Guess Miller Park's 2016 attendance [Latest: final attendance is 2,314,614]

[CheezWizHed]

Just out of curiosity, I looked up the attendance and records of every year since Miller Park opened. County Stadium peaked at 2.3 million (1983) and only topped 2M that one time. Average is just under 1.5M for the 31 years we used it.

 

 

2001: 2,811,040 68-94 -> Miller Park Opened

2002: 1,969,693 56-106

2003: 1,700,354 68-94

2004: 2,062,382 67-94

2005: 2,211,023 81-81

2006: 2,335,643 75-87

2007: 2,869,144 83-79

2008: 3,068,458 90-72

2009: 3,037,451 80-82

2010: 2,776,531 77-85

2011: 3,071,373 96-66

2012: 2,831,385 83-79

2013: 2,531,105 74-88

2014: 2,797,384 82-80

2015: 2,542,558 68-94

 

I have no doubt that we will drop in attendance but I would be surprised if we drop too drastically from the average (2.5M).

[And That]

Just out of curiosity, I looked up the attendance and records of every year since Miller Park opened. County Stadium peaked at 2.3 million (1983) and only topped 2M that one time. Average is just under 1.5M for the 31 years we used it.

 

 

2001: 2,811,040 68-94 -> Miller Park Opened

2002: 1,969,693 56-106

2003: 1,700,354 68-94

2004: 2,062,382 67-94

2005: 2,211,023 81-81

2006: 2,335,643 75-87

2007: 2,869,144 83-79

2008: 3,068,458 90-72

2009: 3,037,451 80-82

2010: 2,776,531 77-85

2011: 3,071,373 96-66

2012: 2,831,385 83-79

2013: 2,531,105 74-88

2014: 2,797,384 82-80

2015: 2,542,558 68-94

 

I have no doubt that we will drop in attendance but I would be surprised if we drop too drastically from the average (2.5M).

 

That's interesting, but I'm going to take it one more step, number of people in attendance per win:

 

2001: 41,339

2002: 35,173

2003: 25,005

2004: 30,782

2005: 27,297

2006: 31,142

2007: 34,568

2008: 34,094

2009: 37,968

2010: 36,059

2011: 31,993

2012: 34,113

2013: 34,204

2014: 34,114

2015: 37,391

 

That's an average of 33,683 people in attendance per Brewer season win, with a standard deviation of 3,950. Since Miller Park opened, the absolute value of the change in attendance from year to year has been within one standard deviation 10 of the 14 years, and within 2 standard deviations all but once, the 2002-2003 change.

 

So if you assume the Brewers are going to win 62 games next year (which is probably a few games low), I would put attendance at a bottom of the barrel minimum of 1.8 million, and probably closer to 2.1 million. If they win closer to 70, attendance will very likely be over 2 million, maybe closer to 2.3 million.

 

Edit: I split this off the Cheap 1B Options thread in the trade rumors forum. Thought it might be interesting to hear people's guesses on attendance next year.

[pitchleague]

I'll play. Do I win anything for being the closest without going over?

 

2,033,461

[brewtank34]

I'll play. Do I win anything for being the closest without going over?

 

2,033,461

 

This was my guess!

[jjkoestler]

2,304,456

[1992casey]

I'm going to be cautiously optimistic without getting scientific.

 

2,265,000

 

Unlike the last time the team bottomed out, the Brewers have good will going for them. There was a lot of fan frustration after Miller Park first opened.

[pacopete4]

2,244,747

 

Book it.

[logan82]

2,265,001

[Dragonbait]

2,295,002 - since they can't count my daughter since she doesn't buy a ticket (she's under 3)

[Outlander]

I think it will take the biggest hit since the Selig years of 20%, or 2,034,046. While I think many fans understand the rebuild, it is the first time in a long time where it is pretty much unanimous the team will stink and that will keep away some of the casual fans and the people that come because it is the thing to do. It will be interesting to hear the season ticket numbers.

[TURBO]

1,993,053

 

No big moves (name player additions) to the casual fan in the off season = poor attendance.

 

If Lucroy goes, I think this could dip even farther... The only players the casual fans will know are Braun and Lucroy, if either go, there will be attendance issues.

[bylo tesi me]

Brewers pitching and defense make them a lot more competitive than anyone expected, + Wisconsinites loving any excuse to tailgate on a warm summer day = 2,703,256

[sveumrules]

2,345,678.

 

With all due respects to the "All In" winter before the 2011 season, the last time I was this excited about a Brewers team in the winter was leading up to the 2005 season when it was looking like Weeks & Fielder were both set to debut the following summer. Should be lots of cheap tickets on the secondary market this year.

[stalton]

I think attendance will drop but not much. People will still want to see the up and comers and I think the PR staff does a good job of promotions (besides the million bobbleheads).

2,415,678

[And That]

I'm going to go with 2,340,870. The Brewers will, somewhat maddeningly, not be as bad as advertised and compile a win total in the low 70's. They will borrow from the Bucks' playbook a little and be successful marketing their younger talent (Arcia, Phillips, Lopez, etc) once they have a permanent place on the team later in the year. They would draw more, but there is still the hangover of last year's 68 win club.

 

This would also happen to be the lowest attendance total in 10 years.

[MrTPlush]

2,345,678

[Raw Biz]

2,474,859

[Bikeage77]

2,050,009

[reillymcshane]

2,242,062

 

I set my parameters between 2,100,000 and 2,499,999 and let my random dice generator give me the rest.

 

Let the dice gods decide.

[JohnBriggs12]

With Lucroy: 2,280,000

 

If Lucroy is traded: 1,875,000

 

A trade of Lucroy will be huge signal to fans, "Don't bother for at least 2 years" Old habits die hard but if they lose 100 games, they won't top 1.6 million in 2017. It will be extremely depressing and felt by those that do show up and see a stadium that's 2/3 empty every night.

[And That]

They drew 2 mil+ two years in a row (2004-2005) after consecutive 94 loss seasons (2003-2004). They drew nearly 2.8 mil in 2014 after an 88 loss season.

 

The evidence, albeit a relatively small sample thereof, would suggest a dip down to 1.6 mil in 2 years is quite unlikely.

[brewcrewdue80]

They drew over 2.5mil last season after essentially being out by the month of May. Now, they won't have a team unlike the prior seasons that you could argue can get to 81wins and that will cause fewer sales. I'd guess 2.2million somewhere in there would be the dropping point. The thing is, the team has far more depth in pitching that could spark some interest. The arrivals of Arcia, Phillips, Lopez depending when they are inserted on to the every day roster could also fill more seats. But then again, you may sickeningly watch Lucroy get traded and not have Arcia/Phillips service clock get started in 2016. Rather than maybe fill some seats when/if Phillips/Arcia get off to a fast start in their career.

 

Arcia/Phillips join the team in 2016: 2,261,160

Arcia/Phillips don't join the team: 2,106,061

[EagleSteve]

It will be close to 2 1/2 million. Maybe a bit shy. Cold beer, good food, fresh air & sunshine. Young players on the rise. A great ballpark. Reasonable prices.

[rickh150]

2.3 listed by the team (with the Bp freebies and no shows)

1.9 actually in attendance

[Baldkin]

There was hope going into last season. The listed attendance was upwards of 30k for many games in August/Sept, while the actual attendance was probably 15,000 for some of those weeknight games.

 

This year, the scalpers and season ticket holders won't be having that big of an effect.

 

I'd wager, 1,894,672.