly. You can lose a trade statistically and not have it be a bad trade at the time it was made. It just isn't so simplistic as look at the stats 10 years later and you know if it was good or bad.

 

Sometimes a player is traded and it is completely career changing. There is no way to know if that would have happened had they stayed.

 

A great example is Cain. He was with the Royals for 5 years before he put up a good season. Who knows how that 5 years would have gone in the Brewers organization. 5 years is completely career changing. He is a Royals product at that point, not a Brewers product.

 

I can understand that viewpoint. Thanks for the explanation.

[djoctagone]

broxton's oh-fer performance to start the season reminded me of another player who was once a promising prospect: brad nelson.

 

in 2009, nelson went hitless in 21 at-bats (two-thirds were pinch-hit appearances) with 9 strikeouts. he was outrighted to the minor leagues on 13 may, refused the assignment, and became a free agent.

 

the regime was different then, and the short-term goals of the organization were different then.