Brewers trade Jason Rogers to Pirates for more than you'd expect: CF Keon Broxton & RHP Trey Supak; scouting notes in thread [Latest: Rogers called up, post 243]

[dacbrewers]

Ryan Braun is an absolute garbage RFer. I know that by advanced stats, TV, and watching him in person. He is not good at all. If you think he is you need to watch more closely. The only good plays I have ever seen him make are after pathetic routes and horrible reaction times that any average defender would have made with ease. The amount of balls he misses that turn into doubles or singles is quite sad.

 

I need to agree with everything you mention. Why should he try in the OF, he's getting paid anyway. Jogging to balls, wrong routes...teams consistently take extra bases on Davis and Braun. Want a winning team start with defense in the outfield...Look at KC.

[TooLiveBrew]

is Davis super mega bad?

 

Apparently. It sounds like it was tried briefly and that he was so obviously bad that a judgment could be made quickly.

He's right-handed, and about 5'10". Not sure why anyone in the org thought he might be a fit at 1B.

[LouisEly]

Just my $0.02:

 

1) I think Rogers is more highly valued by MLB GMs than most people on this board. At every level of the minors people doubted him... and he proved them wrong. I'll take 4-5 good years from a 28-year-old.

 

B) I'd take an entire team of 28-year-olds. Any player with a 2-handle in front of his age is young. Average age of the 2015 Royals hitters - 29.2, pitchers 30.0. 2014 Giants - 28.5 and 31.4. 2013 Red Sox - 29.8 and 30.1. 2011 Cardinals - 29.4 and 30.2. Probably not weighted based on PAs/Innings, but for every team the average age of pitchers is >30. Teams full of 26-year-olds don't win anything.

 

3) I think the rotation of Nelson, Garza, Peralta, Jungmann, and Davies/Pena/Cravy/Thornburg and the bullpen of Jeffress, Smith, Blazek, Knebel, Pena, Thornburg, Barrios, Goforth is going to be a lot better than people think. I think Davis isn't a fluke, Lucroy will return to form, and subsequently the Brewers will win more games than most people think. Definitely more than the Reds, Phillies, and Braves.

 

4) Speaking of Lucroy, it doesn't matter what position he plays, he doesn't have much trade value until he proves he has recovered from his concussion. He hasn't caught an inning since the concussion, and until he catches a couple hundred innings his trade value is as a first baseman. Extremely unlikely he gets moved this offseason.

[gregmag]

Khris Davis, despite being a defensive liability (ranked 25th among all LF's in overall WAR last year) is a legit bat. He ranked 11th among all LF's in wRC+ and 8th in wOBA (ahead of Justin Upton in both categories and ahead of Alex Gordon in wOBA). While it is possible he improves even more, I think now is the time to try to maximize the return on him, or perhaps more specifically after the signings of Cespedes, Upton & Gordon (when a 4th team is left looking for a LF)

 

Braun is NOT a liability in the OF. he can play LF or RF (he's better in LF clearly). i don't care what nerdy analytics you can dig up to support what you're saying - use your eyes as well (my eyes are what tells me Davis has the worst corner OF arm i'll ever see in my life). and Khris Davis is NOT a legit bat. he has legit power and literally nothing else. while his BB rate rose this past season in fewer ABs his K rate rose. he's proved at this level not to be a high OBP guy, not to have an understanding of the strike zone, not to hit line to line, not to hit for a solid avg, not a contact hitter and has not showed any consistency whatsoever. he's had 3 months over the past 2 seasons that have resulted in the majority of his power numbers (best tool). and that doesn't even include his avg at best defense with brutal arm. yes, you're correct that now is the time to move him especially after his final 2 months last year. but not because it's when you can maximize the return rather he's the opposite of what this team is becoming and because room needs to be made for Santana in RF.

 

Please, I beg people, stop relying on wOBA, WAR, etc. That's part of the evaluation process but too many people use it as the final say. There isn't 1 GM that would take Khris Davis over Alex Gordon. Davis also had a higher wOBA than Heyward too lol

You keep writing these posts where you wrongly insist that everyone here relies slavishly on analytics, insist that we should trust your eyes, and further insist that you know better about everything than everyone else does. Wrong, wrong, and wrong again. Stop. Please.

[RockCoCougars]

I wasn't a huge fan of Rogers, but I'm somewhat livid that he has been moved to seemingly open up a spot for Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez is just a brutal ballplayer, can't field a position and can't hit. Basically the second coming of Bob Hamelin. The only reason the Brewers are going to sign him is that he's the son in law of the bench coach.

[MrTPlush]

Darn it I missed that we signed Alvarez! What were the contract details?

 

Also a career 107 OPS+ is not too shabby.

[3and2Fastball]

It's funny, because I have used my eyes to see that Braun was a below average defensive outfielder, and thought maybe my eyes were deceiving me, but the metrics seem to back that up

[Thurston Fluff]

Khris Davis, despite being a defensive liability (ranked 25th among all LF's in overall WAR last year) is a legit bat. He ranked 11th among all LF's in wRC+ and 8th in wOBA (ahead of Justin Upton in both categories and ahead of Alex Gordon in wOBA). While it is possible he improves even more, I think now is the time to try to maximize the return on him, or perhaps more specifically after the signings of Cespedes, Upton & Gordon (when a 4th team is left looking for a LF)

 

Braun is NOT a liability in the OF. he can play LF or RF (he's better in LF clearly). i don't care what nerdy analytics you can dig up to support what you're saying - use your eyes as well (my eyes are what tells me Davis has the worst corner OF arm i'll ever see in my life). and Khris Davis is NOT a legit bat. he has legit power and literally nothing else. while his BB rate rose this past season in fewer ABs his K rate rose. he's proved at this level not to be a high OBP guy, not to have an understanding of the strike zone, not to hit line to line, not to hit for a solid avg, not a contact hitter and has not showed any consistency whatsoever. he's had 3 months over the past 2 seasons that have resulted in the majority of his power numbers (best tool). and that doesn't even include his avg at best defense with brutal arm. yes, you're correct that now is the time to move him especially after his final 2 months last year. but not because it's when you can maximize the return rather he's the opposite of what this team is becoming and because room needs to be made for Santana in RF.

 

Please, I beg people, stop relying on wOBA, WAR, etc. That's part of the evaluation process but too many people use it as the final say. There isn't 1 GM that would take Khris Davis over Alex Gordon. Davis also had a higher wOBA than Heyward too lol

 

Please, enlighten us on your scouting ability while watching FSWI.

 

Edit - everyone knows Khris Davis has a shoulder problem and can't throw. You are just becoming a broken record with your scorn for anyone using advance metrics. We all watch the Brewers, we see the same things you do, when evaluating trade pieces/proposals it doesn't hurt to use advance statistics. The fact that you point out your disdain for them in every.single.post. is tiresome. We get it.

 

In his defense, one season of defensive stats is not enough to base any argument on. I think sometimes people are against analytics because they get used wrong. Using one season of defensive WAR as the basis for saying someone is a defensive liability isn't accurate analytically. It may not be right to deny the value of statistical analysis but it shouldn't be wrong to question if they are being used correctly.

[homer]

If you have a problem with analytics that's fine but no need to call stats "nerdy" or that stats are for nerds. Conversely it's ok for people to think stats are overrated. Just different viewpoints. Disagree like adults, please.

[brewcrewdue80]

If there's so much hate for Alvarez, then wouldn't you hate Davis as well? Aren't we looking at the same kind of player? HRs, lack of defense.

[endaround]

If there's so much hate for Alvarez, then wouldn't you hate Davis as well? Aren't we looking at the same kind of player? HRs, lack of defense.

 

No we are not. Alvarez is nearly Braun at 3B bad at 1B. Alvarez has a career wRC+ of 106 and 114 last year. Davis has a career wRC+ of 119 and 121 last year. Davis is below average in LF but the amount of damage that does is minimal. Alvarez is terrible at 1B and that matters a bunch more.

[Point Beer Is Best]

If there's so much hate for Alvarez, then wouldn't you hate Davis as well? Aren't we looking at the same kind of player? HRs, lack of defense.

 

One of them is cheap for several years and can be moved on from at anytime without consequence, and may also be a significant trade chip. The other is Pedro Alvarez.

[GAME05]

Stearns probably came here with a long list of guys he thinks are way better than their numbers suggest; high-potential guys he could get for cheap. Maybe Broxton was one of those guys.

 

Who cares if we end up signing Alvarez? We're a 90-loss team that isn't going to be signing FA superstars yet, so it's not like Alvarez really represents any downgrade from somebody else we would have gotten. This trade only reinforces the notion that the MLB team is second priority to building MiLB strength, and ultimately that's what most of us wanted.

[brewcrewdue80]

Are Alvarez' numbers adjusting for park factor? Davis hits 3-5 less HRs if he batted there. Alvarez probably cranks 4-6more here.

[pacopete4]

Are Alvarez' numbers adjusting for park factor? Davis hits 3-5 less HRs if he batted there. Alvarez probably cranks 4-6more here.

 

 

He actually has a pretty poor OPS at Miller Park .692 (.188/.274/.419 in 47 games which is the second most he's played in a specific park). Obviously small sample size though.

[1992casey]

Are Alvarez' numbers adjusting for park factor?

 

OPS+ has been cited. That stat covers ballparks. It also adjusts to the league average for each season.

[SRB]

Davis is an average major-league corner OF. He's clearly a pretty poor defender, and his offense is extremely streaky. His bat is power over plate discipline (sub-.300 OBP two years ago), so he is more of a bottom-of-the-order hitter.

 

None of that militates against trading him, but what does is that we are in rebuilding mode and are not going to compete for a few seasons. Davis brings nothing to the franchise given the position we are in. He has no further upside and he's only going to start getting expensive. By the time we are competitive again he'll be a free agent or supplanted. There is 0% reason to start Davis over a prospect like Santana.

 

If Stearns has any common sense he will trade Davis this offseason to maximize his value.

[BallFour]

Pedro Alvarez would be great if he had any value to rebuild.....but he really doesn't have much to begin with. I think we are all getting swept into the Doug Melvin era of thinking, getting used to his transactions for over a decade can do that to you. Everyone was freaking out that they were going to sign a veteran CF and instead they get an under the radar guy that probably won't block Maverick but still will hold value as a 4th OF, love the Jarrod Dyson comparison.

 

I really am curious to what we do at 1B because unlike CF there is big gaping hole in the entire system now (one could argue there already was one post Lind trade), just like there was 2 years ago. We keep speculating that an OFer should move to 1B at the MLB level but it seems unlikely. I hope somebody at least moves to 1B in the system like Coulter or something, could fast track him.

[gregmag]

One thing that's going on in this discussion, and in this offseason generally, is a contrast and sometimes clash between two somewhat opposed strategies: the "buy and flip a veteran" strategy and the "revive a faded prospect" strategy.

 

Melvin didn't really do either of those things, because he wasn't rebuilding for most of his tenure and also because he is who he is. I don't actually think the Alvarez deal most people are proposing or supporting would be a Melvinesque move. A bad Melvinesque move would be to give a multi-year deal to somebody whose stock was slightly higher than Alvarez's stock seems to be. In fairness, a good Melvinesque move in exactly this situation was the Lind deal, which included flexibility but wasn't decidedly about flipping him. What most Alvarez-wishers are proposing is a one-year deal with flipping him as the decided goal.

 

That approach has benefits, but given the option (which we may or may not have with our current 1b situation) I'll almost always prefer the "revive a faded prospect" approach. In this case, I'd rather give up some assets (devil in the details, of course) for Jonathan Singleton, in the hope that he becomes a player we can actually use, than sign Alvarez for a year. On the other hand, Stearns has picked up a lot of faded prospects for revival already. Maybe doing a sign-and-flip at this point would be good way to diversify strategies.

[gregmag]

In his defense, one season of defensive stats is not enough to base any argument on. I think sometimes people are against analytics because they get used wrong. Using one season of defensive WAR as the basis for saying someone is a defensive liability isn't accurate analytically. It may not be right to deny the value of statistical analysis but it shouldn't be wrong to question if they are being used correctly.

I think the substance of what you're saying here is right and important. I don't think it fairly characterizes what this poster has been doing. But to focus on the right and important part, I love when people do what you're describing: carefully critique the way someone uses particular information to prove a particular point. That kind of critique can add a lot of value to the discussion.

[BallFour]

Melvin didn't really do either of those things, because he wasn't rebuilding for most of his tenure and also because he is who he is. I don't actually think the Alvarez deal most people are proposing or supporting would be a Melvinesque move. A bad Melvinesque move would be to give a multi-year deal to somebody whose stock was slightly higher than Alvarez's stock seems to be. In fairness, a good Melvinesque move in exactly this situation was the Lind deal, which included flexibility but wasn't decidedly about flipping him. What most Alvarez-wishers are proposing is a one-year deal with flipping him as the decided goal.

 

Signing Pedro Alvarez is exactly like signing Mark Reynolds.....like I said he has no value to rebuild especially if you watch him play defense at 1B. Like you stated, revive a prospect sounds better especially when weighing costs, especially if you don't have to give up a lot of assets to try to revive one and considering we are at practically ground zero of the rebuild.

[LouisEly]

It's funny, because I have used my eyes to see that Braun was a below average defensive outfielder, and thought maybe my eyes were deceiving me, but the metrics seem to back that up

What the non-stats crowd is saying (some more tactfully than others) is that metrics don't tell you that:

 

1) Last year was the first year that Braun played RF ever in his baseball career (possibly impacting the routes he took to go after balls), and

 

B) Braun had back problems last year (which might very well have hindered his ability to go after balls, dive after balls, etc.)

 

Can both of these two things change next year? If the answer is yes, then it's not definitive to say that he is a terrible RF. He might have been last year, but not necessarily moving forward.

[jerichoholicninja]

I like how a thread about a Jason Rodgers trade turned into a discussion about Braun's defense. But, whatever, I'll add my two cents.

 

Frankly, I don't care what the stats or eyes say about Braun's defense because he's not out there for his defense. His bat plays no matter how bad he is at whatever position they put him. The #1 priority should be playing him at the position that will keep him healthy. Having Ryan hurt kills this franchise whether they are trying to win games or trade him. Heck, the very best thing for the organization would be to tell Ryan to literally stand on first base and catch only balls that require minimal effort to catch. The team would lose more games and Ryan should stay healthy only having to move when he swings the bat.

[logan82]

It's funny, because I have used my eyes to see that Braun was a below average defensive outfielder, and thought maybe my eyes were deceiving me, but the metrics seem to back that up

What the non-stats crowd is saying (some more tactfully than others) is that metrics don't tell you that:

 

1) Last year was the first year that Braun played RF ever in his baseball career (possibly impacting the routes he took to go after balls), and

 

B) Braun had back problems last year (which might very well have hindered his ability to go after balls, dive after balls, etc.)

 

Can both of these two things change next year? If the answer is yes, then it's not definitive to say that he is a terrible RF. He might have been last year, but not necessarily moving forward.

I think we could have guessed he would be below average in LF last year and probably will be going forward. Not as bad as he was but still not good. He was below average in LF almost every single year he was there against a worse defensive peer group. I think we can safely say he will be below average in RF next year and every year from here out. He will get less and less athletic going forward and I wouldn't count on his back holding up for a full season ever again. His back and other core muscles have been a problem almost every single year for him.

[monty57]

I'm coming in late to the conversation. I was interested to see what Rogers would do this year, but I like this trade. It seems that Broxton for Rogers would be an even value trade, so getting a decent young pitching prospect thrown in seems to make this a good deal for the Brewers.

 

Broxton seems destined to be our opening day CF, and will get his chance to shine until Phillips is ready to take over. At this stage, it's impossible to know whether he'll then be flipped, or become a fourth OF.

 

This necessitates either Santana in AAA or a trade of Braun or Davis. No way Santana should be sitting on the MLB bench.

 

As to 1B, I'm sure Stearns has something in mind, and Alvarez doesn't seem to fit with what he's been doing so far. He seems to value defense , versatility and athleticism, none of which makes you think of Alvarez. I'd guess there is a target on a younger first baseman somewhere that will once again throw everyone for a loop.

 

This is certainly an interesting offseason.